[BCF4L]

Sorry guys I've been out on the road today for work, but I have had the chance to look at the latest runs. Ummmmm, well, honestly I don't think it looks good at all. The GFS, and Euro are both showing the low tracking West of the Appalachian Mtns, which in turn draws warm air into the state. Like RR said, this thing is packed full of moisture, but unfortunately it appears to be in the form of rain. Now, that is as of right now. The 18Z NAM just came out and it shows a huge southeasterly shift with the low, keeping all of Kentucky below freezing. If this were to come about, Eastern KY would end up with somewhere around 8 inches compared to Lexington's 4-6. The question is, which model and run is correct? Here is why Chris Bailey is holding out so much hope. 1.) He is biased when it comes to snow. He loves snow and wants it to snow. 2.) No model has shown the same track twice. Each run has the low tracking in a different direction.

The thing is with these storms, 25 miles could mean rain or snow. Honestly, noone will know exactly what it is going to do until it starts falling from the sky. We have 5 or so different models showing 5 or so different solutions. There is still 3 days until this storm gets here and these models have a long way to go still. The only think we can report is what the models are showing, which is obviously different with each run.

What do I think it will do? I think we will all start out as rain early Saturday morning. By 2-4 pm, I think you will see the transition period from rain to snow. I think because of this transition from West to East, that Central KY will get more accumulation than Eastern KY due to most of the moisture being out in front of this storm. So naturally, the faster you cool, the more snow you will see. Totals will range from 3-6 inches in Central KY to MAYBE, and I use Maybe loosely, MAYBE 2-4 inches in Eastern KY. But the 18Z GFS is getting ready to come out, so I will post what it shows in a bit. Just cross your fingers and pray that this thing shifts southeast!!