[mysonis55]

I was just setting around today with a little time on my hands and decided to see what the numbers could tell me on the four remaing 2a teams in the west. This is what I found. I hope you like it.

First, according to the latest Lit ratings it goes in order of DeSales, CAL, Mayfield and then next out of these four is Owensboro Cath. I find that amusing since CAL beat DeSales but, Lit seems more screwy this year than in the past. This isn't the only case this year of a team that beat a team being ranked below that team.

Here are these teams opponents rankings in order of average Lit score. That is, I averaged all the teams each played in their season this far.

According to Lit CAL has played the tougher schedule with it opponents average lit score being 84.5. They are 10-2 with that schedule.

DeSales has played the next toughest schedule according to lit, with its opponents average lit score being 83.1. They also have gone 10-2 against that schedule.

Mayfield would be next on the list. Their opponents have an average lit rating of 80.9. They have gone 11-1 against that schedule.

Owensboro Cath comes in down the list a bit. Their opponents average lit rating is 75.9. They have gone 10-2 against that schedule.

Now if you are a wins versus losses type of person, this is how it shapes up. It really for me this year makes a little more sense since the computer is giving 6a teams with a 3-9 record a 80 plus average on lit.

Mayfield's opponents record is 70-66. DeSales is next at 68-71. They are followed by CAL at 64-70. Then would be OC at 60-75.

I really think the issue this year with Lit is they are giving way too much credit to 6a teams just because of the schedule they play. When you have Butler at 3-9 on the year with a rating of 81.9, Ballard with a record of 6-5 and a rating of 102.8. Then you drop just one class and Fern Creek is 11-1 and only at 108.1. Just makes you think.

[EKUAlum05]

We have essentially a mini-playoff going on in the West

4 seed vs 1 seed
3 seed vs. 2 seed

Last round the 4 seed (OCath) played the toughest 2nd Round opponent (Murray). It was essentially a 4 vs. 5 game

Mayfield played the weakest team (Butler Co) 1 vs. 8

CAL had the 2nd weakest team (Glasgow) 2 vs. 7

DeSales had what would essentially be the 6 seed (Monroe Co)

I honestly think this is the best OCath team since the early 2000's and just have this strange suspicion Mayfield isn't exactly in peak form. I still can;'t bring myself to pick the upset but think it might be a very fun game.

CAL/DeSales is a tossup for sure. I just think CAL finally breaks that streak of winning in the regular season and losing in the Playoffs.

[64SUR]

102.8 rating for Ballard is awful high for a 6-5 team.....Just saying it helps DeSales rating big time. :popcorn:

[E's Army]

2A west is not for the faint of heart. 4 very good teams.

[mysonis55]

I think the Lit computer gives you an extra 10 points automatically if you are from Louisville.

[E's Army]

Computer ratings are less accurate than comparing scores