[jammin' jamey]

I will disagree with you about Bronson Arroyo, I think he is still a solid #2 starter for the Reds. His ERA was 4.23 this year, not great, but only a half a run worse than Harang's. Don't be fooled by his 9-15 record this year, he was a victim of atrocious run support most games he pitched and had several more games blown by the bullpen. Guess who led the Reds in 'quality starts' this year? Nope, not Harang, it was Arroyo. Overall, Harang had the better year, but Arroyo wasn't nearly as bad as his record would indicate. And this comes from someone who watched almost all of the Reds games on TV this season, at least until the bottom fell out the last week or so.

I will also disagree about Hopper. He is a fine player, and will make an excellent fourth outfielder, but I don't see him starting over Josh Hamilton. I agree that they will pick up Dunn's option for LF, and right will be manned by either Griffey (if he isn't traded) or Jay Bruce (if he is). No room for Hopper to start, unless someone is injured. I also think Freel will almost certainly be traded, as there is really no place to play him. The emergence of Hopper makes this deal almost a slam dunk.

As for Keppinger, I think he will be the starting SS only if Gonzo is traded. I actually hope you are right on this one, because I like Kepp and I don't think the club will miss Gonzalez too much. If we can get a decent pitcher for Gonzo, go for it.

I think the Reds will shop David Ross, but I doubt anyone will offer much in return, so he will probably be back. Gonzo and Freel should bring some good return, however. I read that we hold an option on Hatteberg, and if we can exercise the option then trade him for pitching, go for it. I do not want to see Votto traded.

My last comment is about someone you didn't mention, but I believe Johnny Cueto will get a long look in the spring to make the rotation. If we don't land a good starter via trade, we may very well see a rotation of Harang/Arroyo/Bailey/Cueto/Belisle next year. Can't say that I would have a problem with that group, even Beslisle makes for a serviceable fifth starter.

You're right about Arroyo getting bad run support and I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I wish they would've traded him to Atlanta this season when they had the chance. He has a sub .500 record for his career and has been pitching career highs in innings/starts the past two seasons and even suffered from a "tired arm" at least once this season. I don't think he's going to get much better, but he's still better than most on the Reds starting staff at this juncture.

I hope Johnny Cueto gets a look. I was surprised he didn't get a call up late in the year when the rotation was depleted.

To be honest though, I think the Reds will use Milton's $9 million on picking up Dunn's option and Hatteberg (forgot that he had one). There are no arms to sign from the FA market, so don't be surprised if the Reds ship some talent to get talent. You are not going to get a top-shelf starting pitcher from any team for Gonzo, Freel & Ross. It's gonna take giving up someone like Hamilton or Votto to fetch a top-shelf starting pitcher and that's what the Reds need at this point if they hope to contend. Why did the Cubs emerge this season? Ted Lilly (career year this season) and Rich Hill (2nd full season in the bigs) stepping up to aide Zambrano. Even Jason Marquis won 12 games this year and had his lowest ERA since 2005.

With Jay Bruce in the wings, Hamilton can be dangled as trade bait.

Nobody is going to take Junior. We're stuck with him and that's not so bad since he's in RF now. Plus, if Hamilton is dealt, you have a solid playmaker/leadoff man in Hopper and if the teams goes south by midseason, the Reds could ship Dunn away and bring up Bruce.

Gotta give good to get good...Hamilton or Votto may be packaged with other vets like Gonzo, Freel & Ross for a top-shelf pitcher and a throw-in reliever.