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2024 Presidential Election Electoral Vote Predictions
(10-24-2024, 09:05 AM)SEKYFAN Wrote: Harris 286
Trump 252
You might not be far off there.    I have an inclination(might be wrong, but just a feeling), that she's gonna win, and do so by a fairly comfortable margin. Democrats are crushing it in early voting in some of the key swing states. When I checked a couple of days ago, Democrats had outvoted Republicans  by over 30% in Pennsylvania. The Dems are voting in big numbers in early voting. That's a good sign for Harris. It all comes down to voter turnout. If turnout is extremely heavy(both early and on election day) , then Harris wins. If voters don't turn out, she could be in trouble. Signs seem to be trending towards a very high turnout. That why a big part of Republicans' playbook is to suppress the vote. They understand that they can only win if certain demographics don't go to the polls. Hence, they do everything they can to keep certain voters from the polls.

(10-24-2024, 11:15 AM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: During a CNN Town Hall meeting yesterday, Kamala Harris criticized Donald Trump for not getting the southern border wall built during his first term. She is now promising to get the wall built. You really cannot make this stuff up.

(10-24-2024, 12:39 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: Straight from Biden-Harris DOJ. Virginia is not systematically removing people from the voting rolls. They are removing people who said the were non-citizens. I can look up the DOJ's excuses for fighting efforts to prevent illegals from voting myself. You sound like a trained parrot. Trump is Hitler. Trump is a fascist. Kamala says it and you repeat it with no regard for the truth.

Alabama removed 3200 from their rolls, then had to add over 60% of them back on due to the fact that they were indeed citizens.  I can understand why they want to remove non-citizens, but why wait until it's too late to investigate to see if it's accurate or not.  The only reason I can think of is voter suppression.
(10-24-2024, 04:49 PM)SEKYFAN Wrote:
(10-24-2024, 11:15 AM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: During a CNN Town Hall meeting yesterday, Kamala Harris criticized Donald Trump for not getting the southern border wall built during his first term. She is now promising to get the wall built. You really cannot make this stuff up.

(10-24-2024, 12:39 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: Straight from Biden-Harris DOJ. Virginia is not systematically removing people from the voting rolls. They are removing people who said the were non-citizens. I can look up the DOJ's excuses for fighting efforts to prevent illegals from voting myself. You sound like a trained parrot. Trump is Hitler. Trump is a fascist. Kamala says it and you repeat it with no regard for the truth.

Alabama removed 3200 from their rolls, then had to add over 60% of them back on due to the fact that they were indeed citizens.  I can understand why they want to remove non-citizens, but why wait until it's too late to investigate to see if it's accurate or not.  The only reason I can think of is voter suppression.
Virginia allows 14 days after removal for the person to provide proof of citizenship. Even if they miss that deadline, they can show up at the pills and cast provisional ballots. If they are citizens, then their votes will get counted. It is understandable that some people are going to check the wrong box inadvertently or they are not citizens and are registered due to a human error. Nobody is trying to suppress the votes of American citizens in Virginia.
The MAGA Party don't want people to vote if it was easy to vote they would never win a presidential election again. Virginia had 4 years to clean their voter rolls up, but they waited less than 2 months before election.
Which is illegal by federal law.

(10-24-2024, 04:58 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote:
(10-24-2024, 04:49 PM)SEKYFAN Wrote:
(10-24-2024, 11:15 AM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: During a CNN Town Hall meeting yesterday, Kamala Harris criticized Donald Trump for not getting the southern border wall built during his first term. She is now promising to get the wall built. You really cannot make this stuff up.

(10-24-2024, 12:39 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: Straight from Biden-Harris DOJ. Virginia is not systematically removing people from the voting rolls. They are removing people who said the were non-citizens. I can look up the DOJ's excuses for fighting efforts to prevent illegals from voting myself. You sound like a trained parrot. Trump is Hitler. Trump is a fascist. Kamala says it and you repeat it with no regard for the truth.

Alabama removed 3200 from their rolls, then had to add over 60% of them back on due to the fact that they were indeed citizens.  I can understand why they want to remove non-citizens, but why wait until it's too late to investigate to see if it's accurate or not.  The only reason I can think of is voter suppression.
Virginia allows 14 days after removal for the person to provide proof of citizenship. Even if they miss that deadline, they can show up at the pills and cast provisional ballots. If they are citizens, then their votes will get counted. It is understandable that some people are going to check the wrong box inadvertently or they are not citizens and are registered due to a human error. Nobody is trying to suppress the votes of American citizens in Virginia.
polls not pills Hoot
(10-24-2024, 05:48 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote: The MAGA Party don't want people to vote if it was easy to vote they would never win a presidential election again. Virginia had 4 years to clean their voter rolls up, but they waited less than 2 months before election.
Which is illegal by federal law.

(10-24-2024, 04:58 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote:
(10-24-2024, 04:49 PM)SEKYFAN Wrote:
(10-24-2024, 11:15 AM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: During a CNN Town Hall meeting yesterday, Kamala Harris criticized Donald Trump for not getting the southern border wall built during his first term. She is now promising to get the wall built. You really cannot make this stuff up.

(10-24-2024, 12:39 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: Straight from Biden-Harris DOJ. Virginia is not systematically removing people from the voting rolls. They are removing people who said the were non-citizens. I can look up the DOJ's excuses for fighting efforts to prevent illegals from voting myself. You sound like a trained parrot. Trump is Hitler. Trump is a fascist. Kamala says it and you repeat it with no regard for the truth.

Alabama removed 3200 from their rolls, then had to add over 60% of them back on due to the fact that they were indeed citizens.  I can understand why they want to remove non-citizens, but why wait until it's too late to investigate to see if it's accurate or not.  The only reason I can think of is voter suppression.
Virginia allows 14 days after removal for the person to provide proof of citizenship. Even if they miss that deadline, they can show up at the pills and cast provisional ballots. If they are citizens, then their votes will get counted. It is understandable that some people are going to check the wrong box inadvertently or they are not citizens and are registered due to a human error. Nobody is trying to suppress the votes of American citizens in Virginia.
polls not pills Hoot
Great to see that you are checking somebody's spelling. 

DOJ never had a problem when Democrats removed people who had admitted to being non-citizens. This dispute will probably be decided in court. Virginia says they are not systematically revving voters from the rolls. Biden's DOJ harasses states with Republican governors every election cycle. Democrats oppose photo IDs and every Republican attempt to prevent illegals from voting.

Simple question, vector. Do you believe non-citizens should be allowed to vote? Are you for or against common sense?
This morning, the New York Times/Sienna poll shows Trump and Harris tied nationally. The RCP average now has the two candidates tied. That is not good news for Kamala. More bad news for her is that her lead in the WHDH-TV/Emerson New Hampshire poll has her lead at only 3 points, which is within the margin of error for the poll. 

Republican candidate, Kelly Ayotte, leads in today's poll by 3 points, which combined with the shrinking Harris lead in New Hampshire, indicates that Trump has a pretty good chance of upsetting Harris in the state.
With Kamal Harris getting heckled at her own rallies and having to use celebrities and bait and switch tactics to boost attendance, the momentum continues to favor Trump. Kamala's latest disaster was advertising that Beyonce would be at her rally in Houston. A large crowd showed up to watch Beyonce's performance, but Beyonce spoke for a total of 4 minutes and there was no performance. Many in the crowd started booing Kamala as she tried to speak and headed for the exit.

If people show up for a political event expecting free entertainment, then there better be some free entertainment. What a disaster! Kamala has no chance to carry Texas and her appearance did nothing to boost Allred's chances of beating Ted Cruz in the Senate race.

I am upping my prediction of a Trump win in the EC to:

Trump 312
Harris 226

If Harris's campaign continues to self-destruct, the margin could be even worse. Dukakis ran a better campaign than Kamala is running. Her poor campaign is probably going to cost Democrats the Senate and the White House.
I'm watching a Trump rally live from a sold out Madison Square Garden. There is a large crowd outside watching on a large screen. So far, no celebrities and no hecklers. NYC Mayor Adams chastised people earlier for calling Trump a fascist and comparing him to Hitler.

I also watched an interview of Pennsylvania Senator John Fedderman this morning. He talked about how amazing the enthusiastic support of Trump is around his state is. Fedderman seems like a decent guy, despite being a liberal. That is rare.

Trump appears to be expanding the electoral map, with campaign events schedule in New Mexico and Virginia. Kamala will not be able to match Trump's hectic campaign schedule during the closing days of the campaign.
Just a little over a month ago, Five Thirty-Eight had it 300 to 238 in favor of Harris. Now, they have Trump winning 277 to 261. I still feel like the winner of the Keystone State will be the next President. Dems have crushed it in early voting there, so we'll see. I look for a very high turnout, which favors Dems. I'm gonna say Harris edges Trump in PA, and takes the presidency. Might be wishful thinking but it's what I've said for eight months, so I'm sticking with it.
The Maga crowd have no problem in suppressing the vote.  A lot of the Maga crowd yearns for the good old days of the 60's, back when there were such things as Poll Taxes and Vouchers for certain Americans to be able to vote. Confused
(10-27-2024, 08:49 PM)SEKYFAN Wrote: The Maga crowd have no problem in suppressing the vote.  A lot of the Maga crowd yearns for the good old days of the 60's, back when there were such things as Poll Taxes and Vouchers for certain Americans to be able to vote. Confused
You might as well save those bogus allegations for 2028 because voters have seen through them in this campaign. You should start accepting the fact that this election is probably going to go very badly for Kamala. Some Democrats running for reelection are already making the case that they will be able to work with Trump if he is elected. They see the writing on the wall. If you don't see the writing, then you will soon.

IMO, this Trump campaign is the easily his best. Kamala is making him look very good.
Polls released today have Trump up by one point in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin; and Harris up by only 2 points in Virginia.

I don't think Trump will win Virginia, but it is close enough that Kamala will have to spend some time here campaigning. Trump had already announced that he will be in Virginia next weekend. 

With Trump planning campaign stops in New Mexico, Virginia, and maybe New Hampshire, he is forcing Kamala to work much harder than she normally works. She cannot afford to lose Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, so the last thing she wants to be doing next week is campaign in states that she thought she had already locked up.
The MAGA party has already stolen this election
(10-28-2024, 07:17 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote: The MAGA party has already stolen this election
MAGA Nuts!  MAGA Nuts!  You're back! I don't have to face this MAGA world alone!

Btw, election's not over, yet. Can Madame Vice-President win PA? If she does, I think she'll be Hoot's next president.
(10-28-2024, 08:00 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(10-28-2024, 07:17 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote: The MAGA party has already stolen this election
MAGA Nuts!  MAGA Nuts!  You're back! I don't have to face this MAGA world alone!

Btw, election's not over, yet. Can Madame Vice-President win PA? If she does, I think she'll be Hoot's next president.
I think the Puerto Rico slur just might put her over the top in Pennsylvania I think it's over a half a million voters the MAGA King insulated. I was suspended by the BGR Police, but I am back.
(10-28-2024, 09:14 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote:
(10-28-2024, 08:00 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(10-28-2024, 07:17 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote: The MAGA party has already stolen this election
MAGA Nuts!  MAGA Nuts!  You're back! I don't have to face this MAGA world alone!

Btw, election's not over, yet. Can Madame Vice-President win PA? If she does, I think she'll be Hoot's next president.
I think the Puerto Rico slur just might put her over the top in Pennsylvania I think it's over a half a million voters the MAGA King insulated. I was suspended by the BGR Police, but I am back.

BGR, please don't take away my MAGA Nuts!!!   I'm lonely without my MAGA Nuts. 

Orange Dictator's Puerto Rican Problem

Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania.

Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.


Read more...


https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/28...t-00185935


Remember where you read it--- The winner of PA wins the election !!! ---OSH
There's a whole lot of wishful thinking going on here. The numbers are pointing towards a big Trump win. The Trump is Hitler slur is all Kamala has left. 

They are keeping Biden away from Harris so he won't remind people of what a mess they have made of the country, but Kamala is a big enough reminder.
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls

Is honest and trustworthy:
Harris 43% (+15)
Trump 28%
.
Has the mental sharpness it takes
to serve effectively as president
Harris 49% (+11)
Trump 38%
.
Is in good enough physical health
to serve effectively as president:
Harris 58% (+29)
Trump 29%
.
Represents your personal values:
Harris 43% (+8)
Trump 35%
.
Understands the problems of
people like you:
Harris 43% (+10)
Trump 33%
.
Can be trusted in a crisis
Harris 43% (+2)
Trump 41%

@Ipsos/ @abc, 2,392 RV, 10/18-22
(10-29-2024, 03:26 AM)Old School Hound Wrote: Political Polls
@Politics_Polls

Is honest and trustworthy:
Harris 43% (+15)
Trump 28%
.
Has the mental sharpness it takes
to serve effectively as president
Harris 49% (+11)
Trump 38%
.
Is in good enough physical health
to serve effectively as president:
Harris 58% (+29)
Trump 29%
.
Represents your personal values:
Harris 43% (+8)
Trump 35%
.
Understands the problems of
people like you:
Harris 43% (+10)
Trump 33%
.
Can be trusted in a crisis
Harris 43% (+2)
Trump 41%

@Ipsos/ @abc, 2,392 RV, 10/18-22
Not bad for a losing candidate. Too bad for her that ABC had one of the worst accuracy ratings in 2020, with all errors being in Biden's favor.
Many major U.S. newspapers, including the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times have decided not to endorse either Harris or Trump for this election. That is a flag of truce signaling the next POTUS that they intend to be less biased in their coverage following the election. It's a clear signal that they don't believe endorsing Harris would change the inevitable result.
The Wahington Post and the Los Angeles Times are both owned by billionaires who have benefited greatly from Trumps tax giveaway. But it just might be the end of the Washington Post. Bezos has so much money the end of the Post will not hurt him.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...27f6&ei=51

Which the endorsements don't have the pull they use to have any more lot of the MAGA voters get their news from social media anymore. That's why they still believe Trump won the 2020 election.
What a brilliant analysis. The Washington Post and Los Angeles times are MAGA papers refusing to endorse the worst presidential candidate in American history as a payback for a tax cut by Trump. Simpleton brilliant!
(10-29-2024, 01:05 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: What a brilliant analysis. The Washington Post and Los Angeles times are MAGA papers refusing to endorse the worst presidential candidate in American history as a payback for a tax cut by Trump. Simpleton brilliant!


I've always loved election night. From the time I was just a young kid, I couldn't wait until election night and watch the results with my grandparents. The first one I can remember being very engaged in was the Nixon -McGovern race in '72. I LOVE election night. We always had a winner back then, usually before all the West Coast state results were in. Concession speeches were usually mid evening. Now, it seems, we have to wait days to have a winner announced.

Did you always enjoy following politics, Hoot?
Well looks like the MAGA King staged employment at McDonald's has backfired after clocking out a bad case of e coil broke out looks like the MAGA King didn't wash his hands after grabbing all those women by the crotch.
(10-29-2024, 01:17 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote: Well looks like the MAGA King staged employment at McDonald's has backfired after clocking out a bad case of e coil broke out looks like the MAGA King didn't wash his hands after grabbing all those women by the crotch.
Big Grin

Top 5 post in history of BGR.  That's funny, I don't care who ya are.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
(10-29-2024, 01:17 PM)Maga Nuts Wrote: Well looks like the MAGA King staged employment at McDonald's has backfired after clocking out a bad case of e coil broke out looks like the MAGA King didn't wash his hands after grabbing all those women by the crotch.
Every crotch he grabs earns him ten more Republican votes.
(10-29-2024, 01:13 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(10-29-2024, 01:05 PM)Hoot Gibson Wrote: What a brilliant analysis. The Washington Post and Los Angeles times are MAGA papers refusing to endorse the worst presidential candidate in American history as a payback for a tax cut by Trump. Simpleton brilliant!


I've always loved election night. From the time I was just a young kid, I couldn't wait until election night and watch the results with my grandparents. The first one I can remember being very engaged in was the Nixon -McGovern race in '72. I LOVE election night. We always had a winner back then, usually before all the West Coast state results were in. Concession speeches were usually mid evening. Now, it seems, we have to wait days to have a winner announced.

Did you always enjoy following politics, Hoot?
I have a vague recollection of the Kennedy assassination, but I was too young to be "following" politics. I also remember following the Watergate story because it was on all three networks and there was not much choice if you watched any TV. I probably started following politics closely during the Carter administration because his stupid liberal policies and total incompetence impacted my life directly through high gas prices, shortages, and gas station closures on Sundays. As a young driver, when gas prices started doubling and tripling, Democrats began making very negative impressions on me in my teenage years. I started following news and politics very closely as a U.K. student following the Iranian hostage taking, the mullahs' overthrow of the Shah, and the embarrassing mishandling of multiple crises by Jimmy Carter.
Another day, another very bad Kamala campaign event. She reminded undecided voters that she has been a member of this incompetent, authoritarian administration by delivering a meandering speech in the shadow of the White House. In case any of the undecided voters missed that symbolism, imbecilic President Biden called Trump supporters "garbage." Republicans could not have had a better night if they had scripted Kamala's event.

My prediction of 312 electoral votes for Trump is beginning to look conservative.
The Supreme Court has ruled against the Biden-Harris Justice Departments attempt to force Virginia to keep people who have self-identified as non-citizens on the voter roles. (The three liberal Justices voted to keep non-citizens on the rolls.)
(10-27-2024, 08:49 PM)SEKYFAN Wrote: The Maga crowd have no problem in suppressing the vote.  A lot of the Maga crowd yearns for the good old days of the 60's, back when there were such things as Poll Taxes and Vouchers for certain Americans to be able to vote. Confused
I yearn for a lot of things from the 60s.  Gas prices,  food prices,  price of building materials,  good job opportunities,  you knew your neighbors and family.  Some good times right there  Wink

If the polls are showing Trump behind,  then I like his chances.  I don't like the polls nor do I trust them.  To me the polls,  surveys,  are a waste of time. Especially when it comes to politics. 

I'm going to touch on something Maga Nuts,  said earlier,  I agree with.  If most of the country's population voted,  Republicans may never win again.  That's going by the popular vote.  Like it or hate it,  the electoral college, is the only thing that gives us a shot.  Way more people are registered democrats.  I honestly believe,  if we ever do away with the electoral college,  us Republicans are screwed!

Democrats also register dead people to vote!  Along with alien's from other planets,  big foots,  birds,  deer, turkey,  squirrel,  grasshoppers,  probably why some of us had a yellow jacket apocalypse this year! Dems felt like they needed the extra votes!

I was just goofing off on that last paragraph  Smile Tongue
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