[jammin' jamey]

The Reds wrapped up another losing season yesterday. It's gonna take pitching to turn the corner in Cincinnati if the Reds have any aspirations of contending for the NL Central next season.

Predictions for 2008...
1. Homer Bailey will be the #2 starter behind ace Aaron Harang...Bronson Arroyo will continue to faulter. Arroyo is (14-20) since the 2006 All-Star game.
2. Norris Hopper will be the starting CF come Opening Day 2008 against the D-Backs.
3. Jeff Keppinger will be the starting SS for the Reds in 2008.
4. Brandon Phillips will finally get the recognition he deserves with an All-Star appearance in 2008.
5. The Reds will pickup Adam Dunn's option for 2008. (in hindsight, it looks like keeping Dunn was a wise decision.)
6. David Weathers will remain the closer, with Jared Burton waiting in the wings. Remember Marcus Macbeth come 2008.
7. Jay Bruce will get a serious look in Spring Training, but will start the season at Louisville.
8. Tony LaRussa will be pursued by the Reds as the next Cincinnati manager if he doesn't return to St. Louis. If LaRussa turns the Reds job down flat or returns to the Cards, Pete Mackanin will be back as skipper. The Reds were 41-39 under Mackanin, but were 3-7 once Junior was done for the year and 1-5 when Dunn was put on the shelf.

These players will not be with the Reds in 2008.
Jason Allison, Juan Castro, Mark Bellhorn, Eric Milton, Eddie Guardado.

At least 3 of these players will be traded to improve pitching.
Ryan Freel, Scott Hatteberg, Joey Votto (gotta give good to get good), Josh Hamilton, Alex Gonzalez, David Ross.

Any thoughts??? It's a long offseason until the Reds comeback on March 31st, 2008 at home vs. the D-Backs. (Brandon Webb on Opening Day in Cincinnati vs. Harang).

[-STAT-]

I just hope that they can get some quality pitching to surround Harang and the up and coming Homer Bailey, especially the bullpen lord knows they need a lot of help in that category.

I am looking forward to the opening day matchup between Harang and B-Webb, should be a good one to open the season.

[More Cowbell]

I will disagree with you about Bronson Arroyo, I think he is still a solid #2 starter for the Reds. His ERA was 4.23 this year, not great, but only a half a run worse than Harang's. Don't be fooled by his 9-15 record this year, he was a victim of atrocious run support most games he pitched and had several more games blown by the bullpen. Guess who led the Reds in 'quality starts' this year? Nope, not Harang, it was Arroyo. Overall, Harang had the better year, but Arroyo wasn't nearly as bad as his record would indicate. And this comes from someone who watched almost all of the Reds games on TV this season, at least until the bottom fell out the last week or so.

I will also disagree about Hopper. He is a fine player, and will make an excellent fourth outfielder, but I don't see him starting over Josh Hamilton. I agree that they will pick up Dunn's option for LF, and right will be manned by either Griffey (if he isn't traded) or Jay Bruce (if he is). No room for Hopper to start, unless someone is injured. I also think Freel will almost certainly be traded, as there is really no place to play him. The emergence of Hopper makes this deal almost a slam dunk.

As for Keppinger, I think he will be the starting SS only if Gonzo is traded. I actually hope you are right on this one, because I like Kepp and I don't think the club will miss Gonzalez too much. If we can get a decent pitcher for Gonzo, go for it.

I think the Reds will shop David Ross, but I doubt anyone will offer much in return, so he will probably be back. Gonzo and Freel should bring some good return, however. I read that we hold an option on Hatteberg, and if we can exercise the option then trade him for pitching, go for it. I do not want to see Votto traded.

My last comment is about someone you didn't mention, but I believe Johnny Cueto will get a long look in the spring to make the rotation. If we don't land a good starter via trade, we may very well see a rotation of Harang/Arroyo/Bailey/Cueto/Belisle next year. Can't say that I would have a problem with that group, even Beslisle makes for a serviceable fifth starter.

[jammin' jamey]

I will disagree with you about Bronson Arroyo, I think he is still a solid #2 starter for the Reds. His ERA was 4.23 this year, not great, but only a half a run worse than Harang's. Don't be fooled by his 9-15 record this year, he was a victim of atrocious run support most games he pitched and had several more games blown by the bullpen. Guess who led the Reds in 'quality starts' this year? Nope, not Harang, it was Arroyo. Overall, Harang had the better year, but Arroyo wasn't nearly as bad as his record would indicate. And this comes from someone who watched almost all of the Reds games on TV this season, at least until the bottom fell out the last week or so.

I will also disagree about Hopper. He is a fine player, and will make an excellent fourth outfielder, but I don't see him starting over Josh Hamilton. I agree that they will pick up Dunn's option for LF, and right will be manned by either Griffey (if he isn't traded) or Jay Bruce (if he is). No room for Hopper to start, unless someone is injured. I also think Freel will almost certainly be traded, as there is really no place to play him. The emergence of Hopper makes this deal almost a slam dunk.

As for Keppinger, I think he will be the starting SS only if Gonzo is traded. I actually hope you are right on this one, because I like Kepp and I don't think the club will miss Gonzalez too much. If we can get a decent pitcher for Gonzo, go for it.

I think the Reds will shop David Ross, but I doubt anyone will offer much in return, so he will probably be back. Gonzo and Freel should bring some good return, however. I read that we hold an option on Hatteberg, and if we can exercise the option then trade him for pitching, go for it. I do not want to see Votto traded.

My last comment is about someone you didn't mention, but I believe Johnny Cueto will get a long look in the spring to make the rotation. If we don't land a good starter via trade, we may very well see a rotation of Harang/Arroyo/Bailey/Cueto/Belisle next year. Can't say that I would have a problem with that group, even Beslisle makes for a serviceable fifth starter.

You're right about Arroyo getting bad run support and I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I wish they would've traded him to Atlanta this season when they had the chance. He has a sub .500 record for his career and has been pitching career highs in innings/starts the past two seasons and even suffered from a "tired arm" at least once this season. I don't think he's going to get much better, but he's still better than most on the Reds starting staff at this juncture.

I hope Johnny Cueto gets a look. I was surprised he didn't get a call up late in the year when the rotation was depleted.

To be honest though, I think the Reds will use Milton's $9 million on picking up Dunn's option and Hatteberg (forgot that he had one). There are no arms to sign from the FA market, so don't be surprised if the Reds ship some talent to get talent. You are not going to get a top-shelf starting pitcher from any team for Gonzo, Freel & Ross. It's gonna take giving up someone like Hamilton or Votto to fetch a top-shelf starting pitcher and that's what the Reds need at this point if they hope to contend. Why did the Cubs emerge this season? Ted Lilly (career year this season) and Rich Hill (2nd full season in the bigs) stepping up to aide Zambrano. Even Jason Marquis won 12 games this year and had his lowest ERA since 2005.

With Jay Bruce in the wings, Hamilton can be dangled as trade bait.

Nobody is going to take Junior. We're stuck with him and that's not so bad since he's in RF now. Plus, if Hamilton is dealt, you have a solid playmaker/leadoff man in Hopper and if the teams goes south by midseason, the Reds could ship Dunn away and bring up Bruce.

Gotta give good to get good...Hamilton or Votto may be packaged with other vets like Gonzo, Freel & Ross for a top-shelf pitcher and a throw-in reliever.

[Scotty doesn't know]

You're right about Arroyo getting bad run support and I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I wish they would've traded him to Atlanta this season when they had the chance. He has a sub .500 record for his career and has been pitching career highs in innings/starts the past two seasons and even suffered from a "tired arm" at least once this season. I don't think he's going to get much better, but he's still better than most on the Reds starting staff at this juncture.

I hope Johnny Cueto gets a look. I was surprised he didn't get a call up late in the year when the rotation was depleted.

To be honest though, I think the Reds will use Milton's $9 million on picking up Dunn's option and Hatteberg (forgot that he had one). There are no arms to sign from the FA market, so don't be surprised if the Reds ship some talent to get talent. You are not going to get a top-shelf starting pitcher from any team for Gonzo, Freel & Ross. It's gonna take giving up someone like Hamilton or Votto to fetch a top-shelf starting pitcher and that's what the Reds need at this point if they hope to contend. Why did the Cubs emerge this season? Ted Lilly (career year this season) and Rich Hill (2nd full season in the bigs) stepping up to aide Zambrano. Even Jason Marquis won 12 games this year and had his lowest ERA since 2005.

With Jay Bruce in the wings, Hamilton can be dangled as trade bait.

Nobody is going to take Junior. We're stuck with him and that's not so bad since he's in RF now. Plus, if Hamilton is dealt, you have a solid playmaker/leadoff man in Hopper and if the teams goes south by midseason, the Reds could ship Dunn away and bring up Bruce.

Gotta give good to get good...Hamilton or Votto may be packaged with other vets like Gonzo, Freel & Ross for a top-shelf pitcher and a throw-in reliever.

Can not sacrifice that young talent even if it would yield a good pitcher. Hamilton, Votto, Bruce and Kepp are the future, I do not see the Reds dealing them away.

[More Cowbell]

You're right that there will not be any good free agent starters on the market. If the Reds hope to add a top-shelf starter, it will have to be via trade. As for who they trade, I don't know. I'm not sure Hamilton will bring a huge return, just too many ifs. He was injury-prone this year, and this was only his first full season in the majors after coming back from drug abuse, so who knows what his future holds? As he is not necessarily a 'sure thing', I'm not positive we will get an acceptable return for him.

Votto is another matter. I am not wild about trading him, I think he is a star in the making, but I would accept it if we got a top-line starter in return. If he is dealt, they had better get a good one back. Can't blow that one...

[More Cowbell]

Can not sacrifice that young talent even if it would yield a good pitcher. Hamilton, Votto, Bruce and Kepp are the future, I do not see the Reds dealing them away.

If some other team offered a good pitcher for Keppinger I would jump at it.

Don't get me wrong, I like Kepp and enjoyed watching him play this season. But while he is a nice player and a good guy to have on the team, he will never be a star.

[jammin' jamey]

Can not sacrifice that young talent even if it would yield a good pitcher. Hamilton, Votto, Bruce and Kepp are the future, I do not see the Reds dealing them away.

Nobody is going to give up a good starting pitcher for anyone short of players you mentioned minus Keppinger. Kepp is still iffy with me because he's never been a starting position player for an entire season in the big leagues and really has been a journeymen, much like Ryan Freel was when he came to the Reds.

No way would I trade Bruce or Homer. Votto has a high ceiling and showed lots of promise. Hamilton also showed promise and talent when healthy. One thing about Hamilton is that he adjusted to the big leagues quickly considering that he hadn't played professional baseball for a full season in what almost 3 years? He's a quick study and excellent hitter/fielder. Votto is still a rookie, showed great promise though, but do you hang on to him like the Reds held on to Austin Kearns and wouldn't deal him away until his value was down?

Pulling off great deals that change the landscape of your team is all about timing. The timing is right for Hamilton or Votto - depending on what you get in return.

[More Cowbell]

Pulling off great deals that change the landscape of your team is all about timing. The timing is right for Hamilton or Votto - depending on what you get in return.

I agree that pulling off a great deal is timing. Votto's value is probably very high right now - he had a great season in Louisville and looked just as good in September with the big club. Hamilton, I'm not sure his value is all that high. Yes, he showed that he was extremely gifted and that the game of baseball seems to come naturally to him. But he also spent several stints on the DL this season, and he has been frequently injured during his professional career. I would bet that other teams would be wondering if he can stay healthy for an entire season. If you're going to trade him, better to do it after he plays a full season.

If they do trade Votto, that will be the trade to define Krivsky's tenure as GM (yes, even eclipsing the Kearns fiasco). If he gets back a stud young pitcher to anchor the Reds' staff for the next several years, it won't matter how good Votto becomes. But if he whiffs on this deal and Votto turns into a star, it will set the franchise back for years. Again, if you trade a guy like Votto, you can't miss on this one.

[jammin' jamey]

If you trade a guy like Votto, you can't miss on this one.

Totally agree with that.