[Cactus Jack]

At -10.5, this is the tightest of any of the 3/14 lines. Per ESPN, it opened at -11.5 and has went down. The other 3/14 lines are -14.5 (ISU), -15.5 (TTU), and -16.5 (Wisc.). It isn't as if the Over/Unders are way out of proportion either. Wisconsin is 152.5, Texas Tech's is 143.5, and Iowa State's is 143.5. Not the most encouraging signs, but we're still a pretty big favorite.

One of the most important things will be opening up strong. Don't want to give them confidence and put ourselves in a situation like the Arkansas game where the weight of the expectations seem to make us tense up. If it's close late... look-out.


They have a lot of continuity are a bit bigger than I expected, but don't seem especially deep. Teams playing tons of high leverage possessions usually rely on defending well, but KenPom actually has Kentucky considerably higher when adjusted for pace. I keep reading about how well they defend the two, how well they rebound, and how many turnovers they force (usually in that order) but it isn't as if we take tons of twos. The other two scare me a bit, but I doubt they are going to be able to dial up the type of athletic pressure that Alabama was able to roll out against us (sans Butler) or the kind of half-court pressure that rocked us at Ole Miss.


Looking at their Power 5 results:

In their game against Arkansas, they won on the boards (37/30), lost turnovers (24/14), and Arkansas shot 42-43% from the field and three. Their best player (Conerway) fouled out of that one and went 1/11 for 2 points.

In the Oregon game, the Ducks led 38-23 at half. Troy lost on the boards (38/31), were even on turnovers (17/17), and the Ducks shot 31% from 3 (on 22 attempts) and 51% from the field. Conerway finished this one with 7 points on 2-13 shooting.

In the Houston game, they trailed 33-11 at half. Troy lost on the boards (38/36), lost the turnover battle (12/10), and let the Cougars shoot 47% from three and 41% from the field. Conerway had 9 points on 4-9 shooting.

Kentucky obviously isn't Houston defensively, but you can see a bit of a trend-- the stats that they excel in really start to even out and Conerway, who is listed at 6'3, 180, seems to struggle. He had a decent enough stat line against Ole Miss in 2024 but it was a blowout. I don't see his luck changing as Butler or Oweh check him most of the game with Williams being able to clean up some mistakes.

This also seems like a game where you can hide a Brea, Perry, or Noah defensively and one where we can "out-athlete" them a handful of times. I expect big games from Williams, Oweh, and Butler (as long as he holds up). Speaking of: if Butler goes down, that will obviously take a lot of wind out of our sails.

This doesn't exactly have 2011 Princeton vibes, but I do see at as a game where both teams hit at least a couple of runs before Kentucky puts it out of reach late. Key to the game will be how well each team weathers the other's runs.