[raiderwave]

Looking at this next game purely in a statistical manner. No leaning either way, just pure numbers.....

Belfry has scored 567 points and allowed 128 points.
Breathitt has scored 487 points and allowed 207 points.

Belfry averages 43.6 per game, Breathitt 37.5

Belfry allows an average of 9.8 per game, Breathitt 15.9

Belfry's per game scoring is 6.1 points higher, while allowing 6.1 fewer points. Add those together and you get 12.2. Or, to get that same number, take each teams averages and subtract (example 43.6 minus 9.8 = 33.8. 37.5 minus 15.9 = 21.6. Then, 33.8 minus 21.6 = 12.2)

Either way, Belfry on average scores more and allows less.

Now look at common opponents: Shelby Valley and Johnson Central.

Belfry beat both (SV 47-6, JC 21-13) Breathitt split (SV 49-22, JC 14-26)

Total points for both: Belfry 68, opponents 19. Breathitt 63, opponents 48.

This shows a 5 point difference on offense, which is similar to the 6.1 for the whole season. Where there is a difference is on defense, where Breathitt allowed 29 more points to common opponents.

Both of Breathitt's common games were at home. Belfry's win over JC was on the road. Belfry beat SV by 41, Breathitt beat them by 27, a difference of 14. I know you cannot compare a loss to a win point-wise, but in the JC game Belfry allowed JC 13 points, Breathitt allowed them 26, a difference of 13 points there.

So in these type of comparisons, Belfry seems to be anywhere from a 12.2 to a 14-point favorite. And since Breathitt lost at home to a team Belfry beat on the road, I'd have to think there is some advantage to Belfry playing at home.

What I can glean from all of this is if both teams play as they have all year, Belfry wins going away by at least 2 TDs. Statistically, it would take Breathitt playing probably the best game of their entire year to win this game, but only if Belfry plays less than their average game. In my mind, entering this game Breathitt is a 14 point underdog, minimum.

I give Belfry 3 more above the 14 for playing at home. My prediction is Belfry 31, Breathitt 14........Which is exactly 1/2 the score from last year's game, huh?

I understand comparing scores, but if you really want to do that, they share a third common opponent in Lawrence County. Belfry won that game 20-13, Breathitt beat Lawrence 37-14. I just believe you can't compare scores. Anything can happen in the playoffs... Should be a really good game.