[EKUAlum05]

Can they not go ahead and get as much done as possible so that blueprints, design, can be done. They can say it will take 3 years to build, so they will start construction in 2011, and be done by2014. That way they might go ahead and buy out the one year contract left on the lease?

Wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too many variables in place right now to do as you said. When it comes to construction, design is a very precise thing. First and foremost a budget must be set. Forecasting a budget for a project not scheduled to be completed until 6 years later, in this economy, is a VERY dangerous act. The estimate for labor, the bill of material, and comissioning could be 2 to 3 times the cost it would be right now, or it could be 2 to 3 times less.

Additionally, architects and engineers would be very hesitant to move forward this early as well for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the trend in current commerical construction is to "Green Up" a project as much as possible, meaning, try to utilize energy efficiency and the latest technologies. The issue with that is that the recent "Green" boom is producing technology that evolving at an uncomprehendable rate. If an engineer or architect were to specify the job right now, by the time construction began the technologies used would be completely outdated . This is not only true for "Green" projects, but for any project. Additionally, in 6 years construction technologies may have advanced so far that what was thought to take 3 years to construct, may only take 2. UK would be up in arms if they had an arena complete for an entire year as it just sat there not being used. The price to buyout the final year would be elevated, and UK would be afraid to spurn the City of Lexington for many political reasons.

I work in the realm of commercial construction and design and architects and engineers are an interesting kind of monster. For them to invest so much time in a project they may have no control over the budgetary cost and a project they may have to completely redesign would throw some serious red flags up.

With that said, what will probably happen is in about 2011 you will start seeing some serious inquiries into site location and inquiries to engineers and architects to see who will be willing to come on board. UK won't wait until the lease is up to start the project, they will time it to correlate being open when Rupp's lease is up. BUT, don't think for a second that UK will risk designing this thing this early just so they can compete with UL for who has the prettiest arena.