[Cactus Jack]

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I want to hear your analysis, Jack...

I usually try to look at Vegas' lines in the openers to get a feel on who is most likely to be upset. It obviously doesn't always come to fruition and I'll pick at least one or two games against their conventional wisdom, but, for instance, if every other game on the 5-12 seed line is between a 6.5 to 8.5 point spread and there's one that's only -2.5, I take a very hard look at taking an upset in that one.

I had mentioned in one of the other threads that I thought UC San Diego would be a trendy upset pick this season. This year didn't seem to have a huge bubble, and they were one of the few non-power conference schools who could have withstood a loss in their conference tournament but have still received a bid. I still like them.

Also mentioned McNeese and Yale in one of my previous posts but almost wonder if all of these schools are a little too trendy.

Drake is another team I'd mentioned before, but Missouri could be a bad matchup because of how much they score and how slow Drake wants to play. O/U is currently at 133.5, which seems to favor the Bulldogs. For all I talk about not liking teams playing slow with tons of high leverage possessions, Drake's use of this strategy is something that makes perfect sense.

High Point is getting some mention nationally, and I'm not really a huge fan of Purdue. Liberty is not getting a lot of love nationally (and plenty have speculated about why no major conference will touch them), but I like them to play Oregon close, even on the West Coast in Climate Pledge Arena.

I think at least two, but maybe three of the teams mentioned above pull off upsets.


South Region:

Iowa State has been banged up all year and they struggle with turnovers. Something about teams who press don't like to be pressed. Given, Chris Beard's Ole Miss squad looks like they'll be in good shape in that bracket. Could see them in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, or Final Four. Auburn got a really favorable draw. They'd owe Texas A&M one. Michigan could give them some problems because of their size, especially if they get the Tigers in foul trouble, but they could also join the Aggies in getting bounced in the first round.


West Region:

Florida and St. John's would be quite the styles clash if chalk holds. The winner of UConn/Oklahoma could be dangerous in the second round, especially if it's the Huskies. Memphis/Colorado State has a very weird line. Nothing would surprise me with Maryland. Bottom of the West has a bunch of good teams with visible flaws-- St. John's scoring, Texas Tech has problems on the interior and some bad losses, etc. Like the South, this bracket has a couple of really good teams and a pu-pu platter of others where anything goes.


East Region:

Duke looks like the class so long as Flagg is healthy and they get the whistles that we're used to seeing. Good luck to Mississippi State or Baylor playing them in Raleigh. Not sold on Arizona or Oregon and someone has to get to the Sweet 16. VCU/BYU could go either way. I like Alabama in the bottom so long as Nelson is healthy, but I'm not sure he will be. Both St. Mary's and Wisconsin could pose stylistic challenges for the Tide.


Midwest:

Houston has the fewest question marks of the #1 overall seeds but always gets bitten by the injury bug. Sampson is old school and the physical toll of his practices has been questioned. If healthy, they're a very safe team. They've played well against a tough schedule, they grade well in the metrics and no one they'd meet before the Final Four really scares me. Their toughest game before the Elite Eight may be in the second round. Not saying that they'll beat them, or even make it to them, but Illinois is huge and has some skilled shooters (think tall Euros & Canada's Will Riley), but with the way the Cougars trap up on (or "Monsters") screens, so the Illini has personnel to give them fits if they are moving the ball and making shots. I was impressed with Illinois a few times I saw them, but think I caught them on nights they looked good, because they seemed much better than their record indicates. Covered Kentucky elsewhere. Utah State beating UCLA would be a mild upset. I'm not sold on Tennessee. Don't trust Rick Barnes in March. I like Zeigler but the combo of he and Lanier is pretty small and thin.


Final Thoughts:

Auburn lost three of their last four, including their final two regular season games. The last team to lose their last two regular season games but win the championship was 2014 UConn.

My bracket has a lot of chalk from the Sweet 16/Elite Eight on. Picked all four #1 seeds to go to the Final Four for the time being. If I were to pick anyone else, Alabama, St. John's, and Texas Tech would be the choices. Think that this would have been an amazing draw for a fully healthy Kentucky squad.

I picked Auburn to win but don't feel anywhere near as confident as I did three weeks ago. Think that Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida are your best four, so the committee got those right. One of those four or Alabama will be your national champion.