[Cactus Jack]

No margin of error for the rest of the schedule if we hope to get to .500 and make a bowl. 

Ohio and Murray State will give us a total of three wins. 

Vanderbilt isn't looking like a sure thing, but if we lose that one, we're probably looking at a four or five win season at best.

Florida and Auburn are winnable. There isn't an outcome that would shock me here; either team could win close or blow the other out. All three programs are already on a terrible course and I think one of the safest predictions that I could make is that one of the three is probably looking for a new coach at the end of the season, if not sooner; I hope it isn't Kentucky, but that'll be another thread.

Tennessee will be heavily favored at home and we never seem to play well against them. Call me crazy, but even if the year is atrocious, I could see us putting it together against the Vols, Ole Miss, or Texas. We've always played Ole Miss fairly well in Oxford-- Lane also strikes me as someone who is a system coach that's good with lots of prep time and able to compete with anyone in a one-off, but is also susceptible to being caught napping or letting his team slip into buying too much of their own hype. Texas is at the end of the year and could be our "bowl game" if we're otherwise ineligible; before you laugh too hard, remember that historically, Kentucky is exactly the type of program that finds a way to beat the Longhorns. They renew their rivalry with A&M after we visit for what's going to be a trap game regardless, but their schedule is very favorable and I don't know that Vandy, Florida, and Arkansas soften them up on the approach. 

Coming into the season I didn't feel great about getting Louisville the week after going to Austin. I think this is the year that our streak is snapped, and I think that bandwagon has probably been filling up pretty quickly over the past two weeks. Hopefully that's an overreaction, as we're only two weeks in and the tides can turn quickly, but as things stand today, Louisville and Miami are looking like the two best teams in the ACC. If you go to ESPN and look at their October 19th game, the Cards are actually favored by 1.5 at the moment.


I want to be optimistic, but if you told me that I could guarantee that we don't do anything flashy but go 6-6 with wins against Southern Miss, Ohio, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, and Murray State while taking some bad losses against the rest; or I could watch the rest of the season play out and hope that we right the ship and pull off a bigger upset (or at least prolong the streak against Louisville) knowing that the wheels could fall off at any moment, then I'd call the former betting with my head and the latter betting with my heart.


If you were told today that you could guarantee 6-6 in the scenario above, would you take it, and if so, how are you feeling about the Liberty or Las Vegas Bowl? 

[jetpilot]

Excellent analysis as usual CJ. The more I think about that fiasco Saturday, the worse I feel. It is early, but that team isn't beating Florida, Auburn or even an improved Vandy team as of today. Georgia is going deliver a horrible beatdown that will be painful to watch then hopefully they regroup. Another thing about Spoops that I am really aggravated about - we don't know if the RB from Ohio State is out for multiple weeks or will play this week. Just frustrated right now. I would take 6-6 and a nobody watches bowl game in a heartbeat vs a directional school right now.

[King Kong]

The SC game was a real eye opener to me.  I had us winning possibly 7-9 games before that.  Man I kinda feel ridiculous now 

Vandy I had as a push over this year.  They beat a good VT team right off the bat.  Boy was I wrong again 


If we can get to 6 wins and get to a bowl,  then I'm okay with that.

[The Red Eminence]

I agree with all of your points CJ, and yes, I would absolutely take a 6-6 season. 

My own feelings about each game are as follows:

Georgia- Run. Run now, run fast, and run far. As bad as this will get, I don't think this game will tell us much about whether UK is falling behind or correcting itself. Simply put, UK does not have the program infrastructure to compete with teams like Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, etc. It never has, and it never will (no matter who we fire). 

Ohio- If UK struggles here... oh no. This will be the addendum to my previous comment about firing. If UK can't get it done here, THEN this will be the time for that kind of talk.

Ole Miss- I dislike few teams more, but there is no doubt they are hitting their stride under Kiffin. I expect this to get out of hand.

Vanderbilt- I'm hopeful for this game, even if Vanderbilt has improved. I think it will be a difficult win against a tougher than usual Vandy, but a win nonetheless. 

Florida- Hmmmmm. Depending on how the seasons go, this might be the battle of the hot seats. If UK has struggled up to this point and loses, this will be the game critics point to and say "See? See?" If UK wins, then it could help save a mediocre season with another moral victory. Remember when no UK team could even think about beating Florida? How far we have come.

Auburn- Copy most of everything from the Florida comment.

Tennessee- This one is gonna sting. Prepare to hear everyone's least favorite song, and a lot of it.

Murray State- If the season is going horribly, then I expect UK will look to vent some frustration out on another Kentucky team. Since I don't think it will be Louisville, here we are.

Texas- *gulp*

Louisville- I hope UK continues its recent history against the cards, but I'm afraid they won't.

[Cactus Jack]

Excellent analysis as usual CJ. The more I think about that fiasco Saturday, the worse I feel. It is early, but that team isn't beating Florida, Auburn or even an improved Vandy team as of today. Georgia is going deliver a horrible beatdown that will be painful to watch then hopefully they regroup. Another thing about Spoops that I am really aggravated about - we don't know if the RB from Ohio State is out for multiple weeks or will play this week. Just frustrated right now. I would take 6-6 and a nobody watches bowl game in a heartbeat vs a directional school right now.

Florida didn't look very good against a Miami team that they knew they needed to show up against at home.

Don't think Miami is terrible but they have been a bit of a paper tiger in recent years.

Billy Napier airing grievances in the press poured gas on a fire that was already about to get out of control.

Florida fans are probably looking at the Kentucky game the way Kentucky fans were looking at the South Carolina game, and we saw how that went.

[jetpilot]

I hear you but Florida fans expecting to beat Kentucky is a completely different animal than Kentucky fans expecting to beat South Carolina. The Kentucky team I saw Saturday wouldn't beat this Florida team in the Swamp 1 out of 10 tries...

[Old School Hound]

I'm still trying to decide who played the worst brand of football last week, Kentucky or the Bengals? That was some of the worst football I have seen in decades. Totally unprepared teams. I'm not even sure it was football that each loser attempted to play. JUST AWFUL!

[King Kong]

I'm still trying to decide who played the worst brand of football last week, Kentucky or the Bengals? That was some of the worst football I have seen in decades. Totally unprepared teams.    I'm not even sure it was football that each loser attempted to play. JUST AWFUL!

I unfortunately caught the UK game.  Missed the Cincinnati game though.  Only way I thought Cincinnati loses that game. With Gronk and a almost 50 year old Brady coming back for NE   

Upsets happen in sports.  UK football is due to upset somebody,  I believe This weekend would be a great time for that to happen 

No I do not really think it will happen.  Georgia is on a mission after getting left out of the playoffs last year.  I'm afraid they'll take some of that anger out on us this weekend!

One thing for sure,  If I'm fishing this Saturday,  I'm not going to cut my trip short to watch this game 

---

I agree with all of your points CJ, and yes, I would absolutely take a 6-6 season. 

My own feelings about each game are as follows:

Georgia- Run. Run now, run fast, and run far. As bad as this will get, I don't think this game will tell us much about whether UK is falling behind or correcting itself. Simply put, UK does not have the program infrastructure to compete with teams like Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, etc. It never has, and it never will (no matter who we fire). 

Ohio- If UK struggles here... oh no. This will be the addendum to my previous comment about firing. If UK can't get it done here, THEN this will be the time for that kind of talk.

Ole Miss- I dislike few teams more, but there is no doubt they are hitting their stride under Kiffin. I expect this to get out of hand.

Vanderbilt- I'm hopeful for this game, even if Vanderbilt has improved. I think it will be a difficult win against a tougher than usual Vandy, but a win nonetheless. 

Florida- Hmmmmm. Depending on how the seasons go, this might be the battle of the hot seats. If UK has struggled up to this point and loses, this will be the game critics point to and say "See? See?" If UK wins, then it could help save a mediocre season with another moral victory. Remember when no UK team could even think about beating Florida? How far we have come.

Auburn- Copy most of everything from the Florida comment.

Tennessee- This one is gonna sting. Prepare to hear everyone's least favorite song, and a lot of it.

Murray State- If the season is going horribly, then I expect UK will look to vent some frustration out on another Kentucky team. Since I don't think it will be Louisville, here we are.

Texas- *gulp*

Louisville- I hope UK continues its recent history against the cards, but I'm afraid they won't.

I agree with all of your and CJs points,  and you both done a great job on them. Especially the Florida game being the battle of the hot seats.  I definitely remember when we couldn't come close to beating FL.  If this was highschool football those years,  FL would've put a running clock on us. We have come a long ways.

[Cactus Jack]

I'm still trying to decide who played the worst brand of football last week, Kentucky or the Bengals? That was some of the worst football I have seen in decades. Totally unprepared teams. I'm not even sure it was football that each loser attempted to play. JUST AWFUL!

Didn't get to see the Bengals game but apparently I didn't do my fantasy research this year because Burrow and Higgins are looking like really bad investments so far.

[plantmanky]

Fire Stoops.

[Cactus Jack]

Short of a scandal or two win season, I don't think terminating Stoops is the right way to go.

Stoops was gone until A&M fans and boosters threw an absolute fit.

Stoops leaving Kentucky and performing well at Texas A&M likely would have left most Kentucky fans missing him once the reality of finding a replacement set in.

Funny to think about, but if Stoops leaves for A&M and the Aggies pay his buyout, what are the chances that money goes back into the football program versus going toward Cal's buyout?

[jetpilot]

Short of a scandal or two win season, I don't think terminating Stoops is the right way to go.

Stoops was gone until A&M fans and boosters threw an absolute fit.

Stoops leaving Kentucky and performing well at Texas A&M likely would have left most Kentucky fans missing him once the reality of finding a replacement set in.

Funny to think about, but if Stoops leaves for A&M and the Aggies pay his buyout, what are the chances that money goes back into the football program versus going toward Cal's buyout?

I hate the mindset that we have to stick with our (grossly overpaid and underperforming) coach because no one who might do a better job would ever actually take the job. Always turns out to be false. Plenty of very good and/or soon to be great coaches out there who would jump at the chance (and $$$). Other programs find them year in and year out. Not saying it's time to fire Stoops, it's not. But his seat might start getting warm...

[Cactus Jack]

Short of a scandal or two win season, I don't think terminating Stoops is the right way to go.

Stoops was gone until A&M fans and boosters threw an absolute fit.

Stoops leaving Kentucky and performing well at Texas A&M likely would have left most Kentucky fans missing him once the reality of finding a replacement set in.

Funny to think about, but if Stoops leaves for A&M and the Aggies pay his buyout, what are the chances that money goes back into the football program versus going toward Cal's buyout?

I hate the mindset that we have to stick with our (grossly overpaid and underperforming) coach because no one who might do a better job would ever actually take the job. Always turns out to be false. Plenty of very good and/or soon to be great coaches out there who would jump at the chance (and $$$). Other programs find them year in and year out. Not saying it's time to fire Stoops, it's not. But his seat might start getting warm...

I'm just as worried about the economics. The elephant in the room is that Kentucky basketball publicly swung and missed on names that they had ahead of Mark Pope. Jay Wright was never coming out of retirement, and Donovan not wanting to leave the NBA was understandable, but whiffing on a Scott Drew and having to move on to the next tier of candidates really stings and should be a warning.

The possibility that we have to buyout Pope and make a big offer for someone to replace him knowing that you can't miss the basketball hire twice in a row has to be in the back of administrator's minds.

If we fire Stoops, then we have to deal with all of the above, plus his buyout (which I'm sure was upped during the A&M play), attracting a new coach, and the reality that we'd be in a terrible, terrible spot financially if both Pope and the next FB coach were both misses.

It's at least easier to swallow if Stoops does so well that he makes an upward move to an A&M and we get his buyout and have some additional funds to attract the next hire.

Will post more in a bit on Stoops himself and why I think he's at least done enough for the program to dictate the way he exits (barring a scandal), but the financial reality of actually firing him (without cause) a season or two from now is probably tied to the performance of Mark Pope.

[jetpilot]

Excellent post, all valid points CJ.

[Cactus Jack]

Still very early in the LSU game, but one drive in and the loss to South Carolina isn't looking quite as bad.

[Cactus Jack]

South Carolina is leading 24-16 at the half. LaNorris Sellers just rolled up an ankle on one of the last plays of the half on a play that took them out of field goal range, so that's something to watch, but the Gamecocks were really in control early with a 17-0 lead.

Don't know that they'd have held on even with a healthy Sellers, but the sting of last week's beatdown is easing up.

[jetpilot]

South Carolina is leading 24-16 at the half. LaNorris Sellers just rolled up an ankle on one of the last plays of the half on a play that took them out of field goal range, so that's something to watch, but the Gamecocks were really in control early with a 17-0 lead.

Don't know that they'd have held on even with a healthy Sellers, but the sting of last week's beatdown is easing up.

Not for me it isn't

[Old School Hound]

South Carolina is leading 24-16 at the half. LaNorris Sellers just rolled up an ankle on one of the last plays of the half on a play that took them out of field goal range, so that's something to watch, but the Gamecocks were really in control early with a 17-0 lead.

Don't know that they'd have held on even with a healthy Sellers, but the sting of last week's beatdown is easing up.

Not for me it isn't

Just like with Cal, there comes a time when, regardless of what good things you've done, things begin to get stale. There's nothing that's quite as good as a hot, fresh loaf of bread right off the line in a bakery factory. But after a couple of weeks, the bread has lost it's appeal.  Same for Stoops.  Same for Mitch... Time to mosey on...

[jetpilot]

South Carolina is leading 24-16 at the half. LaNorris Sellers just rolled up an ankle on one of the last plays of the half on a play that took them out of field goal range, so that's something to watch, but the Gamecocks were really in control early with a 17-0 lead.

Don't know that they'd have held on even with a healthy Sellers, but the sting of last week's beatdown is easing up.

Not for me it isn't

Just like with Cal, there comes a time when, regardless of what good things you've done, things begin to get stale. There's nothing that's quite as good as a hot, fresh loaf of bread right off the line in a bakery factory. But after a couple of weeks, the bread has lost it's appeal.  Same for Stoops.  Same for Mitch... Time to mosey on...

Agreed. Especially when the old loaf of bread has $100 million+ of our money in the bank and doesn't care if we like it or not

[Cactus Jack]

My Case for Keeping Stoops:

#1. For Those Who Want Stoops Gone, Who Are You Suggesting We Realistically Hire, Especially Considering Buyouts, etc.?
Kentucky will be viewed as a basketball school first. Are fans willing to bet on our ability to catch lightning in a bottle by hiring and retaining an Urban Meyer as he leaves Bowling Green or Utah?

The Nebraska and Colorado jobs are widely viewed as better than, or at least equal to, Kentucky. We see how the splashy hires of the ex-NFL guy (Rhule) and influencer/recruiter (Sanders) are doing there.

Does a young coach take a look at how Stoops gradually elevated a Kentucky program that was frankly in terrible shape when he was hired only to be fired and have concern? Does the fact that Stoops' decline coincides with the implementation of NIL and see some validity in his divisive speech about donating to the NIL fund if you were unhappy?


#2. He's Already Been Good Enough to be Considered for the Expanded Playoff:
The next step for the program used to be a BCS bowl and is now making the playoff. Stoops likely doesn't win a national championship at Kentucky, but he's had seasons that would have at least had us in the conversation for a playoff spot in the new 12 team format. It's much more likely that the field expands to 14 (with the SEC and Big Ten champs getting byes) or 16 teams than the field contracting to 8 or 10 teams.


#3. I'm Probably Not As Concerned About His Style As You Are:
His best teams' calling card seems to be playing physical defense with a strong secondary and controlling the clock with physical backs running behind a stout offensive line. Sure, rock fights filled with high leverage possessions are the exact opposite of the video game numbers that most who want Stoops gone would want from the next coach on day one, but are is that sustainable for a completely rebuilding Kentucky in the SEC? And make no joke about it, Kentucky would probably be rebuilding if Stoops were to be fired anytime soon, otherwise they couldn't justify it unless they had someone who was unquestionably better waiting in the wings.

It isn't as if Stoops hasn't tried to open up the offense, and I'm fine with looking to add an offensive coordinator as the "missing piece" instead of risking it all by getting too gimmicky too soon.

As mentioned, we're already lagging in NIL funds and QB is the most expensive investment. I'm too risk averse to feel great about having my biggest investment drop back 40 times per week like I'm playing Madden or NCAA, at least with the resources we have right now. Kentucky isn't an Alabama, Georgia, or LSU that has the type of depth and NIL funds to be able to absorb a back-up QB that you can count on to win a conference game when your #1 is down.

Rock fights aren't pretty, but they keep you from getting blown out and those type of style points can matter when analysts are splitting hairs between who gets the #10, #11, and #12 seeds and who is watching the playoffs from home.


4. He's Making the Best of the Limited Resources He Currently Has:
Kentucky doesn't produce enough high school talent on its own to feed a perennial contender, especially when splitting with Louisville). This is where his ability to recruit in Ohio and the Detroit area is much needed. If he were replaced, we'd be asking his replacement to find that same type of base (i.e., getting fringe kids from a talent rich area that the stronger in-state traditional power wasn't willing to take a risk on).

If you'll remember, under Mumme, we ended up on probation when we tried to go into the Memphis/Nashville area and compete for kids with Tennessee and Alabama. Not as likely that we find ourselves on probation for trying to elbow in on other program's turf in the NIL era, but recruiting is still a cutthroat business and I'm not sure that anyone else we'd bring in has the advantage of having such a network in states that are so close to Kentucky but still not in the SEC. Kentucky has spent decades building bridges in Georgia, and Stoops has some connections in the Florida area from his days at Miami, so it honestly works about as well as you could ask. I'm thinking that the only way a recruiter could do much, much better is by going completely rouge and ending up with a situation like Briles' Baylor or Meyers' Florida where the recruiting wins end up coming at too much of a moral cost.

[Strikeout King]

Kentucky needs a coach like Kirby Smart, Stoops isn't that. I think and this is JMO, Stoops has reached his ceiling and I don't think he really wants to be here or else he wouldn't have been entertaining the Texas A&M offer last season.

I will give Stoops credit, he's brought Kentucky to where it is now from where it was, that's a big improvement.

[Cactus Jack]

Kentucky needs a coach like Kirby Smart, Stoops isn't that. I think and this is JMO, Stoops has reached his ceiling and I don't think he really wants to be here or else he wouldn't have been entertaining the Texas A&M offer last season.

I will give Stoops credit, he's brought Kentucky to where it is now from where it was, that's a big improvement.

Texas A&M was throwing more at him than Kentucky could offer. It'd have stung if he left and I don't know that he'd have done great there because it'd mean pulling Ohio and Michigan kids all the way to Texas, but I don't know that he'd have done terrible either and no matter how much it stung, I'd understand him leaving for a better opportunity because we'd probably feel the same about dropping him for a bigger name.

Stoops has done tons for Kentucky though. At this point, he could leave and not owe us anything.

[plantmanky]

FIRE STOOPS TODAY!!!!!!!!

[Cactus Jack]

After the weeks that both Florida and Florida State had, what are the chances that one of them pursues Stoops this offseason? Stoops has ties to Florida from his days at Miami.

I'd imagine that he won't be #1 on either school's list, but if nothing else, that's two big time programs who'll be involved in the coaching carousel. Had we beaten Georgia, he might have shot up the list of candidates for the Gators.

[King Kong]

After the weeks that both Florida and Florida State had, what are the chances that one of them pursues Stoops this offseason? Stoops has ties to Florida from his days at Miami.

I'd imagine that he won't be #1 on either school's list, but if nothing else, that's two big time programs who'll be involved in the coaching carousel. Had we beaten Georgia, he might have shot up the list of candidates for the Gators.

That's definitely interesting.  I'm guessing Florida and Florida St.  invests more in their football programs than UK.  Look where Stoops has brought us with perhaps limited resources.  If he can do that here just think what he might do at a school with unlimited resources.

[-STAT-]

After the weeks that both Florida and Florida State had, what are the chances that one of them pursues Stoops this offseason? Stoops has ties to Florida from his days at Miami.

I'd imagine that he won't be #1 on either school's list, but if nothing else, that's two big time programs who'll be involved in the coaching carousel. Had we beaten Georgia, he might have shot up the list of candidates for the Gators.

Could be a possibility, makes me think about whenever Stoops was basically out the door and on the way to College Station to take the A&M job. 

That would be one of those jobs that you have unlimited resources, and the fan base basically was going to burn College Station down whenever the rumors first surfaced. Have a feeling that it would the same if either Florida/FSU showed any interest.

[jetpilot]

After the weeks that both Florida and Florida State had, what are the chances that one of them pursues Stoops this offseason? Stoops has ties to Florida from his days at Miami.

I'd imagine that he won't be #1 on either school's list, but if nothing else, that's two big time programs who'll be involved in the coaching carousel. Had we beaten Georgia, he might have shot up the list of candidates for the Gators.

That's definitely interesting.  I'm guessing Florida and Florida St.  invests more in their football programs than UK.  Look where Stoops has brought us with perhaps limited resources.  If he can do that here just think what he might do at a school with unlimited resources.

I wouldn't say limited resources, we pay him $9 million a year almost 'til  the end of time and the practice facility is second to none. Plus make a zillion $$ just for being in the SEC. I don't see any area where we are lacking due to shortage of funds lol

[Old School Hound]

After the weeks that both Florida and Florida State had, what are the chances that one of them pursues Stoops this offseason? Stoops has ties to Florida from his days at Miami.

I'd imagine that he won't be #1 on either school's list, but if nothing else, that's two big time programs who'll be involved in the coaching carousel. Had we beaten Georgia, he might have shot up the list of candidates for the Gators.

That's definitely interesting.  I'm guessing Florida and Florida St.  invests more in their football programs than UK.  Look where Stoops has brought us with perhaps limited resources.  If he can do that here just think what he might do at a school with unlimited resources.

I wouldn't say limited resources, we pay him $9 million a year almost 'til  the end of time and the practice facility is second to none. Plus make a zillion $$ just for being in the SEC. I don't see any area where we are lacking due to shortage of funds lol

A bunch of Stoop's pay should go to house the homeless and feed babies with empty tummies.

[jetpilot]

^^^It just gets so damn old

[Old School Hound]

^^^It just gets so damn old

I am old.  My semen turned to sawdust in 1988.