[Cactus Jack]

Thought it might be a good idea to merge everything on this topic here, as many of the individual game threads talk about his pro potential. 

I'll add a lengthy post later, but in short, I'll say that I hope he makes it and does well, but also worry about how well he will transition and how much a franchise will be willing to invest in him. 

I don't know that he's ever going to be more than a slightly plus defender at the NBA level. Good leaping ability but not long enough, muscular enough, or blessed with the type of lateral quickness to be more than the type of defender he already is at the college level. Can't improve height, but he can probably put on a little muscle as he ages and can enhance his quickness marginally. To the latter of those attributes, I'll try to find a video where Brian Scalabrine talks about doing ladder drills while in the NBA.

One of the best lines I've heard from a scout is that "a great player who is ready for the next level makes it look easy". Offensively, he's efficient and has good instincts and a feel for the game, but I'm not seeing a highlight reel full of plays where he "makes it look easy". 

Will expound on it more in a later post, but I think that barring a catastrophic injury, he's probably a second round pick or getting a shot at a two way contract at minimum; however, I think that the timing of when he comes out and the type of organization that takes him will have a huge say in how long he sticks around and what type of career he has.

[Van Hagar]

This is such an interesting topic to me. A year ago I was wondering if he would get any meaningful minutes (maybe in four years) at UK. Now we are debating what his pro prospects are. I think the right NBA roster is the absolute key for what type of pro career he might have. It’s possible he could become a rotation guy in the right spot, don’t know that he will ever be a regular NBA starter. But I never saw super star status for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker or Tyrese Maxey either. Sometimes these guys just really blossom in their early 20s after they’ve left college. Sheppard could still get a little taller (my own son went from 5-11 1/2 at his graduation to 6-1 in two years). He could definitely get stronger. But would he get taken advantage of defensively in the man-to-man world of the NBA? And would he go if he’s not a guaranteed first round pick? He can make a fortune in NIL money every year he’s at UK. One thing I will disagree with you on is that one thing he does make look easy is making the right on the floor decision with getting the ball where it needs to go. That’s not something you’ll necessarily see on ESPN highlights, but coaches and scouts will always be aware of it.

[Cactus Jack]

This is such an interesting topic to me. A year ago I was wondering if he would get any meaningful minutes (maybe in four years) at UK. Now we are debating what his pro prospects are. I think the right NBA roster is the absolute key for what type of pro career he might have. It’s possible he could become a rotation guy in the right spot, don’t know that he will ever be a regular NBA starter. But I never saw super star status for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker or Tyrese Maxey either. Sometimes these guys just really blossom in their early 20s after they’ve left college. Sheppard could still get a little taller (my own son went from 5-11 1/2 at his graduation to 6-1 in two years). He could definitely get stronger. But would he get taken advantage of defensively in the man-to-man world of the NBA? And would he go if he’s not a guaranteed first round pick? He can make a fortune in NIL money every year he’s at UK. One thing I will disagree with you on is that one thing he does make look easy is making the right on the floor decision with getting the ball where it needs to go. That’s not something you’ll necessarily see on ESPN highlights, but coaches and scouts will always be aware of it.

On November 30th, Jonathan Givony of ESPN had him going #25 to the Indiana Pacers.

Others with UK ties:
Olivier Sarr's younger brother, Alex, was projected to go to the Pistons at #2.
Justin Edwards was projected at #13 to San Antonio.
Wagner at #15 to Atlanta.
Dillingham at #20 to Cleveland.
Bradshaw at #39 to Oklahoma City.


Post New Year's Day, Givony had moved Sarr up to #1, Dillingham to #7, and Sheppard to #16. None of the others mentioned above had moved in the post-NYE update. Side note: I'm also high on Baylor's Ja'Kobe Walker, who was projected at #4. Walker may be a good player to draw parallels to later; same goes for Chris Lofton, albeit for different reasons.


If Sheppard is projected to go at #16 when the season ends, his stock will never be (much) higher. At that point, if he has a guarantee, it's a question of how happy he is concluding his career at UK (which their finish will likely have a large say in) versus risking the chance that he comes back only to harm his future draft potential. Either way, it's his decision and not a terrible set of options to have to choose from, but I have a hard time seeing him ever being projected higher than a late lottery pick. I don't see him leaving after his freshman year unless he's going to be a first rounder though-- the NIL money and allure of UK will be too much.


Also going to call it right now, because there are a few NBA franchises that love white college players: the Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, Sacramento Kings, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, and Indiana Pacers. No matter the year, I'm going to take one of those seven against the entire field if you are asking who'll draft him or where he'll end up by the end of draft night. Huge range of how his career could go with those franchises, but I'll go on record and say that the odds on it being one of those seven are high.

[Van Hagar]

I didn’t wanna play the white card in my reply—-but I wanted to. I mean, has there ever been a more Boston Celtics prototype than Sheppard? He might be their modern day John Havlicek if he landed there.

[Cactus Jack]

I didn’t wanna play the white card in my reply—-but I wanted to. I mean, has there ever been a more Boston Celtics prototype than Sheppard? He might be their modern day John Havlicek if he landed there.

And right on cue, a new mock draft has him going to San Antonio at #12.

[plantmanky]

I would think mom and dad wont let him go pro early. Maybe if he graduates early, but not until then.

[Cactus Jack]

I would think mom and dad wont let him go pro early. Maybe if he graduates early, but not until then.

Not trying to burst anyone's bubble, but I don't think he's ever going to be higher than projected at #12. He can always finish his degree later if that's the issue.

[Old School Hound]

I would think mom and dad wont let him go pro early.  Maybe if he graduates early, but not until then.

I think mom and dad locked you in the greenhouse way too early.

[plantmanky]

I would think mom and dad wont let him go pro early.  Maybe if he graduates early, but not until then.

Not trying to burst anyone's bubble, but I don't think he's ever going to be higher than projected at #12. He can always finish his degree later if that's the issue.

He could stay at UK and be a legend.

---

I would think mom and dad wont let him go pro early.  Maybe if he graduates early, but not until then.

I think mom and dad locked you in the greenhouse way too early.

im an alien

[Cactus Jack]

I think he's already going to be a legend at Kentucky. Coming back and seeing his stock slip or God-forbid, getting injured, could mean that the dream of playing in the NBA is over. Short of something criminal, I don't know that any team is going to cut their lottery pick, so he'd be guaranteed playing at least two years, with the team having the option of picking up years three and four. Huge difference in that and slipping into the second round in a strong draft class with the book out on him as holes in his game get exposed.

[Granny Bear]

Well, I'm about to make everybody mad.

He could get hurt in the NBA as well as at UK. Maybe even more of a chance. But that's neither here nor there.

IMO, NOBODY should come out of high school and within a year, be drafted to the NBA. Reed does have the advantage of having parents who knows basketball and is familiar with NBA. So he does have an advantage there. BUT, I still say that I don't think it's good for the player to be drafted this young.

Go ahead. Tear me apart. I dare you!!!

[Cactus Jack]

Well, I'm about to make everybody mad.

He could get hurt in the NBA as well as at UK. Maybe even more of a chance. But that's neither here nor there.

IMO, NOBODY should come out of high school and within a year, be drafted to the NBA. Reed does have the advantage of having parents who knows basketball and is familiar with NBA. So he does have an advantage there. BUT, I still say that I don't think it's good for the player to be drafted this young.

Go ahead. Tear me apart. I dare you!!!

Not mad at all and not trying to tear anyone apart, but there's a huge difference between realizing your goal of playing in the NBA, then going down and an injury before you get there. Draft picks are investments, and the smallest margins matter. A bad knee or Achilles injury to a 6'2 combo guard who already wasn't going to wow at the combine is the difference between two plus years in the league and "what if". ESPN's "Gone in 3.9 Seconds" story on JamesOn Curry is a great example of just how small an extremely talented player's window can be and how quickly it shrinks.

It isn't all about money and I love the Cats, but Reed's NIL value is projected at under $500K and I think that the amount people think he could make is overestimated. The majority of the top NIL earners play football. Only the top five NIL projections (Bronny James, Shedeur Sanders, Livvy Dunne, Arch Manning, and Travis Hunter) exceed $2 million. The #2 NIL value for a men's basketball player is Bryce James at $1.7 million. This list has a theme-- parents/families that are extremely famous professional athletes and/or has a huge social media following and constantly releases content. After those, there's a huge drop, and I doubt fans find him nearly as charming if he were releasing influencer reels after a tough game or loss.

Late first round NBA draft picks have a base above $2 million and late lottery picks are above $3.5 million; any endorsements, etc., are on top of that. Either way, I don't think he'll be starving soon, but there's a significant difference in those figures and the NIL money that is essentially a pro's endorsements.


I do agree that MOST players his age shouldn't go. The most agreeable exceptions are: 1.) a generational talent like LeBron, Kobe, or even Garnett; and 2.) foreign players like Luka or Wembanyama who are ready and have essentially been pros since their teens.

Feelings aside, the rules allow him to enter, and in the draft, potential will be prioritized over substance. Given, I'd add a third category: players who want to go, are informed of the risk, & whose stock will likely never be any higher.

Ideally, he'd develop over two to three years and cement his legacy with back-to-back national championships before declaring. He'd get selected by the Celtics or Lakers and make meaningful contributions to championship teams over a twelve year career before moving into a coaching suite or riding off into the sunset.

Realistically, I think it'd be very risky to turn down a viable opportunity at being a lottery pick or a gaurantee of being a mid-first rounder. If he were a 6'10 monster with elite physical tools but raw skills, it'd probably be different. As is, he's a kid who wasn't seen as a sure-fire contributor on his college team coming in, much less a projected lottery pick. He may not be at his ceiling, but it's a very long way from the expected floor.

[Granny Bear]

Oh Jack!! I was kidding about making folks mad. You should know, I don't care who's mad at me!!

You make excellent points, and they're all true. But bottom line, he's still too young, IMO. He's still a teenager. He may even have another growth spurt in his future!

[Cactus Jack]

As an aside, the 2025 Final Four is in San Antonio. How poetic would it be for him to perform well on the same stage where his father was named Most Outstanding Player?

[Cactus Jack]

CBS Sports has Reed as the #9 overall pick in their current mock.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...to-top-10/

[Wildcat_blue]

You’re crazy to think the Shepard family would choose the NBA over Kentucky. Mom and Dad don’t put that many hours into a program personally to just walk away, her shirt literally says it’s in my blood. They definitely will not be leaving until Travis Perry gets there next year. Reed is different from the others, he doesn’t need attention or connections from anybody; he’s already on the national stage and excelling. Just my opinion but I see reed staying at least another year if not all 4. He will get lost in the NBA IMO, same as Oscar. If CAL got more kids from Kentucky to come you would see more consistent pattern of players staying longer; it just means more to them!! Kentucky has at least one player from the state a year worthy of a shot. Kid from Harlan county is better than Perry I’m sure. Newport, great crossing, so on. There are kids to choose from

[Spud6]

Lottery pick you gotta go to the NBA.

[Cactus Jack]

Lottery pick you gotta go to the NBA.

He will never be higher than that position no matter how well he plays. 6'3 guards with excellent skills and basketball IQ but okay athleticism are always going to be available. Good help/team defender but will really struggle to defend that type of athleticism and physicality in space at the NBA.

2024 is seen as a weaker draft class. If it's there, you have to push all your chips into the middle of the table or you need to be ready to possibly have to live with having missed your chance later on.

[Wildcat_blue]

Lottery pick you gotta go to the NBA.

Not saying you’re wrong, just feel reed is personally invested unlike the other kids.  Tough call but we shall see!  Either way I think it’s a win win for him.  Of course, I would love to see him back in the blue

[Cactus Jack]

Paywalled but ESPN Insider has him at #12.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...-prospects

[Cactus Jack]

As of February 9, CBS Sports' Gary Parrish has Reed going #2 overall to San Antonio:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2024-...-top-four/

Tankathon.com currently has Sheppard going #6 overall to Toronto:
https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

NBADraft.net currently has him going #9 overall to Oklahoma City:
https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/


Not trying to hate here, but who are these commentators seeing him defend at the next level? The NBA is a wildly different game.

[Cactus Jack]

Tonight's stat line against Mississippi State:

32 points on 11/14 FG, 4/7 3PT, & 6/6 FTs with 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals, and 2 turnovers in 35 minutes of regulation.

Still had some lapses (late) that we've seen throughout the year, but after tonight's effort and game winner, at worst, he's probably locked into the late first, early second round of the draft barring a complete implosion.

ESPN Insider's latest Mock Draft (2/20) has him going #12 overall to the Bulls, but I suspect that as the combine nears, you'll see some international or G-League prospects start to shoot up the board in what's considered a weak overall draft.

[Old School Hound]

I haven't watched the NBA in years Remind me again , who plays great defense in that league?

[Cactus Jack]

I haven't watched the NBA in years Remind me again , who plays great defense in that league?

The Celtics get after it defensively. Minnesota grades really well in the metrics and usually looks the part (but they have had a favorable slate to do it against). You can see five guys on a string if you ever catch either of them on. Wolves are actually playing at a historical adjusted defensive pace right now-- Gobert and Towns are 7'0+, McDaniels is 6'9, and Edwards is a 6'4 athletic freak, so they can make it a long night with all that length funneling everything to the rim.

Heat usually scheme well and have line-ups that can give the opposition fits. Milwaukee also has a lot of size, length, and athleticism that can shut you down for stretches... they've been horrible so far this season but are starting to play better. Clippers have some good individual defenders like Kawhi and Westbrook to make up for Harden.

A lot of it is just going to be match-up dependent too though.

Most people see the high scores in NBA games and forget that there's an extra two minutes per quarter (on top of their 24 second clock). With the differential in talent levels, that can mean many more points regardless of how well someone defends.

[Cactus Jack]

I haven't watched the NBA in years Remind me again ,  who plays great defense in that league?

An example of the Timberwolves' defense. I still think that they're overhyped by the metrics, but this* is not something you are going to see very often in a college game.

https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=39679439


*this being a defender hitting his head on the square while blocking a shot.

[Cactus Jack]

ESPN Insider released an article today about the possibility of Dillingham being the top pick. Kind of click-baity, as the probability is low (and they admit that), but thought that it was interesting nonetheless.

[Cactus Jack]

Can we all agree that Sheppard and Dillingham are going to struggle defensively in the NBA given what we've seen in the first half of the Kentucky-Oakland NCAA Tournament game?

First team in history to have two NBA lottery picks that let a mid-major guard come off the bench and go off like this and outscore them this badly by himself. Gohlke averages 12.2 PPG and already has 21 points with time still remaining before the half. He hasn't attempted a two, and it isn't as if Oakland is running a ton of offense through him or has some magic formula that doesn't allow us to force him into driving the ball.

But for this being a weak draft, I don't see how lots of players being projected are lottery picks right now.

[Spud6]

Zero shot Sheppard is the #1 pick in the draft after the month of tape he’s put out in March

[Cactus Jack]

Zero shot Sheppard is the #1 pick in the draft after the month of tape he’s put out in March

Zero chance he was ever going to be the #1 pick. Same for Dillingham.

[Spud6]

Zero shot Sheppard is the #1 pick in the draft after the month of tape he’s put out in March

Zero chance he was ever going to be the #1 pick. Same for Dillingham.

Rob makes more sense because of how good he is one on one and his ability to make any shot. Reeds just a very good high IQ basketball player normally besides the last 4-5 games.