[mysonis55]

It is about that time folks. We should have all the necessary information to pick the favorites. I have compiled my list of teams that I feel have a chance. I will post them one at a time in order of the best chance to the least chance of the top ten. I will do this one team at a time, so please hold your replies until I post number ten.

[mysonis55]

We start with, what I would consider by far the most likely team to win it all, the Mayfield Cardinals. The Cards have been ranked number 1 from start to finish of the regular season for obvious reasons. They however have won 4 state titles in a row and have played at state for the last 7 years. The Cards returned most of their offensive line, the starting qb, starting and back up RB and 1 of their 4 recievers from last year. They also return 3 of their 4 starting linebackers and a 4th that was rotating in until injured last year. They also return 1 defensive lineman and a rotator at defensive line. They also return their 2 safeties and 1 corner. Add to that the return of their offensive coordinator from 2009 thru 2013.

The Cards are currently undefeated and have a Lit rating of 119.8. They have played a top ten 6a team, a middle of the pack 5a team and 3 3a teams prior to entering their district play. Two of those 3a teams are considered either at the top or in the mix for 3a.

Here is a look at their schedule and results

3a Fort Campbell, record 2-7, lit rating 65.6, result 56-0
5a Marshall Co, record 5-4, lit rating 88.9, result 48-7
3a Paducah Tilghman, record 4-5, lit rating 96.2, result 48-26
6a McCracken Co, record 7-2, lit rating 118.7, result 46-41
5a Graves Co, record 5-4, lit rating 92.4, result 42-14
3a Corbin, record 8-1, lit rating 114.4, result 35-34
2a Murray, record 3-6, lit rating 72.6, result 49-7
2a Ballard Mem, record 4-5, lit rating 77.1, result 52-0
2a Webster Co, record 2-7, lit rating 48.2, result 57-0

Items of interest:
The Cards have played 4 teams with a lit rating above 90 and have won them all.
The Cards are averaging a score of 48-14 playing this tough schedule.
If you take out the two tough games against top ten teams from larger classifications and they average a score of 50-8.
The Cards however should have the toughest road to a state championship as they should have to face 6-3 Butler Co in round 2 and then have to go on the road to face an 8-1 Owensboro Catholic and then go on the road to play either a 8-1 CAL or 7-2 DeSales. Talk about murderers row.

[EKUAlum05]

55...one request... as I am actually looking forward to these.

Can you please reference a different CPU Poll than the Lit Ratings though when doing these?

No offense but I have seen better rating systems floating in a toilet than the Lit Ratings. HAHA

[E's Army]

Mayfield is clearly the favorite. Their record and schedule speaks for itself.

[mysonis55]

The lit ratings actually get pretty accurate at this point in the season.

[mysonis55]

Next up, is Christian Academy of Louisville. Another high caliber team with a very good shot at winning it all.

The Centurions return a lot from their team of last year. They return the qb, who after 9 games is setting at 15th in passing for 854 yards and 9 touchdowns. They also return a D1 talent at reciever who is currently averaging 8 points per game. They also return a D1 talent at D lineman. Of course it's in his DNA as he is a transplant from the great football city of Mayfield. The Centurians have statistically the 4th best defense in 2a. They are also 4th best in 2a in scoring margin.

The Centurians average a score of 38-13 per game. If you take out their one loss, the average comes out to 41-10. This is against one of the toughest schedules in 2a.

This is a look at the schedule and results:
6a Simon Kenton 8-1, lit rating 132.1, result 14-41
6a Eastern 4-5, lit rating 89.1, result 34-11
3a Central 5-4, lit rating 96.5, result 44-15
5a Oldham Co 2-7, lit rating 70.8, result 43-7
6a North Oldham 0-10, lit rating 62.9, result 39-13
6a Meade Co 2-8, lit rating 85.3, result 38-7
2a DeSales 7-2, lit rating 103.2, result 12-7
2a Shawnee 0-8, lit rating 33.3, result 65-6
2a Washington Co, lit rating 58.8, results 50-13

The Centurians also have one of the toughest roads to the state championship. They first have to beat a very tough DeSales team in a rematch for the regionals. Then they may have to host and beat the defending 2a champions, Mayfield in back to back weeks.

[mysonis55]

Next up, the DeSales Colts. Until the semis of last years season, the Colts were the reigning kings of 2a. The Colts however, have lost a bunch from last year. Somehow, it did not translate to the defense though. The Colts are the #1 team in 2a statiscally on defense. They are also the #2 rushing defense and #6 in scoring margin. The Colts currently hold a lit rating of 103.2. They have played 4 teams with a lit rating of at least 90 and are 2-2 against those teams.

The Colts have been doing things this year by committee. That because the only notable returning star they have is Gilly Simpson.

Here is a look at their schedule:
5a Fairdale 2-7, lit rating 61.9, result 30-0
6a Butler 4-6, lit rating 87.9, result 17-0
6a Ballard 6-3, lit rating 109.0, result 10-25
1a Lou Holy Cross 6-3, lit rating 70.9, result 54-0
5a Fern Creek 8-2, lit rating 96.7, result 27-14
6a North Hardin 6-3, lit rating 96.6, result 41-14
2a Christian Acad of Lou 8-1, lit rating 105.6, result 7-12
2a Washington Co 2-7, lit rating 58.8, result 55-0
2a Shawnee 0-8, lit rating 33.3, result 33-0

The Colts have a very tall task ahead of them to return to BG this year. They first must go on the road in round 2 and win just to get back to a rematch wit CAL in the regionals. Then if they win that, they will likely host #1 Mayfield. A tall task indeed.

[mysonis55]

Next up is the first of the east reps. The Newport Cent Cath Thoroughbreds have proven they own the east side of 2a. They seem to be following. The same exact path to success they have as far back as anyone can remember. The Breds have a record of 5-4 and a lit rating 97.3. The Breds also return one of the more experienced and talented qb's in the state in 2a. Here is a look at their schedule and results:

4a Scott 2-7, lit rating 70.1, result 47-21
6a Cooper 6-4, lit rating 116.3, result 14-45
6a Campbell Co 3-6, lit rating 92.7, result 28-33
3a Belfry 8-1, lit rating 127.9, result 8-41
4a Harrison Co 5-4, lit rating 76.6, result 42-10
6a Conner 7-2, lit rating 121.0, result 14-27
2a Cov Holy Cross 6-3, lit rating 98.5, result 21-0
2a Lloyd Mem 4-5, lit rating 89.0, result 28-18
2a Newport 1-8, lit rating 34.0, result 56-14

The Breds have their usual route to state ahead of them. They will most likely have a tough game against either Danville or LCA in the semis but, will rely on their stout defense to see them through.

[64SUR]

I'm waiting on ten teams or is this the road map for mayfield.....nicker:

[mysonis55]

You will have to wait a bit for the rest. I'm in Paducah. My boy decided he needed something from the mall.

[mysonis55]

Next up is probably the most balanced opponent that the defending state champs faced in post season last year. Granted, Owensboro Catholic had to replace a lot this year including the top qb in 2a and the all everything reciever. They appear to have succeeded this year in doing that without missing a beat. OC has an 8-1 record and a lit rating of 102.3. They even managed to knock off a very tough Owensboro team this year. OC has the running back setting at #4 in all of 2a this year in Vonn Williams. Williams has rushed for 1276 yards and 19 touchdowns. They also have the #5 passing leader at qb. That being Will Warren. Warren has passed for 1578 yards and 22 touchdowns. This with only 6 interceptions. They also have 2 wideouts in the top 20 statistically. Here is a look at their schedule at results:

Evansville Mater Dei 6-4, result 29-54
6a Daviess Co 5-4, lit rating 89.5, result 41-29
5a Owensboro 7-2, lit rating 106.5, result 34-29
South Spencer, Ind 4-6, result 57-21
5a Apollo 2-7, lit rating 82.0, result 36-12
2a Butler Co 6-3, lit rating 85.6, result 42-28
2a McClean Co 6-3, lit rating 70.8, result 43-0
2a Hancock Co 3-6, lit rating 59.3, result 38-11
2a Todd Co Cent 0-9, lit rating 39.2, result 56-7

OC does have seemingly the toughest road to state in all of 2a. They first have to beat what has become a traditional 2a power of Murray. Then they most likely have to tackle the #1 team in 2a, Mayfield. If they can survive the Catdinals, they then have to travel to Louisville to most likely take on CAL or DeSales. It sounds like murderers row.

[mysonis55]

Next up is the front runners ( for now) to take on NCC in the semis for the east side. That's right the LCA Eagles. The Eagles come in with a perfect 9-0 record but, have played probably the weakest schedule of all the 2a contenders. Just listen to some of these stats. LCA is the 2a Scoring Team leader. They are also 2nd in the state in 2a in scoring margin. They also have a qb that statistically #8 in passing with 1314 yards and 16 touchdowns with only 1 interception. They also have the #7 rushing leader in Dillon Wheatley. Wheatley has rushed for 1148 yards and 18 touchdowns. This is a look at their schedule and the results:

1a Williamsburg 5-4, lit rating 76.5, result 32-22
1a Ky Country Day 7-2, lit rating 77.2, result 56-20
2a Green Co 1-8, lit rating 53.2, result 48-8
3a Estill Co 7-3, lit rating 70.2, result 55-22
2a Walton Verona 6-4, lit rating 70.6, result 51-9
1a Fairview 3-5, lit rating 64.9, result 64-16
2a Middlesboro 1-8, lit rating 56.4, result 49-6
2a Somerset 5-4, lit rating 87.8, result 41-28
2a Danville 7-2, lit rating 104.6, result 42-40

It should be a tough road for LCA to get to state. They will first have to beat Danville for a second time and then beat the kings of the east, NCC.

[mysonis55]

Next up is the preseason favorite to represent the east, Danville. The Ads are 7-2 with a lit rating of 104.6. They have played 4 teams with a lit rating of at least 90 and have gone 2-2 against those 4 teams. The Ads like to air out the ball this year. They have the qb that is statistically #1 in 2a, Zach Dampier. Dampier has passed for 2210 yards, 28 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. They also have 2 recievers ranked in the top ten of 2a statistically. This is a look at their schedule and results:

3a Larue Co 4-5, lit rating 68.2, result 47-13
5a Southwestern 7-2, lit rating 108.1, result 35-34
3a Boyle Co 5-4, lit rating 103.0, result 43-15
3a Corbin 8-1, lit rating 114.4, result 7-28
2a Green Co 1-8, lit rating 53.2, result 62-0
1a Campbellsville 3-6, lit rating 57.9, result 42-6
2a Somerset 5-4, lit rating 87.8, result 25-7
2a Middlesboro 1-8, lit rating 56.4, result 47-14
2a LCA 9-0, lit rating 103.2, result 40-42

The Ads tough road to state includes having to beat the Eagles in a rematch and the the Thoroughbreds in back to back weeks.

[mysonis55]

In 8th place is another west team that could surprise some people. That's right, Cov Holy Cross. Holy Cross comes in at 6-3 with a lit rating of 98.5. They have played 2 teams with a lit rating of at least 90 and are 0-2 against them. They have a heavy hitter at RB. Derrick Barnes has rushed for 1110 yards and 16 touchdowns. He averages 11.3 points per game. They also apparently have recently changed up their offense to give people to think about going into the playoffs.

Here is a look at their schedule and results:

4a Holmes 2-7, lit rating 64.6, result 42-7
2a Walton Verona 6-4, lit rating 70.6, result 44-0
Taft, Oh result 19-27
4a Scott 2-7, lit rating 70.1, result 27-0
1a Beechwood 8-1, lit rating 97.1, result 33-40
1a Bethlehem 6-3, lit rating 62.2, result 26-0
2a NCC 5-4, lit rating 97.3, result 0-21
2a Newport 1-8, lit rating 34.0, result 56-0
2a Lloyd Mem 4-5, lit rating 89.0, result 42-0

In order for HC to get to state they must first reverse a 21-0 whipping from the kings of the east.

[mysonis55]

Next up is probably one of the most unlikely of contenders to make the trip to BG. Leslie Co has a history of running ram shod through their week regular season schedule to see a quick exit from the playoffs. This year would appear to be much of the same as they come in at 8-1 but only have a lit rating of 73.2. They haven't played a single team with a lit rating of 90 or above but yet, have managed to find a way to lose a game this year. They also have a tough road when you consider the likelihood of them beating a Danville team followed by LCA and then NCC. Another murderers row.

This is a look at their schedule and results:
3a Maggoffin Co 2-7, lit rating 31.2, result 42-0
3a Knott Co Cent 5-4, lit rating 45.0, result 35-0
1a Williamsburg 5-4, lit rating 76.5, result 16-13
5a So Laurel 4-5, lit rating 80.3, result 18-22
2a Betsy Ln 1-9, lit rating 7.9, result 56-16
2a Allen Cent 7-2, lit rating 54.9, result 26-8
2a Prestonburg 6-3, lit rating 64.4, result 41-22
2a Shelby Valley 3-6, lit rating 49.6, result 49-21
2a E Ridge 3-7, lit rating 32.3, result 47-12

This ones a long shot. But most at this point are.

[mysonis55]

Here is the last of my 10 choices. The Glasgow Scotties. They certainly have a more powerful team than Leslie Co but, also play on the much tougher side of the state in 2a. The Scotties come in at 7-1 with a lit rating of 97.6. They have played only 1 team with a lit rating of at least 90 and that was their sole loss. The Scotties appear to have a good offense and a defense that can help win games. They average a score of 41-16. Only 3 teams have managed to score more than 2 touchdowns on them all year.

Here is schedule and results:
1a Campbellsville 3-6, lit rating 57.9, result 60-14
5a Barren Co 1-8, lit rating 53.9, result 49-12
4a Allen Co Scott 4-5, lit rating 89.7
4a Warren East 3-7, lit rating 81.8, result 34-28
5a Greenwood 7-2, lit rating 102.6, result 12-45
2a Green Co 1-8, lit rating 53.2, result 56-6
2a Monroe Co 3-6, lit rating 66.8, result 56-0
2a Metcalfe Co 6-3, lit rating 71.3, result 40-0

A pretty good team to finish this off with but, they would literally have to play over their heads 3 weeks in a row just to get to BG.

[mysonis55]

So, there you have it. Let me know what you think. Even you 64. I know you are gonna start screaming for you LC and LCA teams.

[EKUAlum05]

Good job 55

Holy Cross made a couple tweaks after that NewCath game and I am curious to see if that helps them close that gap on the Breds

Lloyd looks like a team that is falling fast

[I Rule The World]

Somerset... Played Danville and LCA very close this year.. Have very explosive players and are well coached...

[killbilly usmc]

You must be really bored. You need a hobby