[Cactus Jack]

If OKC is the top seed in the West at the end of the season, then SGA will have a shot at the MVP.
 
Assuming that Jokic continues to perform at his current level, I don't see anybody else, with the possible exception of SGA, seriously contending for the MVP this season. Jokic had his 13th triple-double of the season last night, with 36 points, 22 rebounds, and 11 assists. He also had 4 steals. Westbrook also had a perfect triple double last night, with 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, on 7-7 shooting and no turnovers. Jamaal Murray also had 10 assists, which made it the first NBA regular season game since 1982 in which three players on the same team had at least 10 assists.

Jokic's current stats:

PTS: 31.0 (3rd)
REB: 12.9 (3rd)
ASSISTS: 9.5 (3rd)
STEALS: 1.8 (5th)
FG%: 56.3 (13th) 
3P%: 48.9 (1st)

SGA's current stats:

PTS: 31.0 (2nd)
REB: 5.6 (68th)
ASSISTS: 6.2 (20th)
STEALS: 1.9 (3rd)
FG%: 52.3 (24th)
3P%: 34.4 (128th)

Based on stats and his importance to his team, the MVP is Jokic's to lose. If voters decide to take team success into account and Denver does not climb into one of the top 4 seeds, then SGA, Jason Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, or Karl Anthony Towns could go home with the MVP. 

For Giannis to have a shot, Milwaukee would need to finish higher in the East than Denver does in the West, IMO, and I think that is unlikely to happen.

Very thorough breakdown. Agree with the vast majority of your points. Just wonder if there's some fatigue in MVP voting.

Jordan only won it a total of five times; Lebron 4, Magic 3, Bird 3, Duncan 2, Kobe, Shaq, and Hakeem 1 apiece-- those are all players who only need one name for recognition and are the best of the modern era.

Kareem has 6, Russell has 5, and Wilt has 4. That covers everyone with four or more.

Jokic already has 3 of the last 4. Whether it should matter or not, I think that Jokic might need to run away with it or risk voters either wanting to give it to someone else and/or thinking too hard about what putting him in the company of only Kareem, Russell, Jordan, Wilt, and LeBron means for the history of the game.

That said, Shai is the only player whose odds are currently in the same stratosphere. Giannis (+500) is within striking distance but isn't exactly close (and he already has two of his own). Tatum (+1100) is a really long shot. Wembanyama (+6600) is even further, and probably at least a year away).

If it's purely individual and team performance, Denver's early schedule hasn't been cupcake city, but it will get tougher as the year wears on-- they still have the Celtics, 76ers, Mavericks, Bucks, Thunder, Lakers, Wolves, Suns, and Spurs at least twice.