[Westside]

What is going on with Reed Sheppard?  He is averaging just over 3 points a game and shooting something like 30% from the field.  He is now headed to the G-League.  I am a Reed Sheppard fan so I am serious when I ask this.  Is he going to be a bust, or do you think he can turn things around?

[Bluecat]

I think the biggest issue with him is he was drafted to the wrong team. Houston is guard heavy. Going to the G league won't be a bad thing. It will give him a chance to play and work on things. Not sure if his future is with Houston or not but maybe he can land somewhere else. Of course my selfishness wishes he would have stayed at Kentucky and shined but money wise hard for him to pass up being a lottery pick.

[Van Hagar]

You’re absolutely right about Houston being the wrong spot for him. They are one of the best young teams in the league, don’t know if he will ever play there. And his shooting has been awful over the last month or so. I think he will get a shot past his two guaranteed years, but it may have to be someplace else.

[Cactus Jack]

I want to see Sheppard do well. He could retire tomorrow and will have accomplished more and built a legacy that most could dream of. Regardless of what happens in the G-League, I'll be rooting for him and hoping that he does well. Anyone calling him a "bust" is: 1. way too early and 2. completely oblivious to the fact that if he wanted to play in the NBA, this past year was his best chance and a once in a lifetime moment that he would never see again. Anyone who says "but imagine what he'd have done at Kentucky" is selfish for wishing he'd have done what they wanted him to do instead of making his own decision. Maybe they're more virtuous than I am, but if I were him, I'd have taken the money, fame, and dream of playing in the NBA in a heartbeat.


That said, between a "worst this decade" draft, a team that wasn't really the best fit but took him anyway because he had what they value in evaluations, and a questionable organizational culture fit, there's plenty that can go wrong.


On the draft pool-- he just isn't as talented as most top 5 picks in any other season. That's not to say he isn't talented, but you need to be an exceptional athlete to be a 6'2 or 6'3 combo guard in the NBA. What separates Reed from most "tweeners" is that most either have more bulk or a much better handle. Kemba Walker can survive in the NBA cooking people on ball screens. Marcus Smart isn't the size of a protypical wing, but I'd take him over most of them in a back-alley brawl.

As for why he ended up in Houston-- they are big on analytics and have a reputation of "you zig, we zag" when it comes to league trends. I think they fell in love with his numbers and what the data was telling them when someone like a Ron Holland or Ja'Kobe Walter might not have graded as well (Holland due to injuries and a crazy high usage rate against grown men playing for their livelihoods in the G League; Walter shot a lower percentage from three but was asked to create and take shots with a much high degree of difficulty).

Jahlil Okafor may seem like a weird comparison here, but hear me out. Coming out of Duke with crazy high efficiency numbers as a back to the basket post, I thought he would be a can't miss player. I went as far as to say that someone could regret drafting Karl Anthony-Towns over him if he got in the right system. I was warned about how many scouts found themselves looking for work after they'd fallen in love with a player who does one thing exceptionally well. After seeing it play out, the message was received, loud and clear (especially when the one thing that the player does well is either being phased out or the way those stats are accrued won't translate). Another phrase I've learned to live by when trying to project how someone will translate to the next level: "does he make it look easy?... because a can't miss player makes it look easy".

Sheppard shot an extremely efficient clip from three, but also had a lot of talent around him that helped him get clean looks. There isn't a stat or data point/grade for being one of the few shooters Calipari had-- there are fewer for being in that role and seeing more of your minutes against subs & sharing the backcourt with a scorer as electric but still unselfish as Dillingham. Pro scouts became hesitant to draft Alabama QBs as more than unknowns because their film was mostly them making throws from the kind of clean pockets that you don't see in the pros, especially if you are a team with a high draft pick. He graded really high in steals-- but there's a difference in getting some by having great instincts and sweeping passing lanes versus being someone with his size, weight, and speed trying to get up in an NBA guard, body them, and wrestle their dribble away. Leaping ability and blocks were other measureables that he graded well in that weren't going to translate to the NBA-- it won't matter if you can jump three feet higher than Russell Westbrook if you bounce off of him when you try to meet him at the rim.


Not saying Sheppard won't have a spot in the NBA or that he's going to be cut, but he's probably going to wind up needing to prove himself as a role player in his second city unless Houston is willing to commit to putting him in a role as a spot-up shooting specialist who primarily plays with the second team. Anything more than that, and unless someone has him just happen to fall into place for them, you are going to have to commit to constructing everything else around a prospect with a limited ceiling can do. That's something expected of the #3 overall pick, but not the #42 pick.

A better question may be this: best case scenario, who is Reed Sheppard's NBA comparison? It could be someone who played years ago. But who is: generously listed at 6'4, 185, shoots well but struggles to create his own shot or to attack physical close-outs, plays smart but has a suspect handle, and puts forth effort on defense but may never be more than a replacement level team defender?

Best case: Cory Joseph type player. Has a 12+ year career with minutes in various roles for a number of teams, including minutes on a championship team and being pressed into starting duty for a separate finals squad when the player he was backing up goes down with injury. If that seems like an insult, think about how many great college players there are, how few of those make the NBA, and how even fewer of those have rings or could say that they were starters in the NBA Finals.

[plantmanky]

Isnt an NBA talent player (at the moment, time will tell). Shouldn't have left, but knowing CAL was leaving and not knowing who the next coach would be I guess you go for the $$$.

[Old School Hound]

Pretty good G-League debut by the Golden One:

49 points,    6 assists , 5 rebounds,  3 steals, 1 block

[Old School Hound]

Isnt an NBA talent player (at the moment, time will tell).  Shouldn't have left, but knowing CAL was leaving and not knowing who the next coach would be I guess you go for the $$$.

Easy for someone with no talent , whatsoever,  to say.  Reed did the best thing for his financial future.

[Old School Hound]

[Cactus Jack]

Isnt an NBA talent player (at the moment, time will tell). Shouldn't have left, but knowing CAL was leaving and not knowing who the next coach would be I guess you go for the $$$.

Bolded is easy to say until someone puts $15 million on the table in front of you and makes you walk away from it (much less saying no to what is probably your dream at the same time).

I don't know what he made in NIL at UK, but it'd have taken him decades to earn that (and he was getting his first year NIL earnings regardless).

---

Houston is trying to make a play for De'Aaron Fox.

Having Sheppard go off in a G-League game and seeing his trade value skyrocket is certainly something that behooves them, especially when dealing with a clueless organization like the Kings. For perspective, Sheppard took 19 threes, the player with the next highest volume took 14 total field goals.

I'm putting as much stock into this one performance as I am a summer league game (that had people lining up to bet on him as Rookie of the Year).

For the love of God, I hope Sheppard doesn't end up in Sacramento, but I see them as the team most likely to end up with him and everyone else is a distant second.