[birdman44]

If we went back to four classes, BG would definitely be 4A and Highlands would definitely not.

Why? Thats how it was before?

[RunItUpTheGut]

True, you never know unless they play. Scrimmages dont really count either. The coaches dont really treat it like a game so it shouldnt be factored. It comes down to game day. two teams show up one wins and thats that ... the only proof.

Please go back to a 4A system. I liked it when BG was in the same class as Highlands. Two top 5 KY teams going at it in the state championship. BG was always that team on the other side of the bracket that you payed attention to. I think the only time the two teams have played has been in the state championship?

Why? Thats how it was before?

Bowling Green now has over 1200 students, and are actually the next school ahead of Whitley in enrollment numbers now by 6 kids. Almost 1300 are enrolled at BG, and that makes them a 4A schools easily in a 4 class system.
Highlands has 888. That should be 3A, but they could flirt with 2A if there numbers drop any.
My point is BG would definitely be 4A, and we all know Highlands isnt going to jump to 4A and deal with Trinity year in and year out, not that the KHSAA would even let them.

And just for fun, there were around 54 or 55 teams in 4A when there were four classes.
Only 49 schools are bigger than BG at the moment.
http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/201...enroll.pdf

[birdman44]

it would be cool if there was just 2 state champions. put 1 2 and 3 together and 4 5 and 6 together. balla a$$ playoffs/state games!

[DragonFire]

Bowling Green now has over 1200 students, and are actually the next school ahead of Whitley in enrollment numbers now by 6 kids. Almost 1300 are enrolled at BG, and that makes them a 4A schools easily in a 4 class system.
Highlands has 888. That should be 3A, but they could flirt with 2A if there numbers drop any.
My point is BG would definitely be 4A, and we all know Highlands isnt going to jump to 4A and deal with Trinity year in and year out, not that the KHSAA would even let them.

And just for fun, there were around 54 or 55 teams in 4A when there were four classes.
Only 49 schools are bigger than BG at the moment.
http://khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/201...enroll.pdf

BG actually has 1,149 students based on that report.

The alignments are determined by male enrollment only. Quite a few schools that are smaller by total enrollment have more male enrollment than BG while only Atherton has more total enrollment than them but less males. BG is the 63rd largest school by male enrollment (projecting McCracken County as ahead of them which they will be). They'd be somewhere around 25-30 males below the 4A level. If you went with the two year combined male enrollment average that the KHSAA uses, they'd rate as the sixth largest 3A school assuming 55 in each class except 1A having 56. Highlands would be at the low end of that class, but comfortably in it (15th smallest).

Also, depending on how the non-resident agreement situation here in Bowling Green shakes out (where the county system is lowering the cap on the amount of students that can transfer out of district to the city), we may have seen BG's enrollment peak.

[RunItUpTheGut]

BG actually has 1,149 students based on that report.

The alignments are determined by male enrollment only. Quite a few schools that are smaller by total enrollment have more male enrollment than BG while only Atherton has more total enrollment than them but less males. BG is the 63rd largest school by male enrollment (projecting McCracken County as ahead of them which they will be). They'd be somewhere around 25-30 males below the 4A level. If you went with the two year combined male enrollment average that the KHSAA uses, they'd rate as the sixth largest 3A school assuming 55 in each class except 1A having 56. Highlands would be at the low end of that class, but comfortably in it (15th smallest).

Also, depending on how the non-resident agreement situation here in Bowling Green shakes out (where the county system is lowering the cap on the amount of students that can transfer out of district to the city), we may have seen BG's enrollment peak.

It would be close, but i think BG would be 4A all day.
BG is inly going to grow in male enrollments.

[adopted purple]

It would be close, but i think BG would be 4A all day.
BG is inly going to grow in male enrollments.

The Warren County School Board had an agreement with the city school board to allow 850 county students to attend city schools. They cut that amount to 664 a few months ago. The city school board and some parents are suing the Warren County School Board. If they are not successful, it looks like Bowling Green City Schools will not be growing anytime soon. It's a crazy situation and I hope it gets worked out soon.

[DragonFire]

It would be close, but i think BG would be 4A all day.
BG is inly going to grow in male enrollments.

BG actually has less males now than they did in the 2006/2007 school year. Last year was a peak in the data we have available (since 10/11 is curiously missing) but 4 of the 6 years we have available from the start of 06/07 to now BG has bounced between 559 males to 582. After a huge jump they made in the middle of the 2000s, they've only trickled in their increases. The cutoff for a mythical 4A from the 2012-13 numbers (which will be part of the actual next alignment along with 2013-14) is Lincoln County with 591. BG had 566 males in 12-13, meaning if Lincoln County stayed flat BG would have to enroll 616. 591 would be more males than BG has had since the mid-1980's let alone 616. BG would no way be 4A in a 4 class alignment for the 2015 season. If they grew enough, maybe they'd have a shot in 2019.

It's all beside the point of course since the four class system is probably dead and buried. If I didn't have such a fascination in the alignment and numbers game I probably wouldn't have stuck my nose in.

For what it's worth, it would take a similar leap by the teams behind Bowling Green to push them down, but they'd be the 9th smallest school in 5A if the next alignment were based only on the 2012-13 enrollment. If the Warren County School Board continues to lower the number of the cap mentioned by Adopted Purple each year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that come the 2019 alignment (if they continue 4 year alignments) that Bowling Green could be in 4A - in a six class system.

Also worth noting, Covington Catholic would be the smallest 5A school based on 2012-13 numbers. They would have a defined NKY district with Conner, Cooper, and Grant County. But there would also be one in 4A with Harrison County, Highlands, Holmes, and Scott close enough to each other. Highlands may or may not seek a jump to 5A to maintain that rivalry with CovCath, and if going by the rules that playing up is only for geographic purposes, may not be allowed regardless.

[RunItUpTheGut]

BG actually has less males now than they did in the 2006/2007 school year. Last year was a peak in the data we have available (since 10/11 is curiously missing) but 4 of the 6 years we have available from the start of 06/07 to now BG has bounced between 559 males to 582. After a huge jump they made in the middle of the 2000s, they've only trickled in their increases. The cutoff for a mythical 4A from the 2012-13 numbers (which will be part of the actual next alignment along with 2013-14) is Lincoln County with 591. BG had 566 males in 12-13, meaning if Lincoln County stayed flat BG would have to enroll 616. 591 would be more males than BG has had since the mid-1980's let alone 616. BG would no way be 4A in a 4 class alignment for the 2015 season. If they grew enough, maybe they'd have a shot in 2019.

It's all beside the point of course since the four class system is probably dead and buried. If I didn't have such a fascination in the alignment and numbers game I probably wouldn't have stuck my nose in.

For what it's worth, it would take a similar leap by the teams behind Bowling Green to push them down, but they'd be the 9th smallest school in 5A if the next alignment were based only on the 2012-13 enrollment. If the Warren County School Board continues to lower the number of the cap mentioned by Adopted Purple each year, it's not out of the realm of possibility that come the 2019 alignment (if they continue 4 year alignments) that Bowling Green could be in 4A - in a six class system.

Also worth noting, Covington Catholic would be the smallest 5A school based on 2012-13 numbers. They would have a defined NKY district with Conner, Cooper, and Grant County. But there would also be one in 4A with Harrison County, Highlands, Holmes, and Scott close enough to each other. Highlands may or may not seek a jump to 5A to maintain that rivalry with CovCath, and if going by the rules that playing up is only for geographic purposes, may not be allowed regardless.

Good research.
Im curious to see what will be happening in the next alignment.
It seems a lot of schools are either consolidating or losing number, or largely gaining numbers.
Im curious to see where some of these borderline schools would fall.
If things keep pace in 5A i wouldnt be surprised to see Perry County and Letcher County fall to 4A. Talk about a big time mess of figuring out new districts. Harlan and Whitley County would still be 5A, and my guess is that they would move into a district with North and South Laurel while the Pulaski County schools, along with Madison Southern and Lincoln County would remain in the same district.

There are a few teams around this are that will eventually be 5A if there numbers keep growing like they have such as Knox Central.

It will be an interesting alignment.

[DragonFire]

Good research.
Im curious to see what will be happening in the next alignment.
It seems a lot of schools are either consolidating or losing number, or largely gaining numbers.
Im curious to see where some of these borderline schools would fall.
If things keep pace in 5A i wouldnt be surprised to see Perry County and Letcher County fall to 4A. Talk about a big time mess of figuring out new districts. Harlan and Whitley County would still be 5A, and my guess is that they would move into a district with North and South Laurel while the Pulaski County schools, along with Madison Southern and Lincoln County would remain in the same district.

There are a few teams around this are that will eventually be 5A if there numbers keep growing like they have such as Knox Central.

It will be an interesting alignment.

Letcher County Central and Perry County Central would both need a large bump to stay in 5A. They'd be the 10th & 11th largest in 4A, respectively 31 and 36 males below CovCath. That's a lot of schools to jump to stay up. Your read on what that would mean for those districts is exactly what I had in my mockup. Knox Central is a team that if it keeps growing could work their way into 5A by 2019.

Some names that are in significant danger of dropping to 4A in the next alignment are John Hardin and Warren Central. Warren Central had 512 males this time around, and would be the 6th largest 4A school. It's not out of the realm of possibility they could remain in 5A, but they'd need a bump. John Hardin had 492 males this year, 12th largest in what would be 4A. So they'll basically be 4A unless they jump by around 70 males next year.

What that means (to tie it into the team that this thread is actually about) is that if nothing changes before the realignment, Bowling Green could find itself even more set in 5A than they already are. CovCath potentially moving up is about the only possible negative that could occur. It's entirely possible Christian County will be the only team with a pulse to oppose the Purples in that alignment.

If CovCath remains in 4A, that class will be ridiculous.

[RunItUpTheGut]

Letcher County Central and Perry County Central would both need a large bump to stay in 5A. They'd be the 10th & 11th largest in 4A, respectively 31 and 36 males below CovCath. That's a lot of schools to jump to stay up. Your read on what that would mean for those districts is exactly what I had in my mockup. Knox Central is a team that if it keeps growing could work their way into 5A by 2019.

Some names that are in significant danger of dropping to 4A in the next alignment are John Hardin and Warren Central. Warren Central had 512 males this time around, and would be the 6th largest 4A school. It's not out of the realm of possibility they could remain in 5A, but they'd need a bump. John Hardin had 492 males this year, 12th largest in what would be 4A. So they'll basically be 4A unless they jump by around 70 males next year.

What that means (to tie it into the team that this thread is actually about) is that if nothing changes before the realignment, Bowling Green could find itself even more set in 5A than they already are. CovCath potentially moving up is about the only possible negative that could occur. It's entirely possible Christian County will be the only team with a pulse to oppose the Purples in that alignment.

If CovCath remains in 4A, that class will be ridiculous.

I completely agree with you on that.
Ive been thinking for a while now about how the far west of the state could really mix the alignments up.
The districts are so thin in the west in some classes, that dropping one of those teams dropping to 4A from 5A could mean a long district drive for some teams out of the east. If it comes down to it, the KHSAA could let some teams stay in 4A or 5A if they show a geographical hardship to move classes, but just as you stated, some teams are already close to missing the boat.

If both 1A and 6A stay at 32 teams then the rest of the teams in 2A threw 5A will be split up accordingly, but i think were either going to see a lot more members in a couple of those classes than the other two mainly due to geography reasons instead of number reasons.

Another interesting tidbit is that North Laurel, if im not mistaken already pretty much has 6A numbers....

[DragonFire]

I completely agree with you on that.
Ive been thinking for a while now about how the far west of the state could really mix the alignments up.
The districts are so thin in the west in some classes, that dropping one of those teams dropping to 4A from 5A could mean a long district drive for some teams out of the east. If it comes down to it, the KHSAA could let some teams stay in 4A or 5A if they show a geographical hardship to move classes, but just as you stated, some teams are already close to missing the boat.

If both 1A and 6A stay at 32 teams then the rest of the teams in 2A threw 5A will be split up accordingly, but i think were either going to see a lot more members in a couple of those classes than the other two mainly due to geography reasons instead of number reasons.

Another interesting tidbit is that North Laurel, if im not mistaken already pretty much has 6A numbers....

4A in the west projects to be awful, especially the far west. Currently Calloway County is on an island with Hopkins County Central the closest team. Then you get the Bowling Green cluster with Allen County-Scottsville, Franklin-Simpson, South Warren (likely to move up), Warren Central, and Warren East. If Calloway and Hopkins County stick, you're probably looking at AC/S and Franklin-Simpson being in that district. I could see Calloway County and Hopkins County Central petitioning to play up, but as you'll see below, that would bloat an already large contingent of teams in the 5A west. You'd probably have a seven team 5A District 1 if each played up. Calloway would probably be a slam dunk to be accepted. Paducah Tilghman is in shouting distance of 4A. If enough people moved over there from the former McCracken schools then they just might makeit, but no other team is close enough to alleviate the situation.

5A in the west will be a little awkward, but they're actually going to be pretty flush with teams. Currently, all of these teams are projected at 5A based on 12/13 numbers:

-Christian County, Graves County, Hopkinsville, Logan County, Madisonville-North Hopkins, Marshall County
-Apollo, Bowling Green, Greenwood, Ohio County, Owensboro

And South Warren will almost certainly rise to join them.

North Laurel is basically a tipping point out east. It would be to the advantage of everyone if they didn't make it to 6A, because if they did, it really throws a wrench in alignments.

North Laurel is tied with Graves County for what would be the largest 5A school with 710 males. They're actually both tied for #32 in the 2012-13 enrollment numbers which would in in 6A, but McCracken County will be way above that level. Muhlenberg County is the lowest potential 6A school with 721, and that grew from 710 the previous year. Both Graves County and North Laurel had large jumps from 2011-12 (31 & 36 respectively), so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could jump enough to overtake them. The departing North Laurel senior class had an astounding 53 less males than the junior class, and the freshman class was massive at 241 males. They had a very high erosion rate from year to year (each class dropped by at least 23 males and 2 of the 3 classes dropped by 39+), but if they retain better they just might be in 6A.

[RunItUpTheGut]

^
Good point on the North discussion.
The way i see it, nobody cares if there gonna have 6A numbers as long as they keep losing.
Everybody will be fine with until they start to win some ball games and youll hear complaining, but i dont care if they get 200 more kids, it would be a huge mess to send them into a 6A district. There district games would easily be an hour away and more for other games.
I believe this is where the geography plays a role.