[mr.charlie hustle]

Any stats. out there on this game? Expected a higher run count in this one but Lawrence did not produce any runs and the Pirates just had 5. If the big T pitched for Belfry perhaps that accounts for the goose egg.Expected Belfry to be much stronger with the bat. They are a very capable crew. Wonder how the runs were generated. The end of the season is generally time for the Pirates. As I remember last year the Pirates gave a much stronger Dawg crew fits at the Regional , a one run affair I believe that could have gone either way.

[Panther Thunder]

Any stats. out there on this game? Expected a higher run count in this one but Lawrence did not produce any runs and the Pirates just had 5. If the big T pitched for Belfry perhaps that accounts for the goose egg.Expected Belfry to be much stronger with the bat. They are a very capable crew. Wonder how the runs were generated. The end of the season is generally time for the Pirates. As I remember last year the Pirates gave a much stronger Dawg crew fits at the Regional , a one run affair I believe that could have gone either way.

Pikeville has scored 185 in 29 games (6.3 avg). Belfry has scored 186 in 30 games (6.2 avg).

Neither team is exactly an offensive juggernaut. And if Pikeville is averaging more, it is not indicative of a good offense, because we all know how much has been discussed about PHS' lack of offense. The schedules are comparable, if anything maybe Belfry's is minimally tougher.

The only team I could see scoring their way would be JC (7.2 avg) or Prestonsburg (7.4 avg). But still, I believe this region will be won with pitching and defense.

[mr.charlie hustle]

Pikeville has scored 185 in 29 games (6.3 avg). Belfry has scored 186 in 30 games (6.2 avg).

Neither team is exactly an offensive juggernaut. And if Pikeville is averaging more, it is not indicative of a good offense, because we all know how much has been discussed about PHS' lack of offense. The schedules are comparable, if anything maybe Belfry's is minimally tougher.

The only team I could see scoring their way would be JC (7.2 avg) or Prestonsburg (7.4 avg). But still, I believe this region will be won with pitching and defense.

Interesting Stat. observation PT. I think that Lawrence is 131 for 32 games at I believe 4.09. Thats a bit decieving in that 31 of those runs came in the series with Sheldon Clark and they had 9 games at 1or less runs and 10 games in the 2-3 range. If my math is correct they have had 19 games below their average. Check my math, not my forte. I just thought there would have been more runs scored in this game. I would have thought something like 8 or 9. Guess averages kinda go out the window.

[Panther Thunder]

Interesting Stat. observation PT. I think that Lawrence is 131 for 32 games at I believe 4.09. Thats a bit decieving in that 31 of those runs came in the series with Sheldon Clark and they had 9 games at 1or less runs and 10 games in the 2-3 range. If my math is correct they have had 19 games below their average. Check my math, not my forte. I just thought there would have been more runs scored in this game. I would have thought something like 8 or 9. Guess averages kinda go out the window.

You run in to irregularities when level of competition (in this case pitching) is either increased or decreased. The more towards the average the pitcher and defense, the more you will see the number you are used to seeing. When you face below average it goes up, above average it goes down. Simple math (Which is why you can't really throw out the SC games). If you have the upper echelon competition to counter it (your 0 run outputs) it all evens out.

Take facing a Tyler Williams versus facing a guy with a 9.00 ERA. Those two games will usually even out to basically facing two guys throwing 3.50 ERAs. Then when you do face the guys throwing a 3.50, it makes sense to see 4 runs on the board for LC.

All of that basically means nothing when you face really good competition in terms of output, but it can indicate an increased or decreased ability/likelihood to produce more valuable runs (I.E. The 3-5 runs you may need to beat a Williams, Blanton, Hamilton, Stapleton, etc...). Meaning a team averaging 6.2 is more likely to find a way to manufacture 3-5 against really good competition on a given night than a team averaging 4.0. It would not be the mean, but more of the maximum on the range. On 7 out of 10 nights, you will not score 5 in this region off of that caliber pitching, but for 2-3 nights you will see irregularities. A great example being last years Region Championship. No one in their right mind would have predicted a 9-6 score, but the maximum happened to show up that night.

All of this theory is predicated on the assumption that schedules are comparable (to a reasonable extent) in terms of Strength of Schedule. For example, JC's 7.2 is more impressive than East Ridge's 7.29 because of the tougher schedule than ER has played. Not that that fact is exactly hard to realize. But, as for Prestonsburg and JC they are about equally impressive considering the similar SOS.

If anything is unclear, I apologize. I kind of confused myself at times and forgot where I was going with the argument. The main idea I have is that the only thing these averages count for in post season play with be the likelihood of the team to score more VALUABLE (Runs off tougher pitching, being 3 off good pitching is more impressive than 6 off average) runs in postseason play. And perception is not always reality, IMO. Pikeville is perceived by many to be weak offensively where as Belfry was perceived to be returning a lot of offense. The reality for both is somewhere in between probably. Neither is great or horrible. Probably just average (In relative terms).

In tonight's case, Belfry did not reach their average, but were pretty close. A number of factors could have cause it to hit the average very easily. Lawrence County did not come close to their average, but faced higher quality pitching. While, this is the case, I still believe in terms of numbers, for LC this was an irregularity. Normally you could count on 1 or 2 runs against high quality pitching as LC has only been shut out 3 times this season ( <10% of the time = irregular, also could be referred to as the minimum on the range).

[mr.charlie hustle]

You run in to irregularities when level of competition (in this case pitching) is either increased or decreased. The more towards the average the pitcher and defense, the more you will see the number you are used to seeing. When you face below average it goes up, above average it goes down. Simple math (Which is why you can't really throw out the SC games). If you have the upper echelon competition to counter it (your 0 run outputs) it all evens out.

Take facing a Tyler Williams versus facing a guy with a 9.00 ERA. Those two games will usually even out to basically facing two guys throwing 3.50 ERAs. Then when you do face the guys throwing a 3.50, it makes sense to see 4 runs on the board for LC.

All of that basically means nothing when you face really good competition in terms of output, but it can indicate an increased or decreased ability/likelihood to produce more valuable runs (I.E. The 3-5 runs you may need to beat a Williams, Blanton, Hamilton, Stapleton, etc...). Meaning a team averaging 6.2 is more likely to find a way to manufacture 3-5 against really good competition on a given night than a team averaging 4.0. It would not be the mean, but more of the maximum on the range. On 7 out of 10 nights, you will not score 5 in this region off of that caliber pitching, but for 2-3 nights you will see irregularities. A great example being last years Region Championship. No one in their right mind would have predicted a 9-6 score, but the maximum happened to show up that night.

All of this theory is predicated on the assumption that schedules are comparable (to a reasonable extent) in terms of Strength of Schedule. For example, JC's 7.2 is more impressive than East Ridge's 7.29 because of the tougher schedule than ER has played. Not that that fact is exactly hard to realize. But, as for Prestonsburg and JC they are about equally impressive considering the similar SOS.

If anything is unclear, I apologize. I kind of confused myself at times and forgot where I was going with the argument. The main idea I have is that the only thing these averages count for in post season play with be the likelihood of the team to score more VALUABLE (Runs off tougher pitching, being 3 off good pitching is more impressive than 6 off average) runs in postseason play. And perception is not always reality, IMO. Pikeville is perceived by many to be weak offensively where as Belfry was perceived to be returning a lot of offense. The reality for both is somewhere in between probably. Neither is great or horrible. Probably just average (In relative terms).

In tonight's case, Belfry did not reach their average, but were pretty close. A number of factors could have cause it to hit the average very easily. Lawrence County did not come close to their average, but faced higher quality pitching. While, this is the case, I still believe in terms of numbers, for LC this was an irregularity. Normally you could count on 1 or 2 runs against high quality pitching as LC has only been shut out 3 times this season ( <10% of the time = irregular, also could be referred to as the minimum on the range).

Nice piece of statistical analysis I suppose PT. Kind of lost me in the mid-range. Earlier I was interested in the baseball stats,you know , BB,SO, E's,H and that kind of stuff. Having a consistant low with only an occassional spike, does I suppose present with interesting research questions. Statistical Research Methods was never my thing but never the less critical. Have a good District and we will see ya at the "District". Be rooting for the Tigers and the 6.

[lchsalumnus]

Be rooting for the Tigers and the 6.

you just do that mr. hustle.

[Belfry0304]

Belfry has won 14 of their last 15, great time to get hot heading into the postseason. Not sure who pitched last night or who will go tonight against Prestonsburg. Hopefully the hot streak continues not just tonight but on through region. Good job, Pirates!

[mr.charlie hustle]

you just do that mr. hustle.

Will do alum. Got to go for the homies you know. Me you and everybody else.:biggrin:

[mr.charlie hustle]

Belfry has won 14 of their last 15, great time to get hot heading into the postseason. Not sure who pitched last night or who will go tonight against Prestonsburg. Hopefully the hot streak continues not just tonight but on through region. Good job, Pirates!

Congrats Pirates and Tyler Williams former team mate and generally good guy,on your trip through the district.

[Panther Thunder]

Nice piece of statistical analysis I suppose PT. Kind of lost me in the mid-range. Earlier I was interested in the baseball stats,you know , BB,SO, E's,H and that kind of stuff. Having a consistant low with only an occassional spike, does I suppose present with interesting research questions. Statistical Research Methods was never my thing but never the less critical. Have a good District and we will see ya at the "District". Be rooting for the Tigers and the 6.

I hope he does very well!

[Eagle Pride 90`]

you just do that mr. hustle.

Who would you have him root for?