Thread Rating:
03-15-2024, 11:46 PM
Some games/results to watch. Plenty of these have significant implications for UK's seeding:
#7 Iowa State vs. #14 Baylor--
Winner gets Houston in tomorrow's final. Iowa State leads 31-24 with around 2:15 remaining in the first half.
#10 Marquette vs. Providence--
The Golden Eagles lead 67-61 with 5:38 remaining. I'm guessing the Cats wouldn't mind seeing Marquette go down here, especially given that they are in a "similar-enough" geographic region given some of the NCAA tournament's sites and the team's similar standing. This one could be huge, as the winner gets UConn tomorrow (who Marquette could lose to but not drop very far after).
#19 Alabama vs. Florida--
Florida leads 40-31 with 2:38 remaining in the first half. Alabama is one of Kentucky's better wins; a Florida-Texas A&M final has two teams that have beaten Kentucky and one will get a continued boost. Every SEC Tournament game will impact Kentucky's seeding, especially in a conference that will have a handful of bids for similarly ranked teams (but must keep them apart for a certain number of rounds).
Arizona was just upset by Oregon. 'Zona was going to be one of the top #2 seeds (and still may be) & their geographic location makes them a better fit for the West if there's any type of preference in seeding. I think they hang on to a #2 with Tennessee and Creighton's losses, but they'll need to keep an eye on Marquette and Iowa State.
#7 Iowa State vs. #14 Baylor--
Winner gets Houston in tomorrow's final. Iowa State leads 31-24 with around 2:15 remaining in the first half.
#10 Marquette vs. Providence--
The Golden Eagles lead 67-61 with 5:38 remaining. I'm guessing the Cats wouldn't mind seeing Marquette go down here, especially given that they are in a "similar-enough" geographic region given some of the NCAA tournament's sites and the team's similar standing. This one could be huge, as the winner gets UConn tomorrow (who Marquette could lose to but not drop very far after).
#19 Alabama vs. Florida--
Florida leads 40-31 with 2:38 remaining in the first half. Alabama is one of Kentucky's better wins; a Florida-Texas A&M final has two teams that have beaten Kentucky and one will get a continued boost. Every SEC Tournament game will impact Kentucky's seeding, especially in a conference that will have a handful of bids for similarly ranked teams (but must keep them apart for a certain number of rounds).
Arizona was just upset by Oregon. 'Zona was going to be one of the top #2 seeds (and still may be) & their geographic location makes them a better fit for the West if there's any type of preference in seeding. I think they hang on to a #2 with Tennessee and Creighton's losses, but they'll need to keep an eye on Marquette and Iowa State.
03-16-2024, 01:31 AM
Regions:
South (Dallas), East (Boston), Midwest (Detroit), West (Los Angeles)
Locks:
1 Seeds:
1- Houston
2 - UConn
3 - Purdue
4 - ??? (North Carolina)
Houston, UConn, and Purdue are going to be #1 seeds regardless of what happens going forward. How well they play in their conference final will determine their order and geographic regions.
It makes most sense that Houston goes to the South (Dallas), UConn goes to the East (Boston), and Purdue goes to the Midwest (Detroit). That would lead the final #1 seed in the West (Los Angeles).
With Arizona, Creighton, AND Tennessee going down, North Carolina has the inside track on the final #1. I don't know that there's a scenario where any of the three losers jump from a #2 to #1. Maybe convincing wins by Iowa State against #1 Houston or Marquette against #2 UConn get them in the discussion, but those would be pretty big jumps and I think it's the Heels' so long as they don't take an ugly loss to NC State.
2 Seeds:
1 - Arizona
2 - Tennessee
3 - Marquette
4 - Iowa State
I'm fairly confident that these are the teams you'll see on this line, the only question is their ranking and the regions they'll be assigned to. If North Carolina were to drop to a #2, then one of the above teams would move onto the #1 line, but it seems that EVERYONE is backing into high seeds now. The Cyclones and Marquette's paths are covered above.
3, 4 and 5 Seeds:
1 - Duke
2 - Creighton
3 - Auburn
4 - Illinois
5 - Kentucky
6 - Baylor
7 - Kansas
8 - San Diego St.
9 - Alabama
10 - Florida
11 - St. Mary's
12 - BYU
13 - Wisconsin
14 - Texas Tech
15 - Washington St.
16 - Utah St.
Teams left playing are obviously the biggest variables.
Duke is locked into a mid-3 at worst. Creighton lost yesterday and began today projected as a 3. Like Duke, today's chaos probably did nothing to hurt them after their loss to Providence yesterday closed the door on a two.
Auburn has a lot to gain, but is most likely a #3. Kentucky is probably a #4 seed but the logistics of geography and keeping the SEC away from each other will factor in and maybe pushing them to a low-3 or high-5. Florida began today as a #7, but their blowout of Alabama will boost them, and I could see them going as far as a high-4 if they can win the conference. South Carolina will be rooting for Auburn, and today's blowout probably locked them in at as a #6, but no better than a #5.
Illinois can help themselves out, especially if they beat Purdue in the Big Ten championship; still, I don't think they'll get to the 2-line because of some bad losses that could sink them to a low-3 or mid-4 with an ugly loss to Nebraska or Indiana in their semi. Wisconsin began a #6, but could moves up to the high-5 line with a win against Purdue and in the Big 10 championship.
Kansas has two blowout losses that are fresh on everyone's mind, but they were short-handed in those, so we'll see how they're graded. I don't see them dropping past a low-5. They're a traditional power who'll bring fans and draw ratings, and the committee can do some different things with them and use the injury angle to justify the decision.
BYU and San Diego State intrigue me. They started the day as solid #5 seeds, and San Diego State just knocked off a ranked Utah State team who'd started the day on the #7 line and should be favored in their final.
Washington State began the day on the #5 line, but may be in play for a low-4 if they're able to win their semi and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 final. They currently trail Colorado, and I doubt their 5 gets any better if this result holds.
St. Mary's began today as a 6. We probably won't have a great idea where they end up until at least mid-day tomorrow, as they're going to be rooting against teams like Florida, Washington State, and San Diego State.
I'd group all of the teams mentioned in the three paragraphs above together when evaluating them, as most are in the far West, which will likely come into play for seeding/geographic preferences and podsites.
South (Dallas), East (Boston), Midwest (Detroit), West (Los Angeles)
Locks:
1 Seeds:
1- Houston
2 - UConn
3 - Purdue
4 - ??? (North Carolina)
Houston, UConn, and Purdue are going to be #1 seeds regardless of what happens going forward. How well they play in their conference final will determine their order and geographic regions.
It makes most sense that Houston goes to the South (Dallas), UConn goes to the East (Boston), and Purdue goes to the Midwest (Detroit). That would lead the final #1 seed in the West (Los Angeles).
With Arizona, Creighton, AND Tennessee going down, North Carolina has the inside track on the final #1. I don't know that there's a scenario where any of the three losers jump from a #2 to #1. Maybe convincing wins by Iowa State against #1 Houston or Marquette against #2 UConn get them in the discussion, but those would be pretty big jumps and I think it's the Heels' so long as they don't take an ugly loss to NC State.
2 Seeds:
1 - Arizona
2 - Tennessee
3 - Marquette
4 - Iowa State
I'm fairly confident that these are the teams you'll see on this line, the only question is their ranking and the regions they'll be assigned to. If North Carolina were to drop to a #2, then one of the above teams would move onto the #1 line, but it seems that EVERYONE is backing into high seeds now. The Cyclones and Marquette's paths are covered above.
3, 4 and 5 Seeds:
1 - Duke
2 - Creighton
3 - Auburn
4 - Illinois
5 - Kentucky
6 - Baylor
7 - Kansas
8 - San Diego St.
9 - Alabama
10 - Florida
11 - St. Mary's
12 - BYU
13 - Wisconsin
14 - Texas Tech
15 - Washington St.
16 - Utah St.
Teams left playing are obviously the biggest variables.
Duke is locked into a mid-3 at worst. Creighton lost yesterday and began today projected as a 3. Like Duke, today's chaos probably did nothing to hurt them after their loss to Providence yesterday closed the door on a two.
Auburn has a lot to gain, but is most likely a #3. Kentucky is probably a #4 seed but the logistics of geography and keeping the SEC away from each other will factor in and maybe pushing them to a low-3 or high-5. Florida began today as a #7, but their blowout of Alabama will boost them, and I could see them going as far as a high-4 if they can win the conference. South Carolina will be rooting for Auburn, and today's blowout probably locked them in at as a #6, but no better than a #5.
Illinois can help themselves out, especially if they beat Purdue in the Big Ten championship; still, I don't think they'll get to the 2-line because of some bad losses that could sink them to a low-3 or mid-4 with an ugly loss to Nebraska or Indiana in their semi. Wisconsin began a #6, but could moves up to the high-5 line with a win against Purdue and in the Big 10 championship.
Kansas has two blowout losses that are fresh on everyone's mind, but they were short-handed in those, so we'll see how they're graded. I don't see them dropping past a low-5. They're a traditional power who'll bring fans and draw ratings, and the committee can do some different things with them and use the injury angle to justify the decision.
BYU and San Diego State intrigue me. They started the day as solid #5 seeds, and San Diego State just knocked off a ranked Utah State team who'd started the day on the #7 line and should be favored in their final.
Washington State began the day on the #5 line, but may be in play for a low-4 if they're able to win their semi and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 final. They currently trail Colorado, and I doubt their 5 gets any better if this result holds.
St. Mary's began today as a 6. We probably won't have a great idea where they end up until at least mid-day tomorrow, as they're going to be rooting against teams like Florida, Washington State, and San Diego State.
I'd group all of the teams mentioned in the three paragraphs above together when evaluating them, as most are in the far West, which will likely come into play for seeding/geographic preferences and podsites.
03-16-2024, 04:53 AM
Lundardi has updated his Bracketology based on the results of last night's games.
Regions (listed in the following format/order):
Midwest
West
South
East
1's -
Purdue (Midwest)
North Carolina (West)
Houston (South)
UConn (East)
2's -
Tennessee
Arizona
Marquette
Iowa St.
3's -
Creighton
Baylor
Illinois
Kentucky
4's -
Kansas
Alabama
Auburn
Duke
5's -
South Carolina
BYU
San Diego St.
Wisconsin
6's -
Texas Tech
St. Mary's
Florida
Washington St.
Lunardi's movement on Duke doesn't have the best logical flow. They were higher yesterday (#3 seed, #12 overall) and inactive today during upsets or bad losses to teams just ahead of them (#9 Kentucky and #11 Baylor, respectively). None of the teams immediately behind them outside of Auburn (who didn't move past them anyway) or Illinois (who was favored) even won. Plus the North Carolina State team who'd just upset them won again. Regardless, it looks like he's made Kentucky his lowest #3 seed and the Dukies his highest #4.
Even if I was a bit too harsh on Kentucky initially, I still think they end up as a #4 (with Auburn likely being one of the teams to pass them). To lock in a #3, we'd probably need Illinois to lose to Nebraska or get beat soundly by Purdue and/or for Auburn to lose (preferably as a -7.5 favorite against MSU).
Regions (listed in the following format/order):
Midwest
West
South
East
1's -
Purdue (Midwest)
North Carolina (West)
Houston (South)
UConn (East)
2's -
Tennessee
Arizona
Marquette
Iowa St.
3's -
Creighton
Baylor
Illinois
Kentucky
4's -
Kansas
Alabama
Auburn
Duke
5's -
South Carolina
BYU
San Diego St.
Wisconsin
6's -
Texas Tech
St. Mary's
Florida
Washington St.
Lunardi's movement on Duke doesn't have the best logical flow. They were higher yesterday (#3 seed, #12 overall) and inactive today during upsets or bad losses to teams just ahead of them (#9 Kentucky and #11 Baylor, respectively). None of the teams immediately behind them outside of Auburn (who didn't move past them anyway) or Illinois (who was favored) even won. Plus the North Carolina State team who'd just upset them won again. Regardless, it looks like he's made Kentucky his lowest #3 seed and the Dukies his highest #4.
Even if I was a bit too harsh on Kentucky initially, I still think they end up as a #4 (with Auburn likely being one of the teams to pass them). To lock in a #3, we'd probably need Illinois to lose to Nebraska or get beat soundly by Purdue and/or for Auburn to lose (preferably as a -7.5 favorite against MSU).
03-16-2024, 10:23 AM
The fact we are still a 3 is crazy fortunate but I guarantee they keeping us this high cause they want that Morehead State vs. Kentucky matchup
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03-16-2024, 11:55 AM
(03-16-2024, 01:31 AM)Cactus Jack Wrote: Regions:No way will Florida be a 4, imo. 5 is their ceiling. Championship game(if they make it) won't factor.
South (Dallas), East (Boston), Midwest (Detroit), West (Los Angeles)
Locks:
1 Seeds:
1- Houston
2 - UConn
3 - Purdue
4 - ??? (North Carolina)
Houston, UConn, and Purdue are going to be #1 seeds regardless of what happens going forward. How well they play in their conference final will determine their order and geographic regions.
It makes most sense that Houston goes to the South (Dallas), UConn goes to the East (Boston), and Purdue goes to the Midwest (Detroit). That would lead the final #1 seed in the West (Los Angeles).
With Arizona, Creighton, AND Tennessee going down, North Carolina has the inside track on the final #1. I don't know that there's a scenario where any of the three losers jump from a #2 to #1. Maybe convincing wins by Iowa State against #1 Houston or Marquette against #2 UConn get them in the discussion, but those would be pretty big jumps and I think it's the Heels' so long as they don't take an ugly loss to NC State.
2 Seeds:
1 - Arizona
2 - Tennessee
3 - Marquette
4 - Iowa State
I'm fairly confident that these are the teams you'll see on this line, the only question is their ranking and the regions they'll be assigned to. If North Carolina were to drop to a #2, then one of the above teams would move onto the #1 line, but it seems that EVERYONE is backing into high seeds now. The Cyclones and Marquette's paths are covered above.
3, 4 and 5 Seeds:
1 - Duke
2 - Creighton
3 - Auburn
4 - Illinois
5 - Kentucky
6 - Baylor
7 - Kansas
8 - San Diego St.
9 - Alabama
10 - Florida
11 - St. Mary's
12 - BYU
13 - Wisconsin
14 - Texas Tech
15 - Washington St.
16 - Utah St.
Teams left playing are obviously the biggest variables.
Duke is locked into a mid-3 at worst. Creighton lost yesterday and began today projected as a 3. Like Duke, today's chaos probably did nothing to hurt them after their loss to Providence yesterday closed the door on a two.
Auburn has a lot to gain, but is most likely a #3. Kentucky is probably a #4 seed but the logistics of geography and keeping the SEC away from each other will factor in and maybe pushing them to a low-3 or high-5. Florida began today as a #7, but their blowout of Alabama will boost them, and I could see them going as far as a high-4 if they can win the conference. South Carolina will be rooting for Auburn, and today's blowout probably locked them in at as a #6, but no better than a #5.
Illinois can help themselves out, especially if they beat Purdue in the Big Ten championship; still, I don't think they'll get to the 2-line because of some bad losses that could sink them to a low-3 or mid-4 with an ugly loss to Nebraska or Indiana in their semi. Wisconsin began a #6, but could moves up to the high-5 line with a win against Purdue and in the Big 10 championship.
Kansas has two blowout losses that are fresh on everyone's mind, but they were short-handed in those, so we'll see how they're graded. I don't see them dropping past a low-5. They're a traditional power who'll bring fans and draw ratings, and the committee can do some different things with them and use the injury angle to justify the decision.
BYU and San Diego State intrigue me. They started the day as solid #5 seeds, and San Diego State just knocked off a ranked Utah State team who'd started the day on the #7 line and should be favored in their final.
Washington State began the day on the #5 line, but may be in play for a low-4 if they're able to win their semi and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 final. They currently trail Colorado, and I doubt their 5 gets any better if this result holds.
St. Mary's began today as a 6. We probably won't have a great idea where they end up until at least mid-day tomorrow, as they're going to be rooting against teams like Florida, Washington State, and San Diego State.
I'd group all of the teams mentioned in the three paragraphs above together when evaluating them, as most are in the far West, which will likely come into play for seeding/geographic preferences and podsites.
03-16-2024, 02:41 PM
(03-16-2024, 10:23 AM)Spud6 Wrote: The fact we are still a 3 is crazy fortunate but I guarantee they keeping us this high cause they want that Morehead State vs. Kentucky matchup
Lunardi has updated his Bracketology again since I'd posted that and he now has Kentucky on the #4 line. He also moved Duke back onto the #3 line. Mississippi State is currently ahead of Auburn, and I'd think that an upset here would help solidify Kentucky ahead of Auburn in the SEC pecking order. Wisconsin currently leads Purdue-- they're currently in the 5-6 range and you know the committee would love to pair them in the same bracket with a 4 or 3 seeded Kentucky because of all the history.
(03-16-2024, 11:55 AM)Old School Hound Wrote: No way will Florida be a 4, imo. 5 is their ceiling. Championship game(if they make it) won't factor.
True. When I'd typed a lot of that, there were still some games in progress and a handful of teams in those (San Diego State, Utah, Washington State) that were seeded just ahead of Florida. I agree though, there's no way that Florida gets to a #4 if the committee doesn't include Sunday.
03-16-2024, 04:58 PM
Auburn pulled away from Mississippi State late. This probably places them on Kentucky's seed line, if not propel them past the Cats. Right now, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn are all projected as #4 seeds, and while I think that was accurate at the time it was posted, I do wonder if the committee gives three of four #4 seeds to the same conference.
Wisconsin upset Purdue. I don't think Purdue is the third best team in the country, but I see why they're ranked where they are; still there's nothing impressive about their three losses coming into the day (Northwestern, Nebraska, and Ohio State). Wisconsin has been ranked as high as #6 overall this season, and came into today on the 5-line. I don't see them getting any higher than a high-5 (their title game is Sunday), but it this one probably moves them up in the rankings and gives UK a better chance at avoiding them.
Illinois and Nebraska play next, and a 'Husker win wouldn't hurt Kentucky. In the morning update of Bracketology, the Illini were sitting on the 3-line.
Colorado ended up beating Washington State last night and gets Oregon in the Pac-12 final, so that cut off any chance of them getting into Kentucky's range. Colorado is probably in regardless, but an Oregon win steals a bid.
Other remaining games include: Houston vs. Iowa State, UConn vs. Marquette, North Carolina vs. NC State. Save the Wolfpack, all are firmly ahead of Kentucky and I don't see any outcome that could push them behind the 'Cats.
Other games to watch: San Diego State (-1.5) vs. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic (-14.5) vs. Temple, and Florida (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M.
Bottom Line:
At best, Kentucky is looking at being the lowest 3 seed. If you're holding out hope for this, root against Illinois. Even if the Illini were to lose, the 'Cats could still end up as a 4 seed. There's a slight chance that Kentucky drops to the 5-line, but I don't know that it's really worth discussing at this point-- if this happens, the conversation will be centered on how badly we got screwed by the committee.
Wisconsin upset Purdue. I don't think Purdue is the third best team in the country, but I see why they're ranked where they are; still there's nothing impressive about their three losses coming into the day (Northwestern, Nebraska, and Ohio State). Wisconsin has been ranked as high as #6 overall this season, and came into today on the 5-line. I don't see them getting any higher than a high-5 (their title game is Sunday), but it this one probably moves them up in the rankings and gives UK a better chance at avoiding them.
Illinois and Nebraska play next, and a 'Husker win wouldn't hurt Kentucky. In the morning update of Bracketology, the Illini were sitting on the 3-line.
Colorado ended up beating Washington State last night and gets Oregon in the Pac-12 final, so that cut off any chance of them getting into Kentucky's range. Colorado is probably in regardless, but an Oregon win steals a bid.
Other remaining games include: Houston vs. Iowa State, UConn vs. Marquette, North Carolina vs. NC State. Save the Wolfpack, all are firmly ahead of Kentucky and I don't see any outcome that could push them behind the 'Cats.
Other games to watch: San Diego State (-1.5) vs. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic (-14.5) vs. Temple, and Florida (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M.
Bottom Line:
At best, Kentucky is looking at being the lowest 3 seed. If you're holding out hope for this, root against Illinois. Even if the Illini were to lose, the 'Cats could still end up as a 4 seed. There's a slight chance that Kentucky drops to the 5-line, but I don't know that it's really worth discussing at this point-- if this happens, the conversation will be centered on how badly we got screwed by the committee.
03-16-2024, 06:11 PM
Texas A&M leads Florida by 8 at the half. A loss here would kill all the momentum that they gained in yesterday's blowout of Alabama.
Nebraska is leading Illinois by 11 at the half. They're a better team than I thought they were. Very well coached. If they're able to hold on and keep it at this margin or better, it should push Kentucky ahead, especially if A&M holds on and yesterday's loss doesn't look as bad.
Nebraska is leading Illinois by 11 at the half. They're a better team than I thought they were. Very well coached. If they're able to hold on and keep it at this margin or better, it should push Kentucky ahead, especially if A&M holds on and yesterday's loss doesn't look as bad.
03-16-2024, 08:51 PM
Doesn't matter for Kentucky's seeding because Iowa State was going to be locked in ahead of them, but they are trouncing Houston right now.
Was unaware that Houston had lost their best defender to a broken foot in the Big XII Tournament. This is the third player who played a significant role for them that they've lost for the season (Tugler, Walker, and Arceneaux); Roberts also went down in last night's Texas Tech game after twisting his knee.
You never want to see an injury, but it's even tougher at this point in the season.
Marquette and UConn are locked in a back and forth battle. Purdue has already lost and Houston is on their way to an ugly one, so you'd think that the Huskies would lock up the #1 overall seed with a win against a top 10 Marquette squad.
I've seen a lot of teams playing today that I would not like to see Kentucky meet, but it's probably inevitable that we'll be seeing one as early as the Sweet 16.
Was unaware that Houston had lost their best defender to a broken foot in the Big XII Tournament. This is the third player who played a significant role for them that they've lost for the season (Tugler, Walker, and Arceneaux); Roberts also went down in last night's Texas Tech game after twisting his knee.
You never want to see an injury, but it's even tougher at this point in the season.
Marquette and UConn are locked in a back and forth battle. Purdue has already lost and Houston is on their way to an ugly one, so you'd think that the Huskies would lock up the #1 overall seed with a win against a top 10 Marquette squad.
I've seen a lot of teams playing today that I would not like to see Kentucky meet, but it's probably inevitable that we'll be seeing one as early as the Sweet 16.
03-16-2024, 09:08 PM
It would just be nice to be playing in the Sweet 16. I’ve sorta forgotten what it’s like.
03-17-2024, 03:56 AM
(03-16-2024, 09:08 PM)Van Hagar Wrote: It would just be nice to be playing in the Sweet 16. I’ve sorta forgotten what it’s like.
The level of defense that the remaining teams were playing today was on a different planet than what Kentucky can do.
Three of the four projected #1 seeds lost today. I still think North Carolina is the final #1, but Iowa State's blow out against Houston could make it a bit interesting. I'm cooling off on Houston due to the injuries and was never high on Purdue to begin with.
I don't think UConn accomplishes the rare repeat, but right now, they're the best team. Their game with Marquette (who was without one of their better players that will be back for the tournament) was close in the first half but was over by about the 7:00 mark in the 2nd half. The Huskies have a certain type that they'll be vulnerable to (see Pitino's game plan against them that held Clingan to 6 points and 5 rebounds or Marquette putting him in ball screens and letting the screener pop while he sat back in drop coverage). They aren't made to play from behind but they're so damned big and defend and rebound so well that it'll take a lot to get them in that situation. Off the top of my head, I don't have a team that jumps to mind as far as "they'd really give UConn trouble". Whoever takes them down might need some luck-- for example: someone who isn't necessarily at the top of the scouting report has a career game or the team's leading scorer exploding for over 35 points because they go unconscious shooting and can't miss.
Probably going to pick Auburn to go deep in my bracket (unless someone is injured tomorrow). Same for Iowa State. Tennessee might make a run to the Elite Eight or Final Four in spite of Rick Barnes being terrible because someone has to do it. I'll probably be much higher on Baylor than others.
Will need to do more research on some of the far West teams like Utah State, St. Mary's, Colorado State, or even BYU and will probably pick the best of that bunch to have a decent run. With the Mountain West getting so many bids and other schools in those areas getting in, someone practically has to end up close to home in Spokane, Omaha, or Salt Lake City. For the later of those, the elevation will be something to keep an eye on as well.
Could see Nebraska pulling off an upset or two because they play a style that you don't see very often and it'd have to be hard to prepare for, especially if you get them on a day and a half's notice. You don't see many teams who are setting screens for their 5 man to take threes out on the perimeter. They are the only power conference team to never win an NCAA Tournament game, but that probably ends this season.
Wisconsin and Florida Atlantic have been ranked extremely high at different points in the season and are now trending in different directions. Don't know exactly what to make of either of them other than that they could be dangerous.
Going to try to start looking at teams that no one has heard of that are capable of pulling off upsets tomorrow: Grand Canyon and James Madison will probably be the first two that I take a hard look at.
03-17-2024, 05:36 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2024, 05:40 AM by Cactus Jack.)
Lunardi released an updated Bracketology:
East (Boston):
1. UConn, 2. Iowa St., 3. Auburn, 4. Duke, 5. Florida, 6. St. Mary's,
Midwest (Detroit):
1. Purdue, 2. Tennessee, 3. Creighton, 4. Kansas, 5. South Carolina, 6. Texas Tech
West (Los Angeles):
1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona, 3. Baylor, 4. Alabama, 5. BYU, 6. San Diego St.
South (Dallas):
1 - Houston, 2. Marquette, 3. Illinois, 4. Kentucky, 5. Wisconsin, 6. Washington State, 7. Utah St., 8. Nebraska, 9. New Mexico, 10. TCU/Colorado, 11. James Madison, 12. McNeese, 13. UAB, 14. Colgate, 15. Western Kentucky, 16. Stetson
If this is how it worked out, I would take this draw in a heartbeat.
Opener would be in Spokane and we'd get a UAB team that tries to score a lot of points. Win that and play the winner of Wisconsin and McNeese. Sweet 16 would be the winner of Houston's bracket in game one and the winner of the Marquette bracket in game two.
***Also wanted to clarify my post above: I'd said that UConn has a "type" that they'd be vulnerable to, and they do. When I'd said that no one jumps to mind as a team that'd give them trouble, I was meaning that I couldn't think of an example of a really good team that immediately stood out as one who'd be a terrible match-up from a stylistic standpoint.
East (Boston):
1. UConn, 2. Iowa St., 3. Auburn, 4. Duke, 5. Florida, 6. St. Mary's,
Midwest (Detroit):
1. Purdue, 2. Tennessee, 3. Creighton, 4. Kansas, 5. South Carolina, 6. Texas Tech
West (Los Angeles):
1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona, 3. Baylor, 4. Alabama, 5. BYU, 6. San Diego St.
South (Dallas):
1 - Houston, 2. Marquette, 3. Illinois, 4. Kentucky, 5. Wisconsin, 6. Washington State, 7. Utah St., 8. Nebraska, 9. New Mexico, 10. TCU/Colorado, 11. James Madison, 12. McNeese, 13. UAB, 14. Colgate, 15. Western Kentucky, 16. Stetson
If this is how it worked out, I would take this draw in a heartbeat.
Opener would be in Spokane and we'd get a UAB team that tries to score a lot of points. Win that and play the winner of Wisconsin and McNeese. Sweet 16 would be the winner of Houston's bracket in game one and the winner of the Marquette bracket in game two.
***Also wanted to clarify my post above: I'd said that UConn has a "type" that they'd be vulnerable to, and they do. When I'd said that no one jumps to mind as a team that'd give them trouble, I was meaning that I couldn't think of an example of a really good team that immediately stood out as one who'd be a terrible match-up from a stylistic standpoint.
03-17-2024, 06:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2024, 07:19 PM by Cactus Jack.)
Lunardi had adjusted his Bracketology again after I posted that. He moved Kentucky into Purdue's region and replaced them with Alabama.
Illinois and Wisconsin are locked in a battle 30 minutes before the selection show is set to begin. That is outright ridiculous.
Selection show is on.
Initial thoughts on the East Region:
UConn has a tough road to me... could face a FAU team that's been there before and gets to return to the underdog role in the Round of 32, then Auburn in the Sweet 16 and Iowa State (that some thought would be the top #2 seed) or Illinois in the Elite Eight. Not the best road for the #1 overall seed. I don't think that I'd be happy if I were a Huskies fan.
Initial thoughts on the South Region:
No surprise with Houston at #1. Tough 8/9 game between Nebraska and Texas A&M. Mentioned James Madison as one of my sleepers (above) and that game with Wisconsin is an upset special. I like Kentucky's position as a 3 seed. Oakland has been to the big dance before. Not worried tons about North Carolina State, but a game with a top-25 Texas Tech team that defends well will be tough. The potential Kentucky-Marquette match-up in the Sweet 16 will depend on Marquette's health, even if at full strength, Marquette will try to run a lot, but that might play into Kentucky's hands, especially given our depth.
Illinois and Wisconsin are locked in a battle 30 minutes before the selection show is set to begin. That is outright ridiculous.
Selection show is on.
Initial thoughts on the East Region:
UConn has a tough road to me... could face a FAU team that's been there before and gets to return to the underdog role in the Round of 32, then Auburn in the Sweet 16 and Iowa State (that some thought would be the top #2 seed) or Illinois in the Elite Eight. Not the best road for the #1 overall seed. I don't think that I'd be happy if I were a Huskies fan.
Initial thoughts on the South Region:
No surprise with Houston at #1. Tough 8/9 game between Nebraska and Texas A&M. Mentioned James Madison as one of my sleepers (above) and that game with Wisconsin is an upset special. I like Kentucky's position as a 3 seed. Oakland has been to the big dance before. Not worried tons about North Carolina State, but a game with a top-25 Texas Tech team that defends well will be tough. The potential Kentucky-Marquette match-up in the Sweet 16 will depend on Marquette's health, even if at full strength, Marquette will try to run a lot, but that might play into Kentucky's hands, especially given our depth.
03-17-2024, 07:21 PM
Well, I’m excited again. This is, on paper, the best draw we’ve had in many, many years. The other really good teams in the South (Houston, Marquette) have serious injury issues. But we’ve also shown we can lose to basically anyone in the field.
03-17-2024, 07:27 PM
Initial Thoughts on the Midwest:
Utah State is a dangerous 8/9 match-up for Purdue. Gonzaga/McNeese will be a fun watch. Kansas-Samford is a game I'm not as excited to see as the commentators act like I should be. Creighton's pod sets up well so long as Oregon doesn't have another of those runs that they seem to come out of nowhere and pull every three or four years. Would love to see Tennessee upset by St. Peter's so their annoying fans would be quiet (until they jump back on the Barnes hype train next season). This is a very boring bracket overall.
Utah State is a dangerous 8/9 match-up for Purdue. Gonzaga/McNeese will be a fun watch. Kansas-Samford is a game I'm not as excited to see as the commentators act like I should be. Creighton's pod sets up well so long as Oregon doesn't have another of those runs that they seem to come out of nowhere and pull every three or four years. Would love to see Tennessee upset by St. Peter's so their annoying fans would be quiet (until they jump back on the Barnes hype train next season). This is a very boring bracket overall.
03-17-2024, 07:31 PM
I can be to Pittsburgh in 5 hours from my house. Very easy drive. Should be tons of Blue there. But you absolutely cannot trust a Cal coached team anymore, period. Get to the Sweet 16 and I'm very excited. UK in the Sweet 16 has as good a chance as anyone except UConn.
03-17-2024, 07:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2024, 07:33 PM by Cactus Jack.)
(03-17-2024, 07:21 PM)Van Hagar Wrote: Well, I’m excited again. This is, on paper, the best draw we’ve had in many, many years. The other really good teams in the South (Houston, Marquette) have serious injury issues. But we’ve also shown we can lose to basically anyone in the field.
The first time the committee has done us some real favors in some time. I'd be royally pissed if I were a UConn fan. I think that they've drawn up a very tough road for what is the undisputed #1 team in my mind. Auburn can play with them if the game is officiated a certain way. If they get there, Florida Atlantic is going to be dangerous because they'll play with nothing to lose and the confidence of knowing that they can make a run. If Iowa State can turn them over and shoot the ball well, they can play with UConn too-- they'll have to play their A-game and hope for some breaks, but they are capable enough.
It is going to hurt my soul to watch Duke beat Houston.
03-17-2024, 07:36 PM
(03-17-2024, 07:32 PM)Cactus Jack Wrote:Please God no.(03-17-2024, 07:21 PM)Van Hagar Wrote: Well, I’m excited again. This is, on paper, the best draw we’ve had in many, many years. The other really good teams in the South (Houston, Marquette) have serious injury issues. But we’ve also shown we can lose to basically anyone in the field.
The first time the committee has done us some real favors in some time. I'd be royally pissed if I were a UConn fan. I think that they've drawn up a very tough road for what is the undisputed #1 team in my mind. Auburn can play with them if the game is officiated a certain way. If they get there, Florida Atlantic is going to be dangerous because they'll play with nothing to lose and the confidence of knowing that they can make a run. If Iowa State can turn them over and shoot the ball well, they can play with UConn too-- they'll have to play their A-game and hope for some breaks, but they are capable enough.
It is going to hurt my soul to watch Duke beat Houston.
03-17-2024, 07:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2024, 07:40 PM by Cactus Jack.)
Initial thoughts on the West Region:
Mississippi State or Michigan State getting North Carolina in the round of 32 could be dangerous, but will be in Charlotte. I like St. Mary's and think that they're a dangerous five, but Grand Canyon will be a very tough challenge for them. These were both teams that I liked to potentially make runs, and now they're playing each other. Don't know if there'll be fewer fans who travel to a game than Alabama and Charleston in Spokane. Hope New Mexico can upset Clemson and their insufferable fans. Like Baylor at the #3 think their fans will travel well to Memphis for an extra advantage. Arizona and Baylor meeting up in the Sweet 16 could be a fun one.
Mississippi State or Michigan State getting North Carolina in the round of 32 could be dangerous, but will be in Charlotte. I like St. Mary's and think that they're a dangerous five, but Grand Canyon will be a very tough challenge for them. These were both teams that I liked to potentially make runs, and now they're playing each other. Don't know if there'll be fewer fans who travel to a game than Alabama and Charleston in Spokane. Hope New Mexico can upset Clemson and their insufferable fans. Like Baylor at the #3 think their fans will travel well to Memphis for an extra advantage. Arizona and Baylor meeting up in the Sweet 16 could be a fun one.
Speaking of New Mexico, I’m sure you know this Cactus Jack, but some may not, they are coached by Richard Pitino and one of their best players is Jamal Mashburn Jr. Flashback city. Sorta wish St. John’s had gotten in also, and at least played at the same site as UK, just for fun.
03-17-2024, 08:01 PM
ouch
Mark Story
@markcstory
·
55m
Stetson, coached by University of Pikeville alum Donnie Jones, in NCAA Tournament as ASUN champion as a No. 16 seed will face No. 1 overall seed UConn in the East Region
Mark Story
@markcstory
·
55m
Stetson, coached by University of Pikeville alum Donnie Jones, in NCAA Tournament as ASUN champion as a No. 16 seed will face No. 1 overall seed UConn in the East Region
03-17-2024, 08:05 PM
Now that I’ve had time to digest the matchups a little more, I think three SEC teams (UK, Auburn and Tennessee) will advance to the Sweet 16 and two more (Alabama and Florida) definitely could. You could even talk me into Mississippi St. or Texas A&M pulling an upset over a one seed in the round of 32. South Carolina is the only conference team I see very little chance for surviving the first weekend..
03-17-2024, 08:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2024, 08:17 PM by 16BBall Fan.)
Just going back and looking at the #1-#4 seeding for the tournament I wonder if this has ever happened before. Here it is:
In the South, Midwest, and West regions none of the first four seeds won their conference championship. The east bracket all 4 seeds won their conference championship.
To me I would rank the 4 regions this way from toughest to easiest.
#1- East
#2- South
#3- Midwest
#4- West
In the South, Midwest, and West regions none of the first four seeds won their conference championship. The east bracket all 4 seeds won their conference championship.
To me I would rank the 4 regions this way from toughest to easiest.
#1- East
#2- South
#3- Midwest
#4- West
03-19-2024, 11:03 PM
Virginia-- proof that playing lots of high leverage possessions against teams who should, in theory, be less talented, is not winning basketball in the postseason. You know that once the calendar hits March, the court starts shrinking.
03-19-2024, 11:15 PM
(03-19-2024, 11:03 PM)Cactus Jack Wrote: Virginia-- proof that playing lots of high leverage possessions against teams who should, in theory, be less talented, is not winning basketball in the postseason. You know that once the calendar hits March, the court starts shrinking.
This might be the worst basketball game in the history of basketball games. It's surreal.
03-20-2024, 09:19 AM
I quit watching about half way through the first quarter. It was a snooze fest with zero interesting things about it for either team.
If you need any assistance or want to report a problem feel free to PM me and we will get it taken care of! Thank you for choosing to be apart of the BGR community!
#BBFL
03-20-2024, 09:25 AM
03-20-2024, 09:32 AM
(03-20-2024, 09:25 AM)Old School Hound Wrote:(03-20-2024, 09:19 AM)Spud6 Wrote: I quit watching about half way through the first quarter. It was a snooze fest with zero interesting things about it for either team.
Who won?
Don't even know. Don't even care, they both stink.
If you need any assistance or want to report a problem feel free to PM me and we will get it taken care of! Thank you for choosing to be apart of the BGR community!
#BBFL
03-20-2024, 10:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2024, 11:07 AM by Old School Hound.)
(03-20-2024, 09:32 AM)Spud6 Wrote:(03-20-2024, 09:25 AM)Old School Hound Wrote:(03-20-2024, 09:19 AM)Spud6 Wrote: I quit watching about half way through the first quarter. It was a snooze fest with zero interesting things about it for either team.
Who won?
Don't even know. Don't even care, they both stink.
Apparently I'm with you because I don't even know who played. lol
(03-19-2024, 11:15 PM)jetpilot Wrote:(03-19-2024, 11:03 PM)Cactus Jack Wrote: Virginia-- proof that playing lots of high leverage possessions against teams who should, in theory, be less talented, is not winning basketball in the postseason. You know that once the calendar hits March, the court starts shrinking.
This might be the worst basketball game in the history of basketball games. It's surreal.
"Tony Bennett has gone from riches to rags." --- Old School Hound
03-20-2024, 12:02 PM
Colorado State beat Virginia 67-42. It was 27-14 at halftime.
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