[Van Hagar]

Well, let’s hear it. What happens today? I myself have no clue. We could win by double digits. We could lose by double digits. Or it could be a buzzer-beater by either team. I’ve given up trying to get a read on this bunch.

[jetpilot]

Huge game. Last chance to seize the momentum and keep it. Need a win today and on the road vs MSU Tuesday to feel like a post season run is possible. I'll go out on a limb and say the Cats get it done today. Still hoping Wagner has a big game, I know he's not near 100% but that would be a huge boost at just the right time...

[Old School Hound]

Let me just say to VH, Jet, Spud6, Wildcat blue , 16th BBall Fan, rookie57, Bluecat, Granny, and others that I appreciate all of you for contributing to the discussion of UK basketball games. For the longest time , I would post something about a game and maybe Spud or one or two others would add something but there didn't seem to be much interest. This season has been different. You guys have contributed greatly to the discussion of our favorite college basketball team. I've enjoyed your passionate analysis and discussion. It has made the season all that more fun to follow.


As far as today's game, who knows what to expect, other than there will likely be 170-200 points scored by these two teams. If I was a betting man, I would probably go with KY, but I wouldn't be overly confident about my wager. As much as I enjoy following this team, they are not overly trustworthy. . As I mentioned in the LSU game thread, I love them but don't trust them,  kinda like the wife that you discovered in bed with the next door neighbor. You want to trust her again but it's just hard, man, it's hard.

I wouldn't be shocked if we came out and harpooned them like we did Miami, nor would it shock me if they handed us a loss similar to what Tennessee did. These Cats are bipolar and the only medicine that will help is toughness, and we are lacking in that, especially in our 21 feet, 2 inches of bigs.  GO CATS!!!

[Old School Hound]

As someone who likes to delve into numbers and analytics, let's dive,  shall we?

ALABAMA:

Record:  19-7 ( 11-2, SEC , 8-5 NonC)

AdjEM :   + 26.30 (#6)

AdjOE :  127.4 (#1)

AdjDE:  101.1 (#71)

AdjT  :  72.4  (#14)

LUCK: -0.018 ( # 234)

SOSAdjEM :  +11.62(#5)

NonConSOSAdjEM : +8.50 (#18)



KENTUCKY:  18-8 (8-5 SEC, 10-3 NonC)


AdjEM :   + 19.25 (#23)

AdjOE :  120.5 (#9)

AdjDE:  101.3 (#77)

AdjT  :  71.9 (#18)

LUCK: -0.057 ( # 310)

SOSAdjEM :  +7.18(#58)

NonConSOSAdjEM : -0.055 (#189)




What do the numbers tell us?

1. Both teams can score the basketball. Alabama is the most efficient team in the nation on offense. UK is not too shabby at #9.

2. Both teams struggle to get stops on defense. Bama is slightly better on D , but only six spots higher than UK, which is at #77.

3. Both teams like to push the tempo. Bama averages 1.81 possessions per minute and UK is at 1.80 ppm. Both of these are top 20 tempo teams. Compared to Houston or UConn, both Bama and UK get eight or nine more possessions per game. More possessions mean a higher scoring game.

4. Both teams are ranked very low in the luck category, which means that both teams' records could very easily be much better with a few lucky bounces. These teams have a combined 15 losses but they are much better than what those records indicate.

5. Strength of Schedule--- big advantage to Bama, especially in the non-conference. The Crimson Tide has played the tougher schedule. 

Their five NonConf. losses were to Arizona(#4), Purdue(#2), Clemson(#24), Ohio State(#68), Creighton(#11). Average KenPom of NonConf opponents in losses=  21.8  .  Kentucky lost to  Kansas(#17), Gonzaga(#19), and UNCW(#102). Average KenPom of NonConf Opponents in losses =  46.0 .

Alabama's eight  NonConf wins were against teams with an average KenPom of 139.1 .  UK's ten NonConf wins came against teams with an average KenPom of 199.4  


CONCLUSIONS:  Both of these teams like to play at a very fast tempo and score quickly. Neither team does defense very well. Look for a score in the 80's or 90's, at least. Both teams could easily have 22 or 23 wins with some better luck in their close losses.  Bama has played a significantly tougher schedule than have the Cats. Look for a tight, high-scoring affair , with the team making some clutch plays or getting key stops down the stretch coming out on top.

On paper, it looks like a bit of an advantage for the Crimson Tide. But, as we all know, games are not played on paper. They are played on TV sets. 

For all the blue-haired , blue  blooded elites occupying the lower area seats today, put down away your crochet needles, crossword puzzles, and Words with Friends app on your $1500 smartphone, and make some damn noise.

GO CATS!!!  ROLL THE TIDE!!!

[Cactus Jack]

My prediction: Alabama by 5 in a high scoring game.

[RunItUpTheGut]

TL;DR
Is cal still coach?

Gimme bama

[Old School Hound]

TL;DR
Is cal still coach?

Gimme bama

Shocker!

[RunItUpTheGut]

TL;DR
Is cal still coach?

Gimme bama

Shocker!

Cows cats are 2.5 favorites. Might be easy money

[Old School Hound]

Bama has come to Kentucky six times as the higher ranked team.  Kentucky has won five of those six games.


Alabama is 15-0 when they have score 80+ . They are  4-7 when they have given up 80+ .

How about a 86 -79 UK win ?   

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Reeves has gotten really good at driving to the basket and drawing contact.

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RUTG gonna lose some cash today !!!

[RunItUpTheGut]

Kentucky gonna put up 60 in the first half and Bama looks like vandy.

Freshmen inconsistency. No tough vets telling them to get their stuff together when they slack off. No leaders. It start with cal.

They may win this one by 30 but they’ll lose to miss st or arky.

[Old School Hound]

Kentucky gonna put up 60 in the first half and Bama looks like vandy.

Freshmen inconsistency. No tough vets telling them to get their stuff together when they slack off. No leaders. It start with cal.

They may win this one by 30 but they’ll lose to miss st or arky.

KY up by 16, folks!!!  Let that sink in!!!

[RunItUpTheGut]

Kentucky gonna put up 60 in the first half and Bama looks like vandy.

Freshmen inconsistency. No tough vets telling them to get their stuff together when they slack off. No leaders. It start with cal.

They may win this one by 30 but they’ll lose to miss st or arky.

KY up by 16, folks!!!  Let that sink in!!!

what will you say when they’re down by 16 next week? 
Consistent teams win in march

[Old School Hound]

Run Up the Gut  :

[RunItUpTheGut]

Kentucky can boat race teams with inferior guards. If you don’t have a guy go 7/10 from three and put up 35 in Rupp you’re going to lose

[RunItUpTheGut]

Run Up the Gut  :

I’ll have to reach you how to properly use gifs and pics on here one day but only if you use it against Corbin fans during football season.

[Old School Hound]

Kentucky can boat race teams with inferior guards. If you don’t have a guy go 7/10 from three and put up 35 in Rupp you’re going to lose

[RunItUpTheGut]

Kentucky can boat race teams with inferior guards. If you don’t have a guy go 7/10 from three and put up 35 in Rupp you’re going to lose

yea thats not it chief. 

104 points with 8 minutes left. Bama is a fraud

[Old School Hound]

RUTG's dog:

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[Image: https://media2.giphy.com/media/JMe4NTbuu...y.gif&ct=g]

^^^^^

CAL'S CRITICS