[thecoacher]

Heres a look at the schools on the border of different classes....

Class 1A Biggest

Bracken County 189.5
Nicholas County 194.5
Beechwood 196.5
Mayfield 199.0
Allen Central 199.0

Class 2A Smallest

Bishop Brossart 200.5
Clinton County 208.0
Ballard Memorial 210.0
Owensboro Catholic 210.0
Crittenden County 211.5

Class 2A Biggest

Bath County 309.0
Russell 315.0
Caldwell County 324.5
Union County 330.0
Shelby Valley 330.5

Class 3A Smallest

Heath 331.0
West Carter 332.0
Jackson County 332.0
Trigg County 332.5
Webster County 334.0

Class 3A Biggest

Paducah Tilghman 407.5
South Warren 413.0
Bourbon County 414.0
East Carter 415.0
McCreary Central 417.5

Class 4A Smallest

Highlands 419.5
Lexington Catholic 427.5
Taylor County 428.0
Russell County 432.0
Holmes 438.0

Class 4A Largest

Hopkins County Central 507.0
Madisonville-North Hopkins 509.5
Clay County 512.5
Mercer County 521.5
Fairdale 524.0

Class 5A Smallest

Shelby County 525.0
Perry County Central 525.5
Hopkinsville 529.5
Warren Central 530.0
West Jessamine 533.0

Class 5A Largest

Iroquois 671.0
North Laurel 681.0
North Hardin 682.0
Graves County 694.5
Apollo 695.5

Class 6A Smallest

Fern Creek 705.5
Dixie Heights 709.5
Southern 712.5
Muhlenberg County 730.5
Oldham County 735.5

Note: Bath County plays up from 2A to 3A, Cooper plays up from 4A to 5A, Letcher Central plays up from 4A to 5A, all for geography purposes.
Those are the only 3 schools that play out of class. Nobody plays down.

If you team is not on the list above, it's highly doubtful you will be moved in the 2015 realignment. This doesn't count schools that could be or already have consolidated. You can find the full list here...
http://khsaa.org/football/realignment/20...isting.pdf



Discuss!

Russell also plays up from 2A to 3A.

[E's Army]

The KHSAA site has tthe two year average boys at Fort Knox, Bishop Brossert, and Crittendon County having fallen under 180. Nicholas County and Beechwood have stayed in this range. Trimble County, Holy Cross Covington, Mayfield, Allen Central,New Cath and Mayfield are all in the 210 to 220 range. These schools are all looking at being the last 4 or 5 schools in 1A.

[Brother Xavier]

Fort Knox will be dropping down to 1A the next reclassification. They have 175 boys in their school and will continue to drop due to the 3/1 leaving.

[charlie22]

^
Redundancy is my specialty

You are redundant again and again on here. :biggrin:

[dns]

Is johnson central moving or stayiny put?

[Cardfan1]

Johnson has pretty big numbers according to last state reports that seem to put them in 5A.

[Jack Lambert]

I work for Boyle co. school system and i'm being told that they expect to drop to 3A next realignment.

[EKUAlum05]

I work for Boyle co. school system and i'm being told that they expect to drop to 3A next realignment.

Would love to see this happen. My hope is they put them in with Garrard and Bourbon (if Bourbon stays 3A and doesnt move to 4A). The Eastern 3A Semi-State has went from very strong to very weak in the span of a few years as Russell, Breathitt, and Sheldon Clark all have had significant decline.... as a Belfry fan I would welcome Boyle to 3A and a potential State Semi-Final matchup.

Steel sharpens steel!

My fear though is Belfry may be 2A by the time the next alignment comes around... the coal industry has been crushed these past two years and an enrollment decline has to be expected.

[Jack Lambert]

I'm not sure this will happen but i do know the number of male students at Boyle has really dropped since last realignment and its affected the numbers on the football team to.

[Bobcats 9108]

I'm not sure this will happen but i do know the number of male students at Boyle has really dropped since last realignment and its affected the numbers on the football team to.

I think that is happening all over. We are losing students as well.

[RunItUpTheGut]

You are redundant again and again on here. :biggrin:

Don't worry, Im not a politically correct type of person. You can say retarded nicker:

[WhoYaWith]

Boyle's last two years boys have dropped substantially. Should be in the middle in 3A. Highlands have actually substantially increased to middle of 4A. My two cents worth but not much.

[RunItUpTheGut]

I didn't know enrollments were dropping at so many non-EKY schools as well.
We may see a big shift in the classes.

[WILDCAT NATION]

It amazes me to see Bracken and Nicholas Co's numbers. They are consistently have 2x ghe numbers, atleast, as Fairview, Paintsville, and Raceland, yet each year they cant seem to field more than 20-30 Players. While the other schools in their district field 50-70 players.

Bracken and Nicholas are very small county schools with no comparison to Raceland, Fairview, or Paintsville in football support. Those are "city" schools by comparison to Bracken and Nicholas.

[eagles2011]

Perry county 4-a

Harlan county 4 a

Highlands 3- a

Cov cath 5 -a

Lawrence county 2-a
I wish we would go two 5 classes,

[RunItUpTheGut]

^
PCC could have a slight chance of dropping to 4A, but you have to remember that Letcher is already playing up with middle of the road 4A numbers due to geography.
If Perry drops, they'll have to move Letcher down to.

I don't see any scenario where Harlan County drops to 4A. They have close to Whitley numbers.

[Spirit100]

Dixie Heights is another "possible" possibility moving from 6A to 5A. I'll get some official numbers on this years enrollment this week and get back to you all.

Dixie is currently at 715, up 6 from Guts 2011 polling.

[rednblackattack]

Would love Mayfield to go to 2a. Its a numbers game k don't see them doing it because it would lower the number of 1a schools

[EKUAlum05]

Would love Mayfield to go to 2a. Its a numbers game k don't see them doing it because it would lower the number of 1a schools

Move a non-competitive 2A team down to 1A...

Bring Mayfield up to 2A and drop Crittenden to 1A and bodda-boom-bodda-bing... the whole thing changes

[rednblackattack]

Would like to see that happen

[killbilly usmc]

Move a non-competitive 2A team down to 1A...

Bring Mayfield up to 2A and drop Crittenden to 1A and bodda-boom-bodda-bing... the whole thing changes

I would love to see mayfield battle caldwell and murray in a district but there is classes for a reason to keep similar size schools together if 32 is the min for a class then the smallest 32 should be in it it sounds fine and dandy to switch a mayfield with a crittenden but what happens if you do that and crittenden has a great group come through and they win a title and say mayfield was down those same years you would have legitimate complaints on how crittenden was not one of the smallest 32 and got 2 play down it aint been that long since crittenden had some good teams maybe mayfield will have the numbers to move to 2a if not they should stay in 1a

[#1 Blackcat Fan]

If Allen Central move up, Betsy Layne would move down. It's based on geography too. They were to close last time.

I don't see Betsy Layne moving down. If the numbers stay about the same they are 7 teams with less than them.

You may see Shelby Valley move up to 3A with loss of East Ridge in that district and they are the largest 2A school.

I would like to see Bishop Brossart drop to 1A and Mayfield bumped to 2A.

[Cardfan1]

I think the policy is take the largets 32 and the smallest 32 and throw everybody else in the middle.

Someone mentioned boyle going to 3A, but according to numbers some teams would drop before them: Greenup, Allen County-scottsville, Rockcastle, Spencer Co, Louisville Western.

If boyle stays in there are some interesting teams above them now that would definetly be in 4A: Wayne, Corbin, Bourbon

For the Record Highlands is larger than all of the schools mentioned other than Wayne. All of this according to the 2012-2013 SAARS report.

[oneijoe]

Cardfan1 is correct, I believe, on the methodology used in setting the classes. KHSAA set the highest and lowest classes (A and 6A) at an ideal 4 teams in 8 districts then equally divided the rest (at the time) among the middle 4 classes.

Some changes happen between reclassification years due to consolidation (other reasons?), but the breakdown for this past season was (from Riherds list):

A and 6A - 32
2A - 38
3A - 39
4A - 37
5A - 40

Total - 186


If KHSAA uses the same method on the 2015 reclassification, and keeping in mind the number of schools is likely to decrease (due to continuing consolidation), the number of A and 6A schools aren't likely to change. This leaves the average of remaining schools to be placed in respective 2A-5A classes at 38.5. At a minimum, 5A will lose one school and 4A will pick up one.

As far as -which- schools go where, it's impossible to tell until this next year's male student census.

[Cardfan1]

Another poster on here posted a press release that said they use this year's enrollment--2012-2013.

[DragonFire]

The 2011-2014 alignment used the two latest years of enrollments available prior to their draft alignment, and that is the standard procedure they have used for at least the last few. The draft alignment is typically released in January of the year prior to the last year of the current alignment, once the current year numbers are released. What this means is that the numbers the initial post is looking at are from the average of the 2008-2009 & 2009-2010 school years. A LOT has changed since then and six classes introduce more volatility than we were once used to. Unless the KHSAA revises the way they do the classes or the numbers they use (and at this point there's no reason to believe they will), the statement that if a team isn't on the list they are unlikely to be moved is inaccurate.

The two years that are likely to be used for the next enrollment is the numbers from the 2012-2013 & 2013-2014 school years. We already have 12/13, and 13/14 should come out sometime this month or the next. You can get some idea of where teams may fall by looking at the single year that we do have, which will be half the equation (http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/201...enroll.pdf).

Some teams have taken massive jumps. Take Jeffersontown for example. They were just on the high side of the midpoint of 5A in the last alignment with an average of 627.5 males. They had 619 in the last of the two years used in the average (09/10). They enrolled 820 males last year, putting them just south of the midpoint in 6A, jumping from one midpoint to the other. There are a few cases like this. Fairdale and Owensboro have taken large jumps. South Warren is considered likely to jump from 3A all the way to 5A. Some have taken large drops, such as John Hardin. In 2009/10 they had 610 males. Last year they enrolled 492. They'll be in 4A for the next alignment barring one unbelievable leap in enrollment for this year.

Look at those enrollment numbers linked from 2012/13 and you'll get a decent idea of what teams may or may not be moving.