[jetpilot]

OK so...so far we have devolved into Cal could lose forever and we should be happy and give our kids a hug.
For those of us who want to win and know basketball and everything else isn't random or luck over time, tomorrow starts the real deal and we are hoping to get to the Final 4 where we have as good a shot as anybody to win it all.

I've probably got all I'm willing to lose on UK -13 vs Oakland. But what spreads look lucrative to you? I'm confident CJ will give valuable analysis. Come on out Van you are the calming influence and voice of reason on here.

[Old School Hound]

1-800- GAMBLER

[jetpilot]

I'll post mine for tomorrow in the morning. Several great games tomorrow. I'm not looking up where the games are played which is huge, because I don't want to take the time because I probably won't bet any of them. But a great day of basketball tomorrow, as well as Friday/Saturday/Sunday. College basketball has many faults like everything else, but don't let anybody tell you this tournament isn't awesome. Only people making excuses for losing do that.

[jetpilot]

1-800- GAMBLER

1-800-DUMBASS

[jetpilot]

i got a $50 Wild Wings card for Christmas. Thursdays are BOGO wings at Wild Wings. Mississippi State and Michigan State play at 12:15. How can I be expected to work past 12 tomorrow and not have a bucket of beer and 40 wings which will take me a week of free lunches to eat...for free! Not betting either team BTW, both too erratic. Mississippi St. thumping UT was impressive though and pulling for the SEC team obviously...

[Van Hagar]

You know, I gambled some a long time ago and found I liked it a little too much, so I forced myself to give it up, because eventually you’ll get hung out to dry. But……..since sports gambling has been made legal in Ky, and all these sports books have made all these free money offers, I’ve had to take them up on it recently. I actually have joined four sites, my own investment has been only $45, and I wound up with nearly $500 in bonus bets. And that’s all I’m gonna use, after March Madness is over I’m gonna cash out and never go back. Right now I’m up about $300 from their free offers.

So anyway, after that soul-cleansing story, in the first round I like UK at the -13.5 obviously. I also like New Mexico on the money line vs. Clemson. I like Florida just laying one against Colorado. And I actually like Western at +14.5 vs. Marquette, that just seems like quite a bit too much. And when these are all wrong, forget where you read them.

[Old School Hound]

You know, I gambled some a long time ago and found I liked it a little too much, so I forced myself to give it up, because eventually you’ll get hung out to dry. But……..since sports gambling has been made legal in Ky, and all these sports books have made all these free money offers, I’ve had to take them up on it recently. I actually have joined four sites, my own investment has been only $45, and I wound up with nearly $500 in bonus bets. And that’s all I’m gonna use, after March Madness is over I’m gonna cash out and never go back. Right now I’m up about $300 from their free offers.

So anyway, after that soul-cleansing story, in the first round I like UK at the -13.5 obviously. I also like New Mexico on the money line vs. Clemson. I like Florida just laying one against Colorado. And I actually like Western at +14.5 vs. Marquette, that just seems like quite a bit too much. And when these are all wrong, forget where you read them.

 Van, either you or Jet let me know how to set up an account and how to get those free money offers. Do you get the free money bets after placing so many non-free bets?  I've never bet in my life. Don't smoke, drink, do crack or meth ,gamble , or screw lewd women. Might as well pick up a vice or two while I'm still able. Be very careful betting UK. I love our boys but they can break your heart and your bank account.

---

Most pastors view sports betting as "morally wrong."


"Despite its legalization in many states, most Evangelical pastors in the U.S. are opposed to sports betting, viewing the practice as “morally wrong,” according to a study by Lifeway Research released ahead of the Super Bowl.

The survey, comprised of 1,004 Protestant pastors and conducted Aug. 29–Sep. 20, 2023, found that a mere 13% of pastors support the nationwide legalization of sports betting, while a substantial majority, 55%, consider the practice morally objectionable.
...
In a 2020 op-ed for The Christian Post, Pastor Mark Creech contended that gambling offers a form of worship centered around the deity of "Lady Luck," replacing trust in God with a devotion to money and covetousness, which is equated to idolatry.

Creech warned of the significant social costs of gambling, including its potential to enslave individuals both psychologically and financially, drawing resources away from more productive economic activities and fostering a culture that diminishes faith in God.

“What kind of religion takes more from its adherents than it gives? — a counterfeit religion — a devilish one — a misguided faith,” he wrote. “Don’t be deceived. Gambling serves as an evil substitute for true religion.”

Read more below.
https://www.christianpost.com/news/most-...wrong.html

[jetpilot]

Gambling is a social ill, no question.

Two rules: 1a. Never bet more than you can live with losing. That's even stricter than the experts who tell you not to bet more than you can "afford" to lose. 1b. Take winnings off the table and play with house money if and whenever you get the chance.
2. If you ever feel like you need to place a bet just to have some "action" going, quit immediately and never look back.

Lots of great games today. Not betting on any of them except what I have on UK.

[Cactus Jack]

I do bracket pools every year. Along with my own predictions, without fail, I'll submit one "morally repugnant" bracket each year, usually into a pool with 20+ people.

Kentucky goes out in the opener.

I've talked about how Purdue and Tennessee are chokers all season? They meet in the Elite Eight.

Duke and BYU have insufferable fans? Send them an extra round deeper than they're predicted to go.

Illinois' best player has some serious legal allegations pending? Elite Eight.

If I have to be miserable through this tournament and watch the bad guys win, I at least get paid to do it; every year, I'll also happily shred the bracket given the results that'd be needed to do so.

[jetpilot]

I do bracket pools every year. Along with my own predictions, without fail, I'll submit one "morally repugnant" bracket each year, usually into a pool with 20+ people.

Kentucky goes out in the opener.

I've talked about how Purdue and Tennessee are chokers all season? They meet in the Elite Eight.

Duke and BYU have insufferable fans? Send them an extra round deeper than they're predicted to go.

Illinois' best player has some serious legal allegations pending? Elite Eight.

If I have to be miserable through this tournament and watch the bad guys win, I at least get paid to do it; every year, I'll also happily shred the bracket given the results that'd be needed to do so.

Haha I do the same. Fill out a bracket with teams I don't like winning a bunch of games.

[Van Hagar]

I gave my four favorite tourney bets earlier in this thread. And all four of them lost. This, kids, is why we don’t gamble.

[Cactus Jack]

I liked Utah State coming in and thought that Purdue was overrated. Don't know what the lines are or anything, but that's a game that I'm going to have an eye on tomorrow.

Alabama and Grand Canyon could be a fun watch. I'd imagine there's a lot of public money on the over just because of the way each team plays. Same for San Diego State and Yale, but with the under.

I picked James Madison to pick Duke and/or go to the Sweet 16 in almost every bracket I made.

[Old School Hound]

I liked Utah State coming in and thought that Purdue was overrated. Don't know what the lines are or anything, but that's a game that I'm going to have an eye on tomorrow.

Alabama and Grand Canyon could be a fun watch. I'd imagine there's a lot of public money on the over just because of the way each team plays. Same for San Diego State and Yale, but with the under.

I picked James Madison to pick Duke and/or go to the Sweet 16 in almost every bracket I made.

I bet this is the first time that two Dukes have ever met in the NCAA Tournament.

[Cactus Jack]

Looks like my underdog predictions from last week were waaaaayyyyy off.

Three remaining teams don't grade out as defending nearly as well as the rest-- Alabama (101), Illinois (91), and NC State (76). Gonzaga (44) and Clemson (38) are the only others that aren't #21 or higher. 

UConn, Houston, Purdue, and Arizona are the only remaining teams who are top 15 in both Adjusted Offensive & Defensive Efficiency. Auburn was also in that group and you see how things worked out for them.


Just for funsies, I'll predict that San Diego State is able to keep it within 11.5 of UConn in a rematch of last year's final, even if it's a backdoor cover. I like Gonzaga and Creighton ATS in Friday's games (or maybe in the first half if nothing else). Even if these all crash and burn, I still won't look much worse than last week.

[jetpilot]

I got too loose (rookie mistake) with the $500 I left in my account. 3 dumb bets on SEC tournament winner and a dumb bet on Calipari in the postseason vs Oakland. But still finished up $1700+ for the season. Put $1000 in daughter's tuition account and using the rest for 2 days at Keeneland this meet which will cover room meals gas and tickets + any betting losses. No complaints, looking forward to football season.

[Cactus Jack]

I got too loose (rookie mistake) with the $500 I left in my account. 3 dumb bets on SEC tournament winner and a dumb bet on Calipari in the postseason vs Oakland. But still finished up $1700+ for the season. Put $1000 in daughter's tuition account and using the rest for 2 days at Keeneland this meet which will cover room meals gas and tickets + any betting losses. No complaints, looking forward to football season.

I don't do sports books because I've never heard of one going broke but follow lines closely because I think it can keep you informed on what to expect from games. From all I've read, futures are some of the worst plays in terms of odds and I think that most who try to play professionally stay as far away from those as possible.

I have heard of a strategy where someone takes a team that's possibly good enough to win but probably won't with fairly high futures odds (usually someone who'll end up a #1-3 seed and in the +2500 to +4000 range) right after a big regular season loss and then fades them throughout the tournament by playing the underdog moneyline and hoping they get upset early.

The guy who told me about that strategy had locked $100 on 2018 Virginia to win the NCAA at +3200 right after a loss to someone like UNC or Duke and felt good about them eventually getting the #1 overall seed. He planned to fade them beginning with game two because a #16 had never beaten a #1. That didn't work out well. In general the hope in doing that is that you put a small moneyline bet on a large underdog who ends up pulling off a huge upset. Kentucky/St. Peter's would be a good example.

That strategy also seems like an easy way to end up with a Purdue, Creighton, or Tennessee that will advance to the Final Four but can't win, in which case you've just lost most of your future and some juice along the way when they come into the Elite Eight and Final Four as underdogs or 1.5 point favorites.

[jetpilot]

I got too loose (rookie mistake) with the $500 I left in my account. 3 dumb bets on SEC tournament winner and a dumb bet on Calipari in the postseason vs Oakland. But still finished up $1700+ for the season. Put $1000 in daughter's tuition account and using the rest for 2 days at Keeneland this meet which will cover room meals gas and tickets + any betting losses. No complaints, looking forward to football season.

I don't do sports books because I've never heard of one going broke but follow lines closely because I think it can keep you informed on what to expect from games. From all I've read, futures are some of the worst plays in terms of odds and I think that most who try to play professionally stay as far away from those as possible.

I have heard of a strategy where someone takes a team that's possibly good enough to win but probably won't with fairly high futures odds (usually someone who'll end up a #1-3 seed and in the +2500 to +4000 range) right after a big regular season loss and then fades them throughout the tournament by playing the underdog moneyline and hoping they get upset early.

The guy who told me about that strategy had locked $100 on 2018 Virginia to win the NCAA at +3200 right after a loss to someone like UNC or Duke and felt good about them eventually getting the #1 overall seed. He planned to fade them beginning with game two because a #16 had never beaten a #1. That didn't work out well. In general the hope in doing that is that you put a small moneyline bet on a large underdog who ends up pulling off a huge upset. Kentucky/St. Peter's would be a good example.

That strategy also seems like an easy way to end up with a Purdue, Creighton, or Tennessee that will advance to the Final Four but can't win, in which case you've just lost most of your future and some juice along the way when they come into the Elite Eight and Final Four as underdogs or 1.5 point favorites.

That's because every a$$hole with $100 in a checking account is betting 20 games a week. 1 person, especially an old(er) person, can absolutely win money betting picking his spots. I agree, futures and parlays are for suckers.

Edit: I also have two local bookies who are friends. They never fail to pay and also never lose in any 365 day period. Simple math. I only use the online books for the bonuses.

[Cactus Jack]

I got too loose (rookie mistake) with the $500 I left in my account. 3 dumb bets on SEC tournament winner and a dumb bet on Calipari in the postseason vs Oakland. But still finished up $1700+ for the season. Put $1000 in daughter's tuition account and using the rest for 2 days at Keeneland this meet which will cover room meals gas and tickets + any betting losses. No complaints, looking forward to football season.

I don't do sports books because I've never heard of one going broke but follow lines closely because I think it can keep you informed on what to expect from games. From all I've read, futures are some of the worst plays in terms of odds and I think that most who try to play professionally stay as far away from those as possible.

I have heard of a strategy where someone takes a team that's possibly good enough to win but probably won't with fairly high futures odds (usually someone who'll end up a #1-3 seed and in the +2500 to +4000 range) right after a big regular season loss and then fades them throughout the tournament by playing the underdog moneyline and hoping they get upset early.

The guy who told me about that strategy had locked $100 on 2018 Virginia to win the NCAA at +3200 right after a loss to someone like UNC or Duke and felt good about them eventually getting the #1 overall seed. He planned to fade them beginning with game two because a #16 had never beaten a #1. That didn't work out well. In general the hope in doing that is that you put a small moneyline bet on a large underdog who ends up pulling off a huge upset. Kentucky/St. Peter's would be a good example.

That strategy also seems like an easy way to end up with a Purdue, Creighton, or Tennessee that will advance to the Final Four but can't win, in which case you've just lost most of your future and some juice along the way when they come into the Elite Eight and Final Four as underdogs or 1.5 point favorites.

That's because every a$$hole with $100 in a checking account is betting 20 games a week. 1 person, especially an old(er) person, can absolutely win money betting picking his spots. I agree, futures and parlays are for suckers.

Edit: I also have two local bookies who are friends. They never fail to pay and also never lose in any 365 day period. Simple math. I only use the online books for the bonuses.

Picking spots and the hit and run strategy seems like it could work in the short term if you are lucky, but my understanding was that most places, even those that are fully legal, will literally shut down your account due to "inactivity". If you are up, you'll probably get most of what you are ahead (maybe minus some transaction fees), but from what I've heard Vegas is really the only place that wouldn't shut down the average person who wants to place under 10 bets a year, especially if those are large successful bets.

[jetpilot]

Not betting but would have lost $100 on Arizona on a dislike bet and would have been glad to get them out of the tournament.

Would be winning on UConn, probably the best bet of the tournament so far. Either bet on them the rest of the way or at least don't bet against them.

Another (fake) dislike bet in the late games. UNC -4 1/2. Hope I lose and would normally back it up with a money line bet. So I could lose the spread and my money and UNC could still win. Double turds lol. But I think Alabama peaked weeks ago and UNC wins comfortably. Please god make me wrong.

[jetpilot]

I got too loose (rookie mistake) with the $500 I left in my account. 3 dumb bets on SEC tournament winner and a dumb bet on Calipari in the postseason vs Oakland. But still finished up $1700+ for the season. Put $1000 in daughter's tuition account and using the rest for 2 days at Keeneland this meet which will cover room meals gas and tickets + any betting losses. No complaints, looking forward to football season.

I don't do sports books because I've never heard of one going broke but follow lines closely because I think it can keep you informed on what to expect from games. From all I've read, futures are some of the worst plays in terms of odds and I think that most who try to play professionally stay as far away from those as possible.

I have heard of a strategy where someone takes a team that's possibly good enough to win but probably won't with fairly high futures odds (usually someone who'll end up a #1-3 seed and in the +2500 to +4000 range) right after a big regular season loss and then fades them throughout the tournament by playing the underdog moneyline and hoping they get upset early.

The guy who told me about that strategy had locked $100 on 2018 Virginia to win the NCAA at +3200 right after a loss to someone like UNC or Duke and felt good about them eventually getting the #1 overall seed. He planned to fade them beginning with game two because a #16 had never beaten a #1. That didn't work out well. In general the hope in doing that is that you put a small moneyline bet on a large underdog who ends up pulling off a huge upset. Kentucky/St. Peter's would be a good example.

That strategy also seems like an easy way to end up with a Purdue, Creighton, or Tennessee that will advance to the Final Four but can't win, in which case you've just lost most of your future and some juice along the way when they come into the Elite Eight and Final Four as underdogs or 1.5 point favorites.

That's because every a$$hole with $100 in a checking account is betting 20 games a week. 1 person, especially an old(er) person, can absolutely win money betting picking his spots. I agree, futures and parlays are for suckers.

Edit: I also have two local bookies who are friends. They never fail to pay and also never lose in any 365 day period. Simple math. I only use the online books for the bonuses.

Picking spots and the hit and run strategy seems like it could work in the short term if you are lucky, but my understanding was that most places, even those that are fully legal, will literally shut down your account due to "inactivity". If you are up, you'll probably get most of what you are ahead (maybe minus some transaction fees), but from what I've heard Vegas is really the only place that wouldn't shut down the average person who wants to place under 10 bets a year, especially if those are large successful bets.

Dang it CJ many people win money in the long term gambling even though most lose, and it's not hit and run and it's not luck
after doing it for years. 

And Las Vegas doesn't shut you down if you win, they give you free flights and a suite.

[jetpilot]

And do you think my little account out of millions that came out ahead $1700 over 6 months even gets on their radar, much less causes a board meeting where they vote me out? LOL. Gambling is everywhere now, everyone wants your business. Hence the big bonuses. Under no circumstances will little ol' me betting $100-300 a week for a few months a year ever be banned from the gambling industry lol...in fact I'll probably get a big signup bonus for 2024 football somewhere.

[Cactus Jack]

Dang it CJ many people win money in the long term gambling even though most lose, and it's not hit and run and it's not luck
after doing it for years. 

And Las Vegas doesn't shut you down if you win, they give you free flights and a suite.

Oh I'm sure Vegas wants to keep as many people there for as long as they can keep them.

I wasn't meaning that Vegas would ever stop taking action from anyone (other than maybe a dozen or so people).

I was meaning that I didn't think an online sportsbook or whatever else someone may have going on would actually keep taking the action of someone who only bets five or six times a year and hits them for a few hundred at a time. I may be completely off base in thinking that though.

[jetpilot]

Dang it CJ many people win money in the long term gambling even though most lose, and it's not hit and run and it's not luck
after doing it for years. 

And Las Vegas doesn't shut you down if you win, they give you free flights and a suite.

Oh I'm sure Vegas wants to keep as many people there for as long as they can keep them.

I wasn't meaning that Vegas would ever stop taking action from anyone (other than maybe a dozen or so people).

I was meaning that I didn't think an online sportsbook or whatever else someone may have going on would actually keep taking the action of someone who only bets five or six times a year and hits them for a few hundred at a time. I may be completely off base in thinking that though.

Well they haven't done it to me and there are a zillion fish in the sea if they ever do. I'm probably done with my account that went to zero anyway and will be looking for the best bonuses in August when football starts.