[Buffs19]

Obviously, this will all be sorted out on the field, but we all come here for the commentary and opinions. To me, Campbellsville belongs in the conversation with Pikeville and Raceland. They're playing nearly the exact same schedule as last year (Whitley Co. instead of Western) and they came this close from knocking off Pikeville in the semis. Did the home field advantage help, I'm sure. But they were down 21-0 in that game and came all the way back to tie it up before eventually falling 28-21.

Now, last year's version of the Eagles had some dudes that could physically match up with Pikeville and Raceland; specifically, Forbis, Colvin, and most notably, Keondre Weathers. That dude was special. One of the more gifted defensive linemen I've seen in Class A in a long time. Those guys are gone. Can Campbellsville replace their size, speed, and physicality on the field, I have no idea. But those were the types of guys that could knock heads with Pikeville and Raceland. Eastridge is a great QB, that cannot be overstated. Watson appears to be a great player. They also have speed at the WR position. But anyone that follows Class A football knows Pikeville and Raceland have been leading the charge because of their physicality up front on both sides of the ball. Championships are won at the OL and DL positions. Does Campbellsville have the guys this year up front to battle for 4 quarters? We know Pikeville and Raceland have been battled-tested in those areas this year with the schedules they've played. If Campbellsville is able to match them up front, they can certainly compete and have a chance to win it all.

[jetpilot]

Pikeville and Raceland both schedule games that in all probability they're going to lose. Campbellsville doesn't. If Campbellsville had done that last year they may have beat Pikeville in the finals?? I don't have a problem ranking them at the one. Most polls reward undefeated teams. But, whatever level they're playing at now would not be as high if they had played better teams, even if it means a loss and an RPI hit. In my opinion you shouldn't punish Pikeville and Raceland for losing the games they should lose. They did it to make themselves better. If Campbellsville  wins 1A that's fine by me...but... they would be better equipped to do so if they played a tougher schedule.

Do you really think that Campbellsville expected that Whitley County and Somerset would be easy wins? I'm guessing that they expected those games to be competitive.

As I said in an earlier post, I expect Pikeville to win another state title in the playoffs. I don't see polls as rewarding or punishing schools over their schedules. The RPI does that. Campbellsville has played well enough that neither Pikeville nor Raceland are going into a game with them and assuming that they will walk out with a win.

I agree that it is better to take a hit to the RPI by playing and losing some games on a tough schedule, than it is to schedule to not lose a game. But a team can't have it both ways, schedule tough competition to prepare for the playoffs and stay atop meaningless polls after a string of regular season losses.

I don't know much about Whitley or Somerset so I couldn't tell you what Campbellsville was thinking...but...they're not Ashland, Highlands, LCA, Johnson Central, Corbin, or Ironton, Ohio. Raceland and Pikeville both know that in a good season they may beat one or two of these type of teams but they also stand a good chance to lose all of them. I think we're pretty much on the same page and just splitting hairs here. Polls and RPI reward wins, polls do it unofficially and RPI does it mathematically. My subjective opinion is that Raceland and Pikeville are both better than Campbellsville, which again, and we agree, means nothing. If Campbellsville wins it all then keep it rolling so guys like us can have fun "making much ado about nothing".

At some point, when you play a tough schedule, you have to win a game in which you are an underdog because losing takes a toll on a team. I am sure that Pikeville did not expect to lose to every strong team on their schedule when that schedule was made. Pikeville will not have any real momentum until they have beaten a couple of good teams, and I am not sure that Raceland qualifies. They can win the 1A state title, but entering the playoffs with a couple of wins against good teams would have made it easier.

Dang Hoot you seem to enjoy making multiple posts pointing out Pikeville has losses.
The coaches and players know what it takes to win championships. In fact, nobody on the team has ever not been state champs at Pikeville. They don't need psychoanalysis of their mindset from you, with all due respect of course.
The goal is to get better every week and they are doing that. They also need to get healthy and have several more weeks to do so. Let's trust the coaches, players and system and see who's still playing at Thanksgiving and beyond.

[Hoot Gibson]

Thanks for your advice on what my opinions should be, but I am perfectly capable of expressing my opinions without external guidance.

[jetpilot]

Never offered any advice on opinions

[dodger]

Never offered any advice on opinions

Wouldn’t dramatically change Campbellsville’s strength of schedule this year since the Jackets aren’t where they were in the mid-2010s, but heard they’ve turned Williamsburg down multiple times in scheduling since the schools went into different districts.  Game makes a ton of sense for both programs.  Similar college town communities, solid teams that occasionally rise to contender status, unlikely to play in postseason, good for RPI, and reasonably easy travel.

[Belichick]

Obviously, this will all be sorted out on the field, but we all come here for the commentary and opinions.  To me, Campbellsville belongs in the conversation with Pikeville and Raceland.  They're playing nearly the exact same schedule as last year (Whitley Co. instead of Western) and they came this close from knocking off Pikeville in the semis.  Did the home field advantage help, I'm sure.  But they were down 21-0 in that game and came all the way back to tie it up before eventually falling 28-21. 

Now, last year's version of the Eagles had some dudes that could physically match up with Pikeville and Raceland; specifically, Forbis, Colvin, and most notably, Keondre Weathers.  That dude was special.  One of the more gifted defensive linemen I've seen in Class A in a long time.  Those guys are gone.  Can Campbellsville replace their size, speed, and physicality on the field, I have no idea.  But those were the types of guys that could knock heads with Pikeville and Raceland.  Eastridge is a great QB, that cannot be overstated.  Watson appears to be a great player.  They also have speed at the WR position.  But anyone that follows Class A football knows Pikeville and Raceland have been leading the charge because of their physicality up front on both sides of the ball.  Championships are won at the OL and DL positions.  Does Campbellsville have the guys this year up front to battle for 4 quarters?  We know Pikeville and Raceland have been battled-tested in those areas this year with the schedules they've played.  If Campbellsville is able to match them up front, they can certainly compete and have a chance to win it all.

Campbellsville never tied that game.  They were down 21-0. Made it 21-14 and Pikeville scored again to make it 28-14.  Eagles scored to make it 28-21.  Game ended with Pikeville kneeling it out inside the Campbellsville 10. Eagles were the 2nd best team in 1A last year. I haven’t gotten to watch them enough this year but they look good again in the game I watched against a bad team. But, if they haven’t improved over last year, expect a repeat of last years game no matter where it’s played given both teams are healthy.

[ArmChairHC]

I was looking at the RPI and after everything is said and done, unless somehow Raceland and Pikeville were to completely fall apart one Friday night and lose a district game OR somehow Raceland were to beat LCA OR Pikeville somehow lose to Boyd, these two teams will be in the road starting in the 2nd round. That’s if everything plays out “straight ticket” in the other districts as well. I think Sayre, Bethlehem, Newport, or Bishop Brossart play the roll if KCD this year. KCD looked great on paper last year but they were not very good and unless Sayre found a way to stop 400 yards rushing they won’t go much further than they did last year.

[Hoot Gibson]

I was looking at the RPI and after everything is said and done, unless somehow Raceland and Pikeville were to completely fall apart one Friday night and lose a district game OR somehow Raceland were to beat LCA OR Pikeville somehow lose to Boyd, these two teams will be in the road starting in the 2nd round. That’s if everything plays out “straight ticket” in the other districts as well. I think Sayre, Bethlehem, Newport, or Bishop Brossart play the roll if KCD this year. KCD looked great on paper last year but they were not very good and unless Sayre found a way to stop 400 yards rushing they won’t go much further than they did last year.

It is not hard to imagine Pikeville "somehow" losing to Boyd County. If they get caught looking ahead, then they could easily see themselves on the short end of the score. Pikeville should win that game, but Boyd has some athletes and is well coached. A Boyd County upset of Pikeville is more likely than LCA losing to Raceland, IMO. 

(I expect Pikeville to beat Hazard and BC convincingly and go on to win another title.)

[jetpilot]

LCA will demolish Raceland and Pikeville will beat Boyd easily like they did last year. Maybe not as bad as 39-15 but comfortably

[jetpilot]

Pikeville 459 yards Boyd 154 last year and called off the dogs so yes a loss to Boyd is very hard to imagine

[Belichick]

Neither Pikeville nor Raceland in all likelihood will play on the road the first two weeks of the playoffs regardless of their RPI. Unless it changed again, cross district games take place weeks 1&2 of the playoffs and since both teams likely win their respective districts, their first two games would be running clock games at home. 3rd round is when it could get interesting. Sayre and Campbellsville will probably go undefeated unless the Eagles lose to Hart County which is a real possibility. Either way, those two are going to be ranked 1&2 in the RPI. Pikeville should win out and with their strength of schedule, their RPI will continue to make big jumps each week until the end of the season if they take care of business. Raceland likely loses to LCA the last week of the season but has 3 more wins coming also. Panthers and Rams could end up playing each other the 3rd round or may avoid each other until the state finals depending on how the RPI shakes out and who’s left for the quarters and semis. Hazard is also in the East and so either Raceland or Pikeville likely end up playing the Bulldogs in the 3rd round at home unless Williamsburg beats Hazard in round 2. Campbellsville has easy path until the semifinals but will likely get Pikeville or Raceland at home for the semifinals and a good chance the other will await the winner of that game in the finals after steamrolling Sayre in the opposite semifinal.

[Bluecat]

Neither Pikeville nor Raceland in all likelihood will play on the road the first two weeks of the playoffs regardless of their RPI. Unless it changed again, cross district games take place weeks 1&2 of the playoffs and since both teams likely win their respective districts, their first two games would be running clock games at home.  3rd round is when it could get interesting.  Sayre and Campbellsville will probably go undefeated unless the Eagles lose to Hart County which is a real possibility.  Either way, those two are going to be ranked 1&2 in the RPI. Pikeville should win out and with their strength of schedule, their RPI will continue to make big jumps each week until the end of the season if they take care of business. Raceland likely loses to LCA the last week of the season but has 3 more wins coming also. Panthers and Rams could end up playing each other the 3rd round or may avoid each other until the state finals depending on how the RPI shakes out and who’s left for the quarters and semis.  Hazard is also in the East and so either Raceland or Pikeville likely end up playing the Bulldogs in the 3rd round at home unless Williamsburg beats Hazard in round 2.  Campbellsville has easy path until the semifinals but will likely get Pikeville or Raceland at home for the semifinals and a good chance the other will await the winner of that game in the finals after steamrolling Sayre in the opposite semifinal.

Could Hazard end up dropping below Pikeville and Raceland causing them to travel to Sayre possibly in the 3rd round and Raceland/Pikeville playing each other 3rd round? That would shake some things up.

[Hoot Gibson]

Pikeville 459 yards Boyd 154 last year and called off the dogs so yes a loss to Boyd is very hard to imagine

I remember a loss to Hazard a few years ago that was hard to imagine. Last year, Pikeville shut out Johnson Central in the second half and held them to 14 points. Last season was last season. Boyd County is better than they were last season. I am not sure that the same is true of Pikeville. Aside from Elam, Holbrook is probably the best quarterback that Johnson Central has faced this season.

[jetpilot]

Hard to tell if Pikeville can pass Raceland with Pikeville winning out and Raceland losing to LCA

[jetpilot]

Pikeville 459 yards Boyd 154 last year and called off the dogs so yes a loss to Boyd is very hard to imagine

I remember a loss to Hazard a few years ago that was hard to imagine. Last year, Pikeville shut out Johnson Central in the second half and held them to 14 points. Last season was last season. Boyd County is better than they were last season. I am not sure that the same is true of Pikeville. Aside from Elam, Holbrook is probably the best quarterback that Johnson Central has faced this seas

Pikeville faced Holbrook last year at Boyd. 
I didn't say Pikeville couldn't lose to Boyd I just said it is hard to imagine, which is the case.

[Buffs19]

First off, thanks to Belichick for the correction regarding the Pikeville-Campbellsville game from last year. He's correct, the game was never tied. That was my bad.

Secondly, I think the most likely scenario in terms of the RPI in the East is 1. Sayre, 2. Raceland, 3. Hazard, 4. Pikeville. Now, that's assuming all 4 advance to the third round. If there's an upset in the first 2 rounds like there was in 2020, then throw all predictions out the window. We know Sayre will be the 1 seed. Raceland will probably end up 6-4 and the 2 seed. Pikeville will probably end up 5-5. The issue will be how Hazard finishes its season against Clay County. If Hazard wins, they'll be 6-4 with a 3A win to finish the season, likely resulting in them finishing above Pikeville in the RPI. If Hazard loses to Clay County, Pikeville could finish as the 3 seed. That being said, Pikeville has nobody to blame but themselves. Yes, they put together an incredibly difficult schedule, but the RPI heavily rewards victories. So, Pikeville's winning percentage is going to be abnormally low given its prediction of 5 wins. Had they found a way to win a game vs LCA, Belfry, or Ironton, they would probably be locked in as the 2 seed in the East. But they didn't, so their road to a potential 4-peat will be, well, on the road. Now, I'm in no way guaranteeing a Pikeville win vs Hazard or Boyd County. Both of those teams are more than equipped to beat this year's version of the Panthers. But if Pikeville puts up the type of fight we saw against Ironton, then their chances of winning those last two games are higher than we may have all imagined a month ago. Long story short, as long as Pikeville advances, they will be on the road starting in the third round, at either Sayre or Raceland.

As far as the West goes, Campbellsville should have no problems advancing to the semis. As the season stands today, my prediction for the other team out West to advance to the semis would be NCC. Depending on how the Thoroughbreds finish their season, they could end up the 2 or 3 seed in the semis.

My prediction for the semis as of today:

1. Pikeville at Campbellsville
2. Raceland at NCC

But the beauty with football, this will be decided on the field, and we all get to sit back and enjoy the ride.

[Orange Blaze]

First off, thanks to Belichick for the correction regarding the Pikeville-Campbellsville game from last year.  He's correct, the game was never tied.  That was my bad.

Secondly, I think the most likely scenario in terms of the RPI in the East is 1. Sayre, 2. Raceland, 3. Hazard, 4. Pikeville.  Now, that's assuming all 4 advance to the third round.  If there's an upset in the first 2 rounds like there was in 2020, then throw all predictions out the window.  We know Sayre will be the 1 seed.  Raceland will probably end up 6-4 and the 2 seed.  Pikeville will probably end up 5-5.  The issue will be how Hazard finishes its season against Clay County.  If Hazard wins, they'll be 6-4 with a 3A win to finish the season, likely resulting in them finishing above Pikeville in the RPI.  If Hazard loses to Clay County, Pikeville could finish as the 3 seed.  That being said, Pikeville has nobody to blame but themselves.  Yes, they put together an incredibly difficult schedule, but the RPI heavily rewards victories.  So, Pikeville's winning percentage is going to be abnormally low given its prediction of 5 wins.  Had they found a way to win a game vs LCA, Belfry, or Ironton, they would probably be locked in as the 2 seed in the East.  But they didn't, so their road to a potential 4-peat will be, well, on the road.  Now, I'm in no way guaranteeing a Pikeville win vs Hazard or Boyd County.  Both of those teams are more than equipped to beat this year's version of the Panthers.  But if Pikeville puts up the type of fight we saw against Ironton, then their chances of winning those last two games are higher than we may have all imagined a month ago.  Long story short, as long as Pikeville advances, they will be on the road starting in the third round, at either Sayre or Raceland. 

As far as the West goes, Campbellsville should have no problems advancing to the semis.  As the season stands today, my prediction for the other team out West to advance to the semis would be NCC.  Depending on how the Thoroughbreds finish their season, they could end up the 2 or 3 seed in the semis. 

My prediction for the semis as of today:

1. Pikeville at Campbellsville
2. Raceland at NCC

But the beauty with football, this will be decided on the field, and we all get to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I agree with your analysis except for the part that is bolded.  I can’t see any way that Hazard beats Pikeville after watching Raceland beat them senseless.  Hazard is a good middle of the road Class A team but after their performance last week there is no way I could put them in the same conversation as the top 1A teams.

[jetpilot]

CALPREPS.COM
Your source for high school football scores, standings & rankings



PROJECT A MATCHUP


regular season (neutral field)
[2024] Pikeville (KY) 35 (87%), [2024] Hazard (KY) 17 (13%)

playoffs (neutral field)
[2024] Pikeville (KY) 38 (94%), [2024] Hazard (KY) 14 (6%)



CALPREPS.COM
Your source for high school football scores, standings & rankings



PROJECT A MATCHUP


regular season (neutral field)
[2024] Pikeville (KY) 26 (81%), [2024] Boyd County (Ashland, KY) 12 (19%)

playoffs (neutral field)
[2024] Pikeville (KY) 27 (87%), [2024] Boyd County (Ashland, KY) 10 (13%)



Pikeville will be a couple TDs better in the playoffs than they have been in the regular season. With all they have to clean up (TOs, special teams, penalties and more) + getting healthy, I fully expect to see the Pikeville of old soon...

[Belichick]

RPI definitely rewards wins even against bad teams. In 1A, just have to look at Sayre and Campbellsville this year or KCD previous seasons. However, the RPI weights a teams winning percentage (x.35) the same as their opponents winning percentage (x.35). Then opponents opponents winning percentage is slightly less (x.30). If Pikeville finishes 5-5 and Hazard and Raceland finish 6-4, still not sure that Pikeville will be 4 seed in the east. Strength of schedule may actually be enough to carry them looking at those three team schedules and how those numbers will change. Maybe not but it’s going to be very close. I think the Panthers could end up leapfrogging both but those 3 are going to be very close together in the RPI.