[Demarcus ware]

An 85 year old lawyer from Texas has filed a lawsuit asking for a judgement concerning whether Cruz can run for President. Everyone knew this was coming eventually i suppose. From what i've read today, a lot of so called experts believe it will be dismissed. At least it could be decided now instead of later, save him time later down the road.

[RunItUpTheGut]

Trump, while I don't know his motives, IS correct in saying Cruz should go ahead and deal with it now. Theres no sense in waiting.

Im glad this happened. For all we know that 85 year old lawyer is doing it FOR Cruz so it can be done.

[Hoot Gibson]

Long and very repetitive (but then again, so if Trump), but anybody who still expects Donald Trump to govern as a Constitutionally bound Republican should watch this. Trump is a self promoting, entertaining clown. Nothing more. Absent any political record, it is important to consider what kind of man he was before he decided to run for president.

Trump is a self promoting, entertaining clown. Nothing more. In another time and place, Trump might have been a member of the royal court. Court jesters have always been in demand, but were never given the key to the castle.

[YOUTUBE="Trump on Trump"]OZqKLlLc0xo[/YOUTUBE]

[RunItUpTheGut]

^
Too close to the election now.

Id imagine 90% or better have there minds made up on who to vote for.

[TheRealThing]

The anti Trump forces are using subliminal messaging in an effort to give his supporters in Iowa an reasonable excuse for staying home on caucus night. If you have noticed, the suggestion has been repeated over and over again that Trump supporters may not brave the elements to vote. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say if the elements are harsh on Trump supporters, they will be harsh for the other candidate's supporters too.

I've not heard it suggested even one time that the winter conditions or the personal discipline necessary to show up at the polls to vote will effect any candidate's supporters other than Trump. I guess the thinking is that if Trump supporters are tired or otherwise tempted to stay home next Monday night, the oft repeated messaging will reinforce their desire to take a pass. :eyeroll:

I don't know which Republican will prevail. I do know that whoever lands the job will find a rough row to hoe lying ahead. Dems will be filled with indignation and very likely unwilling to cooperate in the slightest. If recent history is any indicator, their special interest caucuses would rather wreck the place than to see a Republican administration succeed. That is the sad state in which I believe we find ourselves today, and it may well take a man with 'New York values' to get much of anything done. The granny knot with which Reid and Pelosi has the Congress tied will not yield easily. The job of straightening out this land may have indeed been started, but this is one job that is going to require dogged diligence and late hours to accomplish.

[Hoot Gibson]

The anti Trump forces are using subliminal messaging in an effort to give his supporters in Iowa an reasonable excuse for staying home on caucus night. If you have noticed, the suggestion has been repeated over and over again that Trump supporters may not brave the elements to vote. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say if the elements are harsh on Trump supporters, they will be harsh for the other candidate's supporters too.

I've not heard it suggested even one time that the winter conditions or the personal discipline necessary to show up at the polls to vote will effect any candidate's supporters other than Trump. I guess the thinking is that if Trump supporters are tired or otherwise tempted to stay home next Monday night, the oft repeated messaging will reinforce their desire to take a pass. :eyeroll:

I don't know which Republican will prevail. I do know that whoever lands the job will find a rough row to hoe lying ahead. Dems will be filled with indignation and very likely unwilling to cooperate in the slightest. If recent history is any indicator, their special interest caucuses would rather wreck the place than to see a Republican administration succeed. That is the sad state in which I believe we find ourselves today, and it may well take a man with 'New York values' to get much of anything done. The granny knot with which Reid and Pelosi has the Congress tied will not yield easily. The job of straightening out this land may have indeed been started, but this is one job that is going to require dogged diligence and late hours to accomplish.

The experts in Iowa say that Cruz already has precinct captains for 97 percent of the precincts. Santorum won the caucuses with 58 percent of the precincts covered. Cruz is also the second choice of more voters than Trump. I do not know all of the rules, but candidates must get a certain share of votes, or another round of voting is held and those candidates' delegates are released to vote for one of the other candidates. That process will favor Cruz.

Steve Deace, a prominent Iowa conservative talk radio host says that Cruz's ground game and the number of voters that list him as their second choice makes him the favorite to win. The evangelicals are well organized and experienced with caucusing compared to Trump's organization.

Trump will need a historic turnout to beat Cruz on Monday. It is difficult to see how Trump's refusal to participate in the next debate will generate much enthusiasm among his supporters. Trump has placed them on the defensive with his action today. Cruz's base will be fired up headed into the caucuses.

[Hoot Gibson]

According to Steve Deace, an Iowa conservative radio host, Cruz's organization in Iowa consists of the following:

99 county chairs
1800 precinct captains (for 1500 precincts)
over 10,000 volunteers
another 800 out-of-state volunteers

I predict the following finish:

1. Ted Cruz
2. Donald Trump
3. Rand Paul

Rand Paul has been working college campuses hard to bring in new young voters.

Iowa has always been difficult to predict, but Deace seems very confident that Cruz will win comfortably because of his superior ground game.

[RunItUpTheGut]

Cruz must take Iowa IMO. If Trump wins somewhere like Iowa right off the bat it may be a landslide in the rest of the country.

[Hoot Gibson]

Cruz must take Iowa IMO. If Trump wins somewhere like Iowa right off the bat it may be a landslide in the rest of the country.

I agree. Cruz will be in the race for the long haul, but if he loses Iowa, then he will need to have Trump self destruct. Cruz's best chance is to win Iowa, finish a strong second in New Hampshire, and start forcing the other conservatives out of the race. By all accounts, Cruz is running about the best campaign in Iowa that has ever been run. If Trump wins there, then he may be unbeatable.

[RunItUpTheGut]

^
I seen an editor of a local paper here not long ago ask why KY doesn't move up there primaries. Iowa gets all this attention only because its the first state, when Iowa is really useless. Imagine the millions of economic dollars KY would bring in if they simply changed the date.

[TheRealThing]

^
I seen an editor of a local paper here not long ago ask why KY doesn't move up there primaries. Iowa gets all this attention only because its the first state, when Iowa is really useless. Imagine the millions of economic dollars KY would bring in if they simply changed the date.

Although I am generally proud of my neighbors here in Kentucky, I can tell you right now Iowans are waaay smarter than many Kentuckians. For example, Iowa rejected the ObamaCare mandate, and did not set up a state exchange. Kentucky on the other hand, went so all-in for ObamaCare we became the ObamaCare poster child. Maybe things will get better now that we have a conservative Governor and Obama is mercifully soon to exit. In fact, I may do what you're doing and get a tat denoting his departure. nicker:

[Demarcus ware]

Although I am generally proud of my neighbors here in Kentucky, I can tell you right now Iowans are waaay smarter than many Kentuckians. For example, Iowa rejected the ObamaCare mandate, and did not set up a state exchange. Kentucky on the other hand, went so all-in for ObamaCare we became the ObamaCare poster child. Maybe things will get better now that we have a conservative Governor and Obama is mercifully soon to exit. In fact, I may do what you're doing and get a tat denoting his departure. nicker:

Well Beshear was an Obama loving overachiever nicker:

[RunItUpTheGut]

One of two things are certain.
Either a lot of people polled for Trump wont actually vote and Cruz will win.
Or Trump will win. Its really that simple IMO.

[Hoot Gibson]

One of two things are certain.
Either a lot of people polled for Trump wont actually vote and Cruz will win.
Or Trump will win. Its really that simple IMO.

Turnout is a key but the polls are not a good indicator of how caucuses work. Cruz will gain more delegates whose candidates not make the cut in the first round of voting because Cruz is a more popular #2 pick than Trump.

There are a couple of other factors that could be big.

First, snowfall could depress turnout, which would work against Trump.

Second, Gov. Branstad is a big supporter of the ethanol use mandate and he plans to have members of his campaign helping Trump Monday night.

Cruz is the only candidate who opposes subsidies for ethanol and it may cost him the state. I prefer driving older low mileage used cars and burning more ethanol in such cars will cause engine problems. There is no logical reason to force us to pay more for fuel, food, and almost every manufactured product with increased use of ethanol. It is just one reason that I am vehemently opposed to Donald Trump. He is the only candidate who advocates increasing ethanol blending with gasoline.

Iowa polls often miss the results of the caucuses badly.