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2021-13th Region District Predictions
#1
49th District
North Laurel -Wins
Clay -Runner up

50th District
South Laurel -Wins
Corbin -Runner Up

51st District Knox 
Knox Central -Wins
Lynn Camp -Runner Up

52nd Harlan Co. -Wins
Harlan -Runner Up
#2
(03-09-2021, 10:14 AM)Oldtiger Wrote: 49th District
North Laurel -Wins
Clay -Runner up

50th District
South Laurel -Wins
Corbin -Runner Up

51st District Knox 
Knox Central -Wins
Lynn Camp -Runner Up

52nd Harlan Co. -Wins
Harlan -Runner Up
Come on Oldtiger , screw the chalk. Let's go bold.   I've been thinking about this for a few days. I'll give my predictions after some more contemplation. Something tells me Coach Gray  and Coach P  may have some surprises in store for North and South , respectively.
#3
Best chances for an upset, I think, are Clay Co. over North in the 49th finals (it's at Clay, I believe), Corbin over South in 50th finals (although I have a hard time calling that an upset, they are basically dead even in my eyes, even though South won both regular season games), and Harlan over Harlan Co. in 52nd district finals, they trounced them once this year already. But even if all that happens, all those teams are still gonna be in the regional tournament. The only tight elimination game I see is Lynn Camp-Barbourville in the 51st.
#4
(03-09-2021, 11:56 AM)Van Hagar Wrote: Best chances for an upset, I think, are Clay Co. over North in the 49th finals (it's at Clay, I believe), Corbin over South in 50th finals (although I have a hard time calling that an upset, they are basically dead even in my eyes, even though South won both regular season games), and Harlan over Harlan Co. in 52nd district finals, they trounced them once this year already.  But even if all that happens, all those teams are still gonna be in the regional tournament.  The only tight elimination game I see is Lynn Camp-Barbourville in the 51st.


The Campers and Barbourville are so even that I wouldn't feel safe in any prediction I make on that one.  Clay and Corbin definitely have shots at North and South.   Harlan trounced the Black Bears once and I believe the district is at Harlan .  I'm not sure on that one yet. Got a lot of thinking to do.
#5
(03-09-2021, 11:44 AM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(03-09-2021, 10:14 AM)Oldtiger Wrote: 49th District
North Laurel -Wins
Clay -Runner up

50th District
South Laurel -Wins
Corbin -Runner Up

51st District Knox 
Knox Central -Wins
Lynn Camp -Runner Up

52nd Harlan Co. -Wins
Harlan -Runner Up
Come on Oldtiger , screw the chalk. Let's go bold.   I've been thinking about this for a few days. I'll give my predictions after some more contemplation. Something tells me Coach Gray  and Coach P  may have some surprises in store for North and South , respectively.
I like to play it safe, once region starts the way I see it is every team has a shot at upsetting anyone, out of my picks I'd say the two teams everyone wants to draw in game one is either Lynn Camp or Clay, 3 years ago many people were predicting Clay to be rolling in 2021, but the team didn't step up to it's potential, after some of the upsets and blow outs Clay's had this season nothing would surprise me. They could win it all or get run off the court, who knows, however I wouldn't be surprised at all to see North, South, Corbin, Knox, Harlan, Clay, or Lynn Camp hoisting the regional Championship Trophy when it's all said and done.  Also Bell could arrive in the arena and make me look like a fool.
#6
If Clay has any surprises in their bag of tricks shouldn't they save them for Region? IMO, no way Clay wins region.
#7
(03-10-2021, 12:13 PM)nedreader Wrote: If Clay has any surprises in their bag of tricks shouldn't they save them for Region?  IMO, no way Clay wins region.

Sandbagger.  You should change your name to Lou Holtz.  Smile     I definitely wouldn't  say no way. 

I say Coach Gray's kids give North Laurel all they want in the district final.    Honestly, like most of the 13th region teams this season, Clay is capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone.
#8
Even after their disappointing showing last weekend in Lexington, I still rate North Laurel  as the clear favorite . As for six other teams- South , Knox, Corbin, Harlan County, Harlan, and Clay- there's not more than a couple or three buckets difference in them. And Bell and Lynn Camp are capable of pulling a surprise.

Corbin's probably the hottest team right now, Knox has J.Turner , South has beaten Corbin and Knox , Harlan County has won more games than anyone except North, the Dragons have roasted the Black Bears,  Clay has Mr. Robinson , Bell has beaten Clay,  Lynn Camp has beaten Harlan .  I diagnose schizophrenia in the 13th Region.
#9
(03-10-2021, 08:46 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 12:13 PM)nedreader Wrote: If Clay has any surprises in their bag of tricks shouldn't they save them for Region?  IMO, no way Clay wins region.

Sandbagger.  You should change your name to Lou Holtz.  Smile     I definitely wouldn't  say no way. 

I say Coach Gray's kids give North Laurel all they want in the district final.    Honestly, like most of the 13th region teams this season, Clay is capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone.
No way Clay beats North.  They don't have the coaching capability to do this.  I have 0% confidence in the coaching staff at Clay and I believe they lose big again to North and will be 1 and done in the region.
#10
Barring major upsets, there will be a big first-round regional matchup guaranteed. If North, Knox and Harlan Co. win their districts, one of them is gonna get stuck with the Corbin-South district loser right off the bat. Now, that will be a first-round matchup to see.
#11
(03-11-2021, 02:15 PM)Van Hagar Wrote: Barring major upsets, there will be a big first-round regional matchup guaranteed.  If North, Knox and Harlan Co. win their districts, one of them is gonna get stuck with the Corbin-South district loser right off the bat.  Now, that will be a first-round matchup to see.



Good point, VH.   I would hate like hell to win district and then be looking at South or Corbin first game at the Arena.
#12
Clay lacks a true point guard which would really help with their head coaching liability. They don’t rebound well or play very good defense which are very important this time of year so they’re out of contention for sure. North, South, KC and Corbin are top 4 IMO. Question is when will Gray step down at Clay?
#13
I'm not in the know as far as the Clay program goes, but I can't believe Coach Gray is as bad as some are saying.  What exactly are his coaching liabilities?  Again, you guys know more than I do.     How bad was Coach Gray when Clay steamrolled an excellent Boyle Co. team this year?  Did he just get lucky when he beat North three times last year?  Was he just lucky when he soundly defeated 11th Region Champion, Scott County? 

  I watched his kids claw back from a big fourth quarter deficit in the Falls Invitational at Corbin last year to beat an exceptionally talented Knoxville Catholic team. His kids never gave up. In fact, they pitched a shut out(14-0) in that fourth quarter against Catholic, who had two D-I players on the floor. The next night they gave an undefeated and top-ranked John Hardin all they wanted. Is Coach Gray only bad when Clay loses? I know Clay hasn't lived up to a lot of people's expectations, but I'm just not understanding how Coach Gray is as bad as they Clay contingent say he is. What seem to be the biggest issues in Clay not meeting expectations? Has player development been a problem? Players leaving the program? 

I stick by my prediction- the Tigers will give North all they can handle in the 49th district final .
#14
(03-11-2021, 02:57 PM)nedreader Wrote: Clay lacks a true point guard which would really help with their head coaching liability.  They don’t rebound well or play very good defense which are very important this time of year so they’re out of contention for sure.  North, South, KC and Corbin are top 4 IMO.  Question is when will Gray step down at Clay?
They had a point guard in the previous 3 years and didn't accomplish anything.......Gray will step down after this season because he has already destroyed the program and has nothing left to accomplish.

(03-11-2021, 03:39 PM)Old School Hound Wrote: I'm not in the know as far as the Clay program goes, but I can't believe Coach Gray is as bad as some are saying.  What exactly are his coaching liabilities?  Again, you guys know more than I do.     How bad was Coach Gray when Clay steamrolled an excellent Boyle Co. team this year?  Did he just get lucky when he beat North three times last year?  Was he just lucky when he soundly defeated 11th Region Champion, Scott County? 

  I watched his kids claw back from a big fourth quarter deficit in the Falls Invitational at Corbin last year to beat an exceptionally talented Knoxville Catholic team. His kids never gave up. In fact, they pitched a shut out(14-0) in that fourth quarter against Catholic, who had two D-I players on the floor. The next night they gave an undefeated and top-ranked John Hardin all they wanted. Is Coach Gray only bad when Clay loses? I know Clay hasn't lived up to a lot of people's expectations, but I'm just not understanding how Coach Gray is as bad as they Clay contingent say he is. What seem to be the biggest issues in Clay not meeting expectations? Has player development been a problem? Players leaving the program? 

I stick by my prediction- the Tigers will give North all they can handle in the 49th district final
Yes they beat Boyle at home this year and that is their ONLY good win on the year.......they did beat north 3 times last year in which they should have....Clay had a really talented team last year and what was the results????  Clay has had the same talented team for the last 3 years and what was the results????  2 of those he didn't even get out of district and that never happens at places like Clay County.......Corbin talent wise has been down since Taylor left but they have one of the best coaches in the region in Coach P and that is why they are completive every year.   A good coach can take a team and completely blow Clay County out of the gym....not because of the players but because they have a coach that can not make in game adjustments PERIOD........Look at the North game this year....North likes to run and score and Clay comes out and tries to run and score with them and what happened????  A good coach would never try to run with North......Do you think Corbin would??  I base my opinions on stats and what I see.....and from both of them Gray is the worst coach Clay has ever had in their history.
#15
(03-11-2021, 04:19 PM)cchsfan4life Wrote:
(03-11-2021, 02:57 PM)nedreader Wrote: Clay lacks a true point guard which would really help with their head coaching liability.  They don’t rebound well or play very good defense which are very important this time of year so they’re out of contention for sure.  North, South, KC and Corbin are top 4 IMO.  Question is when will Gray step down at Clay?
They had a point guard in the previous 3 years and didn't accomplish anything.......Gray will step down after this season because he has already destroyed the program and has nothing left to accomplish.


(03-11-2021, 03:39 PM)Old School Hound Wrote: I'm not in the know as far as the Clay program goes, but I can't believe Coach Gray is as bad as some are saying.  What exactly are his coaching liabilities?  Again, you guys know more than I do.     How bad was Coach Gray when Clay steamrolled an excellent Boyle Co. team this year?  Did he just get lucky when he beat North three times last year?  Was he just lucky when he soundly defeated 11th Region Champion, Scott County? 

  I watched his kids claw back from a big fourth quarter deficit in the Falls Invitational at Corbin last year to beat an exceptionally talented Knoxville Catholic team. His kids never gave up. In fact, they pitched a shut out(14-0) in that fourth quarter against Catholic, who had two D-I players on the floor. The next night they gave an undefeated and top-ranked John Hardin all they wanted. Is Coach Gray only bad when Clay loses? I know Clay hasn't lived up to a lot of people's expectations, but I'm just not understanding how Coach Gray is as bad as they Clay contingent say he is. What seem to be the biggest issues in Clay not meeting expectations? Has player development been a problem? Players leaving the program? 

I stick by my prediction- the Tigers will give North all they can handle in the 49th district final
Yes they beat Boyle at home this year and that is their ONLY good win on the year.......they did beat north 3 times last year in which they should have....Clay had a really talented team last year and what was the results????  Clay has had the same talented team for the last 3 years and what was the results????  2 of those he didn't even get out of district and that never happens at places like Clay County.......Corbin talent wise has been down since Taylor left but they have one of the best coaches in the region in Coach P and that is why they are completive every year.   A good coach can take a team and completely blow Clay County out of the gym....not because of the players but because they have a coach that can not make in game adjustments PERIOD........Look at the North game this year....North likes to run and score and Clay comes out and tries to run and score with them and what happened????  A good coach would never try to run with North......Do you think Corbin would??  I base my opinions on stats and what I see.....and from both of them Gray is the worst coach Clay has ever had in their history.



So, Gray's goal was to destroy the program? I don't think the program is destroyed. Clay Co. was just so good for long that the rest of the region had to step it up or get stepped on. Guys like Billy Hicks, Steve Wright, Bill Swafford, and Mike Jones established strong programs of their own and that has continued with Pietrowski, Davis, Patterson , and Michael Jones.  I think it's more a case of everyone else catching up to Clay Co. than it is Clay Co. being terrible.  Clay has never been terrible. There are not too many legends. Keith was a legend. No one will ever fill the shoes of a legend like that.
#16
For every “good” win you mention there is an equal or worse loss. Bell, Corbin, etc this year are examples. I only say Corbin because to be up by 10 around halftime and lose by 14 means something happened in one locker room at the half that didn’t happen in the other. As a coach you have to anticipate halftime adjustments by your opponent if you’re up and make adjustments if you’re down. Clay also lost by 30 to KC this year! Do you actually think KC is 30 points better than Clay based on talent? One of two things happened, either the coach didn’t have his team ready to play or there were no in game adjustments made when things started to go sideways. Lastly, the most important games are regional tournament games. Check Gray’s record in 13th region games and there’s your answer. Also check the roster after the starting 5 this year and see how much depth you find. There’s a reason for some of the lack of depth but that reason probably shouldn’t be discussed on here as it relates to Gray.?
#17
(03-11-2021, 05:43 PM)Old School Hound Wrote:
(03-11-2021, 04:19 PM)cchsfan4life Wrote:
(03-11-2021, 02:57 PM)nedreader Wrote: Clay lacks a true point guard which would really help with their head coaching liability.  They don’t rebound well or play very good defense which are very important this time of year so they’re out of contention for sure.  North, South, KC and Corbin are top 4 IMO.  Question is when will Gray step down at Clay?
They had a point guard in the previous 3 years and didn't accomplish anything.......Gray will step down after this season because he has already destroyed the program and has nothing left to accomplish.


(03-11-2021, 03:39 PM)Old School Hound Wrote: I'm not in the know as far as the Clay program goes, but I can't believe Coach Gray is as bad as some are saying.  What exactly are his coaching liabilities?  Again, you guys know more than I do.     How bad was Coach Gray when Clay steamrolled an excellent Boyle Co. team this year?  Did he just get lucky when he beat North three times last year?  Was he just lucky when he soundly defeated 11th Region Champion, Scott County? 

  I watched his kids claw back from a big fourth quarter deficit in the Falls Invitational at Corbin last year to beat an exceptionally talented Knoxville Catholic team. His kids never gave up. In fact, they pitched a shut out(14-0) in that fourth quarter against Catholic, who had two D-I players on the floor. The next night they gave an undefeated and top-ranked John Hardin all they wanted. Is Coach Gray only bad when Clay loses? I know Clay hasn't lived up to a lot of people's expectations, but I'm just not understanding how Coach Gray is as bad as they Clay contingent say he is. What seem to be the biggest issues in Clay not meeting expectations? Has player development been a problem? Players leaving the program? 

I stick by my prediction- the Tigers will give North all they can handle in the 49th district final
Yes they beat Boyle at home this year and that is their ONLY good win on the year.......they did beat north 3 times last year in which they should have....Clay had a really talented team last year and what was the results????  Clay has had the same talented team for the last 3 years and what was the results????  2 of those he didn't even get out of district and that never happens at places like Clay County.......Corbin talent wise has been down since Taylor left but they have one of the best coaches in the region in Coach P and that is why they are completive every year.   A good coach can take a team and completely blow Clay County out of the gym....not because of the players but because they have a coach that can not make in game adjustments PERIOD........Look at the North game this year....North likes to run and score and Clay comes out and tries to run and score with them and what happened????  A good coach would never try to run with North......Do you think Corbin would??  I base my opinions on stats and what I see.....and from both of them Gray is the worst coach Clay has ever had in their history.



So, Gray's goal was to destroy the program? I don't think the program is destroyed. Clay Co. was just so good for long that the rest of the region had to step it up or get stepped on. Guys like Billy Hicks, Steve Wright, Bill Swafford, and Mike Jones established strong programs of their own and that has continued with Pietrowski, Davis, Patterson , and Michael Jones.  I think it's more a case of everyone else catching up to Clay Co. than it is Clay Co. being terrible.  Clay has never been terrible. There are not too many legends. Keith was a legend. No one will ever fill the shoes of a legend like that.


No I don't think it was Grays goal to destroy the program but he has....he has taken teams who in 4 years should have won at least 1 maybe 2 regional tournaments and only played in 2 regional games......he has also put no focus on the future and that is why after this year Clay will really struggle to even have a winning record for a while.........It all boils down to he should never have gotten the head coaching job period when Marcum resigned.....however anyone close to the program knows what went on and how he got the job.......The school board and superintendent got what they wanted and now are paying for a terrible mistake....
#18
What's happened to Clay Co sports runs so much deeper than a coach, it's the result of the socioeconomic situation beyond anyones control. Families who want a better future for their children are moving away from Clay to surrounding counties at an alarming rate. With the recent flood devastation of the Ramsey Ball Park I expect those numbers to grow even more. Families of children with the means to travel 20 minutes will enroll them in surrounding counties sports programs this spring and summer, they'll create friendships and the next thing you know that Clay kid with all the potential has enrolled with his new friends in a new school district in a neighboring county.

As far as the decline of Clay sports it's only just started,
#19
Can you imagine the pressure on coach gray this postseason. I remember hearing way back then that coach gray felt extremely confident he could win region three years in a row. Well, he hasn’t done anything up to this point. This is his last year to do it and his postseason track record isn’t very good.

I predict north beats clay by 9. Then clay loses first game in region. Then what was supposed to be memorable and historic the past three years will be a failure and the future after this will be even worse. The downfall of clay sports. Thank you coach gray and big sexton for destroying basketball in clay county. Coach Keith and hundreds of others frown on you two individuals.

Last note, Corbin playing best ball right now in region I think. Someone has to beat Knox, they the two time defending champ, so you can’t over look them. But in the end, north wins only by single digits to advance to Rupp against who knows. Should be fun to watch.
#20
(03-13-2021, 11:12 PM)Waynes_ Wrote: Can you imagine the pressure on coach gray this postseason.  I remember hearing way back then that coach gray felt extremely confident he could win region three years in a row.  Well, he hasn’t done anything up to this point.  This is his last year to do it and his postseason track record isn’t very good.

I predict north beats clay by 9.  Then clay loses first game in region.  Then what was supposed to be memorable and historic the past three years will be a failure and the future after this will be even worse.  The downfall of clay sports.  Thank you coach gray and big sexton for destroying basketball in clay county.  Coach Keith and hundreds of others frown on you two individuals.

Last note, Corbin playing best ball right now in region I think.  Someone has to beat Knox, they the two time defending champ, so you can’t over look them.  But in the end, north wins only by single digits to advance to Rupp against who knows.  Should be fun to watch.


@ Waynes ,  I have a hypothetical question for you. Let's say  Pietrowski had taken over the Clay program four or five years ago. How would you think the results would compare to what we've seen under the current coaching staff? Do you think Clay would have captured some regional titles?
#21
Yes I do.
#22
If Pietrowski had taken the coaching job Clay would have at least 1 regional title and would have been competitive every year to win region. Marcum didn't win the region every year he was coach but going into the tournament everyone knew Clay had a shot and most years made it to the finals. With a good "in game" coach like Pietrowski Clay would defiantly be a factor just like Corbin is every year with less talent than most teams in the region.
#23
(03-15-2021, 10:38 AM)cchsfan4life Wrote: If Pietrowski had taken the coaching job Clay would have at least 1 regional title and would have been competitive every year to win region.  Marcum didn't win the region every year he was coach but going into the tournament everyone knew Clay had a shot and most years made it to the finals.  With a good "in game" coach like Pietrowski Clay would defiantly be a factor just like Corbin is every year with less talent than most teams in the region.


Good points.  Pietrowski's strengths, I think, are "in game" adjustments. I think to be really successful , a coach needs to be able to assess what's happening out on the floor and make the necessary changes to turn the minuses into pluses. He learned it from playing for Hicks, who also was a really good in-game coach. I've seen P take Corbin teams that had no business being on the same floor as their opponent and either win or stay very competitive.  The top-ranked John Hardin team from a couple years ago was easily 15 -18 points better than Corbin , yet P put his kids in a position to win the game. They had the last possession with a chance to win. Same thing this year. North, at home , should win handily over Corbin. Yet, with three or so minutes left, Corbin was right there with a chance to win.

I'm curious to see what happens tonight. I look for Pietrowski to try to speed up the tempo against South Laurel. That's easier said than done because the Cards like the slower pace , running good offensive sets and sticking it to you on defense. Davis wants the game in the 50's , Pietrowski wants it in the 70's. Look for Tony to play with four guards a lot of the time and try to force South into an up and down game.


Back to Clay, don't give up on that program.  Clay has the richest tradition in the 13th , especially in the 70's, 80's, and '90' s . No one will top what Keith did . He is the John Wooden of eastern Kentucky. I have the utmost respect for Clay County basketball and I know most fans here in Corbin do.  Coach Keith forced everyone else to get better or get lost.  The region is stronger today because of Keith and Clay County. I loved what I saw from Clay against a really good Boyle team and I loved the effort the kids showed in being competitive against a really good Cov. Cath team.


I've said it before and I'll say it again, don't be surprised to see Clay give North all they want and more in the 49th district final. Clay won't be an easy game for anyone in the post-season. Don't color me shocked if they are in the title game. They may not be among the favorites but I wouldn't be shocked if they reach the finals. They are more than capable.
#24
It wouldn't surprise me much to see Clay with the W over North in district finals, that would mean North plays a district winner in first game of region. What a reward winning your district, draw North right out of the gate.haha
#25
(03-15-2021, 12:58 PM)SportyDude Wrote: It wouldn't surprise me much to see Clay with the W over North in district finals, that would mean North plays a district winner in first game of region.  What a reward winning your district, draw North right out of the gate.haha


That would definitely be the $hits, but it could happen.
#26
Two best games to decide spots to region are Bell Co/Harlan Co. and Lynn Camp/Barbourville. Harlan Co being knocked off could potential change the region outcomes, but Lynn Camp/Barbourville winner likely going to lose their next one and go home first game in Region. Other than that Clay Co and North Laurel, as well as Knox Central and Harlan Independent seem like sure likes to be in the region.
#27
(03-15-2021, 04:50 PM)fridaynightfights Wrote: Two best games to decide spots to region are Bell Co/Harlan Co. and Lynn Camp/Barbourville. Harlan Co being knocked off could potential change the region outcomes, but Lynn Camp/Barbourville winner likely going to lose their next one and go home first game in Region. Other than that Clay Co and North Laurel, as well as Knox Central and Harlan Independent seem like sure likes to be in the region.


While I  definitely have HC as a solid 10 pt favorite over Bell, I think you're right, don't sleep on these Bobcats.  They are capable of pulling off the upset. Bell played Corbin close and beat Clay but had mysterious losses to Middlesboro and Berea and a close call at home with Whitley Co. You just don't know which box of chocolates you're gonna get with this Bell team. They could pull the upset or lose by 30.

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