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12-23-2024, 09:09 PM
Thought it'd be fun to do our own Bracketology with the top 16 or so teams. This will probably turn into a "top 16 seeds" and wherever we see Kentucky ending up. Here's my thoughts on where things would be if the season ended today-- these rankings are going to be heavily influenced by a few things, namely: how good I think the teams actually are, the historical favoritism shown toward some schools (*cough* Duke), and an assumption of how a team finished in their conference. You'll see that I bumped up some teams like Houston or North Carolina on the assumption that they'll pick it up and knocked out (Purdue) or bumped down (Florida, Texas A&M) others who might not.
Regional Sites:
East - Newark, NJ
South - Atlanta, GA
Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
West - San Francisco, CA
#1 Seeds:
1. Auburn/SEC Champ (South)
2. Duke/ACC Champ (East)
3. Iowa St./Big XII Champ (Midwest)
4. Oregon/Big Ten Champ (West)
#2 Seeds:
5. Tennessee/SEC #2 (West)
6. UConn/Big East Champ (East)
7. Marquette/Big East Runner-Up (Midwest)
8. Houston/Big XII Runner-Up (South)
#3 Seeds:
9. Alabama/SEC #3 (Midwest)
10. Kansas/Big XII #3 (South)
11. Michigan State/Big Ten #2 (East)
12. Gonzaga/Top "Small Conference" (West)
#4 Seeds:
13. Kentucky/SEC #4 (East)
14. San Diego St./MWC #1 (South)
15. Mississippi State/SEC #5 (West)
16. UCLA/Big Ten #3 (Midwest)
***If anyone slips in to the above, then the ACC's #2 is a strong possibility. Hard to include five SEC and three Big Ten and Big XII teams without also including at least a 2nd from the ACC, but right now, SMU and Clemson don't really fit the bill. North Carolina currently has five losses, but they were to really, really good teams and they probably end up being the ACC's 2nd highest seed. Same logic goes for the Big East #3, don't know that St. John's has quite enough to get there (they've lost to Baylor and Georgia, and their 2 point win over Providence doesn't look good); Georgetown hasn't played anyone.
If I had to include a #5 line and #6 line, I'd have:
#5 Seeds:
17. Baylor/Big XII #4 (West)
18. North Carolina/ACC #2 (Midwest)
19. St. John's/Big East #3 (East)
20. Dayton/A-10 #1 (South)
#6 Seeds:
21. Illinois/Big Ten #4 (South)
22. Florida/SEC #6 (West)
23. Drake/MVC #1 (East)
24. Michigan/Big Ten #5 (Midwest)
Considered Utah State for one of the final #6 seeds and think that the MVC Champion will be in the mix for anywhere from a 4-9 seed, depending on how dominant someone looks and whether or not they win both the regular season and conference championship. I assumed that they'd be runner-up to San Diego State and can't see the MVC getting two top 6 seeds.
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Creighton, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Memphis are some more non-SEC teams that will probably be in the discussion at various points.
There's a lot of Big XII flavor, but their low-upper to mid-tier teams will have some nice opportunities to knock off some "good, but not quite championship level" teams and get resume building wins. The conference also would have looked much better on the whole if Arizona hadn't melted down against quality non-conference competition; if they get get hot in conference, it could hurt everyone's metrics and overall profile. West Virginia is a team that could really help itself out-- they already have wins over Gonzaga and Georgetown and get Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati and Arizona State at home. They have losses to Pitt (in a rivalry game) and Louisville (when Pryor was healthy) that won't grade well by metrics alone, but I could see the committee factoring that in if they finish well.
Regional Finals (if chalk):
East (Newark) -
1. Duke vs. 4. Kentucky (or 5. St. John's)
2. UConn vs. 3. Michigan State (or 6. Drake)
South (Atlanta) -
1. Auburn vs. 4. San Diego St. (or 5. Dayton)
2. Houston vs. 3. Kansas (or 6. Illinois)
Midwest (Indianapolis) -
1. Iowa St. vs. 4. UCLA (or 5. North Carolina)
2. Marquette vs. 3. Alabama (or 6. Michigan)
West (San Francisco) -
1. Oregon vs. 4. Mississippi State (or 5. Baylor)
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Gonzaga (or 6. Florida)
Above brackets would have some nice match-ups for the networks and fans-- and let's be real, the committee is going to look out for their brand and the networks first and fans after.
East is loaded with tradition and you've got the Kentucky/Duke/UConn storylines built in, and a Kentucky/St. John's match-up could make for one of the most compelling Sweet 16 games in recent memory.
South gives the easiest road to #1 overall Auburn, but you still have some name brands in Houston and Kansas. Having two Big XII teams that will play each other at least twice as the #2 and #3 seeds in the same region (to potentially meet in the Sweet 16) is unlikely to happen, but it makes more sense than almost anything else you'd come up with.
West is usually going to be your weaker bracket and if the SEC has two #1s or #2s, you can bet that at least one of them will be there and at least one, but probably two, of your West Coast teams like Oregon and Gonzaga are playing close to home.
Midwest might not have a blue blood contender or be filled with teams who score tons, but it's good top to bottom and other than UCLA at #4 or possibly Marquette at #2, I don't know that any of their other teams are near the "worst of" their seed line.
Regional Sites:
East - Newark, NJ
South - Atlanta, GA
Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
West - San Francisco, CA
#1 Seeds:
1. Auburn/SEC Champ (South)
2. Duke/ACC Champ (East)
3. Iowa St./Big XII Champ (Midwest)
4. Oregon/Big Ten Champ (West)
#2 Seeds:
5. Tennessee/SEC #2 (West)
6. UConn/Big East Champ (East)
7. Marquette/Big East Runner-Up (Midwest)
8. Houston/Big XII Runner-Up (South)
#3 Seeds:
9. Alabama/SEC #3 (Midwest)
10. Kansas/Big XII #3 (South)
11. Michigan State/Big Ten #2 (East)
12. Gonzaga/Top "Small Conference" (West)
#4 Seeds:
13. Kentucky/SEC #4 (East)
14. San Diego St./MWC #1 (South)
15. Mississippi State/SEC #5 (West)
16. UCLA/Big Ten #3 (Midwest)
***If anyone slips in to the above, then the ACC's #2 is a strong possibility. Hard to include five SEC and three Big Ten and Big XII teams without also including at least a 2nd from the ACC, but right now, SMU and Clemson don't really fit the bill. North Carolina currently has five losses, but they were to really, really good teams and they probably end up being the ACC's 2nd highest seed. Same logic goes for the Big East #3, don't know that St. John's has quite enough to get there (they've lost to Baylor and Georgia, and their 2 point win over Providence doesn't look good); Georgetown hasn't played anyone.
If I had to include a #5 line and #6 line, I'd have:
#5 Seeds:
17. Baylor/Big XII #4 (West)
18. North Carolina/ACC #2 (Midwest)
19. St. John's/Big East #3 (East)
20. Dayton/A-10 #1 (South)
#6 Seeds:
21. Illinois/Big Ten #4 (South)
22. Florida/SEC #6 (West)
23. Drake/MVC #1 (East)
24. Michigan/Big Ten #5 (Midwest)
Considered Utah State for one of the final #6 seeds and think that the MVC Champion will be in the mix for anywhere from a 4-9 seed, depending on how dominant someone looks and whether or not they win both the regular season and conference championship. I assumed that they'd be runner-up to San Diego State and can't see the MVC getting two top 6 seeds.
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Creighton, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Memphis are some more non-SEC teams that will probably be in the discussion at various points.
There's a lot of Big XII flavor, but their low-upper to mid-tier teams will have some nice opportunities to knock off some "good, but not quite championship level" teams and get resume building wins. The conference also would have looked much better on the whole if Arizona hadn't melted down against quality non-conference competition; if they get get hot in conference, it could hurt everyone's metrics and overall profile. West Virginia is a team that could really help itself out-- they already have wins over Gonzaga and Georgetown and get Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati and Arizona State at home. They have losses to Pitt (in a rivalry game) and Louisville (when Pryor was healthy) that won't grade well by metrics alone, but I could see the committee factoring that in if they finish well.
Regional Finals (if chalk):
East (Newark) -
1. Duke vs. 4. Kentucky (or 5. St. John's)
2. UConn vs. 3. Michigan State (or 6. Drake)
South (Atlanta) -
1. Auburn vs. 4. San Diego St. (or 5. Dayton)
2. Houston vs. 3. Kansas (or 6. Illinois)
Midwest (Indianapolis) -
1. Iowa St. vs. 4. UCLA (or 5. North Carolina)
2. Marquette vs. 3. Alabama (or 6. Michigan)
West (San Francisco) -
1. Oregon vs. 4. Mississippi State (or 5. Baylor)
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Gonzaga (or 6. Florida)
Above brackets would have some nice match-ups for the networks and fans-- and let's be real, the committee is going to look out for their brand and the networks first and fans after.
East is loaded with tradition and you've got the Kentucky/Duke/UConn storylines built in, and a Kentucky/St. John's match-up could make for one of the most compelling Sweet 16 games in recent memory.
South gives the easiest road to #1 overall Auburn, but you still have some name brands in Houston and Kansas. Having two Big XII teams that will play each other at least twice as the #2 and #3 seeds in the same region (to potentially meet in the Sweet 16) is unlikely to happen, but it makes more sense than almost anything else you'd come up with.
West is usually going to be your weaker bracket and if the SEC has two #1s or #2s, you can bet that at least one of them will be there and at least one, but probably two, of your West Coast teams like Oregon and Gonzaga are playing close to home.
Midwest might not have a blue blood contender or be filled with teams who score tons, but it's good top to bottom and other than UCLA at #4 or possibly Marquette at #2, I don't know that any of their other teams are near the "worst of" their seed line.
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12-31-2024, 03:14 AM
Rating the conferences from top to bottom as of today (early AM on New Year's Eve, when most teams have only 1 non-conference game remaining):
1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big Ten
4. Big East
5. ACC
SEC has the best team (Auburn), two more teams that are legit top 10 (Alabama and Tennessee), and a handful of others who are legit top 20-25 (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida). If everyone stays healthy, I think you probably see Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Ole Miss in the Top 25 or just outside and "receiving votes" for most of the season. Georgia and Texas are good enough to crack the top 25. I've been talking about how underrated Georgia seems, but they also have a really brutal schedule-- they play seven straight games against ranked teams to open conference play and then five of their next eight games are against ranked teams. Given that, most probably aren't going to hear about how good they could be unless they pull off a couple of upsets. Overall, I think the SEC gets ten (10) bids to the Big Dance, depending mostly on bid thieves. 12 bids just seems too ambitious, though anywhere from 9 to 11 wouldn't shock me.
Big XII has Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, and a bunch of really solid teams. Think that getting a #1 seed, one of the middle #2 seeds, and one of the high #3 seeds is certainly possible. Right now, the metrics love the conference, with them having 3 of KenPom's Top 9 (the SEC has 4). Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all top 25-type, tournament teams. That's six (6) bids and they'll probably get one or two more out of Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, etc. as well. I have them ahead of the Big Ten because their top three or so teams outweigh the overall depth in the middle of the B10's giant pack.
Big Ten doesn't have a premier team. They're deep, but I wouldn't even feel confident saying "I don't know who it will be, but one Big Ten team makes the Final Four". Oregon is good and historically have some great seasons where they peak late and upset their way through the West Region. Because of the travel logistics involved with them and UCLA having to visit places like Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc., I don't know that they'll be able to avoid an extra loss that could end up knee-capping them when it comes to seeding. Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State are all tournament quality teams. The computers (KenPom, etc.) actually have the Wolverines above everyone right now. That's seven (7) bids so far. Maryland and Wisconsin would be in if the season ended today. Nebraska, and probably Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana are all tournament or bubble teams. 10 bids isn't out of the question, but I don't think 7 is either, especially when top teams start losing to lower teams during cross-country trips.
Big East is pretty top-heavy. Marquette is a legit top 10 team. UConn is a top five team in games where Hurley hasn't pushed the refs too far. I see the league getting at least one of the #2 seeds and one of the #3 seeds. St. John's has a nice resume and probably has already done enough to ensure that they don't get left out two years in a row so long as they don't completely implode the rest of the way; the way that Georgia and Baylor finish will mean a lot to them. Creighton should also get in. That's four (4) bids so far, with five (5) total being their floor. Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Xavier, DePaul, and Butler are bubble type teams who could play their way in. Butler had a huge stretch of games with four fairly close losses to Houston, Wisconsin, Marquette, and UConn in a five-game stretch; I'm guessing that this keeps them out, but it goes to show that they can play with anyone.
ACC has Duke as one of the top teams. I'm not entirely sold on a Duke team that doesn't have a healthy Maluach, but they've got a very manageable conference schedule and a non-conference win over Auburn that will protect their seeding (as if the committee doesn't do that anyway). The importance of their wins over Arizona and Louisville are fading fast. Their two losses are to Kentucky and Kansas by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral floor, so those won't hurt them. Clemson is a tournament team. Past that, things get interesting. I think North Carolina plays themselves in, but they don't have much margin of error unless they want to count on playing well in the ACC Tournament. At least one, but probably two of the bubble-type teams like SMU, PIttsburgh, Florida State, Wake Forest, or Louisville making it in, as I can't see a major conference getting less than four (4) or five (5) bids.
Past the above, the following leagues have a chance at multiple bids:
Mountain West (2-3 bids): San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and/or Conference Champ
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Murray St., and/or Conference Champ
If the West Coast Conference wants multiple bids, then Saint Mary's probably needs to win their conference tournament or at least beat a ranked Gonzaga in the regular season and have a strong showing otherwise.
1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big Ten
4. Big East
5. ACC
SEC has the best team (Auburn), two more teams that are legit top 10 (Alabama and Tennessee), and a handful of others who are legit top 20-25 (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida). If everyone stays healthy, I think you probably see Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Ole Miss in the Top 25 or just outside and "receiving votes" for most of the season. Georgia and Texas are good enough to crack the top 25. I've been talking about how underrated Georgia seems, but they also have a really brutal schedule-- they play seven straight games against ranked teams to open conference play and then five of their next eight games are against ranked teams. Given that, most probably aren't going to hear about how good they could be unless they pull off a couple of upsets. Overall, I think the SEC gets ten (10) bids to the Big Dance, depending mostly on bid thieves. 12 bids just seems too ambitious, though anywhere from 9 to 11 wouldn't shock me.
Big XII has Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, and a bunch of really solid teams. Think that getting a #1 seed, one of the middle #2 seeds, and one of the high #3 seeds is certainly possible. Right now, the metrics love the conference, with them having 3 of KenPom's Top 9 (the SEC has 4). Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all top 25-type, tournament teams. That's six (6) bids and they'll probably get one or two more out of Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, etc. as well. I have them ahead of the Big Ten because their top three or so teams outweigh the overall depth in the middle of the B10's giant pack.
Big Ten doesn't have a premier team. They're deep, but I wouldn't even feel confident saying "I don't know who it will be, but one Big Ten team makes the Final Four". Oregon is good and historically have some great seasons where they peak late and upset their way through the West Region. Because of the travel logistics involved with them and UCLA having to visit places like Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc., I don't know that they'll be able to avoid an extra loss that could end up knee-capping them when it comes to seeding. Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State are all tournament quality teams. The computers (KenPom, etc.) actually have the Wolverines above everyone right now. That's seven (7) bids so far. Maryland and Wisconsin would be in if the season ended today. Nebraska, and probably Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana are all tournament or bubble teams. 10 bids isn't out of the question, but I don't think 7 is either, especially when top teams start losing to lower teams during cross-country trips.
Big East is pretty top-heavy. Marquette is a legit top 10 team. UConn is a top five team in games where Hurley hasn't pushed the refs too far. I see the league getting at least one of the #2 seeds and one of the #3 seeds. St. John's has a nice resume and probably has already done enough to ensure that they don't get left out two years in a row so long as they don't completely implode the rest of the way; the way that Georgia and Baylor finish will mean a lot to them. Creighton should also get in. That's four (4) bids so far, with five (5) total being their floor. Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Xavier, DePaul, and Butler are bubble type teams who could play their way in. Butler had a huge stretch of games with four fairly close losses to Houston, Wisconsin, Marquette, and UConn in a five-game stretch; I'm guessing that this keeps them out, but it goes to show that they can play with anyone.
ACC has Duke as one of the top teams. I'm not entirely sold on a Duke team that doesn't have a healthy Maluach, but they've got a very manageable conference schedule and a non-conference win over Auburn that will protect their seeding (as if the committee doesn't do that anyway). The importance of their wins over Arizona and Louisville are fading fast. Their two losses are to Kentucky and Kansas by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral floor, so those won't hurt them. Clemson is a tournament team. Past that, things get interesting. I think North Carolina plays themselves in, but they don't have much margin of error unless they want to count on playing well in the ACC Tournament. At least one, but probably two of the bubble-type teams like SMU, PIttsburgh, Florida State, Wake Forest, or Louisville making it in, as I can't see a major conference getting less than four (4) or five (5) bids.
Past the above, the following leagues have a chance at multiple bids:
Mountain West (2-3 bids): San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and/or Conference Champ
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Murray St., and/or Conference Champ
If the West Coast Conference wants multiple bids, then Saint Mary's probably needs to win their conference tournament or at least beat a ranked Gonzaga in the regular season and have a strong showing otherwise.
3 hours ago
Updated as of the conclusion of games on 1/14:
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Iowa St. (Big XII #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
2's:
Marquette (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
Kansas (Big XII #2)
SEC #3 (Alabama/Tennessee)
3's:
Houston (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #2)
Kentucky (SEC #4)
Illinois (Big Ten #2)
4's:
Florida (SEC #5)
Oregon (Big Ten #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #1)
Memphis (American #1)
If the same team wins the Big Ten regular season and conference championships, I don't see them not getting a #1 or the highest #2 seed. Michigan State and Michigan look like the the top options there, even if their resume leaves plenty to be desired. Splitting the regular season and conference crown but performing really well in the other is going to be enough for a #2 at least.
Big XII race is shaping up nicely. Barring injury, I'd think Iowa State, Kansas, and Houston are all going to be on the #1-3 seed line at minimum. Houston is still a team that I expect to rise throughout the season. They only lost to Auburn by 5 in one of the Tigers' stiffest tests.
UConn looked like they'd rebounded until they took another loss this week. Marquette was taken to OT by a DePaul team that's 0-7 in conference play. St. John's will be in the tournament, but they'll need a win over one of those two (they play twice each) to have a shot at the 4-5 seed line.
Memphis may seem like an outlier. They've lost to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas State. They also have wins over UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Clemson, Missouri, and UNLV. Given where the Mississippi schools and Michigan State stand at the moment, they'd probably be the last #4 or highest #5 if the season ended today.
SEC teams are going to keep beating up on each other. That's a recipe to get lots of team in and seeded well overall, but losses like the one Florida took tonight (to Missouri in Gainesville) are going to really hurt any individual team's overall metrics when evaluating seed lines and geographic preference. Road losses or losses to higher ranked teams won't hurt as bad, but losing as a home favorite will really hurt.
Right now, I'd think that the SEC could get 11-12 teams , with the total mostly being dependent on how many teams steal bids and whether a fringe team like an Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Texas has a huge upset and plays well in the conference tournament.
Auburn is a lock. Even if they lose out, you can't tell me that a team with wins over Iowa State, Houston, Purdue, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Memphis, and North Carolina doesn't get a bid. The biggest question right now is how long they'll be without Broome and what they'd have to do to lose their grip on the #1 overall seed in the field.
Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky might as well be locks. Biggest question for each of those teams is how they separate themselves from the others and what seed lines and geographic sites they'll land.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are just outside of the above group, but will probably be there with a couple more wins. It's not time to start booking rooms, but considering their resumes and remaining schedules, the wheels would have to fall off.
That's 8 bids for 16 of the teams.
I think Georgia gets in. I've liked them as a plucky underdog but think they'll stumble plenty down the stretch, especially over the next few games, because they aren't the 23rd best team in the nation and are just going to get exposed, especially with Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Florida in their next four. At the same time, they have a lottery pick who is the unquestioned leader of the team and guy you run everything through. They're pretty well coached and already have a win over Kentucky, St. John's, and Oklahoma. Win most of the ones that they should and pull a mild upset or two to make up for the losses (even if it's over a Texas A&M, Mississippi State, or Missouri) and they'll be in.
Missouri has really helped their cause with a road win over Florida. They've also beaten Kansas and their losses are to quality teams (Memphis, Illinois, and Auburn). No debate as to whether they're even a bubble team today.
That's 10 bids for 16 teams. Here's where things get dicey.
Oklahoma should start worrying. While it's not time to panic quite yet, they are 0-3 in conference play and their biggest wins are Michigan and Arizona. Michigan was beaten by Arkansas and Wake Forest. Yikes. Double yikes when you consider that their hosting Kentucky (who'll be coming off a trip to Tuscaloosa) for a late mid-week tip might be a win they'll need to solidify a bid. Let's see how their three game stretch with Texas, South Carolina, and Arkansas goes.
If the season ended today, I'd say Oklahoma gets the 11th bid and the rest are in the NIT or watching from home.
Arkansas is firmly a bubble team at best. They've lost four straight in conference play, with the latest coming to LSU. Michigan is their marquee win, and there isn't anything past that. They've really dug themselves into a hole and need to do at least two of the following three if they want a bid-- a.) get two to three more true quality wins; b.) count on Michigan closing strong; and/or c.) play well in the conference tournament. They have more than enough talent to control their own fate, but we're familiar with Calipari and if they only get one of those, they'll be sweating coming Selection Sunday (unless the two to three quality wins are over Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and/or Kentucky).
Texas is in Oklahoma and Arkansas' shoes, but without big wins. Their biggest win is Syracuse or NC State. That isn't a tournament team's resume. The best thing that they have going for them is that Auburn, Tennessee, and a trip to College Station are in their rear-view mirror. They have Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in their next five. They need to win at least two of those, then take care of business (read: get at least two wins) against LSU, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt if they want to stay in the discussion. Past that, they'd need to to count on pulling off both a major and a couple of mild upsets.
LSU has an SEC win, but it's over Arkansas. South Carolina and Vanderbilt don't have tournament resumes either. I won't go into the work any of those have to do until they do some of it first.
1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Iowa St. (Big XII #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
2's:
Marquette (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
Kansas (Big XII #2)
SEC #3 (Alabama/Tennessee)
3's:
Houston (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #2)
Kentucky (SEC #4)
Illinois (Big Ten #2)
4's:
Florida (SEC #5)
Oregon (Big Ten #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #1)
Memphis (American #1)
If the same team wins the Big Ten regular season and conference championships, I don't see them not getting a #1 or the highest #2 seed. Michigan State and Michigan look like the the top options there, even if their resume leaves plenty to be desired. Splitting the regular season and conference crown but performing really well in the other is going to be enough for a #2 at least.
Big XII race is shaping up nicely. Barring injury, I'd think Iowa State, Kansas, and Houston are all going to be on the #1-3 seed line at minimum. Houston is still a team that I expect to rise throughout the season. They only lost to Auburn by 5 in one of the Tigers' stiffest tests.
UConn looked like they'd rebounded until they took another loss this week. Marquette was taken to OT by a DePaul team that's 0-7 in conference play. St. John's will be in the tournament, but they'll need a win over one of those two (they play twice each) to have a shot at the 4-5 seed line.
Memphis may seem like an outlier. They've lost to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas State. They also have wins over UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Clemson, Missouri, and UNLV. Given where the Mississippi schools and Michigan State stand at the moment, they'd probably be the last #4 or highest #5 if the season ended today.
SEC teams are going to keep beating up on each other. That's a recipe to get lots of team in and seeded well overall, but losses like the one Florida took tonight (to Missouri in Gainesville) are going to really hurt any individual team's overall metrics when evaluating seed lines and geographic preference. Road losses or losses to higher ranked teams won't hurt as bad, but losing as a home favorite will really hurt.
Right now, I'd think that the SEC could get 11-12 teams , with the total mostly being dependent on how many teams steal bids and whether a fringe team like an Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Texas has a huge upset and plays well in the conference tournament.
Auburn is a lock. Even if they lose out, you can't tell me that a team with wins over Iowa State, Houston, Purdue, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Memphis, and North Carolina doesn't get a bid. The biggest question right now is how long they'll be without Broome and what they'd have to do to lose their grip on the #1 overall seed in the field.
Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky might as well be locks. Biggest question for each of those teams is how they separate themselves from the others and what seed lines and geographic sites they'll land.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are just outside of the above group, but will probably be there with a couple more wins. It's not time to start booking rooms, but considering their resumes and remaining schedules, the wheels would have to fall off.
That's 8 bids for 16 of the teams.
I think Georgia gets in. I've liked them as a plucky underdog but think they'll stumble plenty down the stretch, especially over the next few games, because they aren't the 23rd best team in the nation and are just going to get exposed, especially with Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Florida in their next four. At the same time, they have a lottery pick who is the unquestioned leader of the team and guy you run everything through. They're pretty well coached and already have a win over Kentucky, St. John's, and Oklahoma. Win most of the ones that they should and pull a mild upset or two to make up for the losses (even if it's over a Texas A&M, Mississippi State, or Missouri) and they'll be in.
Missouri has really helped their cause with a road win over Florida. They've also beaten Kansas and their losses are to quality teams (Memphis, Illinois, and Auburn). No debate as to whether they're even a bubble team today.
That's 10 bids for 16 teams. Here's where things get dicey.
Oklahoma should start worrying. While it's not time to panic quite yet, they are 0-3 in conference play and their biggest wins are Michigan and Arizona. Michigan was beaten by Arkansas and Wake Forest. Yikes. Double yikes when you consider that their hosting Kentucky (who'll be coming off a trip to Tuscaloosa) for a late mid-week tip might be a win they'll need to solidify a bid. Let's see how their three game stretch with Texas, South Carolina, and Arkansas goes.
If the season ended today, I'd say Oklahoma gets the 11th bid and the rest are in the NIT or watching from home.
Arkansas is firmly a bubble team at best. They've lost four straight in conference play, with the latest coming to LSU. Michigan is their marquee win, and there isn't anything past that. They've really dug themselves into a hole and need to do at least two of the following three if they want a bid-- a.) get two to three more true quality wins; b.) count on Michigan closing strong; and/or c.) play well in the conference tournament. They have more than enough talent to control their own fate, but we're familiar with Calipari and if they only get one of those, they'll be sweating coming Selection Sunday (unless the two to three quality wins are over Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and/or Kentucky).
Texas is in Oklahoma and Arkansas' shoes, but without big wins. Their biggest win is Syracuse or NC State. That isn't a tournament team's resume. The best thing that they have going for them is that Auburn, Tennessee, and a trip to College Station are in their rear-view mirror. They have Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in their next five. They need to win at least two of those, then take care of business (read: get at least two wins) against LSU, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt if they want to stay in the discussion. Past that, they'd need to to count on pulling off both a major and a couple of mild upsets.
LSU has an SEC win, but it's over Arkansas. South Carolina and Vanderbilt don't have tournament resumes either. I won't go into the work any of those have to do until they do some of it first.
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