[Cactus Jack]

I'm starting to think that the field expands to 14 before 16. If it doesn't, then SEC and eventually Big Ten teams will probably de-emphasize their conference championship or the path you take to get there.

Here's what the conference championship games did for each of the SEC & Big Ten teams:

Georgia took a 2nd loss to Texas and lost their starting QB in the process. Not saying they'd have beaten Notre Dame with him, but you'd think they'd be able to score more than 10 points.

Texas took another loss to Georgia. Their kicker missed 42 and 51 yard field goals and is 4 of 6 since missing a 48 yarder and a 38 yard walk-off against ASU. The Georgia loss gave them a game with #12 Clemson and a favorable 2nd round match-up against Arizona State, so it's not as if it really destroyed them. Given that the semifinal is in Dallas, it honestly worked out pretty well for them getting the Oregon-Ohio State winner there.

Oregon held on to the #1 overall seed by beating Penn State. They were rewarded with a bye and the winner of #8 Ohio State and #9 Tennessee. With a loss to Penn State, Oregon is #5 and gets Clemson coming cross-country to them, then Arizona State in the Rose Bowl. That’s more like the path they should have had at #1.

Penn State is probably the conference championship game participant who most benefited from their game. Playing close to undefeated Oregon probably gave them some confidence and ensured that they’d be no lower than #8.


Obvious beneficiaries of their conference championship games are: teams who needed a win to be in (Clemson, Arizona State); teams who would have been further exposed (Indiana); underdogs who possibly couldn't afford another loss (Tennessee).

Ohio State is so hot right now, I don’t think you can argue. They avoided a rematch with Oregon and seem to have had enough to time to regroup from a bad loss to a rival.


Why I think all this matters and where I see this going:

The SEC was in a tough spot this year with scheduling this season and is probably going to be one of the loudest voices for changing the seeding format or bracket. The best argument for revamping seeding will be that none of the top 4 seeds advanced past the first round.

This year, the committee seemed to reward the “most deserving” teams, but those and the “best” teams are two very different things. If we’re looking at the best teams, OSU, Tennessee, Indiana, and SMU are not seeded #8-11, respectively. SEC fans will look back and laugh if Texas beats Ohio State then stomps Notre Dame in the final, but if the Big Ten continues to have success, the calls for their teams being “deserving” are only going to grow louder.

The most likely quick fixes are allowing only one automatic first round bye for the non-SEC/Big Ten teams, an NFL-style re-seeding of the playoff field after each week, and/or also having the 2nd Round played on-campus.


Where this gets really interesting is if the bracket/seeding format mostly remains as-is. If so, the SEC is going to have to have to claw for everything they get for awhile. SEC teams beat up on one another all year-- the conference is just deeper than the Big Ten (even if you remove their two extra bottom feeders padding records). With eight conference games, unless you want to have a “top eight plays the bottom eight” type schedule that’s basically gerrymandered, it’s impossible for teams not to have a loaded schedule. It’s also a myth that SEC teams don’t play anyone in non-conference games***. As weak as Big Ten teams seem to think SEC teams have become, I doubt any are going to be running away from their cushy schedules and toward the possibility of a loss.


If things stay put, the SEC likely either:

1.) pivots and tries to schedule as many cupcakes from the ACC and Big XII as possible and alters their rule about having to play at least one out-of-conference game against select teams; or

2.) looks to expand by adding two more teams, ultimately having at least two divisions so that there’s more parity in scheduling.

One of those things is much less salacious than the other. The first depends on those teams actually wanting to schedule SEC opponents and the networks being willing to give up some big games in Weeks 1-3.


There’s a possibility that the SEC goes to four divisions, with each division having a winner and common non-divisional opponents in an NFL format. What better way to make sure there are four SEC teams in than just having each as the winner of their division, with head-to-head records letting two teams from the same division get in to the exclusion of another divisional champion?


If expansion, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina State, and Virginia Tech are all strong possibilities, as Sankey has made it known that he wants the SEC to remain in contiguous states. By that point, the Big Ten has absorbed anyone who mattered in the Pac 12 and likely adds the academic schools from the ACC (UNC, Duke, and Virginia) and the SEC has taken the best of what was once the Big XII and the best to middle of the ACC, meaning it’s no longer “SEC East” and “SEC West”, it’s “SEC/Big XII” and “SEC/ACC”.

I could see the SEC being hesitant to give Florida State and Miami a lifeline—Florida would be against either, there are marginal returns on adding those markets, and adding another program good enough to just beat up on everyone else before their non-playoff team’s players opt out of bowl games (that they lose) only worsens the situation that got us here. Also, if only one of the two is added, the other likely pushes for the Big Ten or Big XII, and letting either get too big and expansive for their own good is a winning strategy in the end.


What’s most likely in the end is a combination of all of those. Whether it’s paying players, absorbing other leagues (AFL merger), only giving the top team from each conference a bye, divisional scheduling and seeding, re-seeding the playoff brackets each round, or giving home field advantage deep into the playoffs, you’ll notice that most of everything basically ends up being a watered down version of “let’s do what the NFL does”.



***SEC non-conference games this season:

Vs. Playoff Teams:
Georgia vs. Clemson, Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, S. Carolina @ Clemson, Miss. State @ Arizona State

Vs. Bowl Eligible Teams:
Texas @ Michigan, LSU vs. USC, Miami vs. Florida, Oklahoma vs. Tulane

“Looked Okay When It Was Scheduled Years Ago”:
Alabama @ Wisconsin, Oklahoma vs. Houston, Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State, LSU vs. UCLA