[Cactus Jack]

I'll start: 

Sugar Bowl: 1.) Georgia vs. 4.) Florida St.
Rose Bowl: 2.) Ohio State vs. 3.) Oregon

Georgia beats Alabama and does enough to keep it's grip on #1. Michigan can't make it four straight against Ohio State and loses a heartbreaker. Oregon avenges their loss to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship and does so with enough style to jump to #3. Florida State holds off a Florida team that's playing with nothing to lose before erasing any remaining doubt by pulling away from Louisville in the 2nd half and leaving the committee no choice but to reward their undefeated season. 


Group of Six: 
Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Texas

I've ordered the list above by the date and time that they'll kick. Unless I'm mistaken, the Orange Bowl has to have an ACC team playing the highest ranked SEC/Big 10 non-champion or Notre Dame in years where it isn't a semifinal. If so, the networks will be dying to see a Florida State loss that knocks them out of the playoffs, otherwise this one is probably a throwaway game. 

With the Orange Bowl already looking shot, I have a hard time seeing the Pac-12 #2 and Big 10 #3 filling such a valuable slot, especially given that there's already a Pac-12 vs. Big-10 semifinal in the Rose Bowl. Given, Washington and Texas fit well in the Fiesta, but Oklahoma could also take Texas' place here and the money from ticket sales and the networks still works. Even if they're eligible, Michigan went to the Fiesta last season and another cross-country trip to Phoenix after a loss to OSU may be too much for schedulers. 

For the same reasons as the Fiesta Bowl, the Peach Bowl will forgo a traditional SEC-ACC matchup that repeats the format of a semifinal. Alabama and Penn State will draw each other in Atlanta for a throwback game that makes plenty of sense for everyone involved. 

The Cotton Bowl gets the leftovers. The committee chooses Ole Miss and Oklahoma, who have huge alumni bases and are a relatively short distance from Dallas, to round out the schedule. 


Rest (SEC):
Citrus: LSU vs. Iowa
Reliaquest/Outback: Missouri vs. Notre Dame
Music City: Auburn vs. Wisconsin
Gator: Tennessee vs. North Carolina
Texas: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma St.
Liberty: Kentucky vs. West Virginia

The Citrus gets first pick of what's left and doesn't worry about a return trip from LSU; I'm running out of Big 10 teams, but will take Iowa. If so, the only worry in Orlando will be that this pairing again leads to a pair of school's fans drying up the stadium before halftime. The Outback prefers Notre Dame over anyone left in the Big 10. The Citrus and Outback selections could also easily flip. 

Auburn backs into the Music City Bowl because Nashville needs someone other than Kentucky and Tennessee probably prefers to go to Jacksonville while the Texas Bowl's Houston contingent will push hard to get a Texas A&M team who hasn't been there in awhile to help fill up NRG Stadium. 

The Liberty Bowl ends up with Kentucky and West Virginia, who hasn't been there as recently as Kansas or Texas Tech. I could see the Duke's Mayo Bowl being a destination for the Cats, and this is where most projections currently have them, but I don't know that we even see enough SEC teams qualify (Florida would need to beat FSU, South Carolina would need to beat Clemson, and/or Mississippi State would need to beat Ole Miss to reach six wins). It seems easier to see the Duke's, which alternates SEC affiliation with the Las Vegas Bowl in even and odd numbered years, to find a participant.

[Westside]

I like a lot of your predictions. I hope Ohio State does make it back to the CFP. As far as Kentucky vs West Virginia in a bowl game I would love to see that. Maybe Kentucky can reverse their loss to the Eers back in the early 80's. I remember watching that game on a very small black and white tv that my brother had just gotten in his room.

[Cactus Jack]

I like a lot of your predictions. I hope Ohio State does make it back to the CFP. As far as Kentucky vs West Virginia in a bowl game I would love to see that. Maybe Kentucky can reverse their loss to the Eers back in the early 80's. I remember watching that game on a very small black and white tv that my brother had just gotten in his room.

Memphis is an underrated city to spend a few days in. Have heard that the Liberty Bowl venue leaves a bit to be desired though. With so few teams in the East looking bowl eligible, I think it's a likely destination.

The Neal Brown angle could get some interest in the game. It's a better storyline than the overplayed "Basketbowl" against Kansas, North Carolina, or Duke that undersells itself to the casual fan from the jump.

A Mississippi State win probably puts them there and moves UK to Charlotte.

I'd think the SEC would rather have Florida in Charlotte should they win, especially given that it'd mean they'd just beaten a top 5 Florida State.

You'd think a South Carolina win makes them an automatic for Charlotte, but they've already played there once this year. They'll also have played North Carolina and Clemson by then, so scheduling a third bowl-eligible ACC game that isn't a rematch could be tricky.

At the end of the day, the Liberty usually looks West, but as is, no one, including Missouri, really fits that bill this year unless Texas A&M doesn't end up in Houston or Auburn winds up there... if the latter, then Tennessee is either going to be unable to politic out of the Music City or the reps in Nashville are going to risk a 2nd year in a row where there's a dud in attendance involving the Cats.

The last time a Music City Bowl game with Kentucky topped 50K in attendance was 2009 & the last time over 60K was in 2007. The UK numbers in 2017 & 2022 were bad, even compared to teams playing in the COVID era. Running head-to-head with the Louisville basketball game and not having the juciest matchups probably contributed to that, but after a low gate in 2019 and having to cancel entirely in 2020, I think their committee wants to make a splash here.

An Auburn-Wisconsin type matchup might be two bad teams, but it's two underachievers whose fans will probably travel to see them play.

[Cactus Jack]

Auburn playing Alabama well for a half alone probably boosts their bowl status. Kentucky beating Louisville definitely helps the Cats' stock and hurts the Cards', but will still need a bit to see exactly what this does to the SEC's' bowl projections.

Will be watching the Iron Bowl, Apple Cup, and Florida St./Florida closely. From the looks of it, we might have an upset in at least one of those.

[Van Hagar]

What do you think about the conference championship games now after what you saw this Saturday? I think Michigan is a slam dunk, Iowa won’t score 10 points on them. But the others…..I think Oregon is beating Washington, the Ducks are playing great football right now. I think Bama over Georgia and Louisville over Florida St. are both very possible. And I think Texas will beat Okla. St. which could definitely get them into the playoff depending on other outcomes. It could be chalk next week with four undefeateds. Or it could be a big mess. I’m rooting for a mess, gives us something to debate.

[Cactus Jack]

What do you think about the conference championship games now after what you saw this Saturday? I think Michigan is a slam dunk, Iowa won’t score 10 points on them. But the others…..I think Oregon is beating Washington, the Ducks are playing great football right now. I think Bama over Georgia and Louisville over Florida St. are both very possible. And I think Texas will beat Okla. St. which could definitely get them into the playoff depending on other outcomes. It could be chalk next week with four undefeateds. Or it could be a big mess. I’m rooting for a mess, gives us something to debate.

Outside of Iowa over Michigan, I don't anything would shock me, but boring chalk here.

Michigan big because Iowa cannot score enough to win no matter how well their defense plays.

Georgia as long as Bowers plays, but nothing would surprise me. Could be a defensive battle, as both of the QBs seem to have their limits and the opposing D can easily step up at any moment.

Oregon because Washington has looked very shaky lately and they just seem better. Vegas has the opening line at the Ducks minus nine.

Florida State because they are better than people think and they've gotten their first win with Rodemaker & can only go up. They have some big, physical receivers that will help him complete those short to intermediate throws. Louisville isn't great either.

Texas will take care of business against Oklahoma State but their loss to Oklahoma haunts them and they finish the year at #5.

[Van Hagar]

If it goes that way, do you think Oregon will leapfrog Florida St. for the three seed? If not, you are going to get Georgia-Oregon and Michigan-Florida St. as the semis. Advantage Michigan, even though they’d be the two seed.

[Cactus Jack]

If it goes that way, do you think Oregon will leapfrog Florida St. for the three seed? If not, you are going to get Georgia-Oregon and Michigan-Florida St. as the semis. Advantage Michigan, even though they’d be the two seed.

I think Oregon is the 3-seed and they use strength of schedule as the justification. The only way I see Florida State as the #3 is if they easily handle Louisville, but even then, I think Kentucky's win over the cards severely hurts the ACC. Essentially, I see the committee telling Florida State "just be glad that we let you in". I don't think Harbaugh and the sign-stealing scandal does anything to help Michigan's case for seeding, whether that's overtly stated or not.

[Van Hagar]

To me, where things could really get interesting would be if Alabama beats Georgia. Do the Dawgs still get in? How could they over Alabama? But then how could Bama over Texas, a team that beat them on their home field. Imposssible as it may seem, the SEC could not have a representative in the playoff if Michigan, Alabama, Texas, Florida St. and Washington all win.

[Cactus Jack]

Looking more and more like Kentucky is a lock for the Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. The win over Louisville and Auburn playing Alabama so tight probably sealed this one. I know many of the national publications always had them there, but if you look at many of those lists you'll sometimes notice that they don't take things like when a team last played in that bowl or city and when they last played their projected opponent.

[Van Hagar]

Well, credit to Washington for doing something most of us didn’t expect, and that’s beating Oregon twice. I really thought the Ducks would not only win that game, I sort of had them as my favorite to run the table and win it all, I thought they were playing better than anybody in the country. No outcome in Saturday’s games would surprise me other than Michigan losing to Iowa, that would be a stunner. Obviously if Georgia and Florida St. win that’s your four. But if Alabama beats Georgia……

[Van Hagar]

Uh oh. Let chaos ensue. If Florida St. wins to remain undefeated, do they still get passed over? Can Bama get in over Texas, even though both are one-loss conference champions and Texas beat them on their home field? Will two-time defending champ Georgia be the first team ranked one by the committee going in to championship weekend to get dropped from the top four? Could the SEC not have a representative at all? Somebody, maybe two somebody’s are going to be crying foul tomorrow. And what if (almost no chance, but..) Michigan loses to Iowa? This is a delightful mess now.

[Westside]

My four teams are:  Michigan, Washington, Texas, Bama

[Van Hagar]

Did Florida St. get robbed? Or did they get it right? What do you all think?

[Westside]

Did Florida St. get robbed? Or did they get it right? What do you all think?

I don't think they did.  I considered the Ohio State vs Michigan game a playoff game.  Ohio State lost, so they were eliminated.  I considered the Georgia vs Bama game a playoff game.  Georgia lost so they were eliminated.  I considered the Oregon vs Washington game a playoff game.  Oregon lost so they were eliminated.  Out of all the teams left, I think Washington, Michigan, Texas, and Bama were the 4 best remaining teams.  FSU just wasn't good enough IMO.

[Van Hagar]

I don’t disagree with that. I think they got it right as well with the four they picked. But I still can’t get totally on board with leaving out a power 5 team that went undefeated, even if their qb was gonna miss the playoffs. It was a very tough call, glad I wasn’t on that committee. This would have been a perfect year for an eight-team bracket, the four that made it plus Florida St., Georgia, Ohio St. and Oregon. That would have been epic.

[Van Hagar]

Boy, at my workplace it’s basically a 50/50 split between folks who think they got it right, and folks who think Florida St. got shafted. And the folks that think Florida St. got shafted are LIVID about it. Talking to my son last night about it, he says Florida St. should show up for the Orange Bowl game, go through the pregame, then go back to the locker room get on the team bus and leave. Not seriously of course, too many $$$$ involved, but you get his point. There is definitely an argument to be made on both sides. And I can make an argument that Georgia got it stuck to them as well. 29 straight wins and two straight national championships? And you take a three point loss on a neutral field to an excellent one-loss team and you drop from 1 to 6? Hard to swallow.

[Cactus Jack]

Best way I heard it put: you can pick the four best teams or the four most deserving teams, but you can't pick both.

Best Four:
Michigan
Alabama/Georgia/Texas/Washington*
*Pick 3

Most Deserving:
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Florida State

All this has done is whet everyone's appetite for an expanded playoff.

[Cactus Jack]

Georgia opening as a 13-14 point favorite over Florida State says a lot about who is better. Big bets and public opinion can swing a line, but not like that.

[Westside]

I think the selection committee got it right by leaving out Florida State. LOL!