[EKUAlum05]

Calpreps' CPU system started rating KY schools in 2003 and now that we have completed the decade I thought it might be interesting to see what the stats said.

I only took teams from Regions 13, 14, 15, and 16 (with the exception of Rockcastle County)... sorry Somerset area.

The numbers are pretty interesting. I figured we can have some fun with it.

This is a 17-year window, how would you predict the Top 10 programs based off ranking of EKY schools to finish?

To make it easier... I will go ahead and fill in your Top 3 for you with the three programs we all expected to be at the top

1. Belfry
Average EKY Finish: 3.35
Average State Finish: 24.65
Average Rating: 31.85

2. Johnson Central
Average EKY Finish: 4.47
Average State Finish: 32.18
Average Rating: 29.19

3. Bell County
Average EKY Finish: 6.18
Average State Finish: 40.35
Average Rating: 24.52


So how would Teams 4-10 pan out?

[Panther Thunder]

I did do the projections for 2019 Pikeville vs. all other Class A State Champions. Panthers won them all.

Also KHSAA needs to use Calpreps for seeding.

[Real Badman]

I would imagine:

Breathitt County
Russell
Hazard
Williamsburg
Ashland
Prestonsburg
Corbin

Pikeville

I didn't put these in any specific order

[EKUAlum05]

4. Ashland
Average EKY Finish: 6.24
Average State Finish: 44.75
Average Rating: 21.44

5. Corbin
Average EKY Finish: 7.24
Average State Finish: 51.53
Average Rating: 19.79

6. Harlan County * (Only measured from 2008 to Present)
Average EKY Finish: 10.08
Average State Finish: 62.33
Average Rating: 15.10

7. Russell
Average EKY Finish: 11.71
Average State Finish: 70.88
Average Rating: 13.39

8. Rockcastle County
Average EKY Finish: 12.65
Average State Finish: 74.82
Average Rating: 11.59

9. Pikeville
Average EKY Finish: 14.00
Average State Finish: 83.42
Average Rating: 10.4

10. Hazard
Average EKY Finish: 14.59
Average State Finish: 83.82
Average Rating: 9.12

[EKUAlum05]

Others:
11. Knox Central
Average EKY Finish: 15.00
Average State Finish: 82.88
Average Rating: 9.15

12. Raceland
Average EKY Finish: 15.53
Average State Finish: 88.00
Average Rating: 8.13

13. Whitley County Fightin' pjdougs!
Average EKY Finish: 15.82
Average State Finish: 90.65
Average Rating: 7.10

14. Breathitt County
Average EKY Finish: 17.77
Average State Finish: 97.71
Average Rating: 4.24

15. North Laurel
Average EKY Finish: 18.12
Average State Finish: 102.35
Average Rating: 4.00

16. Prestonsburg
Average EKY Finish: 18.59
Average State Finish: 105.53
Average Rating: 2.11

17. Lawrence County
Average EKY Finish: 18.88
Average State Finish: 106.41
Average Rating: 2.56

18. Williamsburg
Average EKY Finish: 20.18
Average State Finish: 112.41
Average Rating: 1.36

19. Middlesboro
Average EKY Finish: 23.00
Average State Finish: 124.82
Average Rating: -3.22

20. Paintsville
Average EKY Finish: 24.47
Average State Finish: 126.41
Average Rating: -4.61

[EKUAlum05]

Ranking by Top 10 EKY Finishes:
1t. Belfry 16/17
1t. Bell County 16/17
3. Johnson Central 15/17
4. Ashland 14/17
5. Corbin 13/17
6. Harlan County 7/12
7t. Russell 8/17
7t. Rockcastle County 8/17
9t. Knox Central 7/17
9t. Raceland 7/17
9t. Brethitt County 7/17
12. Hazard 6/17
13t. Pikeville 5/17
13t. Whitley County 5/17
15t. Prestonsburg 4/17
15t. Paintsville 4/17
17t. North Laurel 3/17
17t. Lawrence County 3/17
17t. South Laurel 3/17
17t. Letcher Central 3/17
21t. Williamsburg 2/17
21t. Middlesboro 2/17
21t. Sheldon Clark 2/17
21t. Fairview 2/17
25t. East Carter 1/17
25t. Perry Central 1/17
25t. Boyd County 1/17
25t. Clay County 1/17
25t. Leslie County 1/17

[EKUAlum05]

Average Ranking by Top 5 EKY Finishes:
1. Belfry 14/17
2. Johnson Central 13/17
3. Ashland 11/17
4. Bell County 9/17
5. Harlan County 5/12
6. Corbin 6/17
7t. Russell 4/17
7t. Pikeville 4/17
9t. Rockcastle County 3/17
9t. Breathitt County 3/17
11t. Hazard 2/17
11t. Knox Central 2/17
11t. Whitley County 2/17
11t. Williamsburg 2/17
15t. Prestonsburg 1/17
15t. Lawrence County 1/17
15t. Middlesboro 1/17
15t. Paintsville 1/17
15t. South Laurel 1/17

[EKUAlum05]

Average Rating By Top 50 State Finishes:
1. Belfry 16/17
2. Johnson Central 14/17
3. Ashland 13/17
4. Bell County 12/17
5. Corbin 9/17
6. Harlan County 6/12
7. Russell 7/17
8. Rockcastle County 6/17
9t. Pikeville 5/17
9t. Knox Central 5/17
11t. Raceland 4/17
11t. Breathitt County 4/17
13t. Hazard 2/17
13t. Whitley County 2/17
13t. Prestonsburg 2/17
13t. Lawrence County 2/17
17t. North Laurel 1/17
17t. Williamsburg 1/17
17t. Middlesboro 1/17
17t. South Laurel 1/17
17t. Letcher Central 1/17
17t. Perry Central 1/17

[EKUAlum05]

Average Rating by Top 25 State Finishes:
1t. Belfry 10/17
1t. Johnson Central 10/17
3. Bell County 7/17
4. Harlan County 3/12
5. Corbin 3/17
6t. Ashland 2/17
6t. Russell 2/17
6t. Pikeville 2/17
9t. Rockcastle County 1/17
9t. Hazard 1/17
9t. Knox Central 1/17
9t. Prestonsburg 1/17
9t. Williamsburg 1/17

[EKUAlum05]

Average Rating by Top 10 State Finishes:
1t. Belfry 4/17
1t. Johnson Central 4/17
3. Bell County 3/17
4. Pikeville 1/17

[EKUAlum05]

Average Rating by Calpreps Rating > 30.0
1t. Belfry 10/17
1t. Johnson Central 10/17
3. Bell County 7/17
4. Harlan County 3/12
5. Corbin 3/17
6. Russell 2/17
7t. Ashland 1/17
7t. Rockcastle County 1/17
7t. Pikeville 1/17
7t. Hazard 1/17
7t. Knox Central 1/17
7t. Whitley County 1/17
7t. Prestonsburg 1/17

[EKUAlum05]

Average Rating by Calpreps Rating > 35.0
1. Belfry 6/17
2t. Johnson Central 4/17
2t. Bell County 4/17
4t. Russell 1/17
4t. Rockcastle County 1/17
4t. Pikeville 1/17


Average Rating by Calpreps Rating > 40.0
1. Belfry 4/17
2t. Johnson Central 2/17
2t. Bell County 2/17

[EKUAlum05]

I will break down by Small Schools only (Bottom Half of Classes) soon.

Notes so far:
1. There was a clear delineation that Belfry and JC were the class of EKY since 2003, with Bell County being step for step while Dudley Hilton was the Head Coach. Bell took a slip once he left and if not for that time they would be right with the Top 2.

2. Ashland and Corbin were the next tier and they have done it with consistency. Neither has a Title to show for, but neither have had truly down stretches. They may have had 2 or 3 weaker seasons, but neither were ever non-competitive and both handled coaching change well.

3. Harlan County only has been around for 12 years, but their success has been surprising. Harlan County also illustrates the Larkey effect. Larkey's peak was just before these numbers at Rockcastle, so what we see is the taper off from his peak in his twilight at Rockcastle and then Harlan County. From 2003-2006 Rockcastle was as good as anyone in EKY including a #1 finish in 2005. Larkey carried that momentum for four years at Harlan County but then his slide was drastic and at Perry Central it only continued.

Harlan County also illustrates the role a bumper feeder crop can play. They have rebounded to respectability thanks to a current class of players how had success at the Middle School level.

4. Russell is kind of on their own island. The Red Devils are a good example of the tapering downward and upward that comes with replacing a legend and subsequently transition an entire systematic Offensive philosophy. The Devils were outstanding in the early 2000's with four straight Semi-Finals. Then you see the tail end of McGlone's run and the start of Maynard's era as they became a much less impactful force for a six year stretch from 08-13.

Now that Maynard has settled in you have seen Russell kind of ebb and flow with Senior experience. This pattern matches Maynard's time at Raceland as well! The Devils have had some solid Top 10 teams but have yet to find the success from McGlone's peak.

5. The next tier of teams is composed of the 1A powerhouses and some larger school teams who have yet to reach greatness.

First the small schools:
Anytime you are a 1A school it is going to be a tough draw in the Calpreps system. Your SOS will always be heavily dependent on your non-district games and you can't afford to take losses to other 1A teams. Pikeville and Hazard each had some Championship runs but also had some years where those variables caused their number to be negatively effected.

Pikeville's numbers trend is also the perfect example of a program stabilizing and evolving. MacNamee took over in 2010 on the tail end of their weakest three year stretch. It took MacNamee some time to get the ship righted, as his first four years were nothing special in the date. After those four years to get his first cycle of talent up and into the High School, you then see an immediate trajectory adjustment. Pikeville then takes a slight two year lull (common of most small schools) as some veteran talent leaves and the next wave enters then you see another surge to present day.

Hazard is a different story. They emerged, peaked, then stabilized under Dixon and followed this same "ebb and flow" pattern for small schools. It is clear Dixon raised the bard where both their highest highs and lowest lows were higher than previous, but you can see Hazard even out at the twilight factored in by Pikeville's emergence. From a statistical viewpoint, Dixon's departure makes sense for both parties. Hazard now must find the right guy or expect a negative trend back to where they were Pre-Dixon.

Raceland lost Maynard and suffered a transition, but now have stabilized. What is curious about Raceland is they are extremely consistent and are not seeing as much ebb and flow in variance. This should be both a optimistic and potentially worrisome thing for Rams fans. It's clear the program has built itself to be a consistent winner, but where d you go from here? Does Raceland push forward and become an elite school or will they regress?

[EKUAlum05]

6. Knox Central and Whitley County are both examples of solid programs that are capped off in their potential. In both cases I think the fan-bases have to be proud of the level of their programs, but also wondering what changes need to occur to take the next step. Whitley looked to make a coaching change at the right time as they were taking a noticeable slide, and have since returned to a more accustomed trend. The next three-four years for Whitley will be key. If the program does not ascend there may be only one way to go.

Knox's 2019 performance is troubling after nice efforts in 2017 and 2018. With the proximity of Whitley, Knox, Williamsburg, and Corbin it iwll be interesting if they all play at a solid but not elite level, or if one school will peak and force another to decline.

North Laurel was a pleasant surprise to see in the Top 15, but the Jags are in a dangerous spot as well. 2018 and 2019 were not the way you wanted to see the numbers trend as it is now starting to revert back to the days pre-Chris Larkey and make you wonder if they have missed their window for growth?

7. Now the hard luck portion of our stats. No numbers are more schizophrenic than Breathitt County and Pburg. Breathitt has seven season where they were competitive with almost anyone in EKY, they also have 7 years where they were among the weakest. Prestonsburg is really feeling the pinch right now as the numbers at Derossett's twilight are staggering. It is also no surprise that they have trended down right as Johnson Central, Paintsville, and Pikeville has surged. Simply put, Pburg needs to keep their talent pool within to ever reach the level they once knew.

For Breathitt they were hit hard by a massive deficit of losing a legendary coach still at a high level as well as external factors that caused their talent pool to drain suddenly. With Moore now established as the HC you are seeing them bounce back as their feeder system is restored. They just had a bumper crop of talent so a slight regression may be expected or they may maintain this level.

8. At the bottom of the Top 20 are three interesting cases:
Williamsbut, much like Pikeville, is reaching the point of program maturity under a fully established Coach. Herron's peak years are now and you have seen a couple nice surges including their best crop of talent that led them to two State Finals. Williamsburg has to find a way to keep their talent pool rich with the three bigger programs around them fighting for growth. A 1A team can co-exist with a powerful bigger school, but seldom can they with two or three strong bigger schools. The best thing Williamsburg can hope for is coaching turnover or regression at two of the three schools nearby.

Middlesboro: A legend fades, they struggle to find the right guy, and now a legend enters. Expect Middlesboro to make a noticeable rise under Coach French as long as he stays, but without a great HC we saw what happens to Middlesboro with a monster like Dudley Hilton up the road.

Paintsville: Much criticism has been thrown at Paintsville's staff for some sideline antics, but one thing you must say is Chirico has some coaching and program building chops! Chirico came to Paintsville in 2013. The three years prior they were literally one of the worst teams in all of Kentucky. Just by being on the sideline they improved to an average team in 2013, then an above average team in 2014, and ever since they have been a Top 10 program in EKY.

The key for Paintsville is to do whatever it takes to not lose the arms race against rival Pikeville and in-town big school juggernaut Johnson Central who are both evolving. If Paintsville can keep up with the Jones' and continue to churn out strength at the feeder level it is clear they have a history of success ahead as long as Chirico is there.