Class 3A, Reg. 4, Dis. 8 Tie-Breaker *(EDITED 10-24)*

**EKUAlum05** · (This post was last modified: 10-24-2010, 10:56 AM by EKUAlum05.)

Per:
http://www.khsaa.org/handbook/tournament...trules.pdf we would then go to the 2nd tiebreaker which allows each team to pick 4 wins (involving teams not associated with the tie) and receive one point for each win that opponent has picked up. In other words, Belfry would add Pikeville and if the Panthers finish 6-4 the Pirates would gain 6 points.

Below are each team and the applicable teams that they have either already or defeated, or remain on the schedule.

BELFRY

Pikeville- 6 points, 6 projected @ Sheldon Clark
Whitley- 4 points, 5 projected vs. Rockcastle County (4-5)
LCC- 2 point, 3 projected vs. Lou. Moore (3-6)
Holy Cross- 4 points, 5 projected @ Bishop Brossart (6-3)
ER- 4 points, 5 projected vs. Tug Valley, WV
@johnson Central- 7 points, 7 projected

18 points current
24 points possible high (Pikeville defeats SC, Belfry defeats JC)
18 possible low (ER,CHC, Whitley, and Pikeville lose, Belfry loses to JC)
21 points likely

PCC
Phelps- 2 points BYE
[B]Tolsia- 2 points, 2 projected @Lawrence County (7-2)
SV- 3 points, 3 projected vs. Pulaski County (8-1)[/B]
Boyd County- 1 point, 1 projected @ashland (6-3)
KCC- 0 points, 0 projected @ Allen Central (4-5)
East Ridge- 4 points, 5 projected vs. Tug Valley, WV
Pburg- 8 points, 8 projected

11 points current
19 points possible high ( Tolsia, SV, ER win and they upset Pburg)
14 points likely

SC:
Frankfort- 7 points, 7 projected @ Danville (6-3)
Lawrence County- 7 points, 8 projected vs. Tolsia, WV (2-6)
ER- 4 points, 5 projected vs. Tug Valley, WV
Pikeville- 6 points, 6 projected

18 points current
27 points possible high (Frankfort, LC, and ER win, beat Pikeville)
26 points likely

THE TIPPING POINT

SHELDON CLARK VS. PIKEVILLE

If SC wins:
- SC wins district, this gives them 24 points regardless...the best Belfry could possibly do is 23 points, Pike Central has no shot.

1. SC 2. Belfry 3. PC 4. ER

IF SC loses and Belfry wins:
- Belfry would have a min of 22 and SC would have a max of 21 and a min of 18 , Belfry wins the district
- PC would have to defeat Pburg... this would give them a max of 20 and most likely an 18.. SC would then have to have Frankfort, LC, and East Ridge lose to finish 2nd.

More than likely

1. Belfry 2. SC 3. PC 4. ER

IF SC loses, and Belfry loses:
- SC could have a max of 21 and a min of 18
- Belfry could have a max of 22, and a min of 18
- PC could have a max of 20 and a min of 11.

So, for SC to win district in this scenario :
- PCC loses to Pburg, Frankfort and LC wins.. Holy Cross and Whitley lose

Belfry to win district in this scenario:
- Pcc loses, Holy Cross and Whitley win

PCC to win district in this scenario:
- Beat Pburg and have Frankfort, Lawrence, HC, and Whitley all lose.

IN CONCLUSION:

The most likely outcomes

SC beats Pikeville:
1. SC 2. Belfry 3. PC 4. ER

SC loses to Pikeville:
1 Belfry 2. SC 3. PC 4. ER

**Panther Thunder** · 10-18-2010, 02:28 PM

Great breakdown!

**EKUAlum05** · 10-18-2010, 02:43 PM

Long story short:

PC is playing for pride this Friday and the very distant chance that they may somehow have a miracle happen to get them either a 1 or 2 seed.

Belfry is hoping PC wins and then they will be cheering like crazy for Pikeville.

hawkeye · 10-18-2010, 02:56 PM

Pike central playing 9 games is going to hurt them.

**Cardinalfootballguy** · 10-18-2010, 02:57 PM

Thanks for this breakdown... Hopefully we wont have to use it though.
v

**Real Badman** · 10-18-2010, 03:13 PM

Lets throw this crazy variable in your mix. ER beats Belfry, does that give SC the championship since PCC lost to Belfry? Or would it be winner take all?

**EKUAlum05** · 10-18-2010, 05:03 PM

Real Badman Wrote:Lets throw this crazy variable in your mix. ER beats Belfry, does that give SC the championship since PCC lost to Belfry? Or would it be winner take all?

Without going through all the stuff again... HAHA

If ER was to beat Belfry then it would be winner take all. If SC wins then it would be a 3 way tie for 2nd in which it more than likely ends up 1. SC 2. Belfry 3. PC 4.ER

If PC wins then it ends up 1. PCC 2. SC 3. East Ridge 4. Belfry.

**Cardinalfootballguy** · 10-18-2010, 06:10 PM

EKUAlum05 Wrote:Without going through all the stuff again... HAHA

If ER was to beat Belfry then it would be winner take all. If SC wins then it would be a 3 way tie for 2nd in which it more than likely ends up 1. SC 2. Belfry 3. PC 4.ER

If PC wins then it ends up 1. PCC 2. SC 3. East Ridge 4. Belfry.

That's a lot of if's.. Thanks for the breakdown EKU
1c97fb29-5268-4822-bcc2-f53dfac0ec2f
1.03.01

**Cardinalfootballguy** · 10-18-2010, 06:10 PM

That's a lot of if's.. Thanks for the breakdown EKU

**EKUAlum05** · 10-22-2010, 11:47 PM

TTT

I will update in a couple days to reflect this weekends results

**Panther Thunder** · 10-22-2010, 11:49 PM

EKUAlum05 Wrote:TTT

I will update in a couple days to reflect this weekends results

You, sir, deserve pay for what you do for this site.

**EKUAlum05** · 10-22-2010, 11:58 PM

Panther Thunder Wrote:You, sir, deserve pay for what you do for this site.

Convince your boys to upset Sheldon Clark and we'll call it even :biggrin:

**Real Badman** · 10-22-2010, 11:59 PM

As long as Pike Central don't win, I'm happy haha =)

**cuppett777** · 10-23-2010, 12:01 AM

so looks like Belfry plays who 1st rd,west carter?

**EKUAlum05** · 10-23-2010, 12:06 AM

cuppett777 Wrote:so looks like Belfry plays who 1st rd,west carter?

Unless Pikeville beats Sheldon Clark...that appears to be the 1st Rd Matchup

Right now:

1. SC vs. 4. Fleming Co
2. Russell vs. 3. PCC

1. Mason County vs. 4. East Ridge
2. Belfry vs. 3. West Carter

It may be a bit controversial to say...but if the past couple years are any indication then Belfry may have a better draw to remain a 2 seed Wink

**cuppett777** · 10-23-2010, 12:22 AM

EKUAlum05 Wrote:Unless Pikeville beats Sheldon Clark...that appears to be the 1st Rd Matchup

Right now:

1. SC vs. 4. Fleming Co
2. Russell vs. 3. PCC

1. Mason County vs. 4. East Ridge
2. Belfry vs. 3. West Carter

It may be a bit controversial to say...but if the past couple years are any indication then Belfry may have a better draw to remain a 2 seed

yes sir,looks like SC/PCC will be playing again in round 2 at SC,then if they will there 2 games they could get rematch with either SC/PCC because i dont see either one getting beat there 1st game...

cardsfan98 · 10-23-2010, 07:44 AM

How awesome would it be to have them at the Rock.. I hope this pans out. I vowed not to go to anymore games because of my 1 and 3 year old...but I may just have to find a babysitter for that night.

bucslover68 · 10-24-2010, 01:01 AM

A lot of people, including yours truly, figured that Belfry would have to beat JC to have a chance in the tiebreaker, but the fates of the Pirates and Cards really depend more on the outcome of the Pikeville/SC game. SC wins and they are District Champs. Pikeville wins and its a good chance that Belfry would be the number one seed.

**EKUAlum05** · 10-24-2010, 10:58 AM

Revised to reflect this past weekend

SC about a 80% chance to finish 1st
Belfry about a 15% chance
PC about a 5% chance

**RunItUpTheGut** · 10-24-2010, 11:04 AM

Just to throw something in....Whitley will be without their best player this week due to an ejection, and even worse its there fullback the whole backbone of their offense, Whitley can still beat Rockcastle, i just believe it will be a little closer now.

hawkeye · 10-25-2010, 07:12 AM

According to KHSAA you can ONLY count 4 games.

**EKUAlum05** · 10-25-2010, 07:57 AM

hawkeye Wrote:According to KHSAA you can ONLY count 4 games.

That's all I was counting..

CoachM · 10-25-2010, 08:16 AM

I agree that the 2 seed is where you want to finish in this district other than being on the road. Finishing # 2 allows you to stay away from the teams in your district in the 2nd round, which means if Belfry finishes second they wouldn't have to play PC or SC until the regional finals. However this turns out it will be exciting, and with the addition LC what will this district be like next year can't wait to see!

Buc-a-roo · 10-25-2010, 10:56 AM

Here is a link to the KHSAA page that keeps current tie breaker calculations

http://www.khsaa.org/football/2010/tiebr...ations.htm

HoBo · 10-25-2010, 01:04 PM

The way I have it SC wins unless they have there head up something lol and dont show up and play pikeville. The race is in 2nd and 3rd. Just have to wait for Friday.

Buc-a-roo · 10-25-2010, 01:25 PM

The race is for 1st/2nd, but it ain't much of a race.

If SC beats Pikeville, they win. If they don't, then Belfry likely wins.

Pike Central is in 3rd no matter what.

**EKUAlum05** · 10-25-2010, 01:41 PM

Buc-a-roo Wrote:The race is for 1st/2nd, but it ain't much of a race.

If SC beats Pikeville, they win. If they don't, then Belfry likely wins.

Pike Central is in 3rd no matter what.

Correct..even if Belfry and SC lose, as well as all their opponents who will be counting points, it is technically mathematically impossible for PC to overcome Belfry.

The Pirates currently have 18 points and if SC loses it guarantees Pikeville will score an additional point to push the minimum to 19.

The very best PC could possibly do is 19 points, and according to the KHSAA rules Belfry would then win out as a result of winning head to head. Even if somehow all 3 teams finished with 19 points, then an additional game would be added allowing Belfry to pick up an additional 4 or 5 points on everyone.

Additionally, even in the worst case scenario Pike Central DEPENDS on East Ridge's point total to count towards their max. Due to this, the ver best PC could hope for is a tie with Belfry for 2nd/3rd. Belfry owns the next level tiebreaker whether it be head to head or adding another opponent to the total.

Pike Central is mathemtically relegated to 3rd place no matter what. There is no possible way for these teams to tie with 19 points due to the Pikeville/East Ridge situations.

**EKUAlum05** · 10-25-2010, 01:46 PM

Bet Chapman wishes he could have played someone....anyone.. for that 10th game now.

Imagine if PC could have played someone like Betsy Layne in Week 0. The Bobcats would have given PC 6 points and I am sure they would have rather played PC then Bishop Brossart.

Bigdaddy1 · 10-25-2010, 02:08 PM

Great Breakdown

Buc-a-roo · 10-25-2010, 09:26 PM

EKUAlum05 Wrote:Correct..even if Belfry and SC lose, as well as all their opponents who will be counting points, it is technically mathematically impossible for PC to overcome Belfry.

The Pirates currently have 18 points and if SC loses it guarantees Pikeville will score an additional point to push the minimum to 19.

The very best PC could possibly do is 19 points, and according to the KHSAA rules Belfry would then win out as a result of winning head to head. Even if somehow all 3 teams finished with 19 points, then an additional game would be added allowing Belfry to pick up an additional 4 or 5 points on everyone.

Additionally, even in the worst case scenario Pike Central DEPENDS on East Ridge's point total to count towards their max. Due to this, the ver best PC could hope for is a tie with Belfry for 2nd/3rd. Belfry owns the next level tiebreaker whether it be head to head or adding another opponent to the total.

Pike Central is mathemtically relegated to 3rd place no matter what. There is no possible way for these teams to tie with 19 points due to the Pikeville/East Ridge situations.

I don't think the bolded is correct, not in a 3 way tie.

I think if two of the teams are tied after adding the points from 4 victorys, then they get to add the points from one more victory (a 5th win) to settle it. Head to head is never used for a spot in the 3 way tie breaker.