[Strikeout King]

Reed needs to come back for another year.

[Cactus Jack]

Reed needs to come back for another year.

Weak draft class this season. He can come back for ten more years, but he's probably never going to be projected any higher than he is right now.

[jetpilot]

Reed needs to come back for another year.

Weak draft class this season. He can come back for ten more years, but he's probably never going to be projected any higher than he is right now.

I agree 100%. Take the money now and get far away from UK and never look back.

[RunItUpTheGut]

After tonight’s performance he shouldn’t see the g league

[Cactus Jack]

I agree 100%. Take the money now and get far away from UK and never look back.

If he thinks the draft stock took a hit this year, imagine if he comes back and doesn't perform as well and there's even more bad film piling up.

If his dream is to play in the NBA as long as possible, this is the time. Next year's draft will be stronger at the top alone because there's at least a consensus #1 in Cooper Flagg and there's been a fairly consistent consensus on some guys behind him (Bailey, Maluach, Bethea, Bidunga, Johnson). Look at some highlight tapes of Hugo Gonzalez from Spain-- does a lot of what Sheppard does but is 6'6 and will be eligible in 2025. There'll always be some guys who get to college and sink like rocks (example: Edwards, Wagner) and some foreign prospects that are discovered, but I'm guessing that a few of the names I've just mentioned would have been the consensus #1 in this class.

If I'm an NBA GM (which I'm definitely not), I'm looking at someone like Ja'Kobe Walter of Baylor or Ron Holland (G League) and just realizing that it's probably the best I'm going to do unless I punch a lottery ticket or workout a foreign born player that I love and hope that I can keep it under wraps long enough that someone else doesn't snatch them up.

[pjdoug]

Well, I'm about to make everybody mad.

He could get hurt in the NBA as well as at UK.  Maybe even more of a chance.  But that's neither here nor there.

IMO, NOBODY should come out of high school and within a year, be drafted to the NBA.  Reed does have the advantage of having parents who knows basketball and is familiar with NBA.  So he does have an advantage there.  BUT, I still say that I don't think it's good for the player to be drafted this young.

Go ahead.  Tear me apart.  I dare you!!!

hmmm

[Old School Hound]

Reed needs to come back for another year.

Weak draft class this season. He can come back for ten more years, but he's probably never going to be projected any higher than he is right now.

So?  What about the loyalty factor, the pride for the name on the jersey that KY fans keep clamoring for? Fans whine incessantly about the one and dones not caring about the school and just wanting to get paid at the next level.The days for playing for pride are over. I agree that he is not ready for the NBA but it's hard to blame a kid for taking millions when it's thrown at him. Do like Steve Miller said and "Take the money and run. "

[Van Hagar]

On this point I agree with you. Four year players that you recruit are basically a thing of the past, especially at a place like Kentucky. If we are gonna have a roster with veterans, almost all of them are going to come from other schools via the transfer portal. Sheppard sure doesn’t seem ready for the NBA to me—I haven’t understood his high ranking all year—but if the ‘smart’ guys say he is a lottery pick, he’d better go now. One word of caution though. If I’m not mistaken, our own Will Levis was basically a guaranteed high first rounder in the NFL draft a year ago. Didn’t quite work out that way, cost him millions. I’d have to be damn sure I was a lottery pick before I left, if I was Reed.

[Cactus Jack]

ESPN Insider released an updated Mock Draft earlier this morning. It has Dillingham at #3 to San Antonio and Sheppard at #7 to Memphis.

This mock isn't the end-all, be-all, but this year's draft is sooooooo incredibly weak. I'm sure that teams in the lottery would love to trade their picks, but the market just isn't there because everyone else feels the same about what's available. I don't know that there's a player out there that's seen as a lock to be anything more than a starter for a few years or a rotation piece.

If there's a college player with multiple time All-Star potential and low downside that I'm missing, someone should point them out.

To illustrate just how bad it is: Edwards, Onyenso and Wagner are still included in mocks, with Edwards projected as a late first rounder.

I don't think Sheppard is NBA ready, nor do I think he's a lottery pick, but if someone is going to make him one, he should let them. The amount that's invested in and the chances given to a lottery pick are much different than what's given to a late first or early second rounder.

[Cactus Jack]

ESPN released an updated Mock Draft yesterday and projected Sheppard to Memphis at #7. Same mock has Dillingham to San Antonio at #4, Edwards to Boston at #30, Onyenso to Washington at #46, and Wagner to the Heat at #47.

UConn is next with 4 players projected, but the final two are within the last 8 slots.

[jetpilot]

ESPN released an updated Mock Draft yesterday and projected Sheppard to Memphis at #7. Same mock has Dillingham to San Antonio at #4, Edwards to Boston at #30, Onyenso to Washington at #46, and Wagner to the Heat at #47.

UConn is next with 4 players projected, but the final two are within the last 8 slots.

Look what UConn is doing vs UK with less talent. Cal should be embarrassed but doesn't have the character to be lol
All of those UK players would be insane to stay unless they don't care about the NBA...they will never be drafted higher than this year IMO

[Spud6]

ESPN released an updated Mock Draft yesterday and projected Sheppard to Memphis at #7. Same mock has Dillingham to San Antonio at #4, Edwards to Boston at #30, Onyenso to Washington at #46, and Wagner to the Heat at #47.

UConn is next with 4 players projected, but the final two are within the last 8 slots.

Just to think Reed went from #1 pick to #7 from the SEC tournament to NCAA tournament game. I think if these guys are this highly rated, they have to go because besides Rob.  They probably only go down in next years draft class but someone was saying that next years draft won't be very strong either.

[Cactus Jack]

Just to think Reed went from #1 pick to #7 from the SEC tournament to NCAA tournament game. I think if these guys are this highly rated, they have to go because besides Rob.  They probably only go down in next years draft class but someone was saying that next years draft won't be very strong either.

I'm not trying to be a hater, but I think the only reason Reed was #1 overall is because of the amount of clicks and shares that it got.

That and you can't keep people interested with a list that is basically the same over and over.

I'm pretty sure that the only mock that put him there was The Ringer, not ESPN.

I don't know that anyone else has ever put him above both Sarr and Risacher. Again, not trying to attack him, just more of a commentary on how fans consume information.


2025 may not be very deep but there are at least three players there who'd hands-down go #1 overall this year if eligible (Flagg, Bailey, and Maluach). That might have just as much to do with 2024 being one of those "once or twice in a decade bad" classes-- I don't think that 2013 or 2014 weak & relying on a sleeper like Giannis or Jokic is out of the question.

If you think about it, the 2024 class was probably hit hardest by COVID in terms of missed games, disruptions, and players older than them getting a free year & presenting less uncertainty.

[jetpilot]

Hey CJ what's the difference in drafted #1 and #7 $$$ wise? Reed still getting rich no matter what right?

[jetpilot]

Really is there is huge difference? I have no idea but rich is rich lol.

[Cactus Jack]

Hey CJ what's the difference in drafted #1 and #7 $$$ wise? Reed still getting rich no matter what right?

More than I'll ever make either way.

RealGM has the following breakdown. For overall earnings, there'd probably be some fluctuation with the city that the player got drafted to, their marketability, and state or national taxes (despite the "jock tax"), but I think this should be close to the baseline [and teams can pay them 120% of this amount if they choose]:

* is Option for Year 4 expressed as a percentage increase over their Year 3 Salary
** is Qualifying Offer expressed as a percentage increase over their Year 4 Salary

1st Yr. 2nd Yr. 3rd Yr. Opt. 4th Yr.* Qualifying Offer**

1 $10,504,800; $11,030,300; $11,555,400; 26.1%; 40.0%
2 $9,398,900; $9,869,000; $10,339,100; 26.2%; 40.5%
3 $8,440,400; $8,862,200; $9,284,600; 26.4%; 41.2%
4 $7,609,800; $7,990,500; $8,371,100; 26.5%; 41.9%
5 $6,891,200; $7,235,500; $7,580,200; 26.7%; 42.6%
6 $6,258,900; $6,571,900; $6,885,000; 26.8%; 43.4%
7 $5,713,700; $5,999,600; $6,284,900; 27.0%; 44.1%
8 $5,234,400; $5,496,200; $5,757,900; 27.2%; 44.8%
9 $4,811,500; $5,052,300; $5,292,800; 27.4%; 45.5%
10 $4,570,900; $4,799,400; $5,027,700; 27.5%; 46.2%

#1 overall is locked in to $21.5 million; #7 is locked in to $11.69 million.
For perspective, Sheppard's NIL value is unknown but it was estimated at around $400,000 this winter.

[jetpilot]

^^^Thanks CJ. Sheppard is gone lol

[Cactus Jack]

Recently heard a comparsion that I thought was pretty interesting and good fodder for discussion: Kirk Hinrich.

[Spud6]

Recently heard a comparsion that I thought was pretty interesting and good fodder for discussion: Kirk Hinrich.

I don't hate that comparison or JJ Reddick or the guy that could shoot the 3 for the Atlanta Hawks when they were in the deep playoff runs

[Cactus Jack]

I don't hate that comparison or JJ Reddick or the guy that could shoot the 3 for the Atlanta Hawks when they were in the deep playoff runs

JJ Reddick is not a good comparison IMO. Sheppard is two inches shorter and is nowhere near the shooter that he was. Redick was a career 91+% free throw shooter in college compared to Sheppard's 83+%. I don't know that he's the type of scorer that Redick is either. JJ played collegiately for four seasons and shot a lower overall percentage from three, but he was taking around twice as many shots and had a way higher usage rate, even as a freshman.

Redick played in the NBA for 15 years and has some franchise records for the Clippers and 76ers. On his podcast, someone asked him if he could play in the NBA right now and how many he could get (he retired in 2021). He answered with something to the effect of "my body is too old and injured to give you a full season, but if you gave me two weeks to get in shape I could get you 15 points in 25 minutes in a week night game [but I'd give up 18]". He wasn't saying it braggingly, and I truly believe he could get you 15+ in that situation.

Not all negative because I think Reed has better PG skills, will have a higher assist to turnover ratio, and is a better leaper (which can offset Redick's height advantage on blocks, rebounds, and even steals), but I don't know that either will ever be a substantially better defender than the other, especially with the NBA's spacing.

If Sheppard is able to get into the 205-215 lb. range while still enhancing his quickness, he's probably a much better on-ball defender, but right now, I see him as a negative on-ball defender who is a plus help defender at the college level.

Specialists can have extremely long and successful professional careers. I'm also a bit of a sucker for players who do one thing REALLY well. I once thought that Jahlil Okafor was going to be as good or better than Karl Anthony Towns if he found himself in the right situation due to his high percentages at the rim and most teams having moved away from traditional bigs that could guard him. Lesson learned there.

Still, I think any franchise in this year's draft takes Redick's 15 years as a solid role player that can start on a playoff team and doesn't look back.

I hope that Sheppard is great, but I think he'll have to improve on a lot of things both offensively and defensively, plus everything else (like fit with the franchise
that picks him) would have to break extremely well for him to retire with that type of career.

[Old School Hound]

When Sheppard declares for the draft, BBN will turn on him and call him a mercenary with no loyalty to the name on the jersey.

[Spud6]

When Sheppard declares for the draft, BBN will turn on him and call him a mercenary with no loyalty to the name on the jersey.

Zero chance of that happening

[pjdoug]

Lottery pick you gotta go to the NBA.

He will never be higher than that position no matter how well he plays. 6'3 guards with excellent skills and basketball IQ but okay athleticism are always going to be available. Good help/team defender but will really struggle to defend that type of athleticism and physicality in space at the NBA.

2024 is seen as a weaker draft class. If it's there, you have to push all your chips into the middle of the table or you need to be ready to possibly have to live with having missed your chance later on.

Who plays defense in the NBA?

[pjdoug]

I haven't watched the NBA in years Remind me again ,  who plays great defense in that league?

Most barely attempt to play defense..

[pjdoug]

I haven't watched the NBA in years Remind me again ,  who plays great defense in that league?

The Celtics get after it defensively. Minnesota grades really well in the metrics and usually looks the part (but they have had a favorable slate to do it against). You can see five guys on a string if you ever catch either of them on. Wolves are actually playing at a historical adjusted defensive pace right now-- Gobert and Towns are 7'0+, McDaniels is 6'9, and Edwards is a 6'4 athletic freak, so they can make it a long night with all that length funneling everything to the rim. 

Heat usually scheme well and have line-ups that can give the opposition fits. Milwaukee also has a lot of size, length, and athleticism that can shut you down for stretches... they've been horrible so far this season but are starting to play better. Clippers have some good individual defenders like Kawhi and Westbrook to make up for Harden.

A lot of it is just going to be match-up dependent too though.

Most people see the high scores in NBA games and forget that there's an extra two minutes per quarter (on top of their 24 second clock). With the differential in talent levels, that can mean many more points regardless of how well someone defends.

They need to get after it a lot more. They shouldn't be losing  games with the offense they have.

[pjdoug]

Can we all agree that Sheppard and Dillingham are going to struggle defensively in the NBA given what we've seen in the first half of the Kentucky-Oakland NCAA Tournament game?

First team in history to have two NBA lottery picks that let a mid-major guard come off the bench and go off like this and outscore them this badly by himself. Gohlke averages 12.2 PPG and already has 21 points with time still remaining before the half. He hasn't attempted a two, and it isn't as if Oakland is running a ton of offense through him or has some magic formula that doesn't allow us to force him into driving the ball.

But for this being a weak draft, I don't see how lots of players being projected are lottery picks right now.

NO, I don't agree with that. Reed played good defense while being coached  by a mediocre in game coach..

[Cactus Jack]

The Celtics get after it defensively. Minnesota grades really well in the metrics and usually looks the part (but they have had a favorable slate to do it against). You can see five guys on a string if you ever catch either of them on. Wolves are actually playing at a historical adjusted defensive pace right now-- Gobert and Towns are 7'0+, McDaniels is 6'9, and Edwards is a 6'4 athletic freak, so they can make it a long night with all that length funneling everything to the rim. 

Heat usually scheme well and have line-ups that can give the opposition fits. Milwaukee also has a lot of size, length, and athleticism that can shut you down for stretches... they've been horrible so far this season but are starting to play better. Clippers have some good individual defenders like Kawhi and Westbrook to make up for Harden.

A lot of it is just going to be match-up dependent too though.

Most people see the high scores in NBA games and forget that there's an extra two minutes per quarter (on top of their 24 second clock). With the differential in talent levels, that can mean many more points regardless of how well someone defends.

They need to get after it a lot more. They shouldn't be losing  games with the offense they have.

If the "getting after it" was a reference to the Celtics, they are 64-18 and are the runaway favorites to win the title in Vegas (but I'd concede that this is partly due to their conference). For comparison, the '16 Warriors were 72-9 and the '96 Bulls were 72-10.

Playoffs are always a different animal, but Boston is top 5 in the league in both advanced offensive and defensive ratings.

I wouldn't confuse them with the 2004 Pistons, but they defend well enough to win a title with the road they'll have.

[pjdoug]

The Celtics get after it defensively. Minnesota grades really well in the metrics and usually looks the part (but they have had a favorable slate to do it against). You can see five guys on a string if you ever catch either of them on. Wolves are actually playing at a historical adjusted defensive pace right now-- Gobert and Towns are 7'0+, McDaniels is 6'9, and Edwards is a 6'4 athletic freak, so they can make it a long night with all that length funneling everything to the rim. 

Heat usually scheme well and have line-ups that can give the opposition fits. Milwaukee also has a lot of size, length, and athleticism that can shut you down for stretches... they've been horrible so far this season but are starting to play better. Clippers have some good individual defenders like Kawhi and Westbrook to make up for Harden.

A lot of it is just going to be match-up dependent too though.

Most people see the high scores in NBA games and forget that there's an extra two minutes per quarter (on top of their 24 second clock). With the differential in talent levels, that can mean many more points regardless of how well someone defends.

They need to get after it a lot more. They shouldn't be losing  games with the offense they have.

If the "getting after it" was a reference to the Celtics, they are 64-18 and are the runaway favorites to win the title in Vegas (but I'd concede that this is partly due to their conference). For comparison, the '16 Warriors were 72-9 and the '96 Bulls were 72-10.

Playoffs are always a different animal, but Boston is top 5 in the league in both advanced offensive and defensive ratings.

I wouldn't confuse them with the 2004 Pistons, but they defend well enough to win a title with the road they'll have.

I've been a Celtics fan since I was a little kid. They rarely hold a team under 100 points. That's the type of defense being played in the NBA today. Didn't this year's All-Star game have almost 400 points scored in it?

[Cactus Jack]

NO, I don't agree with that. Reed played good defense while being coached  by a mediocre in game coach..

Not arguing at all about Cal's in-game coaching ability. He has moments, like at Kansas in 2022, when he devises a good defensive strategy that reminds you that he may not always get credit for how well he can coach (probably due at least in part to being overshadowed by how well he recruits), but I don't think he's had the same energy/hunger that he had at UMass or Memphis since the loss to Wisconsin in 2015.

I'm not saying Reed can't be a passable on-ball defender one day and I'm rooting for him just as hard as everyone else, but there's a huge difference in being a "good (on-ball) defender" and being a "good help defender" or a "good team defender".

Sweeping passing lanes and digging out a steal or two while giving help & blocking a couple of shots can be a Fool's Gold in a stat line if someone is having lapses where they are out of position or opponents are able to physically bully them when they need rebounds and baskets. We can probably all agree that there were some huge errors in very high leverage, late game situations-- blown assignments, laying too far off of a shooter and giving up a three and fouling three point shooters when the opponent was down late immediately jump to mind.

I also don't know of a game this past season where he had a high level defensive assignment and I left thinking "wow, Sheppard's defense just completely took him out of the game".

I know it's two different levels, but I really can't understand how lots of Kentuckians will say that Sheppard is a great defender but also argue that no one plays defense in the NBA. It's to the point that it makes me wonder if I'm even watching the same sport. NBA players are just more talented and run better sets in greater space.

Plenty of "great defenders" that are praised in college can't excel in the pros. Take Michael Kidd-Gilchrist-- praised for his defense and motor at Kentucky but wasn't an elite defender in the NBA. Nerlens Noel and Willie Cauley-Stein combined for some conference and national Defensive PoY awards but never made an NBA All-Defensive team.

[Cactus Jack]

Per ESPN, KSR, and numerous other outlets, Sheppard has declared for the Draft and is going to forgo his remaining eligibility.