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10-09-2024, 03:37 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2024, 03:46 AM by Cactus Jack.)
Trying to use a fair mix of "If the season ended today" and "how I think the rest of the season will go".
Top 4:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Iowa State
I don't see an SEC team going undefeated. Texas is the only undefeated team heading into this week, and they still have this week's neutral site gamea against Oklahoma, Georgia, @Vanderbilt, Florida, @Arkansas, Kentucky, and @Texas A&M. If they're even able to survive Georgia, I wouldn't be shocked if the Aggies spoiled their undefeated season. If nothing else, I just see too many games against quality teams for an Oklahoma, Florida, or even Kentucky not to upset them.
Ohio State probably comes into the playoff as #1. They've got road games (this week) at Oregon and later at Penn State, and get Nebraska, Purdue, and Michigan at home. I'm anything but a Buckeye fan, but I could see them taking a road loss to Oregon or Penn State and still coming out ahead of a Georgia team whose only loss is to Alabama if voters can't get the taste of Vanderbilt's upset of the Tide out.
Either way, I see the SEC champion and Big Ten champion ending up as #1 and #2. Miami has a good shot at running the table and sealing a top 3 seed, but I don't know that they are higher without knowing how the above plus conference championship games play out. I do think an undefeated Miami is higher than a two loss SEC or Big Ten champion though. Penciling in Iowa State as the Big XII champion and getting the last bye at #4-- could be a handful of teams that winds up there and earns the honor of becoming the sacrificial lamb for the #5 seed-- point being that it really doesn't matter which.
Five through Twelve:
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Tennessee
8. Clemson
9. Boise State
10. Texas A&M
11. Penn State
12. SMU
Georgia winds up being the best of the rest (if not the best). Their loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa helps with the optics. The 'Dawgs could well wind up being your #1 or #2 overall seed, I just can't rank them ahead of Texas based on what we've seen so far. Kentucky played Georgia really close, and how the Cats finish the season could have a big say in Georgia's ultimate seed.
Oregon winds up being the Big Ten's #2. A home loss to Ohio State won't totally derail them, and if they pull the upset, they can still afford a random upset, though I don't see anyone on their schedule who jumps out as a real problem-- there's no way Washington beats them in a regular season finale in Eugene to make it three times in a row, right?
Here's where things get interesting-- I'm going to skip to my #9 team, Boise State. They've played an Oregon team who I'm taking at #7 tooth-and-nail and this is the first year of the playoff, so the networks might not mind this scenario: #9 Boise State, the darling underdog that we've already seen kill giants, goes into the house of the lowest ranked team getting a home game in round one for a prime-time game.
In the same line of thought as above, I can't see a world where the SEC and Big Ten get as many teams as they might deserve (at least given the chaos that we've already seen so far). Clemson took an absolute beatdown from Georgia, but the ACC and Big XII will have a total of at least three teams, more likely four. I'll give the Tigers the #8, which really isn't much of a prize considering that they'd be getting a motivated (and perhaps underrated) Boise State.
I'm no fan of the Vols, but Tennessee has a road loss to Arkansas and can probably stand to lose one more and still get in. [U]I think Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt is a sign of worse things to come for the Tide, and one of the largest assumptions that I'm making here is that there season ends up going off the rails[/B]. Tennessee has Alabama and Georgia remaining, but it's still a much more manageable schedule with Kentucky, Vanderbilt, UTEP, and Mississippi State otherwise, and they probably actually benefit from sitting out the SEC Championship game instead of going and taking an L. In contrast, Alabama has South Carolina, @Tennessee, Missouri, and @LSU in a five week period before ending with Mercer, @Oklahoma, and Auburn. With games in Knoxville, Death Valley, and Norman as well as trap or rivalry games everywhere else, I just see the Tide taking at least one more bad loss. The eye test will go a long way in determining whether they get in over some of the other candidates.
To avoid rematches and/or games where teams from the same conference play in round one, I'll give the remaining seeds to Texas A&M and Penn State, two teams who have very manageable remaining schedules. The Aggies early loss to Notre Dame stings, but with Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, New Mexico State, Auburn, and Texas remaining, they have a fairly soft landing. Upset Texas or win out and look good against the Horns, and they could have a better resume than Alabama.
Will go against the grain and give the final spot to SMU, though this could easily end up being the Big XII's number two (such as BYU).
Edit: Texas A&M and Penn State should be switched above.
That does the following:
Round 1-
Guarantees no conference vs. conference match-ups.
Guarantees no rematches of in-season games.
Round 1/2 -
Guarantees that at least 1 school that is from neither the SEC or Big Ten wins a first round game and goes on to the next round as the lower seed.
Top 4:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Iowa State
I don't see an SEC team going undefeated. Texas is the only undefeated team heading into this week, and they still have this week's neutral site gamea against Oklahoma, Georgia, @Vanderbilt, Florida, @Arkansas, Kentucky, and @Texas A&M. If they're even able to survive Georgia, I wouldn't be shocked if the Aggies spoiled their undefeated season. If nothing else, I just see too many games against quality teams for an Oklahoma, Florida, or even Kentucky not to upset them.
Ohio State probably comes into the playoff as #1. They've got road games (this week) at Oregon and later at Penn State, and get Nebraska, Purdue, and Michigan at home. I'm anything but a Buckeye fan, but I could see them taking a road loss to Oregon or Penn State and still coming out ahead of a Georgia team whose only loss is to Alabama if voters can't get the taste of Vanderbilt's upset of the Tide out.
Either way, I see the SEC champion and Big Ten champion ending up as #1 and #2. Miami has a good shot at running the table and sealing a top 3 seed, but I don't know that they are higher without knowing how the above plus conference championship games play out. I do think an undefeated Miami is higher than a two loss SEC or Big Ten champion though. Penciling in Iowa State as the Big XII champion and getting the last bye at #4-- could be a handful of teams that winds up there and earns the honor of becoming the sacrificial lamb for the #5 seed-- point being that it really doesn't matter which.
Five through Twelve:
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Tennessee
8. Clemson
9. Boise State
10. Texas A&M
11. Penn State
12. SMU
Georgia winds up being the best of the rest (if not the best). Their loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa helps with the optics. The 'Dawgs could well wind up being your #1 or #2 overall seed, I just can't rank them ahead of Texas based on what we've seen so far. Kentucky played Georgia really close, and how the Cats finish the season could have a big say in Georgia's ultimate seed.
Oregon winds up being the Big Ten's #2. A home loss to Ohio State won't totally derail them, and if they pull the upset, they can still afford a random upset, though I don't see anyone on their schedule who jumps out as a real problem-- there's no way Washington beats them in a regular season finale in Eugene to make it three times in a row, right?
Here's where things get interesting-- I'm going to skip to my #9 team, Boise State. They've played an Oregon team who I'm taking at #7 tooth-and-nail and this is the first year of the playoff, so the networks might not mind this scenario: #9 Boise State, the darling underdog that we've already seen kill giants, goes into the house of the lowest ranked team getting a home game in round one for a prime-time game.
In the same line of thought as above, I can't see a world where the SEC and Big Ten get as many teams as they might deserve (at least given the chaos that we've already seen so far). Clemson took an absolute beatdown from Georgia, but the ACC and Big XII will have a total of at least three teams, more likely four. I'll give the Tigers the #8, which really isn't much of a prize considering that they'd be getting a motivated (and perhaps underrated) Boise State.
I'm no fan of the Vols, but Tennessee has a road loss to Arkansas and can probably stand to lose one more and still get in. [U]I think Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt is a sign of worse things to come for the Tide, and one of the largest assumptions that I'm making here is that there season ends up going off the rails[/B]. Tennessee has Alabama and Georgia remaining, but it's still a much more manageable schedule with Kentucky, Vanderbilt, UTEP, and Mississippi State otherwise, and they probably actually benefit from sitting out the SEC Championship game instead of going and taking an L. In contrast, Alabama has South Carolina, @Tennessee, Missouri, and @LSU in a five week period before ending with Mercer, @Oklahoma, and Auburn. With games in Knoxville, Death Valley, and Norman as well as trap or rivalry games everywhere else, I just see the Tide taking at least one more bad loss. The eye test will go a long way in determining whether they get in over some of the other candidates.
To avoid rematches and/or games where teams from the same conference play in round one, I'll give the remaining seeds to Texas A&M and Penn State, two teams who have very manageable remaining schedules. The Aggies early loss to Notre Dame stings, but with Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina, New Mexico State, Auburn, and Texas remaining, they have a fairly soft landing. Upset Texas or win out and look good against the Horns, and they could have a better resume than Alabama.
Will go against the grain and give the final spot to SMU, though this could easily end up being the Big XII's number two (such as BYU).
Edit: Texas A&M and Penn State should be switched above.
That does the following:
Round 1-
Guarantees no conference vs. conference match-ups.
Guarantees no rematches of in-season games.
Round 1/2 -
Guarantees that at least 1 school that is from neither the SEC or Big Ten wins a first round game and goes on to the next round as the lower seed.
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10-09-2024, 05:37 AM
That’s an excellent analysis of the landscape, CJ, and based in reality. But in a year when hell has frozen over (Vandy beats Alabama), here’s one from the fantasy file. What if UK won out from here? They’d have to get in wouldn’t they? 10-2 with wins AT Tennessee, AT Texas, AT Ole Miss and AT Florida. Plus, with two SEC losses, probably wouldn’t make SEC championship game, so a possible third loss there could be avoided.
I know, I know, the percentage chance of that happening are probably less than 1%. But it’s something I like about the expansion of the playoffs, you can dream a little later in the season than you could before.
I know, I know, the percentage chance of that happening are probably less than 1%. But it’s something I like about the expansion of the playoffs, you can dream a little later in the season than you could before.
10-09-2024, 12:04 PM
(10-09-2024, 05:37 AM)Van Hagar Wrote: That’s an excellent analysis of the landscape, CJ, and based in reality. But in a year when hell has frozen over (Vandy beats Alabama), here’s one from the fantasy file. What if UK won out from here? They’d have to get in wouldn’t they? 10-2 with wins AT Tennessee, AT Texas, AT Ole Miss and AT Florida. Plus, with two SEC losses, probably wouldn’t make SEC championship game, so a possible third loss there could be avoided.
I know, I know, the percentage chance of that happening are probably less than 1%. But it’s something I like about the expansion of the playoffs, you can dream a little later in the season than you could before.
If Kentucky won out and ends as a two loss SEC team (with one of those two being to Georgia) and had wins road wins over Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, I don't see how they could be left out, especially with wins at Florida and against Louisville, Vanderbilt, and Auburn.
10-15-2024, 01:41 PM
Updated as of 10/15:
1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Iowa St.
5. Ohio St.
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Penn St.
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. Notre Dame
12. Boise St.
Remaining Games with Greatest Impact:
Texas vs. Georgia
Ohio St. vs. Penn St.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
LSU vs. Alabama
LSU vs. Texas A&M
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Georgia vs. Ole Miss
Georgia vs. Tennessee
Notre Dame vs. USC
Likely Out of Contention:
Ole Miss
USC
Oklahoma
Left out scenarios involving the Big XII and ACC champions, though I do think that a Miami or Iowa State could lose their conference championship but still make it in as the #10 or #11. Notre Dame's schedule leaves plenty to be desired and their loss to NIU is terrible, but I see their sway being enough to land the #11 seed so long as they are able to win out.
Seeing LSU make it despite games at Arkansas and Texas A&M, then a home game against Alabama in three straight weeks along with trap games at Florida and against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma may be wishful thinking for Tiger fans, but they only have one loss and could afford another. I still see at least two of: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU getting in alongside Texas and Georgia.
Loser of this week's Ohio State vs. Penn St. will likely slide somewhere between #7 and #10 in the final poll so long as they don't lose again. I still think at least three Big Ten teams make the field.
Tried to find a way to have no more than one SEC or Big Ten team in a three team bracket (read: no teams from the same conference meeting until the semis) but was unable to do so. As is, #9 LSU and #1 Texas could meet in the quarterfinals. There are some different scenarios where this might be avoided, but it's kind of convoluted (unless we give Georgia or Texas the #5).
Under my current projections, the semis would most likely be Texas vs. Ohio St. and Georgia vs. Oregon. Based on their entire body of work, these are probably the four best and most deserving teams.
1. Texas
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Iowa St.
5. Ohio St.
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Penn St.
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. Notre Dame
12. Boise St.
Remaining Games with Greatest Impact:
Texas vs. Georgia
Ohio St. vs. Penn St.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
LSU vs. Alabama
LSU vs. Texas A&M
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Georgia vs. Ole Miss
Georgia vs. Tennessee
Notre Dame vs. USC
Likely Out of Contention:
Ole Miss
USC
Oklahoma
Left out scenarios involving the Big XII and ACC champions, though I do think that a Miami or Iowa State could lose their conference championship but still make it in as the #10 or #11. Notre Dame's schedule leaves plenty to be desired and their loss to NIU is terrible, but I see their sway being enough to land the #11 seed so long as they are able to win out.
Seeing LSU make it despite games at Arkansas and Texas A&M, then a home game against Alabama in three straight weeks along with trap games at Florida and against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma may be wishful thinking for Tiger fans, but they only have one loss and could afford another. I still see at least two of: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU getting in alongside Texas and Georgia.
Loser of this week's Ohio State vs. Penn St. will likely slide somewhere between #7 and #10 in the final poll so long as they don't lose again. I still think at least three Big Ten teams make the field.
Tried to find a way to have no more than one SEC or Big Ten team in a three team bracket (read: no teams from the same conference meeting until the semis) but was unable to do so. As is, #9 LSU and #1 Texas could meet in the quarterfinals. There are some different scenarios where this might be avoided, but it's kind of convoluted (unless we give Georgia or Texas the #5).
Under my current projections, the semis would most likely be Texas vs. Ohio St. and Georgia vs. Oregon. Based on their entire body of work, these are probably the four best and most deserving teams.
10-15-2024, 02:10 PM
@Cactus Jack that Bama-UT matchup will more than likely be a loser leaves town game in regards to making the playoff, unless something drastic happens, don't see either team making it if they lose. Texas-Georgia is going to be a mammoth matchup. Would love to see Penn St. finally break through and get that big time win that has always loomed large for James Franklin, beating OSU would do that for them.
Even tho they've always been the traditional programs, teams like Texas & Miami haven't had that success the last 10-15 years, so it's always fun when they're in the mix and at the top. Also what about Boise St? It helps having the Heisman frontrunner in Janty, but isn't it oddly coincidental that the Boise offense is this explosive, when Bush Hamdan leaves? Just my thoughts. But this playoff is shaping up to be a special one.
Even tho they've always been the traditional programs, teams like Texas & Miami haven't had that success the last 10-15 years, so it's always fun when they're in the mix and at the top. Also what about Boise St? It helps having the Heisman frontrunner in Janty, but isn't it oddly coincidental that the Boise offense is this explosive, when Bush Hamdan leaves? Just my thoughts. But this playoff is shaping up to be a special one.
10-15-2024, 07:50 PM
(10-15-2024, 02:10 PM)-STAT- Wrote: @Cactus Jack that Bama-UT matchup will more than likely be a loser leaves town game in regards to making the playoff, unless something drastic happens, don't see either team making it if they lose. Texas-Georgia is going to be a mammoth matchup. Would love to see Penn St. finally break through and get that big time win that has always loomed large for James Franklin, beating OSU would do that for them.
Even tho they've always been the traditional programs, teams like Texas & Miami haven't had that success the last 10-15 years, so it's always fun when they're in the mix and at the top. Also what about Boise St? It helps having the Heisman frontrunner in Janty, but isn't it oddly coincidental that the Boise offense is this explosive, when Bush Hamdan leaves? Just my thoughts. But this playoff is shaping up to be a special one.
Would have to look into tiebreakers to see how the SEC Championship would break down-- Texas and Alabama would have to meet there. Alabama does have the head-to-head in a two-way tie with Georgia though.
If Texas' only blemish is a single loss to Georgia or Alabama, there's no way that keeps them out of the playoff. I doubt two losses (some combo of Georgia, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and the SEC Championship) keeps them out either.
A two loss Georgia (at Alabama and in the SEC Championship) is a safe bet given their beatdown of Clemson in Week 1.
Because of the path they'd have to take to get there, I'd honestly be shocked if a two loss Texas or Georgia were ranked lower than 6th unless there's complete chaos and/or two SEC teams were ahead of them. If either comes in at #7-10, I don't think a #1 or #2 seed would want any part of either in the semifinal.
Wouldn't mind seeing Penn St. knock off Ohio St. either. If that happens, Ohio State probably still wins out and gets the third Big Ten bid. Can't see two quality losses at opposite ends of the country keeping them out.
When it's all said and done, I still think there's 4 SEC, 3 Big Ten, and 4 Big XII, ACC, or Notre Dame, and 1 at-large.
On Hamdan, think it's too early to tell. Outside of Oregon, who they've played well in the past and don't have a terrible road trip to, Boise State really hasn't been tested. At the time they met, the Ducks weren't seen as playing great either; they'd only beaten Idaho by 10 the week prior.
I still like the Hamdan hire and don't know that we'll be able to draw a ton of conclusions at this point, especially with Trayanum still shelved. Even if the offense continues to sputter, it may still be tough to tell how often he's getting overruled by Stoops.
10-29-2024, 05:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2024, 05:24 PM by Cactus Jack.)
Going into this week, I'll go with:
Byes:
1. Oregon - Big 10
2. Georgia - SEC
3. Miami - ACC
4. BYU - Big XII
1st Round Host:
5. Ohio St. - Big 10
6. Texas - SEC
7. Penn St. - Big 10
8. Tennessee - SEC
Last Four In:
9. Notre Dame - At-Large
10. Boise St. - At-Large
11. Iowa St. - Big XII
12. Texas A&M - SEC
That'd give a total of four SEC teams, three Big 10 teams, two Big XII teams, two At-Large, and one ACC team. The three team pods would break down as follows:
Oregon vs. Winner of Notre Dame @ Tennessee
BYU vs. Winner of Texas A&M @ Ohio State
Miami vs. Winner of Iowa St. @ Texas
Georgia vs. Winner of Boise St. @ Penn St.
Again, tried to avoid any rematches or teams from the same conference meeting for as long as possible, as I imagine that the committee will try to do the same. Also gave weight to teams I thought they'd like to see in *cough* Notre Dame.
Could see BYU and Iowa State changing places or even Kansas State. Could also see Clemson as the second ACC team instead of a second Big XII team as well.
Notre Dame has a great shot at finishing with only one early loss to NIU. I'm not exactly sold on Army and Navy, but those wins with Texas A&M, USC, Louisville, and Georgia Tech should be enough to get a high seed.
I don't see Indiana getting in despite what they did against Nebraska; maybe I'm wrong, but their next two weeks include a trip to Michigan State and playing host to Michigan, then a bye before going to Ohio State and hosting Purdue. If the Hoosiers do get in, I could see the fairytale coming to an end in a very bad way.
Boise St. probably runs the table and with their only loss being at Oregon, they're in a really good place to host a first round game if everyone ahead of them keeps beating up on each other.
Tennessee might actually benefit from a tough road loss to Georgia. That would give them two losses, but they still have the head-to-head against Alabama and otherwise winning out would give them another resume win against Vanderbilt. The Vols wins against NC State, Florida, and Oklahoma won't carry the weight we thought they would at the beginning of the season, but I don't see two road losses keeping them out. Most importantly, a close loss to Georgia all but keeps them out of the SEC Championship game and a good chance at taking a lopsided loss there.
The fates of Texas and Texas A&M are intertwined. They'll meet at least one time this season in College Station on November 30th and it's extremely likely that it will be to determine who meets Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Texas A&M currently leads the SEC with no conference losses while Georgia and Texas trail with one SEC loss apiece. The Ags have South Carolina, a bye, New Mexico State, and Auburn in the build-up. The Horns have a bye this week before meeting Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
I don't see Alabama or Ole Miss getting into the playoff. 'Bama hasn't looked great since the first half of the Georgia game. Ole Miss' could have survived a road loss to LSU but their home loss to Kentucky gets worse by the day.
LSU is in a weird position. Short of winning the SEC or chaos ahead of them, last week's loss at A&M and an early loss to USC will probably end up being too much no matter what they do from here. But they have manageable games with Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma remaining, so winning out and finishing with one loss in the SEC isn't entirely out of the question. Would need to look into the tiebreaking scenarios, but wondering if there's a way that they could leapfrog an A&M team (who lost to Texas) or otherwise find a way into the SEC Championship.
Still time for lots of things to happen, but we should be to the point of basically knowing the scenarios that would fill out 75% of the bracket at this time in two to three weeks.
Byes:
1. Oregon - Big 10
2. Georgia - SEC
3. Miami - ACC
4. BYU - Big XII
1st Round Host:
5. Ohio St. - Big 10
6. Texas - SEC
7. Penn St. - Big 10
8. Tennessee - SEC
Last Four In:
9. Notre Dame - At-Large
10. Boise St. - At-Large
11. Iowa St. - Big XII
12. Texas A&M - SEC
That'd give a total of four SEC teams, three Big 10 teams, two Big XII teams, two At-Large, and one ACC team. The three team pods would break down as follows:
Oregon vs. Winner of Notre Dame @ Tennessee
BYU vs. Winner of Texas A&M @ Ohio State
Miami vs. Winner of Iowa St. @ Texas
Georgia vs. Winner of Boise St. @ Penn St.
Again, tried to avoid any rematches or teams from the same conference meeting for as long as possible, as I imagine that the committee will try to do the same. Also gave weight to teams I thought they'd like to see in *cough* Notre Dame.
Could see BYU and Iowa State changing places or even Kansas State. Could also see Clemson as the second ACC team instead of a second Big XII team as well.
Notre Dame has a great shot at finishing with only one early loss to NIU. I'm not exactly sold on Army and Navy, but those wins with Texas A&M, USC, Louisville, and Georgia Tech should be enough to get a high seed.
I don't see Indiana getting in despite what they did against Nebraska; maybe I'm wrong, but their next two weeks include a trip to Michigan State and playing host to Michigan, then a bye before going to Ohio State and hosting Purdue. If the Hoosiers do get in, I could see the fairytale coming to an end in a very bad way.
Boise St. probably runs the table and with their only loss being at Oregon, they're in a really good place to host a first round game if everyone ahead of them keeps beating up on each other.
Tennessee might actually benefit from a tough road loss to Georgia. That would give them two losses, but they still have the head-to-head against Alabama and otherwise winning out would give them another resume win against Vanderbilt. The Vols wins against NC State, Florida, and Oklahoma won't carry the weight we thought they would at the beginning of the season, but I don't see two road losses keeping them out. Most importantly, a close loss to Georgia all but keeps them out of the SEC Championship game and a good chance at taking a lopsided loss there.
The fates of Texas and Texas A&M are intertwined. They'll meet at least one time this season in College Station on November 30th and it's extremely likely that it will be to determine who meets Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Texas A&M currently leads the SEC with no conference losses while Georgia and Texas trail with one SEC loss apiece. The Ags have South Carolina, a bye, New Mexico State, and Auburn in the build-up. The Horns have a bye this week before meeting Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
I don't see Alabama or Ole Miss getting into the playoff. 'Bama hasn't looked great since the first half of the Georgia game. Ole Miss' could have survived a road loss to LSU but their home loss to Kentucky gets worse by the day.
LSU is in a weird position. Short of winning the SEC or chaos ahead of them, last week's loss at A&M and an early loss to USC will probably end up being too much no matter what they do from here. But they have manageable games with Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma remaining, so winning out and finishing with one loss in the SEC isn't entirely out of the question. Would need to look into the tiebreaking scenarios, but wondering if there's a way that they could leapfrog an A&M team (who lost to Texas) or otherwise find a way into the SEC Championship.
Still time for lots of things to happen, but we should be to the point of basically knowing the scenarios that would fill out 75% of the bracket at this time in two to three weeks.
10-31-2024, 12:38 PM
Truly hard to believe that the first CFP rankings come out Tuesday Nov. 5th.
This season has flown by.
This season has flown by.
11-07-2024, 03:12 AM
(10-31-2024, 12:38 PM)-STAT- Wrote: Truly hard to believe that the first CFP rankings come out Tuesday Nov. 5th.
This season has flown by.
I think the committee got it mostly right with this week's rankings.
Two of the major gripes I have:
#1. I don't think Boise State should be 12th. Their only blemish is on the road to #1 Oregon. I've talked about why that game might have been a bit of a mirage (i.e., they have a history of playing one another, one of the big home advantages that they have in travel was negated, and the Ducks weren't playing their best at the time) but I still think the optics are bad. Boise State has been there before and are a national brand. I can see a world where they'd be favored against Indiana, BYU, Notre Dame, and possibly Miami, Tennessee, or even Penn State on a neutral field. I hate to borrow from Calipari here, but I think making them the #12 is more of a punishment to whoever gets #5. If I'm Ohio State or Texas, I'd much rather host an Indiana program that is rather unproven and has never been there.
#2. Miami at #4 is a bit high. I definitely don't think they're better than #5 Texas. ***This is a discussion of the team's rankings, not the seeding that forces a Big XII champion such as BYU or ACC champion such as Miami or SMU into the top 4.
You know, with Ole Miss beating Georgia and Alabama basically eliminating LSU, I think a fair question is, has the SEC actually hurt itself nationally by becoming so strong? In other words, it’s going to be next to impossible to go undefeated, and very difficult to just have one loss throughout the season when you consider the minefield the SEC schedule is. So will conferences that aren’t as deep (which is basically everybody else) benefit at the SEC’s expense? I mean, come on, Indiana and BYU are both good teams and nice stories, but they would each have at least two losses, probably more, if they were playing an SEC schedule. And there are still some more guaranteed SEC losses to come, Georgia and Tennessee still play later, as does Texas-Texas A & M. The SEC could possibly wind up with only two teams in.
11-10-2024, 02:06 PM
(11-10-2024, 11:43 AM)Van Hagar Wrote: You know, with Ole Miss beating Georgia and Alabama basically eliminating LSU, I think a fair question is, has the SEC actually hurt itself nationally by becoming so strong? In other words, it’s going to be next to impossible to go undefeated, and very difficult to just have one loss throughout the season when you consider the minefield the SEC schedule is. So will conferences that aren’t as deep (which is basically everybody else) benefit at the SEC’s expense? I mean, come on, Indiana and BYU are both good teams and nice stories, but they would each have at least two losses, probably more, if they were playing an SEC schedule. And there are still some more guaranteed SEC losses to come, Georgia and Tennessee still play later, as does Texas-Texas A & M. The SEC could possibly wind up with only two teams in.
I think the SEC is in real danger of only getting three teams in. I think it's going to be really interesting if Georgia beats Tennessee next week but gets blown out in the SEC Championship game. Would a three loss Georgia team who went down at Alabama, at Ole Miss, and to Texas at a neutral site (or de facto home game in Atlanta) be left out of the fold?
On another note, what would the Kentucky team who showed up against Georgia, Ole Miss, or Tennessee be against Indiana's schedule? I say undefeated, especially when they aren't all banged up. South Carolina is a mid-tier SEC team that would absolutely destroy Indiana on a neutral field.
11-11-2024, 03:27 PM
I agree with what's been said in this thread here. I'm happy for Indiana, but if they're in the SEC, they'd be having a totally different season. Agreed that, South Carolina would definitely pick them apart. Not even sure Indiana beats Vandy.
Right when I was all but certain Georgia wins the whole thing, they get picked apart by Ole Miss! I haven't seen the rankings yet since that. I'm thinking Georgia at the moment still has a chance. Have to see how it plays out rest of the way.
I maybe wrong but with Georgia losing, doesn't that make Tennessee kinda in the driver's seat, in the SEC east? Can't remember for sure how many losses Tennessee has.
I'd really like to see Ohio St win it all. I'm not necessarily a OSU fan, I just follow their conference pretty heavy. OSU player's have huge NIL deals. It equals up in the multi millions. Even with all that money for those players, not sure it's enough to push them to the title. Especially vs the SEC teams.
What happens if Colorado wins out and wins their conference? Would they have a shot at the playoffs?
Right when I was all but certain Georgia wins the whole thing, they get picked apart by Ole Miss! I haven't seen the rankings yet since that. I'm thinking Georgia at the moment still has a chance. Have to see how it plays out rest of the way.
I maybe wrong but with Georgia losing, doesn't that make Tennessee kinda in the driver's seat, in the SEC east? Can't remember for sure how many losses Tennessee has.
I'd really like to see Ohio St win it all. I'm not necessarily a OSU fan, I just follow their conference pretty heavy. OSU player's have huge NIL deals. It equals up in the multi millions. Even with all that money for those players, not sure it's enough to push them to the title. Especially vs the SEC teams.
What happens if Colorado wins out and wins their conference? Would they have a shot at the playoffs?
11-13-2024, 06:40 AM
(11-11-2024, 03:27 PM)King Kong Wrote: I agree with what's been said in this thread here. I'm happy for Indiana, but if they're in the SEC, they'd be having a totally different season. Agreed that, South Carolina would definitely pick them apart. Not even sure Indiana beats Vandy.
Right when I was all but certain Georgia wins the whole thing, they get picked apart by Ole Miss! I haven't seen the rankings yet since that. I'm thinking Georgia at the moment still has a chance. Have to see how it plays out rest of the way.
I maybe wrong but with Georgia losing, doesn't that make Tennessee kinda in the driver's seat, in the SEC east? Can't remember for sure how many losses Tennessee has.
I'd really like to see Ohio St win it all. I'm not necessarily a OSU fan, I just follow their conference pretty heavy. OSU player's have huge NIL deals. It equals up in the multi millions. Even with all that money for those players, not sure it's enough to push them to the title. Especially vs the SEC teams.
What happens if Colorado wins out and wins their conference? Would they have a shot at the playoffs?
To the bolded:
- SEC will be the top two teams. Tiebreakers past head-to-head get convoluted to say the least. The first two to three aren't too bad, but if I'm not mistaken, the final tiebreaker is a coin-flip. This week's game between Georgia and Tennessee and the game between Texas and Texas A&M will have a huge say in who plays in Atlanta.
- I may be in the minority here, but I think a three loss Georgia (at Alabama, at Ole Miss in the rain, and vs. Tennessee) should still get into the playoff. That may or may not happen, but I still think that's a pretty impressive resume, especially if they beat a Georgia Tech team that's beaten "playoff" (mentioned) teams like Clemson and Miami.
- If Colorado wins out, they go to the Big XII Championship game, probably beat BYU or SMU there, and get an automatic bid/first round bye and top 4 seed. They're most likely the #4 seed in that scenario and we see them play an Ohio State/Oregon or Georgia/Texas in the 2nd round and get rolled, but they control their own destiny.
Also agree that Vanderbilt beats Indiana, at least in a one-off during the regular season. Think Indiana obviously has a good coach and that if you gave them prep time against Vanderbilt then it might be different ('Dores do run a unique system that no one has really built a blue-print that every team can run against them yet, and their resume is better so far). I wasn't impressed with what I saw from the Hoosiers against Michigan.
Vanderbilt is exactly where I'd draw the line for Indiana in the SEC continuum though-- Georgia, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and Texas A&M would roll them; South Carolina and Ole Miss beat them by two to three TDs; Florida, Auburn, Oklahoma and Arkansas probably beat them because they're supposed to; Missouri is the wild card, always a Paper Tiger, but easily good enough to beat them if both play their best; Vanderbilt is the hot team that you could see going either way; nothing surprises you with Kentucky, is it the team that played Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee or the one who played South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida???; Mississippi State is the most sure-thing, but even then...
Basically agree with all that you said except wanting to see Ohio State win; they're definitely capable, but the Buckeyes and Volunteers are two teams I can't bring myself to cheer for.
11-13-2024, 12:59 PM
(11-13-2024, 06:40 AM)Cactus Jack Wrote:That's some nice point's there and I agree with everything you said. I definitely can't pull for Tennessee either. Ohio St., I follow their conference. Got some buddies that are die hard OSU fans. They poke fun at me often for being a UK fan. So if OSU goes down in the playoff I'm okay with that lol(11-11-2024, 03:27 PM)King Kong Wrote: I agree with what's been said in this thread here. I'm happy for Indiana, but if they're in the SEC, they'd be having a totally different season. Agreed that, South Carolina would definitely pick them apart. Not even sure Indiana beats Vandy.
Right when I was all but certain Georgia wins the whole thing, they get picked apart by Ole Miss! I haven't seen the rankings yet since that. I'm thinking Georgia at the moment still has a chance. Have to see how it plays out rest of the way.
I maybe wrong but with Georgia losing, doesn't that make Tennessee kinda in the driver's seat, in the SEC east? Can't remember for sure how many losses Tennessee has.
I'd really like to see Ohio St win it all. I'm not necessarily a OSU fan, I just follow their conference pretty heavy. OSU player's have huge NIL deals. It equals up in the multi millions. Even with all that money for those players, not sure it's enough to push them to the title. Especially vs the SEC teams.
What happens if Colorado wins out and wins their conference? Would they have a shot at the playoffs?
To the bolded:
- SEC will be the top two teams. Tiebreakers past head-to-head get convoluted to say the least. The first two to three aren't too bad, but if I'm not mistaken, the final tiebreaker is a coin-flip. This week's game between Georgia and Tennessee and the game between Texas and Texas A&M will have a huge say in who plays in Atlanta.
- I may be in the minority here, but I think a three loss Georgia (at Alabama, at Ole Miss in the rain, and vs. Tennessee) should still get into the playoff. That may or may not happen, but I still think that's a pretty impressive resume, especially if they beat a Georgia Tech team that's beaten "playoff" (mentioned) teams like Clemson and Miami.
- If Colorado wins out, they go to the Big XII Championship game, probably beat BYU or SMU there, and get an automatic bid/first round bye and top 4 seed. They're most likely the #4 seed in that scenario and we see them play an Ohio State/Oregon or Georgia/Texas in the 2nd round and get rolled, but they control their own destiny.
Also agree that Vanderbilt beats Indiana, at least in a one-off during the regular season. Think Indiana obviously has a good coach and that if you gave them prep time against Vanderbilt then it might be different ('Dores do run a unique system that no one has really built a blue-print that every team can run against them yet, and their resume is better so far). I wasn't impressed with what I saw from the Hoosiers against Michigan.
Vanderbilt is exactly where I'd draw the line for Indiana in the SEC continuum though-- Georgia, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and Texas A&M would roll them; South Carolina and Ole Miss beat them by two to three TDs; Florida, Auburn, Oklahoma and Arkansas probably beat them because they're supposed to; Missouri is the wild card, always a Paper Tiger, but easily good enough to beat them if both play their best; Vanderbilt is the hot team that you could see going either way; nothing surprises you with Kentucky, is it the team that played Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee or the one who played South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida???; Mississippi State is the most sure-thing, but even then...
Basically agree with all that you said except wanting to see Ohio State win; they're definitely capable, but the Buckeyes and Volunteers are two teams I can't bring myself to cheer for.
I definitely agree with you about Georgia. Even if they lose to Tennessee, their three loses are not really bad. Not bad enough to do them much damage in the rankings at least.
I'm glad you mentioned Georgia Tech. I'd forgotten about Georgia playing them here soon. And yes, them knocking off Clemson and Miami, will help Georgia if they win that game. I believe Miami and Clemson was ranked up there pretty good when Tech beat them. Man Georgia really has a strong schedule. Plus I believe they got ripped off last year, by being left out of the playoff. I believe Georgia beats Tennessee, at least I hope anyways.
Like you CJ or someone else was talking the other day, about the expansion of the SEC and how loaded the conference is. Are the SEC teams just beating each other up? Especially to where no SEC team is undefeated. Even with the rough year UK has had, we beat Ole Miss and took Georgia to the wire. Then we played Tennessee tougher than expected. Another thing I agree with, if UK is in any other conference, we're definitely bowl eligible. Some of these teams being talked about for the playoffs, if they played the Cat's schedule, we wouldn't be talking about them either.
I believe the strength of schedule of the SEC teams, will definitely show out in the playoffs. I heard some guys on Espn talking last night. About how for years big 10 teams have been wanting to play SEC teams in the playoffs, at big 10 stadiums, on their home turf. They been saying come up north, play us on our home fields, in our colder weather, and see what happens. I say to them, be careful what you wish for!
11-13-2024, 08:47 PM
Weather will be interesting.
Don't see the snow carrying an Indiana, Notre Dame, or BYU against an Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee, but it'd give Penn State a nice advantage. Don't know that Tennessee throws very effectively in the snow, but their defensive line could tee off on QBs.
Don't think that the snow would favor Texas (or Texas A&M), but there's at least a bit more history with them playing teams like Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State.
Boise State probably treats a blizzard anywhere else as a sunny day back home and would welcome a snow game.
Don't see the snow carrying an Indiana, Notre Dame, or BYU against an Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee, but it'd give Penn State a nice advantage. Don't know that Tennessee throws very effectively in the snow, but their defensive line could tee off on QBs.
Don't think that the snow would favor Texas (or Texas A&M), but there's at least a bit more history with them playing teams like Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State.
Boise State probably treats a blizzard anywhere else as a sunny day back home and would welcome a snow game.
11-15-2024, 11:45 AM
Great stuff CJ and KK. Playoffs going to be awesome this year. Hurry up and get to 16 teams and it will be as big or bigger than March Madness to me.
11-20-2024, 02:36 AM
This week's rankings are out.
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Boise St.
5. Ohio St.
6. Penn St.
7. Indiana
8. Notre Dame
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. Georgia
12. BYU
Initial Thoughts:
I thought Boise State was underrated at #12 given their body of work, but going from #12 to #4 (even as a conference champion) seems like a huge overcorrection.
BYU took their first loss last week, and is a 3 point underdog to Arizona State this week.
Ole Miss' home win over Georgia in the rain isn't enough to erase the stench of losses to LSU and Kentucky. Why are they ahead of a Tennessee team with more respectable losses (at Arkansas and at Georgia)?
Indiana is a feel good story for their fans and their coach obviously knows what he's doing, but they'd probably get smacked by any team on the list. At least the SEC has a chance to quiet Big Ten fans in this hypo-- opening games where Alabama would travel to Notre Dame, Ole Miss to Indiana, and Georgia to Penn State. I'd have to think the SEC team would be the road favorite in each of those. Penn State could beat Georgia if they play well, but there's a real separation between Oregon, Ohio State, and the rest of the Big Ten. Over time, I think the addition of Oregon is going to be a boon for the Big Ten. As they continue to be successful, more teams will try to emulate their speed and, with time, the conference will see more consistent results against the SEC.
Want to see if a shellacking from Ohio State is enough to drop Indiana out of the Top 12 entirely. Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite. I don't think two touchdowns will be enough to knock them out of the rankings, but a four-plus TD margin would probably be enough.
Georgia has played @Texas, @Alabama, @Ole Miss, and vs. Tennessee (with three of those coming in a four game span). Beating those four teams is probably a bigger ask than any path that any eventual champion could take through the playoff, but they're #11? Please.
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Boise St.
5. Ohio St.
6. Penn St.
7. Indiana
8. Notre Dame
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. Georgia
12. BYU
Initial Thoughts:
I thought Boise State was underrated at #12 given their body of work, but going from #12 to #4 (even as a conference champion) seems like a huge overcorrection.
BYU took their first loss last week, and is a 3 point underdog to Arizona State this week.
Ole Miss' home win over Georgia in the rain isn't enough to erase the stench of losses to LSU and Kentucky. Why are they ahead of a Tennessee team with more respectable losses (at Arkansas and at Georgia)?
Indiana is a feel good story for their fans and their coach obviously knows what he's doing, but they'd probably get smacked by any team on the list. At least the SEC has a chance to quiet Big Ten fans in this hypo-- opening games where Alabama would travel to Notre Dame, Ole Miss to Indiana, and Georgia to Penn State. I'd have to think the SEC team would be the road favorite in each of those. Penn State could beat Georgia if they play well, but there's a real separation between Oregon, Ohio State, and the rest of the Big Ten. Over time, I think the addition of Oregon is going to be a boon for the Big Ten. As they continue to be successful, more teams will try to emulate their speed and, with time, the conference will see more consistent results against the SEC.
Want to see if a shellacking from Ohio State is enough to drop Indiana out of the Top 12 entirely. Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite. I don't think two touchdowns will be enough to knock them out of the rankings, but a four-plus TD margin would probably be enough.
Georgia has played @Texas, @Alabama, @Ole Miss, and vs. Tennessee (with three of those coming in a four game span). Beating those four teams is probably a bigger ask than any path that any eventual champion could take through the playoff, but they're #11? Please.
11-24-2024, 08:17 PM
Talk about shaking things up after this weekend!
Texas A&M, Alabama, Colorado, Indiana, Ole Miss all take losses on Saturday.
Boise St barely squeaks out a win vs a Wyoming team with just 2 wins!
Seems like I'm forgetting a upset or two, there were so many!
Army took a loss to Notre Dame. I mention this because there was talks about Army possibly making the playoffs, if they won out.
Penn State wins by one point vs Minnesota. At least they won.
I haven't seen the rankings yet but man, talk about possibly shaking things up after this week.
Wonder what this means for the top 12 and the SEC title game?
Texas A&M, Alabama, Colorado, Indiana, Ole Miss all take losses on Saturday.
Boise St barely squeaks out a win vs a Wyoming team with just 2 wins!
Seems like I'm forgetting a upset or two, there were so many!
Army took a loss to Notre Dame. I mention this because there was talks about Army possibly making the playoffs, if they won out.
Penn State wins by one point vs Minnesota. At least they won.
I haven't seen the rankings yet but man, talk about possibly shaking things up after this week.
Wonder what this means for the top 12 and the SEC title game?
8 hours ago
Conference Championship Games are set and new rankings will be released later tomorrow. My thoughts/predictions:
Most Likely to Win Championship:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. Tennessee
6. Penn State
7. Boise State
8. Alabama
Don't see anyone outside of those eight being able to win it given the roads they'll face. Can't include a Notre Dame team who'll be no higher than 6th because I don't trust them to win three straight against playoff quality teams. Can't trust an SMU team to win what's probably a play-in against Clemson, get one of the highest seeded byes, and then win three more. Alabama has enough talent and tradition to do it but it's very unlikely that they'd be able to pull it off, especially starting on the road, either way, I wouldn't want to be the one playing them when they have nothing to lose.
Prediction on the Committee's Bracket on 12/3:
1. Oregon (Bye)
2. Texas (Bye)
3. Boise State (Bye)
4. SMU (Bye)
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Projected Big XII Winner (Iowa State or Arizona State)
12. Projected Big XII Runner-Up (Iowa State or Arizona State)
13. Alabama
14. South Carolina
15. Miami
16. Clemson
Chose this because it gives them the most flexibility to do what they want with their final rankings regardless of the upcoming outcomes. If Georgia takes a third loss, they can move them behind Ohio State if they'd like. If Penn State takes a 2nd loss, they'll use it to justify however they'd like to rank the Big Ten so long as Oregon is highest and Indiana lowest. Leaving Miami and Clemson below the Big XII finalists get the Big XII Champion in, then gives the final at-large to the committee's choice of an Alabama, South Carolina, Miami, SMU, or Boise State (if they're upset by UNLV).
The final bracket ultimately sees the conferences split (i.e., no first round match-ups with teams from the same conference) and I suspect we ultimately see each three team bracket that leads to the semis having one SEC team, one Big Ten team, and one team from another conference, or something very close to that.
Championship Week Predictions:
#1. In the SEC & Big Ten-- Penn State upsets Oregon or Georgia beats Texas. One of those two will happen.
#2. In the ACC, Big XII, and Mountain West Conferences, there's at least one bid getting stolen by way of an upset. Most will probably think that's Clemson beating SMU and leaving the committee with a tough decision on SMU or Miami, but I'm picking UNLV over Boise State, with both getting into the playoff.
UNLV is 10-2 with wins "eh" wins over Kansas and Houston. Their two losses are to Syracuse by 3 and to Boise State by 5. If they beat a Boise State team that isn't built to play from behind, they take the auto-bid as the highest rated Group of 5 Champion. Unless Boise State gets blown out or Jeanty gets injured, I can't see the committee leaving out the Broncos when their only other loss is by three points at Oregon. It won't hurt that UNLV's two "eh" wins are against teams that finished fairly hot (Kansas beat Iowa St., BYU, and Colorado in three of the last four and Syracuse just beat Miami). Everyone associated with the anything to do with the Mountain West (other than Boise State) is probably dreaming of getting two teams in and hoping that it's something that catapults them toward becoming one of the Power 5.
If UNLV pulls it off, they're still the #12 and served up as a sacrificial lamb to #5 Oregon, Georgia, or Texas. But Boise State as the #10 or #11 would probably only be a slight Vegas underdog against a #6 or #7 ranked Notre Dame and is likely favored against a #7 Indiana.
My Prediction on the Final Bracket:
1. Texas (SEC Champion)
2. Penn State (Big Ten Champion)
3. SMU (ACC Champion)
4. Iowa State (Big XII Champion)
5. Oregon (Big Ten Runner-Up)
6. Georgia (SEC Runner-Up)
7. Tennessee (SEC)
8. Notre Dame (At-Large)
9. Ohio St. (Big Ten)
10. Boise St. (Mountain West Runner-Up)
11. Indiana (Big Ten)
12. UNLV (Mountain West Champion/At-Large Conference Champ)
*Notre Dame's loss to NIU can be used to drop them below the runner-up of the Big Ten or SEC (who was just upset) and to ultimately balance out each three team pod with one SEC, one Big Ten, and one other team.
This bracket would be pretty unfair to #1 (whether Texas or Oregon) because they'd have a tough 8/9 and then be likely to meet up with the #5 in their semi, but it would make some compelling TV early and make for a really bracket from the semis forward.
SEC Fan's Doomsday Scenario:
It would infuriate SEC fans if we see a #3. SMU or Clemson (ACC Champ) meeting the winner of #6 Notre Dame and #11 Indiana. If this happens, one pretty overrated team who hasn't performed well against the SEC in these types of games in the past will be in the semi and another bracket likely has two SEC teams beating up on each other.
Most Likely to Win Championship:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. Tennessee
6. Penn State
7. Boise State
8. Alabama
Don't see anyone outside of those eight being able to win it given the roads they'll face. Can't include a Notre Dame team who'll be no higher than 6th because I don't trust them to win three straight against playoff quality teams. Can't trust an SMU team to win what's probably a play-in against Clemson, get one of the highest seeded byes, and then win three more. Alabama has enough talent and tradition to do it but it's very unlikely that they'd be able to pull it off, especially starting on the road, either way, I wouldn't want to be the one playing them when they have nothing to lose.
Prediction on the Committee's Bracket on 12/3:
1. Oregon (Bye)
2. Texas (Bye)
3. Boise State (Bye)
4. SMU (Bye)
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Projected Big XII Winner (Iowa State or Arizona State)
12. Projected Big XII Runner-Up (Iowa State or Arizona State)
13. Alabama
14. South Carolina
15. Miami
16. Clemson
Chose this because it gives them the most flexibility to do what they want with their final rankings regardless of the upcoming outcomes. If Georgia takes a third loss, they can move them behind Ohio State if they'd like. If Penn State takes a 2nd loss, they'll use it to justify however they'd like to rank the Big Ten so long as Oregon is highest and Indiana lowest. Leaving Miami and Clemson below the Big XII finalists get the Big XII Champion in, then gives the final at-large to the committee's choice of an Alabama, South Carolina, Miami, SMU, or Boise State (if they're upset by UNLV).
The final bracket ultimately sees the conferences split (i.e., no first round match-ups with teams from the same conference) and I suspect we ultimately see each three team bracket that leads to the semis having one SEC team, one Big Ten team, and one team from another conference, or something very close to that.
Championship Week Predictions:
#1. In the SEC & Big Ten-- Penn State upsets Oregon or Georgia beats Texas. One of those two will happen.
#2. In the ACC, Big XII, and Mountain West Conferences, there's at least one bid getting stolen by way of an upset. Most will probably think that's Clemson beating SMU and leaving the committee with a tough decision on SMU or Miami, but I'm picking UNLV over Boise State, with both getting into the playoff.
UNLV is 10-2 with wins "eh" wins over Kansas and Houston. Their two losses are to Syracuse by 3 and to Boise State by 5. If they beat a Boise State team that isn't built to play from behind, they take the auto-bid as the highest rated Group of 5 Champion. Unless Boise State gets blown out or Jeanty gets injured, I can't see the committee leaving out the Broncos when their only other loss is by three points at Oregon. It won't hurt that UNLV's two "eh" wins are against teams that finished fairly hot (Kansas beat Iowa St., BYU, and Colorado in three of the last four and Syracuse just beat Miami). Everyone associated with the anything to do with the Mountain West (other than Boise State) is probably dreaming of getting two teams in and hoping that it's something that catapults them toward becoming one of the Power 5.
If UNLV pulls it off, they're still the #12 and served up as a sacrificial lamb to #5 Oregon, Georgia, or Texas. But Boise State as the #10 or #11 would probably only be a slight Vegas underdog against a #6 or #7 ranked Notre Dame and is likely favored against a #7 Indiana.
My Prediction on the Final Bracket:
1. Texas (SEC Champion)
2. Penn State (Big Ten Champion)
3. SMU (ACC Champion)
4. Iowa State (Big XII Champion)
5. Oregon (Big Ten Runner-Up)
6. Georgia (SEC Runner-Up)
7. Tennessee (SEC)
8. Notre Dame (At-Large)
9. Ohio St. (Big Ten)
10. Boise St. (Mountain West Runner-Up)
11. Indiana (Big Ten)
12. UNLV (Mountain West Champion/At-Large Conference Champ)
*Notre Dame's loss to NIU can be used to drop them below the runner-up of the Big Ten or SEC (who was just upset) and to ultimately balance out each three team pod with one SEC, one Big Ten, and one other team.
This bracket would be pretty unfair to #1 (whether Texas or Oregon) because they'd have a tough 8/9 and then be likely to meet up with the #5 in their semi, but it would make some compelling TV early and make for a really bracket from the semis forward.
SEC Fan's Doomsday Scenario:
It would infuriate SEC fans if we see a #3. SMU or Clemson (ACC Champ) meeting the winner of #6 Notre Dame and #11 Indiana. If this happens, one pretty overrated team who hasn't performed well against the SEC in these types of games in the past will be in the semi and another bracket likely has two SEC teams beating up on each other.
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