[Cactus Jack]

Updated as of the conclusion of games on 1/14:

1's:
Auburn (SEC #1)
Duke (ACC #1)
Iowa St. (Big XII #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)

2's:
Marquette (Big East #1)
Big Ten Champion (Michigan St.) or SEC #2 (Tennessee/Alabama)
Kansas (Big XII #2)
SEC #3 (Alabama/Tennessee)

3's:
Houston (Big XII #3)
UConn (Big East #2)
Kentucky (SEC #4)
Illinois (Big Ten #2)

4's:
Florida (SEC #5)
Oregon (Big Ten #3)
Gonzaga (WCC #1)
Memphis (American #1)


If the same team wins the Big Ten regular season and conference championships, I don't see them not getting a #1 or the highest #2 seed. Michigan State and Michigan look like the the top options there, even if their resume leaves plenty to be desired. Splitting the regular season and conference crown but performing really well in the other is going to be enough for a #2 at least.

Big XII race is shaping up nicely. Barring injury, I'd think Iowa State, Kansas, and Houston are all going to be on the #1-3 seed line at minimum. Houston is still a team that I expect to rise throughout the season. They only lost to Auburn by 5 in one of the Tigers' stiffest tests.

UConn looked like they'd rebounded until they took another loss this week. Marquette was taken to OT by a DePaul team that's 0-7 in conference play. St. John's will be in the tournament, but they'll need a win over one of those two (they play twice each) to have a shot at the 4-5 seed line.

Memphis may seem like an outlier. They've lost to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas State. They also have wins over UConn, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Clemson, Missouri, and UNLV. Given where the Mississippi schools and Michigan State stand at the moment, they'd probably be the last #4 or highest #5 if the season ended today.



SEC teams are going to keep beating up on each other. That's a recipe to get lots of team in and seeded well overall, but losses like the one Florida took tonight (to Missouri in Gainesville) are going to really hurt any individual team's overall metrics when evaluating seed lines and geographic preference. Road losses or losses to higher ranked teams won't hurt as bad, but losing as a home favorite will really hurt.

Right now, I'd think that the SEC could get 11-12 teams , with the total mostly being dependent on how many teams steal bids and whether a fringe team like an Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Texas has a huge upset and plays well in the conference tournament.

Auburn is a lock. Even if they lose out, you can't tell me that a team with wins over Iowa State, Houston, Purdue, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Memphis, and North Carolina doesn't get a bid. The biggest question right now is how long they'll be without Broome and what they'd have to do to lose their grip on the #1 overall seed in the field.

Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky might as well be locks. Biggest question for each of those teams is how they separate themselves from the others and what seed lines and geographic sites they'll land.

Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M are just outside of the above group, but will probably be there with a couple more wins. It's not time to start booking rooms, but considering their resumes and remaining schedules, the wheels would have to fall off.

That's 8 bids for 16 of the teams.

I think Georgia gets in. I've liked them as a plucky underdog but think they'll stumble plenty down the stretch, especially over the next few games, because they aren't the 23rd best team in the nation and are just going to get exposed, especially with Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, and Florida in their next four. At the same time, they have a lottery pick who is the unquestioned leader of the team and guy you run everything through. They're pretty well coached and already have a win over Kentucky, St. John's, and Oklahoma. Win most of the ones that they should and pull a mild upset or two to make up for the losses (even if it's over a Texas A&M, Mississippi State, or Missouri) and they'll be in.

Missouri has really helped their cause with a road win over Florida. They've also beaten Kansas and their losses are to quality teams (Memphis, Illinois, and Auburn). No debate as to whether they're even a bubble team today.

That's 10 bids for 16 teams. Here's where things get dicey.

Oklahoma should start worrying. While it's not time to panic quite yet, they are 0-3 in conference play and their biggest wins are Michigan and Arizona. Michigan was beaten by Arkansas and Wake Forest. Yikes. Double yikes when you consider that their hosting Kentucky (who'll be coming off a trip to Tuscaloosa) for a late mid-week tip might be a win they'll need to solidify a bid. Let's see how their three game stretch with Texas, South Carolina, and Arkansas goes.

If the season ended today, I'd say Oklahoma gets the 11th bid and the rest are in the NIT or watching from home.

Arkansas is firmly a bubble team at best. They've lost four straight in conference play, with the latest coming to LSU. Michigan is their marquee win, and there isn't anything past that. They've really dug themselves into a hole and need to do at least two of the following three if they want a bid-- a.) get two to three more true quality wins; b.) count on Michigan closing strong; and/or c.) play well in the conference tournament. They have more than enough talent to control their own fate, but we're familiar with Calipari and if they only get one of those, they'll be sweating coming Selection Sunday (unless the two to three quality wins are over Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and/or Kentucky).

Texas is in Oklahoma and Arkansas' shoes, but without big wins. Their biggest win is Syracuse or NC State. That isn't a tournament team's resume. The best thing that they have going for them is that Auburn, Tennessee, and a trip to College Station are in their rear-view mirror. They have Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in their next five. They need to win at least two of those, then take care of business (read: get at least two wins) against LSU, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt if they want to stay in the discussion. Past that, they'd need to to count on pulling off both a major and a couple of mild upsets.

LSU has an SEC win, but it's over Arkansas. South Carolina and Vanderbilt don't have tournament resumes either. I won't go into the work any of those have to do until they do some of it first.