[Gridiron_Raid]

Some of these are going to be listed in numeric order when on the same tier. The region's top team per current RPI will be listed, but the region's past success (~25 years) is also strongly considered.

Tier 1:
7th & 11th

7: St. X (.70)
11: Douglass (.72)

- Year in and year out, the two regions no one else wants to draw. Even their weakest representatives have beaten a few really good teams to get to there.


Tier 2:
4th, 6th & 9th

4: Clinton Co. (.68)
6: Butler (.66)
9: Cooper (.65)

- Good depth, so a district or regional upset won't tank their chances. The 4th tends to be the exception here if Bowling Green or Warren Central is upset and a school like Russellville isn't loaded. 6th always plays well and is always in the top half, but never seems to win it all. Up until roughly a decade ago, the 9th had a way of slowing things down so much that they kept everyone else in the game, but they've had really strong 15 or so years.


Tier 3:
8th, 10th, 12th

8: South Oldham (.66)
10: George Rogers Clark (.67)
12: Danville Christian (.68)

- Danville Christian has a nice mix of wins out (against non-region schools, away from home, etc.). The 12th isn't top-heavy, but I like them as much or more than any of the remaining teams. Think there's a mix of things that would prevent me from picking them to win it all, but think they could get there and cause anyone some problems if they play well and things break right. 8th and 10th have a little more depth than the rest of the regions-- tend to have schools closer to urban areas with larger student populations; that leads to more talent and fewer road trips to face quality competition in season.


Tier 4:
1st

1: Marshall (.71)

- It's tough for me to be a believer in a first region team not named Tilghman, because few have really had success. Usually see teams whose geographic isolation leads to everyone playing each other a bunch of times, which makes gauging them against everyone else even tougher. Would usually have the 2nd Region on this tier or higher, but they seem down this season and this is arguably the best team west of Bowling Green.


Tier 5A:
5th, 13th, 14th, 16th

5: Green Co. (.66)
13: Harlan Co. (.64)
14: Hazard (.70)
16: Ashland Blazer (.64)

- 5th Region usually begins and ends with North Hardin or Elizabethtown. There are teams with high RPIs and decent records, but I'm going to take a wait and see; schools who haven't been in decades can be tough to trust as favorites and it usually goes one of two ways when they get to Rupp-- they play like they're happy to be there or they seize the moment and play like they expect to win. 13th is usually the best or one of the top two mountain regions-- for the first time in awhile, there's not one team that's a runaway favorite there, so mileage may vary on the ultimate representative. Hazard has a really good record in the 14th and Al Holland has forgotten more basketball than I know, but I'll reserve judgment because I've seen the 14th Region hype train take off for so many other teams but few ever deliver-- think some of the best teams in the past 25 years were the late 90's Perry Central teams who got terrible draws. The 16th is to Kentucky high school basketball what Dak Prescott or Ryan Fitzpatrick is to NFL quarterbacks-- good home records, don't really get blown out often, have some staying power even though they force you to play a certain style, and can get you to the point that a contender eliminates you. The Elliott County run around a decade ago was great though, wasn't it?


Tier 5B:
2nd, 3rd

2: Henderson Co. (.63)
3: Owensboro Catholic (.63)

- Typically the 2nd would be somewhere between Tiers 1 and 3. I've always thought that it was one of the most underrated regions. I would not at all be shocked if a Hendo or Madisonville North-Hopkins make me eat these words by ranking them so low this season. See some solid teams in the 3rd but would put them higher if I knew O'Cath would be there in the end-- very well-coached; don't know as much as I'd like about Daviess County. Both of these regions have a few schools that could be a stylistic nightmare for lots of the teams on the tier just above them.


Tier 6:
15th

15: Paintsville (.59)

- Put me on the spot and make me pick a region who'll lose their first game and this is my pick. Never a good sign for the strength of your region when teams have lots of losses to everyone else and all seem to play each other fairly close. I've underrated Pikeville in the past. Paradoxically, the 15th has probably had more legitimate championship contenders than any other mountain region over the past 25 or so years between Paintsville and Shelby Valley, but they've also had plenty of other years where they are one of the two or three weakest in the entire field.

When looking at the past 25 years, you ignore the prime time era of the 13th with bobby keith and also don’t give credit to recently. I ranked them based on this year, I don’t care about what they did before cell phones were invented. Looking at this year going back to 2019ish with the knox central era of dominance, the 13th is in B tier right below 4, 7, 11. Multiple D1 players and now SUPERSTARS, more on the way. And the 3rd best 13th region team was an inch away from beating moreno on his home floor. The past 25 years is what lowers the floor for the 13th, cause there was a stretch where they were F tier.