[Old School Hound]

When the latest RPI results were announced, I was struck by just how close the three top teams in 4A were, particularly Corbin and Lexington Catholic.  Corbin's current RPI  is  0.77562  ; Lex Cath is 0.77074.   That's a difference of only  0.00488 .   I got to wondering, with such a small difference, if all three teams won out(as I expect will happen),  will Corbin remain in the top spot, with the Knights and Rebs following in spots two and three? My intuition said "probably so."  I knew all three RPI's would drop over the next three weeks due to each team playing a couple of pretty week opponents.  Would each drop about the same, leaving the result about as it is now?  Or would Lex Cath and Boyle gain on the Hounds?   Catholic plays @ Scott County on the last week of the regular season while Boyle gets Fred Douglass @ home.  Corbin has no opponent left to play that compares with Scott County or FD. Wayne and Campbell County are mediocre, at best,  and Lincoln is poor.  No doubt, both Lex Cath and Boyle will gain on Corbin as a result of the "OPPONENTS WP " element of the RPI .  Will it be enough to overtake the Hounds?  I thought I would put my degree to use and see what the RPI's would look like if game outcomes went as I expect them to go.

My thoughts were that Boyle was probably not close enough to overtake the other two if each team won out. Corbin and Lex Cath felt like it could be really close. BOY, WAS I RIGHT!!! 

Assuming that all three win out, as I expect will happen, I calculated what the WP would be for all three teams. Note: WP , as defined in the RPI formula is not just #of wins/ # of games played but figure in a value based on what class each opponent is in. For example, a Corbin win over 4A Wayne County has a value = 1.00000 but a win over 6A Campbell County has a value = 1.32273.  Corbin's win over 1A Pikeville was only valued at   0.65788 .  However, Corbin benefits from having Pikeville as an opponent because it helps their OWP(opponents winning percentage) score.   Pikeville both giveth and taketh away , one might say. lol

Now, let's get to what you are all here for --- Playoff RPI's .   These calculations  took a very long time. Painstakingly long, I might add.  In projecting winners and losers over the next three weeks, I didn't pick any  crazy upsets . I went with the team that would generally be considered the favorite in most cases. Obviously, there are some games that could go either way. The vast majority I think  most of us would agree on; a handful of others would be up for debate.  

Here is what my calculations revealed  the first time I went through it.  I say first time because I started having second thoughts about a couple of games after my initial projected were made and calculated into the RPI algorithm.

Note: For the OOWP(Opponents Opponents Winning Percentage), I just used the same value that each team presently has. The reason- OOWP is not likely to change very much seven games into the season since there are so many opponents' opponents that would be averaged in to get the final value. Plus, it would take a very, very long time to do those calculations manually. Any resulting changes in each team's OOWP is not likely to move the needle in any statistically significant fashion, this deep into the season. So, we'll go with the current value of OOWP for each team.

Here's what I got:

CORBIN: 

Current :  WP = 1.00533  ;    OPW = 0.64971   ;    OOWP = 0.65453   ;       RPI  =   0.77562

Projected:  WP = 1.03600  ;   OWP = 0.56152 ;     OOWP  = 0.65453   ;      RPI   =   0.75548  


Boyle:

Current :    WP =  0.98210  ;   OPW = 0.72855  ;   OOWP   =  0.53325   ;      RPI   =   0.75870

Projected:   WP =  1.00249  ;   OPW =  0.68746  ;   OOWP  =  0.53325  ;       RPI =    0.75146


Lex Cath :

Current  :    WP  =  1.00675   ;   OPW  = 0.62202   ;   OOWP  =  0.66889  ;    RPI   =   0.77074

Projected:    WP  =  1.01974   ;   OPW  = 0.57239  ;    OOWP  =  0,66889  ;    RPI  =    0.75791


Under this projection scenario, the final rankings would be 1. L.C  2. Corbin  3. Boyle  .

However,  there are a couple of scenarios that could be good news for Redhound fans.   Let's look at a couple of caveats that might turn things in the Redhounds' favor.  

Caveat #1 :   Pulaski County @  Southwestern .   My calculations above factor in a Southwestern win over Pulaski. ( My first inclination was to go with the Warriors but , the more I think about it , I really like the Maroons. They may very well win that intra-county rivalry game. If so, here's what would happen to the RPI, with everything else staying the same :   Corbin =  0.75938   ;    Lex Cath =  0.75791


Caveat #2 :    Woodford County @ Simon Kenton .   My calculations above also had  Woodford beating Simon Kenton.   Kenton , however, has a terrific offense and they may very well win that game at home. If Pulaski falls to Southwestern, the Redhounds still move ahead of Lex Cath with a Simon Kenton win over Woodford.     Corbin =  0.75887   ;   Lex Cath  =   0.75791


Those are two big games to watch for playoff positioning.  Redhound fans, say a cheer for the Maroons and the Pioneers!!!

Also,   couple of other games to watch :     Simon Kenton @ Ryle   . A win for SK in that one deals a double whammy to Lex Cath. It would help Corbin's OWP and, at the same time, hurt Lex Cath's OPW(since Ryle was an opponent of Lex Cath).

In addition,  LCA @ Somerset . If the Briar Jumpers could somehow beat LCA , it would be another double whammy to Lex Cath --- a boost to Corbin's OWP and a blow to Lex Cath's .    Go Pioneers(again !)  and Go Jumpers  !!!

As you can see, the RPI battle between these three teams is going right to the end.  Think about this , if Pulaski lost to Southwestern and Simon Kenton lost to Woodford and everything else  remained the same as in the initial projection EXCEPT FOR...   Dougie's Whitley County Colonels knocking off Danville in Williamburg (it very well could happen),  then in that scenario the final RPI's would be
Corbin =  .75805   ;   Lex Cath =   .75791  .   That's a difference of just  0.00014 .    that's   14/100,000 . Incredibly close!!!! WOW!!!

Obviously, with numbers this close, OPW is going to dictate which team comes out on top.  So, root for your team to win out  and root for your team's opponents to win as well.

It's gonna be a wild ride to the end .    Hope you enjoyed the numbers...

[jamesclay]

Boyle is going to win.

[Corbin]

Does margin of victory factor anything into RPI?

[Bull got out!]

Does margin of victory factor anything into RPI?

No

[Sgt Slaughter]

Wow great analysis. Thx for the input and explanation for ppl like me who scratch their heads when it comes to this.

[Eagleland]

4 Teams from the East Corbin, Boyle, Lex Cath and JC
Who is the 4 Teams from the West ??

[Rebel55]

4 Teams from the East  Corbin, Boyle, Lex Cath and JC
Who is the 4 Teams from the West ??

I going to say  these 4 teams. Franklin County, Central, Logan County, and Warren East.

[Old School Hound]

Wow great analysis. Thx for the input and explanation for ppl like me who scratch their heads when it comes to this.

You're welcome, Sarge.



It looks as though Boyle will probably need a loss from either Corbin or LCath in order to move up. I doubt Corbin is losing to Wayne or Campbell, so Boyle needs to hope Lex Cath stumbles at Scott County. Barring that happening, the only way Boyle moves up is if its opponents win AND Corbin's and Lex Cath's opponents perform very poorly from here on out. It is theoretically possible that Boyle could move up but not particularly likely.  A loss by Danville @ Whitley County, for example, drops Boyle's RPI from a projected 0.75146  to  0.74523. So, the Rebs need their opponents to win, win and win some more.

If Pulaski and Simon Kenton win out, that should be enough for Corbin to slip past the Knights, regardless of what else happens. If the Maroons and Pioneers have slip ups along the way, it will be very, very close and the Knights may win with a razor thin margin. I'm thinking at this time Corbin probably finishes #1 with something like a 0.759  rating to 0.758  for the Knights. Keep in mind this is what the numbers show right now. If some weird things happen over the next three weeks, the pendulum could swing. Most likely, though,  it will likely come down to the very last week of games.

[Bull got out!]

I’d say:

Corbin will host Johnson Central for round 3 of the 3rd round.

Lexington Catholic/Boyle rematch.

[Old School Hound]

I’d say:

Corbin will host Johnson Central for round 3 of the 3rd round.

Lexington Catholic/Boyle rematch.

That's what I'm thinking as well.  If Pulaski and Kenton fall flat , it could be different but I see the Maroons and Pioneers doing well from here on out.

[Hoot Gibson]

I believe that some Corbin fans are underestimating an undefeated Woodford County team. If Simon Kenton beats Woodford, it will definitely be an upset, provided both teams are healthy.

[Rebel55]

I’d say:

Corbin will host Johnson Central for round 3 of the 3rd round.

Lexington Catholic/Boyle rematch.

My thoughts also.

[Humpty Dumpty]

Corbin vs Boyle County in the final is my prediction. In that scenario I would be rooting hard for the Hounds but I think Boyle County wins another state title.

[Hoot Gibson]

I am predicting another Boyle County/Johnson Central final in a toss-up. I think that either Corbin or Lexington Catholic are going to have a lot of trouble stopping Johnson Central's running game and I Johnson Central's defense is as good as any in 4A. Boyle County slowed JC's running attack last season, but they still averaged over 5 yards per carry after losing Mason Lawson early in the season. Both McCoart and Lawson are back, along with fullback Chase Price.

[Old School Hound]

I believe that some Corbin fans are underestimating an undefeated Woodford County team. If Simon Kenton beats Woodford, it will definitely be an upset, provided both teams are healthy.

Woodford is an excellent team. In doing my projection I went with Woodford in that one. Kenton has a massive line and some nice weapons and could pull off a win in much the same type of game in which they almost knocked off Corbin. I wouldn't be shocked with either outcome in this one.

[Hoot Gibson]

I believe that some Corbin fans are underestimating an undefeated Woodford County team. If Simon Kenton beats Woodford, it will definitely be an upset, provided both teams are healthy.

Woodford is an excellent team. In doing my projection I went with Woodford in that one. Kenton has a massive line and some nice weapons and could pull off a win in much the same type of game in which they almost knocked off Corbin. I wouldn't be shocked with either outcome in this one.

I won't be shocked if Simon Kenton wins but Woodford is a much better team, IMO. Simon Kenton depends too much on too few playmakers. Woodford beat SK 50-13 last season, with both Crone and Lawson in the lineup.

[Deuce8]

Haddix is coming home ……., He says that dog won’t hunt !!!!!! Have my popcorn ready fine people of Corbin ….. can’t wait to watch him show Greer what a championship coach looks like !!!!!

[Hoot Gibson]

^That would be a great story if Haddix and Boyle County travel to play Corbin in the 3rd round. I think that is the most likely match-up.

[Sgt Slaughter]

Haddix is coming home ……., He says that dog won’t hunt !!!!!! Have my popcorn ready fine people of Corbin ….. can’t wait to watch him show Greer what a championship coach looks like !!!!!

We’ve got an abundance of popcorn in the concession. I believe they’ll even put some extra butter and salt  on it if you ask.

[Colonelfan72]

Deuce 8 you better hope he brings some better corners when he comes.

[Footballfan33]

What happens if Frederick Douglass knocks off Boyle County and Scott County knocks off Lexington Catholic? Both will have 2 losses on the season.

[Fan of many]

Boy o boy, not talking about Franklin Co and you all wanted that coach, who by the way has an SEC RB and still lost to Corbin.

I think The coaching staff has beat Franklin Co twice.

Fair weather and unrealistic fans. You can start the complaining when Corbin loses s

You all were dead wrong about the non hire and better be glad you got who you have

[Sgt Slaughter]

Boy o boy, not talking about Franklin Co and you all wanted that coach, who by the way has an SEC RB and still lost to Corbin.

I think The coaching staff has beat Franklin Co twice.

Fair weather and unrealistic fans. You can start the complaining when Corbin loses s

You all were dead wrong about the non hire and better be glad you got who you have

I’ll be honest. You lost me at boy o boy. From there my gears just stopped turning.

[Old School Hound]

I believe that some Corbin fans are underestimating an undefeated Woodford County team. If Simon Kenton beats Woodford, it will definitely be an upset, provided both teams are healthy.

Woodford is an excellent team. In doing my projection I went with Woodford in that one. Kenton has a massive line and some nice weapons and could pull off a win in much the same type of game in which they almost knocked off Corbin. I wouldn't be shocked with either outcome in this one.

I won't be shocked if Simon Kenton wins but Woodford is a much better team, IMO. Simon Kenton depends too much on too few playmakers. Woodford beat SK 50-13 last season, with both Crone and Lawson in the lineup.

Yeah, I'm pulling for Simon but in games between good teams, I usually go with the team that plays the better defense. Crone and Lawson are superb but can they do enough to offset Woodford's many skill players ?   

What about the Pulaski/ Southwestern tilt?  Who do you like in that titanic struggle?

[Hound05]

Boy o boy, not talking about Franklin Co and you all wanted that coach, who by the way has an SEC RB and still lost to Corbin.

I think The coaching staff has beat Franklin Co twice.

Fair weather and unrealistic fans. You can start the complaining when Corbin loses s

You all were dead wrong about the non hire and better be glad you got who you have

Tommy…… is that you?

[Hound05]

Your analysis shows just how important scheduling is. Not only for experience, but to have the easiest path. Putting a Campbell co on the roster over a FD could mean going from 1st to 4th in one game. Football, basketball, baseball, they aren’t all that different in terms of playoffs. Sometimes the best team doesn’t win, especially when teams get closer talent wise. Baseball does a series, you can usually get the best team out of that. Basketball does in the pros, and the best team usually Comes out ahead in that. But college, no way. Football is a little different, I know that. But having the easiest path increases the probability that the better team will win out. People often confuse probability with possibility. It’s possible Lynn camp will win the title, but not probable. Having an easier team might mean the difference in players banged up going into the title or somewhat fresh.

I use to love our schedule, but the past couple years, to me anyways have given some a false sense of how we stack up. Playing a mayfield or beechwood and measuring yourself with a win against them is different than Franklin Co or pikeville
(Sorry jet, don’t kill me). That was some of our problem last year. Hopefully this year it’s prepared us a little more. I wish we would have dropped someone and got a good rushing team, or at least an offense similar to JC, like belfry, just in case of a possible matchup. You can’t simulate an offense like that in practice. Or the physical play. Side note, I think SK doesn’t get enough credit for their physicality.

[Hound05]

  

What about the Pulaski/ Southwestern tilt?  Who do you like in that titanic struggle?

Im still going with PC is better than what people give them. Got laughed at weeks ago, I can handle it now too I guess. But each week more and more are starting to see it. Im going with PC for the win, barring a complete breakdown

[Hoot Gibson]

I believe that some Corbin fans are underestimating an undefeated Woodford County team. If Simon Kenton beats Woodford, it will definitely be an upset, provided both teams are healthy.

Woodford is an excellent team. In doing my projection I went with Woodford in that one. Kenton has a massive line and some nice weapons and could pull off a win in much the same type of game in which they almost knocked off Corbin. I wouldn't be shocked with either outcome in this one.

I won't be shocked if Simon Kenton wins but Woodford is a much better team, IMO. Simon Kenton depends too much on too few playmakers. Woodford beat SK 50-13 last season, with both Crone and Lawson in the lineup.

Yeah, I'm pulling for Simon but in games between good teams, I usually go with the team that plays the better defense. Crone and Lawson are superb but can they do enough to offset Woodford's many skill players ?   

What about the Pulaski/ Southwestern tilt?  Who do you like in that titanic struggle?

I don't know enough about Pulaski and Southwestern to have a strong opinion.   I listened to a good part of the Southwestern game against Simon Kenton and they remind me of Johnson Central's philosophy of running the ball until the defense proves that they can stop the run. I would not be surprised by any outcome of the game. If Southwestern gets an early lead, then they seem to have the type of offense that will shorten the game. If Pulaski gets off to a fast start, then it could be a long night for Southwestern. OTOH, SK was up 13-0 against Southwestern and dominated the game after Crone suffered a concussion, so may their offense is explosive enough to stage a comeback, if necessary, against Pulaski.

[pjdoug]

Boy o boy, not talking about Franklin Co and you all wanted that coach, who by the way has an SEC RB and still lost to Corbin.

I think The coaching staff has beat Franklin Co twice.

Fair weather and unrealistic fans. You can start the complaining when Corbin loses s

You all were dead wrong about the non hire and better be glad you got who you have

Tommy…… is that you?

You definitely don't have to guess that it's a coach

[Deuce8]

Deuce 8 you better hope he brings some better corners when he comes.

Corners !!!!!!! You talkin bout corners !!!!!! They could leave the corners in Boyle co . And still get the W ….. Greer will Panic and resort to his 3 yards and a cloud of dust offensive. Fact ….. Have my pop corn ready and please clean them nasty bathrooms and the “historic” puppy palace ….