[ronald_reagan]

Everything is trending to a warmer solution. Every model out now shows us at least starting out as rain. Honestly, I wouldn't look for more than 3 inches in Central KY and maybe an inch in eastern KY. Our only hope is that the models are wrong and this thing shifts once it forms.

BCF4L,

Have you ever seen anything like this? We're 48 hours out...... and still have no agreement. I've saw recent NAM's showing basically NO storm. Tracks/trends are 200-300 miles apart. Its amazing. Precip ranges from .25" to 3"...... Temps range from 25-45. MB's range from 1010 to 990....... Its mind blowing.

The trend though is for a warmer solution as you state. But the final solution has yet to be determined. I'm scared to even offer my own view on this........

[BCF4L]

Well with the NAM's latest run, it shows KY gets thumped with backside snows. It starts out as a heavy rain with flooding potential, then turns into a good 3-5 inch snowfall. The GFS however does not show as much backside snow resulting in the totals I just gave.

The consistency the GFS has shown the past 2 to 3 days, I have no other choice but to believe the GFS has caught onto something, and every other model is going to follow suit. But in answer to your question, I believe the big snows of the 90's showed similar results with inconsistent model runs that ended up hammering us. I'd pretty much expect the opposite here though.

[*Central_Cheer_Chick]

:Clap: Yay!

[ComfortEagle]

Chris Bailey is calling for 1-3 inches in accumulation for Sat. night and Sun. morning.

Likely to start out as a snow/mix Sat. morning, then turn into rain Sat. afternoon. Then, quickly that night, temps will drop probably 9 degrees and we'll get the snow. More accumulation depending on who falls into a snow band.

[BCF4L]

Honesly, noone really knows what it is going to do. One model just came out that shows cold air staying down in Tennessee. Basically all we can do is wait for it to happen

[BlackcatAlum]

Just keep us updated.

[BlackcatAlum]

Here is the current weather forecast for Prestonsburg Saturday through Sunday.

[alfus21]

I'd say flooding will be the main concern the way most of the talking heads are talking about how much rain there will be.

[ronald_reagan]

Latest 12z Euro model has use getting absolutely hammered. I personally don't like the Euro and think that its wrong with its solution.

GFS and NAM show eastern KY getting the shaft. While Central KY is picking up 2-4 inches or so.

This is a very tricky storm, and disagreements between secondary lows, temps, and tracks are causing problems for the forecasters... Let me explain:

A difference in as little as 2-3 degrees with this storm could make the difference between a 2-3 inches of rain and flooding, or having a 20" snow.

[ronald_reagan]

Well guys, looks like once again.... we missed the 'big one', as far as winter precip is concerned. Most models are now showing the primary low passing nearly overhead here in Lexington. Flooding rains are very likely from I-75 and east throughout the state. The only chance it seems for a nice snow is if the system slows dramatically upon passing through the area... which at this point seems highly unlikely.

To put into perspective, what we 'could' have got. Here is a map detailing what Ill, Indiana, and Ohio will get. The Ohio being the dividing line of who gets heavy rain, and who gets heavy snow. As I said, 50-100 miles makes all the difference. So the chance of accumulating significant snowfall for central ky stands at about 30%. While Eastern Ky is probably about >20% at this point. When you deal with weather, remember to never rule anything out... until the storm has passed.

As you can see, some parts of southern Ill, Indiana, and much of Ohio will see more than a foot of snow, locally 16-18". Places further north and east by the time this storm wraps up, could see well over two feet!!

[Image: http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/..._MW084.gif]

[ronald_reagan]

I'll update around 11:30 or 12:00 after all the new models come out. Pray for a southern shift, and that the secondary low REALLY winds up before getting to far north of us! Then... BOOM! :Clap:

[ronald_reagan]

Its interesting to note, this is a snow DEPTH forecast... and NOT a snow FALL forecast. At one point, this forecast is showing about 6" on the ground in Louisville, and 1-2 inches for Lexington. It melts off rather quickly, probably due to ground temps and/or rain.

[BCF4L]

I honestly don't see how Chris Bailey is getting that Central and Eastern KY will see 2-4 inches and Southern KY 1-2. Everything I have looked at shows that the majority of the moisture will be gone by the time the cold air arrives. But Chris does have "in house models" that WKYT have provided him. So who knows what they are showing. It might snow quite a bit on Sunday, but due to the rain, and warm temps, don't expect much of it to stick.

These models are still fluctuating however. No model has shown the same solution twice, so really, who knows what it will do?

[ronald_reagan]

I honestly don't see how Chris Bailey is getting that Central and Eastern KY will see 2-4 inches and Southern KY 1-2. Everything I have looked at shows that the majority of the moisture will be gone by the time the cold air arrives. But Chris does have "in house models" that WKYT have provided him. So who knows what they are showing. It might snow quite a bit on Sunday, but due to the rain, and warm temps, don't expect much of it to stick.

These models are still fluctuating however. No model has shown the same solution twice, so really, who knows what it will do?

Latest NAM 12z looks horrible for winter weather lovers. Farther to the west than previous runs.

I just don't get how we're 30 hours out right now, and no two solutions are the same. I've seen 250 mile differences in the freeze line over the past 24 hours. I think we're going to have to wait until we get into the 12 hour timeframe and start looking at extreme short term models.

I have about 10-20% confidence at this point, of a major winter event. Wrap around snow looks weak... it seems as if the coastal low is going to steal this storms thunder. And late term moisture as well.

[ronald_reagan]

latest gfs 12z rolling out as we speak.....

[BCF4L]

It will show a snowstorm for Chicago

[ronald_reagan]

It will show a snowstorm for Chicago

seriously though, go check it out.

wrap around is looking very promising as well as temps. i'm showing up to a .10 on 3 straight 6 hour precips, and 1 showing up to .25".... all under freezing, with 2 of the 6 hour periods being WELL below freezing... indicating a 12-15:1 ratio... this model is looking better for wrap around than the previous. I would go with 4+ lexington, 2-4 eastern mountains, 4-6 for ashland/ironton. But then again, this is just 1 model. And it doesn't jive well with others.

[BCF4L]

Too warm during the first part of the storm for much to stick. We could see heavy snow, but will take a bit to stick.

[ronald_reagan]

Too warm during the first part of the storm for much to stick. We could see heavy snow, but will take a bit to stick.

You really think so? Not that I'm questioning your judgement, because I'll surely learn from you the more that I read of your posts.....

Its just, I see less than -10 C during a 12 hour period. This would be around 10-15 degrees or so. The ground could be 45 degrees and it would stick.

BCF4L, do you have any good websites besides model showing... just educational websites themselves? I've been caught up by all of this lately... and its captivated me. I don't seem to be able to get enough... kinda like Crack.

[ronald_reagan]

BCF4L,

I'm also noticing a trend on upcoming GFS and NAM models, showing a 100-200 mile more southern track of Pacific northwest storms..... Hitting middle and southern Oregon, instead of the Pugent Sound area.... Can you tell me how this, if it even does, effects winter weather on the east coast?

[~Pirates Pack a Punch~]

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

[BCF4L]

BCF4L,

I'm also noticing a trend on upcoming GFS and NAM models, showing a 100-200 mile more southern track of Pacific northwest storms..... Hitting middle and southern Oregon, instead of the Pugent Sound area.... Can you tell me how this, if it even does, effects winter weather on the east coast?

Sounds to me like it could be a bad thing for the East Coast. Makes me think the NAO is turning back positive, but I honesly don't know. Haven't dealt with weather long enough to be sure.

[ronald_reagan]

Sounds to me like it could be a bad thing for the East Coast. Makes me think the NAO is turning back positive, but I honesly don't know. Haven't dealt with weather long enough to be sure.

Hey at least you were honest. I would have believed your lies lol

I didn't know if that meant a perpetual trough? or if it blocked off an artic flush....

It was just a trend that I was noticing. Thanks!

[BCF4L]

You really think so? Not that I'm questioning your judgement, because I'll surely learn from you the more that I read of your posts.....

Its just, I see less than -10 C during a 12 hour period. This would be around 10-15 degrees or so. The ground could be 45 degrees and it would stick.

BCF4L, do you have any good websites besides model showing... just educational websites themselves? I've been caught up by all of this lately... and its captivated me. I don't seem to be able to get enough... kinda like Crack.

It is definitely addicting. But really, for all I know, it could turn out to be a blizzard. Honestly, with the trends of the latest models, and the way KY weather has been the past few Winters, I doubt that anything will stick. Just too many things going against us right now. If we could get the moisture to start transferring to the seconday low that will be forming in NC, then we would be in for some fun I believe. But right now the models are showing a slow transfer meaning most of the precip will fall as rain. The slow transfer means that once the low is crossing over KY, if it doesn't transfer to the secondary low, then you will see the WAA really pull into eastern KY. That's what the models are showing now. If the transfer is quicker, then the warm air stays to the south meaning more frozen precip. The only problem with a faster transfer is we have less moisture to work with. So really its a lose-lose situation either way.