[Old School Hound]

Whitley's loss to North Laurel closed the RPI gap between Corbin and Lex Cath from 0.00488 to 0.00227 .

[Rebel55]

Boy has this weekends games changed the RPI. Boyle was .1103 behind Corbin in 3rd. and now sets .0479 in 2nd. passing Lexington Catholic.

Corbin 326 115 8 - 0 3 - 0 2 - 0 .74494
Boyle County 321 101 7 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 .74015
Lexington Catholic 283 86 7 - 1 2 - 0 2 - 0 .73816

[Hoot Gibson]

If Lexington Catholic beats Scott County and Boyle County loses to Frederick Douglass, do any other games really matter? It seems like if Lexington Catholic or Boyle County win out, then they should overtake Corbin in the RPI - but I don't care enough to do the math for myself to test my hunch. 

[Rebel55]

If Lexington Catholic beats Scott County and Boyle County loses to Frederick Douglass, do any other games really matter? It seems like if Lexington Catholic or Boyle County win out, then they should overtake Corbin in the RPI - but I don't care enough to do the math for myself to test my hunch. 

With Boyle cutting that much of a lead this weekend beating a undefeated Douglas team may very well push them over the hump.  That would be a very hard task to do as they have destroyed everything in their way this year.  I didn’t see possible 24 hours ago.

[Hoot Gibson]

If Lexington Catholic beats Scott County and Boyle County loses to Frederick Douglass, do any other games really matter? It seems like if Lexington Catholic or Boyle County win out, then they should overtake Corbin in the RPI - but I don't care enough to do the math for myself to test my hunch. 

With Boyle cutting that much of a lead this weekend beating a undefeated Douglas team may very well push them over the hump.  That would be a very hard task to do as they have destroyed everything in their way this year.  I didn’t see possible 24 hours ago.

I agree but I expected that Douglass would beat Boyle last season too. They seem to have trouble winning games that matter the most. If Boyle beats them again this season, then all that would be left to determine would be whether Corbin would play Lexington Catholic at home or on the road - but I could be mistaken.

[Bull got out!]

This RPI has tightened up so close that the door squeeks.. LOL.

[Fan of many]

No mention of Franklin Co?

[Rebel55]

No mention of Franklin Co?

14th. will do that some times.

I do expect them to make the semi finals and play at RPI #1.

[Jack Lambert]

I see that Boyle has moved back to #2 in the RPI after last night’s games.

[64SUR]

Corbin should gain some more RPI pts after Pikeville win today

Pikeville 42
Russellville 00

End of third

[Jack Lambert]

If Boyle wins out with Douglas being ranked #1 in 5A it’s going to be interesting but that’s a big if Douglas is going to be tough, but if Boyle does win out I think they’ll be a lock for at least #2 in the RPI.

[Hound05]

I thought back in week 3 that Corbin’s RPI would climb and BC and LCs would drop a little, at least until the FD game. Never expected to be 1 at this point. And it almost working backwards, Corbin’s dropping and boyles climbing.

[Old School Hound]

After Pikeville's win, Corbin's RPI advantage over Boyle decreases from 0.00479 to 0.00143 ? How does a win by a Corbin opponent have a negative impact on the Hounds RPI ? Seems counterintuitive, doesn't it?

Pikeville's WP(as used in the calculation of Corbin's OWP )actually decreased after their win over Russellville.

Pikeville received a 1.00000 for their win over class A Russellville, which actually decreased their WP (minus the Corbin game) from 1.08037 to 1.06889 . I say minus the Corbin game because that game is not counted when calculating Corbin's OWP.

Before Pikeville-Russellville:

Pikeville's WP: (used in calculating Corbin's OWP)
0.00000
1.00000
1.32200
1.14966
2.01058
1.00000
_________

6.48224 / 6 = 1.08037


After Pikeville-Russellville:

Pikeville's WP:

0.00000
1.00000
1.32200
1.14966
2.01058
1.00000
________

7.48224/7 = 1.06889


So, a lower WP for Pikeville translates to a lower OWP for Corbin , which means a lower RPI for Corbin after the Pikeville win. RPI will make you sad just when you think you're gonna be happy. LOL

[Bossdaddy 4115]

When everything is placed correctly into spread sheets and using cal to simulate the remainder of the season 4a east will look like
1 lex cath
2 Boyle county
3 corbin
4 JC.

The only factor that changes this outcome is if Scott beats Catholic. Boyles game with FD has less weight than any of the remaining games.

[Big Daddy Bull]

When the latest RPI results were announced, I was struck by just how close the three top teams in 4A were, particularly Corbin and Lexington Catholic.  Corbin's current RPI  is  0.77562  ; Lex Cath is 0.77074.   That's a difference of only  0.00488 .   I got to wondering, with such a small difference, if all three teams won out(as I expect will happen),  will Corbin remain in the top spot, with the Knights and Rebs following in spots two and three?  My intuition said "probably so."  I knew all three RPI's would drop over the next three weeks due to each team playing a couple of pretty week opponents.  Would each drop about the same, leaving the result about as it is now?  Or would Lex Cath and Boyle gain on the Hounds?   Catholic plays @ Scott County on the last week of the regular season while Boyle gets Fred Douglass @ home.  Corbin has no opponent  left to play that compares with Scott County or FD. Wayne and Campbell County are mediocre, at best,  and Lincoln is poor.  No doubt, both Lex Cath and Boyle will gain on Corbin as a result of the "OPPONENTS WP " element of the RPI .  Will it be enough to overtake the Hounds?  I thought I would put my degree to use and see what the RPI's would look like if game outcomes went as I expect them to go.

My thoughts were that Boyle was probably not close enough to overtake the other two if each team won out. Corbin and Lex Cath felt like it could be really close. BOY, WAS I RIGHT!!! 

Assuming that all three win out, as I expect will happen, I calculated what the WP would be for all three teams. Note: WP , as defined in the RPI formula is not just #of wins/ # of games played but figure in a value based on what class each opponent is in. For example, a Corbin win over 4A Wayne County has a value = 1.00000 but a win over 6A Campbell County has a value = 1.32273.  Corbin's win over 1A Pikeville was only valued at   0.65788 .  However, Corbin benefits from having Pikeville as an opponent because it helps their OWP(opponents winning percentage) score.   Pikeville both giveth and taketh away , one might say. lol

Now, let's get to what you are all here for --- Playoff RPI's .   These calculations  took a very long time. Painstakingly long, I might add.  In projecting winners and losers over the next three weeks, I didn't pick any  crazy upsets . I went with the team that would generally be considered the favorite in most cases. Obviously, there are some games that could go either way. The vast majority I think  most of us would agree on; a handful of others would be up for debate.  

Here is what my calculations revealed  the first time I went through it.  I say first time because I started having second thoughts about a couple of games after my initial projected were made and calculated into the RPI algorithm.

Note: For the OOWP(Opponents Opponents Winning Percentage), I just used the same value that each team presently has. The reason- OOWP is not likely to change very much seven games into the season since there are so many opponents' opponents that would be averaged in to get the final value. Plus, it would take a very, very long time to do those calculations manually. Any resulting changes in each team's OOWP is not likely to move the needle in any statistically significant fashion, this deep into the season. So, we'll go with the current value of OOWP for each team.

Here's what I got:

CORBIN: 

Current :  WP = 1.00533  ;    OPW = 0.64971   ;    OOWP = 0.65453   ;       RPI  =   0.77562

Projected:  WP = 1.03600  ;   OWP = 0.56152 ;     OOWP  = 0.65453   ;      RPI   =   0.75548  


Boyle:

Current :    WP =  0.98210  ;   OPW = 0.72855  ;   OOWP   =  0.53325   ;      RPI   =   0.75870

Projected:   WP =  1.00249  ;   OPW =  0.68746  ;   OOWP  =  0.53325  ;       RPI =    0.75146


Lex Cath :

Current  :    WP  =  1.00675   ;   OPW  = 0.62202   ;   OOWP  =  0.66889  ;    RPI   =   0.77074

Projected:    WP  =  1.01974   ;   OPW  = 0.57239  ;    OOWP  =  0,66889  ;    RPI  =    0.75791


Under this projection scenario, the final rankings would be 1. L.C  2. Corbin  3. Boyle  .

However,  there are a couple of scenarios that could be good news for Redhound fans.   Let's look at a couple of caveats that might turn things in the Redhounds' favor.  

Caveat #1 :   Pulaski County @  Southwestern .   My calculations above factor in a Southwestern win over Pulaski. ( My first inclination was to go with the Warriors but , the more I think about it , I really like the Maroons. They may very well win that intra-county rivalry game. If so, here's what would happen to the RPI, with everything else staying the same :   Corbin =  0.75938   ;    Lex Cath =  0.75791


Caveat #2 :    Woodford County @ Simon Kenton .   My calculations above also had  Woodford beating Simon Kenton.   Kenton , however, has a terrific offense and they may very well win that game at home. If Pulaski falls to Southwestern, the Redhounds still move ahead of Lex Cath with a Simon Kenton win over Woodford.     Corbin =  0.75887   ;   Lex Cath  =   0.75791


Those are two big games to watch for playoff positioning.  Redhound fans, say a cheer for the Maroons and the Pioneers!!!

Also,   couple of other games to watch :     Simon Kenton @ Ryle   . A win for SK in that one deals a double whammy to Lex Cath. It would help Corbin's OWP and, at the same time, hurt Lex Cath's OPW(since Ryle was an opponent of Lex Cath).

In addition,  LCA @ Somerset . If the Briar Jumpers could somehow beat LCA , it would be another double whammy to Lex Cath --- a boost to Corbin's OWP and a blow to Lex Cath's .    Go Pioneers(again !)  and Go Jumpers  !!!

As you can see, the RPI battle between these three teams is going right to the end.  Think about this , if Pulaski lost to Southwestern and Simon Kenton lost to Woodford and everything else  remained the same as in the initial projection EXCEPT FOR...   Dougie's Whitley County Colonels knocking off Danville in Williamburg (it very well could happen),  then in that scenario the final RPI's would be
Corbin =  .75805   ;   Lex Cath =   .75791  .   That's a difference of just  0.00014 .    that's   14/100,000 . Incredibly close!!!! WOW!!!

Obviously, with numbers this close, OPW is going to dictate which team comes out on top.  So, root for your team to win out  and root for your team's opponents to win as well.

It's gonna be a wild ride to the end .    Hope you enjoyed the numbers...

Does anyone know how serious the injury is to the Lex Cath RB? Heard he went out Friday with a knee injury. If he is out for an extended period of time, that would change some things I would think.

[Hound05]

Lex cath scheduled right. I wouldn’t say theirs schedule is any harder than ours. But they got those 6A teams on there and more often than not an average 6A win is gonna be worth way more than a top 1 or 2A win.

[Sgt Slaughter]

Deuce 8 you better hope he brings some better corners when he comes.

Corners !!!!!!! You talkin bout corners !!!!!! They could leave the corners in Boyle co . And still get the W ….. Greer will Panic and resort to his 3 yards and a cloud of dust offensive. Fact ….. Have my pop corn ready and please clean them nasty bathrooms and the “historic” puppy palace ….

I’ll put $500 down on that statement that says if you leave your corners at home you’ll still beat us. I’m not hard to find at the games either. Talk to Your coach and I’ll even double that bet if he does. Tough talk now either pony up or shut up.

---

Boyle , JC , Franklin , LC , and anyone else that Corbin plays from here on out will be a tough game. We’re looking at one game at a time. I can’t say we’re better than anyone until we play them. To be the man you gotta beat the man plus some. I’m just glad we’ve had great football weather and have been injury free so far. The boys are having fun. Good luck to all teams. But, if you come down to our house I hope we give you our best effort.

[Deuce8]

I won’t be hard to find either !!!!! I will have a 5 gallon bucket of pop corn. Can’t wait to see haddix come home and show Greer how to win a meaningful playoff game …. Puppy’s will be 12-1 after week 13 . Put $500 on that .
Pony up puppy pound …. And can y’all please please clean the bathrooms ?

[Hound05]

I just hope for these kids sake we don’t make it to region or semis and have another coaching brain fart. Like sgt said. If you come to Corbin, you should know by the end that you’ve been in a fight. Now whether that takes a coach going to the film room 8 hours a day. Or learning their sign (belfry 2016 hahah). Whatever it takes, because someone owes it to these kids. If a team beat me last year, I’d spend every waking moment trying to get the advantage over them. Our past coach did. But you can’t teach these kids pride and then behind the scenes just go through the motions. Not saying thats what’s going on this year, but it was the last 2, and talking to some other parents, well…….

[pasoorii]

I won’t be hard to find either !!!!! I will have a 5 gallon bucket of pop corn. Can’t wait to see haddix come home and show Greer how to win a meaningful playoff game …. Puppy’s will be 12-1 after week 13 . Put $500 on that .

[Old School Hound]

When everything is placed correctly  into spread sheets and using cal to simulate the remainder of the season 4a east will look like
1 lex cath
2 Boyle county
3 corbin
4 JC.

The only factor that changes this outcome is if Scott beats Catholic.  Boyles game with FD has less weight than any of the remaining games.

Did the simulation give Boyle or Freddie D. the victory?

[Hoot Gibson]

When everything is placed correctly  into spread sheets and using cal to simulate the remainder of the season 4a east will look like
1 lex cath
2 Boyle county
3 corbin
4 JC.

The only factor that changes this outcome is if Scott beats Catholic.  Boyles game with FD has less weight than any of the remaining games.

Did the simulation give Boyle or Freddie D. the victory?

neutral field
[2022] Douglass [Frederick] (Lexington, KY) 31, [2022] Boyle County (Danville, KY) 22

[Old School Hound]

When everything is placed correctly  into spread sheets and using cal to simulate the remainder of the season 4a east will look like
1 lex cath
2 Boyle county
3 corbin
4 JC.

The only factor that changes this outcome is if Scott beats Catholic.  Boyles game with FD has less weight than any of the remaining games.

Did the simulation give Boyle or Freddie D. the victory?

neutral field
[2022] Douglass [Frederick] (Lexington, KY) 31, [2022] Boyle County (Danville, KY) 22

Thanks Hoot.    I was just wondering if Boss' spreadsheet still had Boyle ahead of Corbin, even after two losses.

[Bull got out!]

That says neutral field, did you do one that has Boyle playing at home?

[Hoot Gibson]

That says neutral field, did you do one that has Boyle playing at home?

I don't think CalPreps has that option. They will predict the outcome taking home field into account sometime next week in the "trend" view. Massey has Boyle favored by 1 point.

I think that if Frederick Douglass cant' beat Boyle this season, given their talent level, then they would be smart to remove them from their schedule and replace them with a 6A team that they can beat. FD is earning the reputation of a team that chokes in big games. They beat teams badly when they have an overwhelming advantage in talent but well coached teams with fewer highly ranked recruiting targets seem to have their number.

[Old School Hound]

Can Boyle finish ahead of Corbin in RPI if they have two losses to Corbin's none? They won't do it by virtue of an advantage via WP or OWP. Corbin has a slight lead in RPI going into this week's games and Corbin should have a net gain the last two weeks in those areas, especially if Boyle loses. As many as nine of Corbin's opponents could win this week. Boyle will have make hay in the OOWP component to overtake the Hounds.

[True pioneer]

If Boyle losses to Douglas and Catholic wins Boyle will be the 3rd seed Catholic 2nd seed and Corbin the 1 seed. Boyle would have a tough time and I would say it will be Corbin and Catholic meeting in Lexington

[Hound05]

Can Boyle finish ahead of Corbin in RPI if they have two losses to Corbin's none? They won't do it by virtue of an advantage via WP or OWP. Corbin has a slight lead in RPI going into this week's games and Corbin should have a net gain the last two weeks in those areas, especially if Boyle loses.  As many as nine of Corbin's opponents could win this week. Boyle will have make hay in the OOWP component to overtake the Hounds.

I mentioned this back in week 4 or 5. Taking about wins against good opponents. At the time, their OWP was good. But their opponents hadn’t played anyone. Majority of them had losing records. Some with 1 or 2 wins. Haven’t checked since then. But given what you said, I’d imagine it hasn’t got any better. Probably worse. But that’s also why I thought our RPI would go up with pikeville and FC starting out with some losses. It didn’t do what I thought,
or as much I guess.

[Old School Hound]

Can Boyle finish ahead of Corbin in RPI if they have two losses to Corbin's none? They won't do it by virtue of an advantage via WP or OWP. Corbin has a slight lead in RPI going into this week's games and Corbin should have a net gain the last two weeks in those areas, especially if Boyle loses.  As many as nine of Corbin's opponents could win this week. Boyle will have make hay in the OOWP component to overtake the Hounds.

I mentioned this back in week 4 or 5. Taking about wins against good opponents. At the time, their OWP was good. But their opponents hadn’t played anyone. Majority of them had losing records. Some with 1 or 2 wins. Haven’t checked since then. But given what you said, I’d imagine it hasn’t got any better. Probably worse. But that’s also why I thought our RPI would go up with pikeville and FC starting out with some losses. It didn’t do what I thought,
or as much I guess.

Our OWP took a huge hit last week. (Was up around  0.65 )  That's what caused the tightening in RPI. We should have a pretty good week with our OWP.  As many as nine of our opponents could win. If Boyle loses next week against Fred D. they will lose enough WP points to make it pretty much impossible to overtake the Hounds. Same for Lex. Cath.   Now, if everyone wins out it will be interesting. Will Corbin's OWP drop due to adding Campbell Co. as an opponent be enough allow Boyle or Lex Cath's gain (by playing a stronger opponent) to overtake the Hounds? Because I think the Hounds will add to their WP and OWP this week , it may come down to the OOWP component of the RPI calculation next week to decide final seedings.

[64SUR]

Any update on RPI