Thread Rating:
10-16-2014, 07:52 PM
FWIW,
Just doing some real quick calculations. In event of a 3 way tiebreaker LC would definitely have to have a Belfry loss to JC and a win over Pburg to even have a shot. In addition, they would need some help either from Fairview or Breathitt winning out, and would need either Southwestern, CAK, or Henry Clay to lose to someone they should beat.
As eluded to..Friday is the District Championship. Pike Central, even in a 3 way tie, is highly unlikely to have enough points to be anything but 3rd place on the first tie breaker. Pike Central essentially has no possibility to have more points than Belfry. Their only hope at best is a 2 seed if somehow LC beats Pburg and edges Belfry, then a head to head win over Belfry would give them 2nd place in the District.
As of today:
BELFRY:
Southwestern 6
Henry Clay 5
CAK 4
Gallia Acad. 3
Sheldon Clark 1
Harlan Co 1
*Johnson Central 7
Current Points- 18
Most Likely Projected: 23
Lawrence County
Boyd 2
Rowan 1
Fairview 4
Breathitt 2
East Carter 0
Sheldon Clark 1
*Pburg 7
Current Points- 9
Most Likely Projected: 16
Pike Central:
Letcher Central 5
Whitley 3
Somerset 0
*Sheldon Clark 1
*Perry Central 1
Current Points- 8
Most Likely Projected 16
Just doing some real quick calculations. In event of a 3 way tiebreaker LC would definitely have to have a Belfry loss to JC and a win over Pburg to even have a shot. In addition, they would need some help either from Fairview or Breathitt winning out, and would need either Southwestern, CAK, or Henry Clay to lose to someone they should beat.
As eluded to..Friday is the District Championship. Pike Central, even in a 3 way tie, is highly unlikely to have enough points to be anything but 3rd place on the first tie breaker. Pike Central essentially has no possibility to have more points than Belfry. Their only hope at best is a 2 seed if somehow LC beats Pburg and edges Belfry, then a head to head win over Belfry would give them 2nd place in the District.
As of today:
BELFRY:
Southwestern 6
Henry Clay 5
CAK 4
Gallia Acad. 3
Sheldon Clark 1
Harlan Co 1
*Johnson Central 7
Current Points- 18
Most Likely Projected: 23
Lawrence County
Boyd 2
Rowan 1
Fairview 4
Breathitt 2
East Carter 0
Sheldon Clark 1
*Pburg 7
Current Points- 9
Most Likely Projected: 16
Pike Central:
Letcher Central 5
Whitley 3
Somerset 0
*Sheldon Clark 1
*Perry Central 1
Current Points- 8
Most Likely Projected 16
![[-]](https://bluegrassrivals.com/forum/images/lifestyle/collapse.png)
10-16-2014, 10:30 PM
Bob Seger Wrote:Ok, Ok, all kidding aside for just a moment...Of course he will. Rock and his boyfriend I understand will both be wearing matching ensembles. It's supposed to be a tightly held secret, they both wanted to surprise and dazzle the crowd together.. Hey, I've always been a blabber mouth, what can I say?
:yawn:
nicker:
10-16-2014, 10:34 PM
dawg fan Wrote:Whats a matter segar you get lonley on the johnson central thread? Nobody to talk to over there. So you have to come trolling overhere on the belfry and lc thread. O that's right nobody cares what johnson central is doing!!!!:hilarious:
Or is not going to do :Clap: :biglmao:
10-17-2014, 01:25 AM
EKUAlum05 Wrote:FWIW,Thank you EKU. Very informative. I had no idea so much went into a tie breaker.
Just doing some real quick calculations. In event of a 3 way tiebreaker LC would definitely have to have a Belfry loss to JC and a win over Pburg to even have a shot. In addition, they would need some help either from Fairview or Breathitt winning out, and would need either Southwestern, CAK, or Henry Clay to lose to someone they should beat.
As eluded to..Friday is the District Championship. Pike Central, even in a 3 way tie, is highly unlikely to have enough points to be anything but 3rd place on the first tie breaker. Pike Central essentially has no possibility to have more points than Belfry. Their only hope at best is a 2 seed if somehow LC beats Pburg and edges Belfry, then a head to head win over Belfry would give them 2nd place in the District.
As of today:
BELFRY:
Southwestern 6
Henry Clay 5
CAK 4
Gallia Acad. 3
Sheldon Clark 1
Harlan Co 1
*Johnson Central 7
Current Points- 18
Most Likely Projected: 23
Lawrence County
Boyd 2
Rowan 1
Fairview 4
Breathitt 2
East Carter 0
Sheldon Clark 1
*Pburg 7
Current Points- 9
Most Likely Projected: 16
Pike Central:
Letcher Central 5
Whitley 3
Somerset 0
*Sheldon Clark 1
*Perry Central 1
Current Points- 8
Most Likely Projected 3
10-17-2014, 02:01 AM
Hey KyRock I was just wondering is that a self portrait ??
10-17-2014, 04:06 AM
If LC can keep it close the first half and build some confidence this will be a great game plus these two teams will meet again for the region title in a few weeks. I would love to have home field through out the playoffs in Louisa. Let's earn some respect from the Pirates. Go Dawgs!!!
10-17-2014, 04:27 AM
BillyRay Wrote:LC 22 Belfry 21 in a thriller. Go Dawgs!!!
Hate to break your Achy Breaky Heart Billy Ray, but 28-14 Belfry.
10-17-2014, 07:14 AM
Good Luck to both teams! I hope everyone stays healthy and Belfry Faithful has safe travels. Tailgating at the entrance as you go in, be sure to stop by. As for the game tomorrow night is not the one I'm wanting. It would be nice to win but I am wanting the "W" a couple weeks from now.
10-17-2014, 08:00 AM
Coach's have made small adjustment to the lineup on the def Line and the def backs coaches r starting some of best players on def I like the some changes I believe we will have better def game I hope 57 get to play he's been sick 35 is better he was sick last week. Good luck boys
10-17-2014, 01:40 PM
Belfry-42
LC- 14
I don't see a team only beating SC by 14 being able to stay with the Pirates. I know you shouldn't compare other games like that, but come on..
The Pirates have made some changes in the backfield considering X and Caleb are both out this week, and I think it's something they should have considered doing a long time ago. Excited to see how this kid runs/blocks tonight! I hope everyone travels safe and we have an injury free game!
LC- 14
I don't see a team only beating SC by 14 being able to stay with the Pirates. I know you shouldn't compare other games like that, but come on..
The Pirates have made some changes in the backfield considering X and Caleb are both out this week, and I think it's something they should have considered doing a long time ago. Excited to see how this kid runs/blocks tonight! I hope everyone travels safe and we have an injury free game!
10-17-2014, 02:00 PM
KyRock Wrote:Good Luck to both teams! I hope everyone stays healthy and Belfry Faithful has safe travels. Tailgating at the entrance as you go in, be sure to stop by. As for the game tomorrow night is not the one I'm wanting. It would be nice to win but I am wanting the "W" a couple weeks from now.
Thank you for being good this week! I knew you could do it!!!
Safe travels to the game everyone. Hope both teams play their best game and no injuries!!!!
10-17-2014, 02:01 PM
Chasin Bucs Wrote:Belfry-42
LC- 14
I don't see a team only beating SC by 14 being able to stay with the Pirates. I know you shouldn't compare other games like that, but come on..
The Pirates have made some changes in the backfield considering X and Caleb are both out this week, and I think it's something they should have considered doing a long time ago. Excited to see how this kid runs/blocks tonight! I hope everyone travels safe and we have an injury free game!
Don't see a team getting beat by tiny 1a pikeville being all that tuff, don't think should compare other games like that, but come on!
10-17-2014, 02:06 PM
dawg fan Wrote:Don't see a team getting beat by tiny 1a pikeville being all that tuff, don't think should compare other games like that, but come on!
Pikeville also put a running clock on that Sheldon Clark team Lawrence needed a fortunate call on an onside kick to beat.
irateSho:redboxer:
10-17-2014, 02:36 PM
Chasin Bucs Wrote:Belfry-42
LC- 14
I don't see a team only beating SC by 14 being able to stay with the Pirates. I know you shouldn't compare other games like that, but come on..
The Pirates have made some changes in the backfield considering X and Caleb are both out this week, and I think it's something they should have considered doing a long time ago. Excited to see how this kid runs/blocks tonight! I hope everyone travels safe and we have an injury free game!
I have seen very good talented teams over the years that had the disadvantage of always playing down to their competition. I'm not saying that's what happened against Sheldon Clark because I wasn't there, however it is something that happens, and several good teams are guilty of it. Tonight will prove if that was the case. It should clear up any confusion as to Lawrence County's strength and talent.
10-17-2014, 04:14 PM
Belfry is averaging 34 points/game, mostly against above-average competition, while giving up 10 ppg. LC also puts points on the board at 36/game, but gives up way to many, 25/game. With that glaring stat, I can't see Belfry scoring below their average. And, unless points are need, Coach Haywood rarely will go above 45 points no matter what.
While LC can score, I'm not sure their opponents this year have been as strong defensively. LC has a great record, and has played up in class a couple of games, but have struggled with the 1-A schools this year. Still, there is no shame in that (re, Pikeville), as some 1-A schools are good regardless of class.
The Belfry defense has played some good offenses this year, with a variety of styles. Sure, they are generally young and can be vulnerable no doubt. But they have had success at allowing 10 ppg, despite giving up 29 in one game, 20 in another.
I think LC is improved, but I don't see it in their favor. I'm going with:
Belfry 35,
LC 13
Gut feeling says 35-7
While LC can score, I'm not sure their opponents this year have been as strong defensively. LC has a great record, and has played up in class a couple of games, but have struggled with the 1-A schools this year. Still, there is no shame in that (re, Pikeville), as some 1-A schools are good regardless of class.
The Belfry defense has played some good offenses this year, with a variety of styles. Sure, they are generally young and can be vulnerable no doubt. But they have had success at allowing 10 ppg, despite giving up 29 in one game, 20 in another.
I think LC is improved, but I don't see it in their favor. I'm going with:
Belfry 35,
LC 13
Gut feeling says 35-7
10-17-2014, 05:16 PM
Belfry wins again. 42 - 14. Good luck Pirates.
10-17-2014, 05:20 PM
A lot of talk has been made about how much the Dogs have improved from last season. Maybe a few skill positions are better, maybe they are a little bigger, a little faster. This however has only translated into 1 more win (Equal if you want to make the Fairview adjustment) than they had coming into this game than they did last year.
The improvement however hasn't shown in the actual production. Last year LC came into this game having scored 330 points, that's 45 points more than they have scored this season. They also find themselves giving up 15 more points compared to last season. Last year at this point LC was +148 Net points compared to +88 this year. That's -60 point swing from last years net.
A very, very poor schedule is why they currently sit at 7 - 1.
To be fair in the analysis Belfry has also scored fewer points this year than they did last, to the tune of 33 fewer (2014 - 236 points for, 2013 - 269 points for). It's no secret to anyone that the offense is still working out kinks.
However Defensively Belfry is much improved. At this point last year Belfry had allowed 117 points, shutout no one, and held only Sheldon Clark to fewer than 12 points. Allowing 47 fewer points this season (70 total) the Pirate D is much improved, with 2 shutouts on the year. They've also held 5 of their opponents to 7 points or less (this includes a 5 - 2 Henry Clay team that averages 42 ppg).
Unlike LC, Belfry has increased their Net points on the year by +74 (2013 Net 92 pts, 2014 net 166 pts)
I see overall improvement from Belfry over last year while I don't seen any from LC. Only Pikeville has played Belfry competitively. Harlan Co did put 20 points on the board but that was mostly against 2nd and 3rd string defenders. If Belfry losses this game it will be because Belfry beats Belfry.
Belfry 31
LC 12
The improvement however hasn't shown in the actual production. Last year LC came into this game having scored 330 points, that's 45 points more than they have scored this season. They also find themselves giving up 15 more points compared to last season. Last year at this point LC was +148 Net points compared to +88 this year. That's -60 point swing from last years net.
A very, very poor schedule is why they currently sit at 7 - 1.
To be fair in the analysis Belfry has also scored fewer points this year than they did last, to the tune of 33 fewer (2014 - 236 points for, 2013 - 269 points for). It's no secret to anyone that the offense is still working out kinks.
However Defensively Belfry is much improved. At this point last year Belfry had allowed 117 points, shutout no one, and held only Sheldon Clark to fewer than 12 points. Allowing 47 fewer points this season (70 total) the Pirate D is much improved, with 2 shutouts on the year. They've also held 5 of their opponents to 7 points or less (this includes a 5 - 2 Henry Clay team that averages 42 ppg).
Unlike LC, Belfry has increased their Net points on the year by +74 (2013 Net 92 pts, 2014 net 166 pts)
I see overall improvement from Belfry over last year while I don't seen any from LC. Only Pikeville has played Belfry competitively. Harlan Co did put 20 points on the board but that was mostly against 2nd and 3rd string defenders. If Belfry losses this game it will be because Belfry beats Belfry.
Belfry 31
LC 12
10-17-2014, 08:09 PM
PaytoPlay Wrote:TJ Dotson going to get some carries? He is a physical kid who I think could run with an attitude.
Word has it that Dotson will get some touches at HB!
10-17-2014, 08:45 PM
I agree with 74 to certain degree something kids let emotion get in the way Sheldon Clark is a big rivalry they alway play so hard the kids had some personal things overcome on offense the O line is clicking right now def is going to be the deciding factor these kids up for this game
10-17-2014, 08:55 PM
AtlPirateFan Wrote:A lot of talk has been made about how much the Dogs have improved from last season. Maybe a few skill positions are better, maybe they are a little bigger, a little faster. This however has only translated into 1 more win (Equal if you want to make the Fairview adjustment) than they had coming into this game than they did last year.
The improvement however hasn't shown in the actual production. Last year LC came into this game having scored 330 points, that's 45 points more than they have scored this season. They also find themselves giving up 15 more points compared to last season. Last year at this point LC was +148 Net points compared to +88 this year. That's -60 point swing from last years net.
A very, very poor schedule is why they currently sit at 7 - 1.
To be fair in the analysis Belfry has also scored fewer points this year than they did last, to the tune of 33 fewer (2014 - 236 points for, 2013 - 269 points for). It's no secret to anyone that the offense is still working out kinks.
However Defensively Belfry is much improved. At this point last year Belfry had allowed 117 points, shutout no one, and held only Sheldon Clark to fewer than 12 points. Allowing 47 fewer points this season (70 total) the Pirate D is much improved, with 2 shutouts on the year. They've also held 5 of their opponents to 7 points or less (this includes a 5 - 2 Henry Clay team that averages 42 ppg).
Unlike LC, Belfry has increased their Net points on the year by +74 (2013 Net 92 pts, 2014 net 166 pts)
I see overall improvement from Belfry over last year while I don't seen any from LC. Only Pikeville has played Belfry competitively. Harlan Co did put 20 points on the board but that was mostly against 2nd and 3rd string defenders. If Belfry losses this game it will be because Belfry beats Belfry.
Belfry 31
LC 12
You make some valid points, but one thing you have to remember is that lc was up big by the end of the third quarter in 4 of those games and the jv generally played the 4th quarter of those games. Lc has better athletes this year than last, but they hade better football players last year. For a lot of these kids it is their 1st year of high school football and they are still learning but they are getting better game by game. Belfry is a very good team but they are not close to the team they had last year, last years team thumped pikeville, I don't see pikeville improving that much I think it is a combination of pikeville getting a little better and belfry backing up a little. But belfry is pretty young this year and have the young talent to be good for years to come.
Users browsing this thread: 10 Guest(s)
