[fewfirstchoice]

97% chance one of the top 3 win the region. Whoever gets the better draw is probably a 50% favorite over the other two. Paintsville, LC, and Pikeville can all beat each other on any given night. Pikeville might be the lessor of the offense but how many runs do you need with their ace on the mound? 3 runs and you know you are in a very close game almost always.

I agree with this. Whoever is playing the best at tourney time and gets a few breaks with the draw will more than likely win the regional tournament.

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IMO Paintsville is the best team overall. And a further edge is someone will have to use a good pitcher to get by Johnson Central, who Paintsville wouldn't face until the finals. But you might lose to someone's ace trying to get cute and save your pitching. From what I have seen Paintsville is the deepest team. I don't think Pikeville will be a factor although Lakin can bounce either of the top 2. I put Paintsville's chance at 58, LC 37, JC + Pikeville 5, everyone else zero. All subject to change of course.

Paintsville may very well be the best overall team (they’re pretty dang good) but we do have to base our opinions somewhat on what has happened on the field. 

Lawrence County and Painstville have both beat Pikeville, (tho Pikeville has beaten Paintsville as well) JC, Martin Co, Belfry, and Pburg. Both have had a bad loss to a couple decent teams. Lawrence County has beaten 2 teams Huntington and Pikeville that has beaten Paintsville. While it’s knit picking it’s still facts. Both are great teams and I don’t really know who the favorite is right now. But based maybe solely on the Huntington game and Lawrence County having Blevins on the hill I have to put LC ahead of Paintsville at the moment. Also every member of Lawrence County’s starting 9 is hitting over .300 at the moment. While Paintsville has more pop at the plate I believe Lawrence County is more consistent with the bats. Paintsville has good arms but do they have a kid that can compete with Blevins on the mound because if LC sees Paintsville in the region tourney that’s who’ll they’ll be seeing?

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Pikeville's only shot IMO is win their district (mortal lock), not draw JC in the first round and use their 4-6 pitchers to advance, use Clark in semis if it's JC and Lakin if it's Paintsville or LC in semis, then you still have Clark or Lakin in finals. But Pikeville not the best hitting or fielding team so pitching will have to win the region.

Hitting hurts Pikeville the most IMO. Draws mean everything when it comes to tourney time.

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Lawrence County’s best draw would be the 59th districts 2 seed then the winner of say Belfry 60th 1seed and JC 57th 2seed in the 2nd round. Both JC and Belfry would have to burn their number 1’s in that game. That would set LC up about perfect. Lord knows in 2019 they had to run the gauntlet to win the region. So, they’re due a break when it comes to draws lol.

You say you have to base opinions on what has happened on the field, but Paintsville and Lawrence haven't been on the field together. To be clear I don't like Paintsville or Lawrence but I am telling you that if Lawrence's ace doesn't go against Paintsville I will take Paintsville all day long. I'm wrong all the time and so are you, if we knew what will actually happen in the 15th tourney they wouldn't have to play it.

I agree with almost everything you said. I think Lawrence County and Paintsville would be a tight game without Blevins on the mound with it being a coin flip as to who would win. I just don’t think Painstville pitching is consistent enough to shut Lawrence County’s offense completely down. Now if Blevins is on the mound and if he is on that day Paintsville may get a hit or 2 against him and not much more. If he’s not on they’ll get a couple runs. But we’ll see next week how it will shake out without Blevins on the mound. LC and Paintsville play the 11th at Paintsville. LC probably wont throw Blevins, Fletcher, or Fletcher against them, LCs top 3. Painstville may see the freshman that threw against Pikeville? I’m willing to bet Paintsville won’t throw any of their top arms either. Should be a fun day tho.

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IMO Paintsville is the best team overall. And a further edge is someone will have to use a good pitcher to get by Johnson Central, who Paintsville wouldn't face until the finals. But you might lose to someone's ace trying to get cute and save your pitching. From what I have seen Paintsville is the deepest team. I don't think Pikeville will be a factor although Lakin can bounce either of the top 2. I put Paintsville's chance at 58, LC 37, JC + Pikeville 5, everyone else zero. All subject to change of course.

Paintsville may very well be the best overall team (they’re pretty dang good) but we do have to base our opinions somewhat on what has happened on the field. 

Lawrence County and Painstville have both beat Pikeville, (tho Pikeville has beaten Paintsville as well) JC, Martin Co, Belfry, and Pburg. Both have had a bad loss to a couple decent teams. Lawrence County has beaten 2 teams Huntington and Pikeville that has beaten Paintsville. While it’s knit picking it’s still facts. Both are great teams and I don’t really know who the favorite is right now. But based maybe solely on the Huntington game and Lawrence County having Blevins on the hill I have to put LC ahead of Paintsville at the moment. Also every member of Lawrence County’s starting 9 is hitting over .300 at the moment. While Paintsville has more pop at the plate I believe Lawrence County is more consistent with the bats. Paintsville has good arms but do they have a kid that can compete with Blevins on the mound because if LC sees Paintsville in the region tourney that’s who’ll they’ll be seeing?

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Pikeville's only shot IMO is win their district (mortal lock), not draw JC in the first round and use their 4-6 pitchers to advance, use Clark in semis if it's JC and Lakin if it's Paintsville or LC in semis, then you still have Clark or Lakin in finals. But Pikeville not the best hitting or fielding team so pitching will have to win the region.

Hitting hurts Pikeville the most IMO. Draws mean everything when it comes to tourney time.

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Lawrence County’s best draw would be the 59th districts 2 seed then the winner of say Belfry 60th 1seed and JC 57th 2seed in the 2nd round. Both JC and Belfry would have to burn their number 1’s in that game. That would set LC up about perfect. Lord knows in 2019 they had to run the gauntlet to win the region. So, they’re due a break when it comes to draws lol.

You say you have to base opinions on what has happened on the field, but Paintsville and Lawrence haven't been on the field together. To be clear I don't like Paintsville or Lawrence but I am telling you that if Lawrence's ace doesn't go against Paintsville I will take Paintsville all day long. I'm wrong all the time and so are you, if we knew what will actually happen in the 15th tourney they wouldn't have to play it.

But they have had common opponents. Huntington and Huntington threw (from what I was told) the same arm against us that they threw against Paintsville. It really doesn’t mean much but it’s the only info along with the Pikeville games we have to go on.

Common opponents is the most failed indicator in the history of sports. I get your love for LC and I get you think they will win it and you may be right. But no way close to being close to being anywhere close to being a sure thing. Pikeville has 2 pitchers who can take either team out. I think Paintsville wins the region it's just an opinion and it won't change until someone knocks them out of the regional tournament.

It may not be the strongest indicator we can go on but it’s all we have at the moment. So, we have to give it a little credence in this situation. It’s how rankings are compiled with no head to head match ups. All 3 teams are great teams and will be a tough out for anyone. 

I wouldn’t say what I have is a great love for LC. I support them and do want to see them win because my son plays for them. That’s about the extent of it. That’s not my alma mater.