Thread Rating:
12-10-2009, 12:29 AM
Pay-Per-View Bouts
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve
Preliminary Bouts
Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia
Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson
Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch
Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
DeMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia
Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve
Preliminary Bouts
Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia
Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson
Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch
Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
DeMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia
Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant
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12-10-2009, 12:30 AM
UFC lightweight championship
B.J. Penn versus Diego Sanchez
http://sports.espn.go.com/extra/mma/news...id=4728969
The breakdown: After nearly three years of struggling and ultimately failing to earn a title bout in the UFC welterweight division, Sanchez made the overdue move down to lightweight and now finds himself lined up for a shot at the strap. The downside? The gold rests around the waist of Penn, who has not lost at 155 pounds in almost eight years.
Sanchez would like to work his rabid top game against Penn, but that seems unlikely at best considering that the Hawaiian's impregnable takedown defense and his almost gyroscopic balance make it virtually impossible to catch him off guard. Kenny Florian wasted a lot of time and effort trying to haul down Penn in their bout at UFC 101, and Sanchez would do well to learn the obvious lessons from that fight. Sanchez can use his vastly improved footwork to move in and out against Penn, who prefers a more methodical pace. The tools are there, as Sanchez uses the lead knee and left uppercut quite well from the southpaw stance, and his sneaky left high kick has become a proven brain scrambler. Those are all strikes Sanchez can use effectively against Penn, who relies almost entirely on his hands.
That doesn't mean Penn will find himself overmatched on the feet, though, as Sanchez often leaves his left hand low (especially when he throws a jab or leg kick) and Penn's counter right hand seems custom-made to exploit that fundamental flaw. Both Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida caught Sanchez repeatedly with the right hand in their fights, something Sanchez can't afford against Penn.
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Penn's jab, which has become the backbone of his boxing, represents the other obstacle to Sanchez controlling distance. Sean Sherk tried to move in and out against Penn in their fight at UFC 84 and ate three rounds' worth of jabs for his trouble. Unless Sanchez can find the flaws in Penn that so many have failed to uncover, the same fate awaits him.
The X factor: Sanchez may not be able to take down Penn, but the opposite certainly doesn't hold true. Even if Sanchez can find some success striking with Penn, the gears inevitably will switch and put him on his back at some point against arguably the best grappler in the game. Although hardly a pushover on the mat, Sanchez gears his jiu-jitsu toward holding the top position; when he has had to use his guard, results have been mixed.
The bottom line: Sanchez will try to overwhelm Penn with volume, but he will quickly discover the champion's iron chin and leather skin can easily absorb anything thrown their way. Once Penn finds the range on his jab and the timing on his counter right, feel free to sound your final call; it will be only a matter of time before Sanchez makes a fight-ending mistake. Watch for Penn to drop him late in the third round and notch a ground-and-pound technical knockout, continuing a reign of terror that has no end in sight.
Sherdog.com
Former UFC heavyweight champ Frank Mir's jiu-jitsu will create all kinds of issues for Cheick Kongo.
Frank Mir versus Cheick Kongo
The breakdown: In a key heavyweight bout matching two fighters coming off demoralizing losses, Mir and Kongo could not be more different inside the cage -- though they do share a desperate need for a win. With Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin and Junior dos Santos all sniffing at title shots, the top of the division has grown more crowded than a Wu-Tang Clan family reunion; a defeat for either fighter could result in the road back to the top closing permanently.
The obvious disparities in skill lie on the feet and the mat, as Kongo has proved himself one of the premier strikers in the division and Mir's jiu-jitsu has claimed a number of submission victims. Even more important, however, are Kongo's lacking takedown defense and bizarre habit of working with his back against the cage -- an ongoing tactical error that cuts off the Frenchman's escape routes, allowing his opponents to collapse the pocket and immediately trap him. Mir doesn't have the striking to survive many exchanges with Kongo, but he does have a slick lead uppercut-left hook combination that allows him to close distance and set up the outside leg sweep he favors. That move should be especially effective against Kongo, who stands far too upright and lacks the balance to keep his spindly legs from being a prime target for any takedown-minded foe.
Once on the mat, Kongo often fails to recover guard; his main strategy seems to revolve around surrendering his back in a gambit that rarely pays off. Kongo won't need more than a handful of strikes to turn the former heavyweight champion's face into Silly Putty, but his strategic gaffes are far too glaring for a fighter of Mir's intelligence to overlook.
The X factor: How Mir goes about getting inside will be critical. Kongo has shown a knack for posting against the cage and using underhooks to fend off takedowns, but he struggles when opponents get deep on him with trips or suck his base out with single- or double-leg takedowns. How Mir sets up the takedown will prove just as important, as rushing Kongo with anything wide or sloppy will leave him open to the titanic Frenchman's crushing jab-right cross combination.
The bottom line: Formulating a proper game plan has become increasingly fundamental as the sport has grown, and Kongo's struggles have a lot to do with his relying on landing strikes before getting taken down. Mir, meanwhile, has developed into a cerebral fighter who homes in on his opponent's weaknesses and has an actual plan to expose them. The tap-or-snap special awaits Kongo: Expect Mir to trap him against the cage, land a trip and quickly latch hold of whatever limb his foe leaves exposed.
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Saturday's bout could be Kenny Florian's last chance to prove he's worthy of another title shot.
Kenny Florian versus Clay Guida
The breakdown: The early front-runner for "Fight of the Night" features Florian matching wits and fists with Guida in a bout that neither man can afford to lose if he has any serious plans about staying in the title picture.
Guida's failings in his memorable fight with Diego Sanchez in "The Ultimate Fighter" Season 9 finale were his willingness to brawl with a superior striker and his inability to move past Sanchez's guard or work ground-and-pound from inside it. Guida must avoid such strategic errors against Florian, who will be difficult to take down because of his excellent lateral movement and ability to control range with accurate strikes. Cutting off angles and quickly closing the pocket will be vital for Guida, as Florian has shown himself to be a cerebral fighter who thrives on exploiting his opponent's weaknesses. That same level of strategic savvy has never been a part of Guida's game, but he will need some of it to come away from this fight with something more than a bloody nose and frustration to spare.
The X factor: Guida can definitely outwrestle Florian, but that fact will matter little if he can't get past his guard. Florian surely will try to emulate the machete elbows Sanchez used to stifle Guida from inside the guard. But if Guida can focus on securing at least half-guard while executing his takedowns, he will put himself in far better position to deliver his chain-gun ground-and-pound. Whether or not Guida shows the maturity to stick to whatever game plan he settles upon will go a long way toward deciding where he stands in the division.
The bottom line: A competitive fight just barely swings in Florian's favor, as his slick striking and airtight guard prove enough to sway the judges for a split-decision win. Worry not about Guida, however. It seems only a matter of time before that luxurious head of hair lands him an endorsement deal with Pantene
B.J. Penn versus Diego Sanchez
http://sports.espn.go.com/extra/mma/news...id=4728969
The breakdown: After nearly three years of struggling and ultimately failing to earn a title bout in the UFC welterweight division, Sanchez made the overdue move down to lightweight and now finds himself lined up for a shot at the strap. The downside? The gold rests around the waist of Penn, who has not lost at 155 pounds in almost eight years.
Sanchez would like to work his rabid top game against Penn, but that seems unlikely at best considering that the Hawaiian's impregnable takedown defense and his almost gyroscopic balance make it virtually impossible to catch him off guard. Kenny Florian wasted a lot of time and effort trying to haul down Penn in their bout at UFC 101, and Sanchez would do well to learn the obvious lessons from that fight. Sanchez can use his vastly improved footwork to move in and out against Penn, who prefers a more methodical pace. The tools are there, as Sanchez uses the lead knee and left uppercut quite well from the southpaw stance, and his sneaky left high kick has become a proven brain scrambler. Those are all strikes Sanchez can use effectively against Penn, who relies almost entirely on his hands.
That doesn't mean Penn will find himself overmatched on the feet, though, as Sanchez often leaves his left hand low (especially when he throws a jab or leg kick) and Penn's counter right hand seems custom-made to exploit that fundamental flaw. Both Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida caught Sanchez repeatedly with the right hand in their fights, something Sanchez can't afford against Penn.
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Don't miss a moment of the latest MMA coverage from around the world. Follow us on Twitter and stay informed. Join »
Penn's jab, which has become the backbone of his boxing, represents the other obstacle to Sanchez controlling distance. Sean Sherk tried to move in and out against Penn in their fight at UFC 84 and ate three rounds' worth of jabs for his trouble. Unless Sanchez can find the flaws in Penn that so many have failed to uncover, the same fate awaits him.
The X factor: Sanchez may not be able to take down Penn, but the opposite certainly doesn't hold true. Even if Sanchez can find some success striking with Penn, the gears inevitably will switch and put him on his back at some point against arguably the best grappler in the game. Although hardly a pushover on the mat, Sanchez gears his jiu-jitsu toward holding the top position; when he has had to use his guard, results have been mixed.
The bottom line: Sanchez will try to overwhelm Penn with volume, but he will quickly discover the champion's iron chin and leather skin can easily absorb anything thrown their way. Once Penn finds the range on his jab and the timing on his counter right, feel free to sound your final call; it will be only a matter of time before Sanchez makes a fight-ending mistake. Watch for Penn to drop him late in the third round and notch a ground-and-pound technical knockout, continuing a reign of terror that has no end in sight.
Sherdog.com
Former UFC heavyweight champ Frank Mir's jiu-jitsu will create all kinds of issues for Cheick Kongo.
Frank Mir versus Cheick Kongo
The breakdown: In a key heavyweight bout matching two fighters coming off demoralizing losses, Mir and Kongo could not be more different inside the cage -- though they do share a desperate need for a win. With Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin and Junior dos Santos all sniffing at title shots, the top of the division has grown more crowded than a Wu-Tang Clan family reunion; a defeat for either fighter could result in the road back to the top closing permanently.
The obvious disparities in skill lie on the feet and the mat, as Kongo has proved himself one of the premier strikers in the division and Mir's jiu-jitsu has claimed a number of submission victims. Even more important, however, are Kongo's lacking takedown defense and bizarre habit of working with his back against the cage -- an ongoing tactical error that cuts off the Frenchman's escape routes, allowing his opponents to collapse the pocket and immediately trap him. Mir doesn't have the striking to survive many exchanges with Kongo, but he does have a slick lead uppercut-left hook combination that allows him to close distance and set up the outside leg sweep he favors. That move should be especially effective against Kongo, who stands far too upright and lacks the balance to keep his spindly legs from being a prime target for any takedown-minded foe.
Once on the mat, Kongo often fails to recover guard; his main strategy seems to revolve around surrendering his back in a gambit that rarely pays off. Kongo won't need more than a handful of strikes to turn the former heavyweight champion's face into Silly Putty, but his strategic gaffes are far too glaring for a fighter of Mir's intelligence to overlook.
The X factor: How Mir goes about getting inside will be critical. Kongo has shown a knack for posting against the cage and using underhooks to fend off takedowns, but he struggles when opponents get deep on him with trips or suck his base out with single- or double-leg takedowns. How Mir sets up the takedown will prove just as important, as rushing Kongo with anything wide or sloppy will leave him open to the titanic Frenchman's crushing jab-right cross combination.
The bottom line: Formulating a proper game plan has become increasingly fundamental as the sport has grown, and Kongo's struggles have a lot to do with his relying on landing strikes before getting taken down. Mir, meanwhile, has developed into a cerebral fighter who homes in on his opponent's weaknesses and has an actual plan to expose them. The tap-or-snap special awaits Kongo: Expect Mir to trap him against the cage, land a trip and quickly latch hold of whatever limb his foe leaves exposed.
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Saturday's bout could be Kenny Florian's last chance to prove he's worthy of another title shot.
Kenny Florian versus Clay Guida
The breakdown: The early front-runner for "Fight of the Night" features Florian matching wits and fists with Guida in a bout that neither man can afford to lose if he has any serious plans about staying in the title picture.
Guida's failings in his memorable fight with Diego Sanchez in "The Ultimate Fighter" Season 9 finale were his willingness to brawl with a superior striker and his inability to move past Sanchez's guard or work ground-and-pound from inside it. Guida must avoid such strategic errors against Florian, who will be difficult to take down because of his excellent lateral movement and ability to control range with accurate strikes. Cutting off angles and quickly closing the pocket will be vital for Guida, as Florian has shown himself to be a cerebral fighter who thrives on exploiting his opponent's weaknesses. That same level of strategic savvy has never been a part of Guida's game, but he will need some of it to come away from this fight with something more than a bloody nose and frustration to spare.
The X factor: Guida can definitely outwrestle Florian, but that fact will matter little if he can't get past his guard. Florian surely will try to emulate the machete elbows Sanchez used to stifle Guida from inside the guard. But if Guida can focus on securing at least half-guard while executing his takedowns, he will put himself in far better position to deliver his chain-gun ground-and-pound. Whether or not Guida shows the maturity to stick to whatever game plan he settles upon will go a long way toward deciding where he stands in the division.
The bottom line: A competitive fight just barely swings in Florian's favor, as his slick striking and airtight guard prove enough to sway the judges for a split-decision win. Worry not about Guida, however. It seems only a matter of time before that luxurious head of hair lands him an endorsement deal with Pantene
12-10-2009, 03:34 PM
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez Unless he gets caught in a submission, I think its time for B J to give up the belt here. Sanchez by dec.
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo To much ground for Kongo who struggles very bad there. His stand up seems to be right on target after Nog also. Mir by submission.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce. Fitch is a beast. TKO
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida. I love Guida, his fights are the best. No doubt he takes Ken Flo to the mat often, but his elbows and submissions may be to much for the carpenter. Although he may not finish him so I say Florian by dec.
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve Buentello hasn't fought since UFC 54, and even then i was never impressed. Hes an all for nothing type fighter if i remember correctly. Struves only loss in the UFC is to Jr dos santos, nothing to hang your head over. He also has some submissions under his belt, and Buentello doesnt like the ground, So i say Struve by submission.
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo To much ground for Kongo who struggles very bad there. His stand up seems to be right on target after Nog also. Mir by submission.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce. Fitch is a beast. TKO
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida. I love Guida, his fights are the best. No doubt he takes Ken Flo to the mat often, but his elbows and submissions may be to much for the carpenter. Although he may not finish him so I say Florian by dec.
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve Buentello hasn't fought since UFC 54, and even then i was never impressed. Hes an all for nothing type fighter if i remember correctly. Struves only loss in the UFC is to Jr dos santos, nothing to hang your head over. He also has some submissions under his belt, and Buentello doesnt like the ground, So i say Struve by submission.
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