[Cactus Jack]

Updated as of the conclusion of games on 2/10-- part of these are where teams stand today, but part are the reality that some teams will boost their profile by winning their conference tournament while others (*cough* SEC *cough*) will beat up on one another and knock someone down a seed line:

1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Houston (Big XII #1)
Alabama (SEC #2)

2's:
Iowa State (Big XII #2)
Florida (SEC #3)
St. John's (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Illinois or Michigan St.)

3's:
Purdue (Big Ten #2)
Marquette (Big East #2)
Tennessee (SEC #4)
Illinois or Michigan St. (Big Ten #3)

4's:
Texas Tech (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #3)
Kentucky (SEC #5)
Kansas (Big XII #4)


Iowa State has been short-handed in some of their losses. Don't know that the public will notice the nuance, so sliding them down to the #2 line for the time being. Moving a "now getting the respect they deserve" Houston team onto the #1 line in their place. Kansas is sinking like a rock after their loss to Kansas State in a rivalry game.

Still can't see Texas A&M getting a top 4 seed right now. I know Lunardi has them as a #2 right now, but that is insanely inflated in my book. I won't go on another Purdue diatribe. If you need to know how I feel about them, re-read the above posts. Michigan State is still my pick to win the Big Ten, but I had to move them down after road losses to USC and UCLA. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt given the length and complexity of travel.

I don't want to put Kentucky in as #4 seed right now (their recent losses have dropped them to a high 5 until everyone's healthy), but I don't know that any other team has a great case ahead of them. UConn is good but their resume has it's warts too. Same for Gonzaga, who might not be the best team in their conference. There's lots of recency bias with Arizona-- started highly ranked, fell off, and now have a bunch of consecutive wins; they're still the same team that lost to a paper tiger Oklahoma and had to royally screw a short-handed Iowa State to win in overtime though. Ole Miss is a team who can play like a #3 or #4 on a given night (see: Kentucky & Alabama games) but they can also play like a low #5 or high #6 (see: three straight losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Missouri). Maybe Wisconsin or Maryland fits the bill, but I want to see more-- if I had to pick one of the two though, it'd be the Terps. That brings me back to a homer pick of Kentucky for the final #4 seed.

Kansas might not be the final #4 if the season ended today, but I'll bet on their tradition helping them find a way to end up there.

Arkansas has played their way in to the tournament, IMO. Still plenty of work left to do, but I think they're going to turn the corner and find their way into the First Four.