[Bull got out!]

10% to 20% - The Hounds will need upset wins over Johnson Central and Boyle County to win the title. Transfers could change the odds.

Maybe one. It is doubtful that Haddix would have benefitted from as many key transfers at Corbin as he has at Boyle. Given the same players, Haddix would have made Corbin more competitive but I think some Corbin fans overestimate Haddix's ability. He has benefitted as much from his location as Boyle County has benefitted from his presence. Boyle County was well coached before Haddix and they will be well coached when he leaves.

Why would it be considered a upset if Corbin beats Johnson Central?

Because Johnson Central outgained Corbin in last year's playoff game behind an inexperienced offensive line and they return nearly all of their line from that team, in addition, to their top two running backs (McCoart and Conley, who missed most of last season with an injury) and a sophomore running back (Logan Music) who would have started as a freshman at that position for most teams in Kentucky last season. Corbin has a lot of talent returning but if Johnson Central enters the playoffs healthy, it is going to take a lot of points to take them down, IMO.

There is a full regular season to be played, and the schedules have not even been finalized, but if the RPI does not send JC to Corbin again this season, I expect JC to be favored over Corbin. JC should have a very good shot at an undefeated regular season but out-of-state teams on the schedule could send them on the road again if Corbin also finishes undefeated.

I am not overlooking the possibility of losses to Ashland, Covington Catholic, or Ironton before a hypothetical match-up between JC and Corbin would take place. I was just stating why I think that Corbin's chances of winning a title are only 10 to 20 percent. There is plenty of competition for a spot opposite of Boyle County. If Boyle County has a 50 percent chance of repeating, that doesn't leave a lot of odds to split among the field.

I wouldn’t call a team with 12 games under there belt inexperienced at the 13th game of a season at a program like Johnson Central. McCoart had a heck of a game in the matchup. Looked healthy to me. Johnson Central did gain more yardage rushing in that game but it only produced 2 rushing touchdowns. I still don’t see how that equates to an upset if Corbin wins this year. Both teams were building off heavy graduations.

McCoart was healthy against Corbin. Conley was leading JC in rushing yardage when he was injured on his first carry against North Laurel and missed most of the season. I never said that Johnson Central would be big favorites over Corbin. The game could go either way - but I think Corbin's graduation losses will hurt them more than JC's will. Somebody asked what everybody thought of Corbin's chances of winning the title. I don't think that their chances are as good as they were last season because the road to the finals will be tougher for them. JC should be improved and Boyle will probably be better as well.

I'll agree with you on that statement. Johnson Central will be twice better come playoffs this season.