Bluegrassrivals

http://wkyt.mis.net/weatherblog/?p=1634
On Chris Bailey's weather blog many of them have been reading the latest maps to come out, with 3 of them with similar readings. They each show possibly 6-12 for eastern Ky. Lets not get our hopes up though but the models had been agreeing with one another with my experience from last year, that was a rare occurance, so this could possibly be the one we have long awaited.

BlackcatFootball Wrote:http://wkyt.mis.net/weatherblog/?p=1634
On Chris Bailey's weather blog many of them have been reading the latest maps to come out, with 3 of them with similar readings. They each show possibly 6-12 for eastern Ky. Lets not get our hopes up though but the models had been agreeing with one another with my experience from last year, that was a rare occurance, so this could possibly be the one we have long awaited.

BCF4L and I both have been predicting this storm for quite some time. HOWEVER, at 6-7 days out, its hard to project anything accurately. The fact of the matter is that there should be a southern storm. How southern? How cold? How much moisture? These are the questions that are yet to be answered. When the storm comes into the >84hr models, we'll have a much better idea of its track, its strength, and the temps. Stay tuned. This one MAY be a big one. (Keep in mind, the storm may NOT happen... or one of the 3 ingredients may not be in the recipe')

ronald_reagan Wrote:BCF4L and I both have been predicting this storm for quite some time. HOWEVER, at 6-7 days out, its hard to project anything accurately. The fact of the matter is that there should be a southern storm. How southern? How cold? How much moisture? These are the questions that are yet to be answered. When the storm comes into the >84hr models, we'll have a much better idea of its track, its strength, and the temps. Stay tuned. This one MAY be a big one. (Keep in mind, the storm may NOT happen... or one of the 3 ingredients may not be in the recipe')

Keep us updated.

Just reviewed the last two GFS models. The storm is definately on track to be a big one. I've not been this excited over such a thing, in years upon years. I'm estatic!

As of now, the 36 hour precip forecast has eastern ky getting up to 2 feet of snow!! Let me stress... it may be sunny and 60 degrees this weekend, but as of now.. there's a storm brewing. And we'll ahve a much better grasp on it in the next few days as other short term models start picking it up.

Stay tuned. This is going to be interesting.

I'm not as excited as I once was. After looking at the latest GFS, and Euro models, it appears they are starting to trend more northerly and westerly. This is allowing warm air to enter KY and make this event start out as all rain. This storm will change to all snow, but the question is when will it make the change and how much moisture is left. It still looks good for us right now, and I do expect the models to start moving this thing back to the south a bit. Some forecast models are showing 5-6 inches for eastern ky as of right now. And this doesn't even show the entire duration of the storm. Check out this map. This is showing 5-6 inches in eastern KY and even more than that in central and western KY. As you can see, if this storm shifts 50-100 miles south and east, then eastern ky gets clobbered.

[Image: CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif]

I love snow

The newest GFS snowfall map shows a statewide 6-10 inch snowfall.

Is this supposed to be this weekend?

Yes.

The weather.com Prestonsburg forcast is icy/freezing rain for Saturday, and Snow Showers on Sunday, but it isn't showing any accumulation.

blackcat_student Wrote:The weather.com Prestonsburg forcast is icy/freezing rain for Saturday, and Snow Showers on Sunday, but it isn't showing any accumulation.

Weather.com is always really conservative and general. Often the weather channel will predict for a larger area than say your local weatherman.

Also, the possible winter storm is only being considered a threat right now, because the weather models could change. It's still quite a few days away and anything could happen, but if all goes according to what the charts are showing, then the entire state should see a good amount of snow.

The Euro has gone back southerly with the storm leaving Kentucky with an all snow event and in the center of the bullseye so to speak. Let's hope this continues to show up. I'd say around Thursday we will know more, but just be prepared.

Can I get a heck yeah????

WOOOO HOOOOOO!!!!!!

I LOVE the snow!!!!!

As I pray to Mother Nature..BRINGETH THY SNOW TO LETCHER COUNTY IN THE VERY LARGETH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE!!

Well as you guys can tell from the map that I posted above. It once showed a 6-10 inch snowfall. Now it shows less than an inch. That should give you an indication of what the latest models have been doing. Are they correct? Who knows, but we still have a couple of days to sort this thing out.

bcf4l,

I've been reviewing the 06z gfs as well as the euro models, and i just don't see how 1 inch of snow is even possible, given the moisture, and temps. Some models are showing upwards to 2" of precip, and lexington never getting above the freeze line.

I'm kind of baffled. Do you care to explain it better?

I'm a little confused because BCF4L seems to think that it won't be as big now, but Chris Bailey's weather blog made it seem like it would be bigger than he expected. A major winter storm.

So what's going on?

ComfortEagle Wrote:I'm a little confused because BCF4L seems to think that it won't be as big now, but Chris Bailey's weather blog made it seem like it would be bigger than he expected. A major winter storm.

So what's going on?

Bailey is in a much different situation than bcf4l and I are. His forecasts are based upon several models, over several days. I think what BCF4L is saying, and I agree totally, is that this is just one model out of about 4-5 to look at. His point is that models change, and the exact track of this storm is yet to be determined.

Personally, I believe the latest model to be a fluke. There's a few reasons.. I strongly believe a coastal low will develop, and this lastest track hurts that chance because of the inability to transfer energy. There's also a high pressure building out west that will push it more towards to the east. In about 2-3 hours we'll have a few new models coming out. I'll be making my intitial predictions based on these solutions.

This is the forcast for Prestonsburg on this coming Saturday night.

ok, latest gfs 12z model is out... I'm goin to make a 6-8" prediction for Central Ky. Starts out as snow, changes to a very wet mix, then back to a dry powdery snow before it wraps up.

East Ky may miss out on this event as the storm tracks further north and west. Flooding is not out of the realm of probability. This is a very moist system. 2-3 inches of rain are very possible.

Stay tuned. I'll be updating every 6-8 hours from here on out.

BCF4L, please give your input if and when you get the chance.

i want to go sledding!!!!

Sorry guys I've been out on the road today for work, but I have had the chance to look at the latest runs. Ummmmm, well, honestly I don't think it looks good at all. The GFS, and Euro are both showing the low tracking West of the Appalachian Mtns, which in turn draws warm air into the state. Like RR said, this thing is packed full of moisture, but unfortunately it appears to be in the form of rain. Now, that is as of right now. The 18Z NAM just came out and it shows a huge southeasterly shift with the low, keeping all of Kentucky below freezing. If this were to come about, Eastern KY would end up with somewhere around 8 inches compared to Lexington's 4-6. The question is, which model and run is correct? Here is why Chris Bailey is holding out so much hope. 1.) He is biased when it comes to snow. He loves snow and wants it to snow. 2.) No model has shown the same track twice. Each run has the low tracking in a different direction.

The thing is with these storms, 25 miles could mean rain or snow. Honestly, noone will know exactly what it is going to do until it starts falling from the sky. We have 5 or so different models showing 5 or so different solutions. There is still 3 days until this storm gets here and these models have a long way to go still. The only think we can report is what the models are showing, which is obviously different with each run.

What do I think it will do? I think we will all start out as rain early Saturday morning. By 2-4 pm, I think you will see the transition period from rain to snow. I think because of this transition from West to East, that Central KY will get more accumulation than Eastern KY due to most of the moisture being out in front of this storm. So naturally, the faster you cool, the more snow you will see. Totals will range from 3-6 inches in Central KY to MAYBE, and I use Maybe loosely, MAYBE 2-4 inches in Eastern KY. But the 18Z GFS is getting ready to come out, so I will post what it shows in a bit. Just cross your fingers and pray that this thing shifts southeast!!

Bring on the snow to Eastern Ky!

I hope we get a foot or more

TOMCAT06 Wrote:I hope we get a foot or more

its looking less likely, but the models are all over the place still. this is going to be figured out in the 24 hours going into it....

Yeh thats what i figured it was so unbelievably warm yesterday and today was mild I'd say the ground will melt a lot of what falls if any does at all but I love to wake up to a snow covered ground

PLAYBOY5 Wrote:Bring on the snow to Eastern Ky!

Im with ya bro!

I really hope it does something in Powell County!! I don't feel like going to school!

Everything is trending to a warmer solution. Every model out now shows us at least starting out as rain. Honestly, I wouldn't look for more than 3 inches in Central KY and maybe an inch in eastern KY. Our only hope is that the models are wrong and this thing shifts once it forms.

Let's look at the bright side though....the models are picking up on a similar storm Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.