[Cactus Jack]

Bringing this thread back now that the SEC Tournament picture is rapidly coming into focus.

Tonight's Games (3/4):
Texas A&M is about to vanquish Auburn. This does nothing to the Tigers' stranglehold on the #1 spot, but gives a huge boost to the Aggies in both SEC and NCAA seeding.
Mississippi State's loss to Texas will be Kentucky's gain, but I'd take a lower seed to avoid Auburn's bracket if at all possible.
Arkansas and Vanderbilt are in progress. At the half, the Hogs lead by 5. I've presented the standings on the assumption that Texas A&M and Arkansas hold on.

Tomorrow's Games (3/5):
Florida visits Alabama (-3.5).
Missouri (-4.5) visits Oklahoma.
Tennessee (-3.5) visits Ole Miss.


Current Standings:
1. Auburn (15-2)
2. Florida (12-4)
3. Alabama (12-4)
4. Tennessee (11-5)
5. Missouri (10-6)
6. Texas A&M (10-7)
7. Ole Miss (9-7)
8. Kentucky (9-8)
9. Mississippi State (8-9)
10. Vanderbilt (8-9)
11. Arkansas (7-10)
12. Georgia (7-10)
13. Texas (6-11)
14. Oklahoma (4-12)
15. LSU (3-14)
16. South Carolina (2-15)


This Weekend's Games (3/8):
Kentucky at Missouri
Mississippi State at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Georgia
South Carolina at Tennessee
Alabama at Auburn
Texas A&M at LSU
Ole Miss at Florida
Oklahoma at Texas


Outlook:

Right now, Kentucky sits at #8. Lose to Missouri and they are still probably #8.

Even assuming that Ole Miss loses to Tennessee tomorrow, the school in Oxford that needs a new mascot still owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Same if Ole Miss loses to Tennessee and Florida while Kentucky loses to Missouri (unless three or more teams are involved in the tiebreaker).

If Kentucky beats Missouri and they may still be #8, but the #6 or #7 is within reach. Getting the #6 or #7 means being split from Auburn, and that's a pretty big deal to me. Even the #5 isn't mathematically impossible. They'd need Ole Miss to lose out, Missouri to lose out, and/or Texas A&M to lose to LSU-- those go from "more likely than not" to "not shocking" to "shocking" in terms of probability. Even the #5 isn't mathematically impossible, but we'd need all of what I just mentioned to happen.


Of the top four or five seeds, I would love to be in a bracket with Tennessee. Aside from that, the only match-ups I'd really like are South Carolina, LSU, Texas, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, in that order. Think we probably beat Arkansas in a rematch, but wouldn't feel great about predicting any result there (though them blowing us out doesn't seem as likely as a close win either way).

Would rather have third shot at Alabama than give Florida a rematch, but I don't know that there's a huge difference in playing either in a one-off on a short turnaround. Would feel better in a best of seven against Florida, but think that Alabama is more prone to a single upset given the tempo they play at and how it could play in to what we might want to do.