[jetpilot]

IMO Paintsville is the best team overall. And a further edge is someone will have to use a good pitcher to get by Johnson Central, who Paintsville wouldn't face until the finals. But you might lose to someone's ace trying to get cute and save your pitching. From what I have seen Paintsville is the deepest team. I don't think Pikeville will be a factor although Lakin can bounce either of the top 2. I put Paintsville's chance at 58, LC 37, JC + Pikeville 5, everyone else zero. All subject to change of course.

Paintsville may very well be the best overall team (they’re pretty dang good) but we do have to base our opinions somewhat on what has happened on the field. 

Lawrence County and Painstville have both beat Pikeville, (tho Pikeville has beaten Paintsville as well) JC, Martin Co, Belfry, and Pburg. Both have had a bad loss to a couple decent teams. Lawrence County has beaten 2 teams Huntington and Pikeville that has beaten Paintsville. While it’s knit picking it’s still facts. Both are great teams and I don’t really know who the favorite is right now. But based maybe solely on the Huntington game and Lawrence County having Blevins on the hill I have to put LC ahead of Paintsville at the moment. Also every member of Lawrence County’s starting 9 is hitting over .300 at the moment. While Paintsville has more pop at the plate I believe Lawrence County is more consistent with the bats. Paintsville has good arms but do they have a kid that can compete with Blevins on the mound because if LC sees Paintsville in the region tourney that’s who’ll they’ll be seeing?

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Pikeville's only shot IMO is win their district (mortal lock), not draw JC in the first round and use their 4-6 pitchers to advance, use Clark in semis if it's JC and Lakin if it's Paintsville or LC in semis, then you still have Clark or Lakin in finals. But Pikeville not the best hitting or fielding team so pitching will have to win the region.

Hitting hurts Pikeville the most IMO. Draws mean everything when it comes to tourney time.

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Lawrence County’s best draw would be the 59th districts 2 seed then the winner of say Belfry 60th 1seed and JC 57th 2seed in the 2nd round. Both JC and Belfry would have to burn their number 1’s in that game. That would set LC up about perfect. Lord knows in 2019 they had to run the gauntlet to win the region. So, they’re due a break when it comes to draws lol.

You say you have to base opinions on what has happened on the field, but Paintsville and Lawrence haven't been on the field together. To be clear I don't like Paintsville or Lawrence but I am telling you that if Lawrence's ace doesn't go against Paintsville I will take Paintsville all day long. I'm wrong all the time and so are you, if we knew what will actually happen in the 15th tourney they wouldn't have to play it.