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11-19-2024, 04:43 AM
SEC Conference Tie-Breakers:
1. Head-to-head record among tied teams**
2. Record vs. common opponents among tied teams**
3. Record against the highest place opponent among tied teams*
4. Combined winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams
*Tiebreakers 1 & 2 would not apply if there's a five or six way tie.
*Tiebreaker 3 has a less than 1% chance of applying if there's a five-way tie for 2nd place (convoluted, but trust me on this one)
There are six teams that still have a shot-- Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. Capsules on each team as things stand today:
Georgia:
Remaining games: vs. UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Conference Record: 6-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Texas & Tennessee
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama & Ole Miss
No remaining conference games. Both Texas A&M and Texas are 5-1, but will play one another, so at least one takes another loss. Probably in the best overall position because of the tiebreakers they own and the impossibility of them taking another conference loss. At worst, they'll be in the playoff.
Alabama:
Remaining games: @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
Conference Record: 4-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Georgia & South Carolina
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with Tennessee
Soft landing against severely under-performing teams who, despite being traditional powers, should come in as more than 10 point underdogs.
Texas:
Remaining games: vs. Kentucky, @Texas A&M
Conference Record: 5-1
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against no one of note-- highest rated teams so far are Vanderbilt and Oklahoma
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia
Outcome of their game against Kentucky is almost a given; outcome of their renewed rivalry with Texas A&M will determine their playoff seed. Have a hard time seeing them missing the playoffs unless they lose to both Kentucky and Texas A&M, which is pretty unlikely to happen.
Tennessee:
Remaining games: vs. UTEP, @Vanderbilt
Conference Record: 5-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia
Losing the tiebreaker with Georgia probably leaves them as (one of) the first team(s) out of the SEC Championship game, but they've locked in a playoff slot so long as they beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M doesn't cause complete chaos.
Texas A&M:
Remaining games: @Auburn, vs. Texas
Conference Record: 5-1
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against no one of note-- highest ranked teams are LSU, Missouri, and Florida
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with South Carolina
Beat Texas and they're very likely in the SEC Championship game and CFP. An early loss to Notre Dame will sting unless the Irish win out.
Ole Miss:
Remaining games: @Florida, vs. Mississippi State
Conference Record: 4-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Georgia
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with no one of note-- Kentucky and LSU are conference loses
This week's game at The Swamp won't be a cakewalk, as Florida has been playing better and doesn't have lots to lose. Mississippi State is terrible but will treat their trip to Oxford as a bowl game. I don't feel great about Kiffin winning out, and even if he were to do so, he's behind plenty of style points with a home loss to Kentucky and at LSU.
Best of the Rest:
South Carolina:
Remaining games: vs. Wofford, @Clemson
Conference Record: 5-3
Vanderbilt:
Remaining games: @LSU, vs. Tennessee
Conference Record: 3-3
LSU:
Remaining games: vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Oklahoma
Conference Record: 3-3
Missouri:
Remaining games: @Mississippi State, vs. Arkansas
Conference Record: 3-3
Florida:
Remaining games: vs. Ole Miss, @Florida State
Conference Record: 3-4
Arkansas:
Remaining games: vs. Louisiana Tech, @Missouri
Conference Record: 3-4
Oklahoma:
Remaining games: vs. Alabama, @LSU
Conference Record: 1-5
Auburn:
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M, @Alabama
Conference Record: 1-5
Mississippi State:
Remaining gamey's: vs. Missouri, @Ole Miss
Conference Record: 0-6
Kentucky:
Remaining games: @Texas, vs. Louisville
Conference Record: 1-6
Notes:
- Alabama has a great chance of making the SEC Championship game if they win out. They'd beat Georgia in the head-to-head and have a very solid strength of schedule.
- It goes without saying that the outcome of the Texas vs. Texas A&M game will have a huge say in who goes to the championship and/or ultimately gets bids to the playoff.
- An Oklahoma, Auburn, or Florida upset would be a huge spoiler for any of the top six and would drastically shift the metrics for tiebreakers.
- Despite a head-to-head win against Georgia, Ole Miss doesn't seem to be in a very good spot. They didn't play Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, or Tennessee, and have some bad losses. Haven't ran all the scenarios that they'd need to reach the championship, but would think it'd probably involve Tennessee beating Vanderbilt, Alabama taking another loss, and/or a specific outcome in the Texas/Texas A&M game. Based on their record, the only team you really feel good about them winning the tiebreaker against is Georgia.
1. Head-to-head record among tied teams**
2. Record vs. common opponents among tied teams**
3. Record against the highest place opponent among tied teams*
4. Combined winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams
*Tiebreakers 1 & 2 would not apply if there's a five or six way tie.
*Tiebreaker 3 has a less than 1% chance of applying if there's a five-way tie for 2nd place (convoluted, but trust me on this one)
There are six teams that still have a shot-- Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss. Capsules on each team as things stand today:
Georgia:
Remaining games: vs. UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Conference Record: 6-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Texas & Tennessee
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama & Ole Miss
No remaining conference games. Both Texas A&M and Texas are 5-1, but will play one another, so at least one takes another loss. Probably in the best overall position because of the tiebreakers they own and the impossibility of them taking another conference loss. At worst, they'll be in the playoff.
Alabama:
Remaining games: @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
Conference Record: 4-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Georgia & South Carolina
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with Tennessee
Soft landing against severely under-performing teams who, despite being traditional powers, should come in as more than 10 point underdogs.
Texas:
Remaining games: vs. Kentucky, @Texas A&M
Conference Record: 5-1
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against no one of note-- highest rated teams so far are Vanderbilt and Oklahoma
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia
Outcome of their game against Kentucky is almost a given; outcome of their renewed rivalry with Texas A&M will determine their playoff seed. Have a hard time seeing them missing the playoffs unless they lose to both Kentucky and Texas A&M, which is pretty unlikely to happen.
Tennessee:
Remaining games: vs. UTEP, @Vanderbilt
Conference Record: 5-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia
Losing the tiebreaker with Georgia probably leaves them as (one of) the first team(s) out of the SEC Championship game, but they've locked in a playoff slot so long as they beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M doesn't cause complete chaos.
Texas A&M:
Remaining games: @Auburn, vs. Texas
Conference Record: 5-1
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against no one of note-- highest ranked teams are LSU, Missouri, and Florida
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with South Carolina
Beat Texas and they're very likely in the SEC Championship game and CFP. An early loss to Notre Dame will sting unless the Irish win out.
Ole Miss:
Remaining games: @Florida, vs. Mississippi State
Conference Record: 4-2
Owns head-to-head tiebreaker against Georgia
Loses head-to-head tiebreaker with no one of note-- Kentucky and LSU are conference loses
This week's game at The Swamp won't be a cakewalk, as Florida has been playing better and doesn't have lots to lose. Mississippi State is terrible but will treat their trip to Oxford as a bowl game. I don't feel great about Kiffin winning out, and even if he were to do so, he's behind plenty of style points with a home loss to Kentucky and at LSU.
Best of the Rest:
South Carolina:
Remaining games: vs. Wofford, @Clemson
Conference Record: 5-3
Vanderbilt:
Remaining games: @LSU, vs. Tennessee
Conference Record: 3-3
LSU:
Remaining games: vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Oklahoma
Conference Record: 3-3
Missouri:
Remaining games: @Mississippi State, vs. Arkansas
Conference Record: 3-3
Florida:
Remaining games: vs. Ole Miss, @Florida State
Conference Record: 3-4
Arkansas:
Remaining games: vs. Louisiana Tech, @Missouri
Conference Record: 3-4
Oklahoma:
Remaining games: vs. Alabama, @LSU
Conference Record: 1-5
Auburn:
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M, @Alabama
Conference Record: 1-5
Mississippi State:
Remaining gamey's: vs. Missouri, @Ole Miss
Conference Record: 0-6
Kentucky:
Remaining games: @Texas, vs. Louisville
Conference Record: 1-6
Notes:
- Alabama has a great chance of making the SEC Championship game if they win out. They'd beat Georgia in the head-to-head and have a very solid strength of schedule.
- It goes without saying that the outcome of the Texas vs. Texas A&M game will have a huge say in who goes to the championship and/or ultimately gets bids to the playoff.
- An Oklahoma, Auburn, or Florida upset would be a huge spoiler for any of the top six and would drastically shift the metrics for tiebreakers.
- Despite a head-to-head win against Georgia, Ole Miss doesn't seem to be in a very good spot. They didn't play Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, or Tennessee, and have some bad losses. Haven't ran all the scenarios that they'd need to reach the championship, but would think it'd probably involve Tennessee beating Vanderbilt, Alabama taking another loss, and/or a specific outcome in the Texas/Texas A&M game. Based on their record, the only team you really feel good about them winning the tiebreaker against is Georgia.
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11-19-2024, 07:19 PM
(11-19-2024, 04:40 PM)King Kong Wrote: Is the SEC conference championship the #1 in the East vs the #1in the west?
Or is it the top two teams regardless of division?
Can't remember if they changed things.
Top two regardless of division.
The SEC isn't tracking divisional records this season.
It looks like we're headed for some convoluted tiebreakers.
There's a real possibility that the outcome of an otherwise trivial game in the final week like LSU/Oklahoma or Missouri/Arkansas decides who plays in the SEC Championship game.
11-19-2024, 09:20 PM
(11-19-2024, 07:19 PM)Cactus Jack Wrote:Thanks for the clarification on that CJ(11-19-2024, 04:40 PM)King Kong Wrote: Is the SEC conference championship the #1 in the East vs the #1in the west?
Or is it the top two teams regardless of division?
Can't remember if they changed things.
Top two regardless of division.
The SEC isn't tracking divisional records this season.
It looks like we're headed for some convoluted tiebreakers.
There's a real possibility that the outcome of an otherwise trivial game in the final week like LSU/Oklahoma or Missouri/Arkansas decides who plays in the SEC Championship game.
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