[Cactus Jack]

Kentucky's win over Tennessee tonight is the Vols' 5th loss. Their other three? At Florida, at Auburn, and at Vanderbilt.

We're going to find out a lot more about who the Vols really are in their upcoming stretch. They host Vandy, then have road trips to Texas A&M and LSU, a home game against Alabama, and a road trip to Ole Miss. After that, they host South Carolina and it's on to the SEC Tournament. I don't know that three losses is out of the question-- I suspect that they'd be an underdog against Alabama and if they're even favored, I doubt Vegas would give them more than a three points against Texas A&M and Ole Miss.


In terms of SEC Standings, Kentucky's game against Missouri just gained a lot of importance for seeding. With five conference losses (Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Georgia) and two more top five match-ups (Alabama and Auburn) remaining, there's no way we catch one-loss Auburn or Alabama. There's a slim chance that we catch three loss Florida and Texas A&M, but we at least own head-to-head tiebreakers. The Gators have a pretty favorable four game stretch coming up (South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma & Georgia) before ending with three tough games (A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss). The Aggies have a tough landing-- Arkansas, a now desperate Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, and LSU.

Ole Miss and Missouri's four losses in conference play leave them just ahead of the Cats for now. Tennessee (5 losses) is technically tied but loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with UK; Mississippi State (6) and Vanderbilt (6) are just behind.

The aforementioned school who should change their mascot ends the year with Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida in three of their last four but own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Missouri's only remaining games against ranked opponents are home dates with Alabama and Kentucky. The Tigers will have some landmines (Arkansas and Vanderbilt), but their remaining schedule is pretty manageable otherwise (Oklahoma twice, LSU, South Carolina, and Georgia).

Statistically speaking, I'd be very surprised if Kentucky could afford a loss to Mizzou but still expect to be seeded ahead of them unless you're counting on beating Alabama or Auburn and only losing one other game the rest of the way. Beating Alabama or Auburn head-to-head is nice for NCAA Tournament seeding, but is basically just another conference game for SEC seeding before you get to the third or fourth level tiebreakers.

Avoiding a letdown against Vanderbilt, LSU, and Oklahoma is going to go a long way in determining whether we're as high as #4 or as low as #9 going in, but expect the most high leverage game to be Missouri.