[Cactus Jack]

Rating the conferences from top to bottom as of today (early AM on New Year's Eve, when most teams have only 1 non-conference game remaining):

1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big Ten
4. Big East
5. ACC


SEC has the best team (Auburn), two more teams that are legit top 10 (Alabama and Tennessee), and a handful of others who are legit top 20-25 (Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida). If everyone stays healthy, I think you probably see Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Ole Miss in the Top 25 or just outside and "receiving votes" for most of the season. Georgia and Texas are good enough to crack the top 25. I've been talking about how underrated Georgia seems, but they also have a really brutal schedule-- they play seven straight games against ranked teams to open conference play and then five of their next eight games are against ranked teams. Given that, most probably aren't going to hear about how good they could be unless they pull off a couple of upsets. Overall, I think the SEC gets ten (10) bids to the Big Dance, depending mostly on bid thieves. 12 bids just seems too ambitious, though anywhere from 9 to 11 wouldn't shock me.


Big XII has Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, and a bunch of really solid teams. Think that getting a #1 seed, one of the middle #2 seeds, and one of the high #3 seeds is certainly possible. Right now, the metrics love the conference, with them having 3 of KenPom's Top 9 (the SEC has 4). Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all top 25-type, tournament teams. That's six (6) bids and they'll probably get one or two more out of Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, etc. as well. I have them ahead of the Big Ten because their top three or so teams outweigh the overall depth in the middle of the B10's giant pack.


Big Ten doesn't have a premier team. They're deep, but I wouldn't even feel confident saying "I don't know who it will be, but one Big Ten team makes the Final Four". Oregon is good and historically have some great seasons where they peak late and upset their way through the West Region. Because of the travel logistics involved with them and UCLA having to visit places like Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc., I don't know that they'll be able to avoid an extra loss that could end up knee-capping them when it comes to seeding. Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State are all tournament quality teams. The computers (KenPom, etc.) actually have the Wolverines above everyone right now. That's seven (7) bids so far. Maryland and Wisconsin would be in if the season ended today. Nebraska, and probably Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana are all tournament or bubble teams. 10 bids isn't out of the question, but I don't think 7 is either, especially when top teams start losing to lower teams during cross-country trips.


Big East is pretty top-heavy. Marquette is a legit top 10 team. UConn is a top five team in games where Hurley hasn't pushed the refs too far. I see the league getting at least one of the #2 seeds and one of the #3 seeds. St. John's has a nice resume and probably has already done enough to ensure that they don't get left out two years in a row so long as they don't completely implode the rest of the way; the way that Georgia and Baylor finish will mean a lot to them. Creighton should also get in. That's four (4) bids so far, with five (5) total being their floor. Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Xavier, DePaul, and Butler are bubble type teams who could play their way in. Butler had a huge stretch of games with four fairly close losses to Houston, Wisconsin, Marquette, and UConn in a five-game stretch; I'm guessing that this keeps them out, but it goes to show that they can play with anyone.


ACC has Duke as one of the top teams. I'm not entirely sold on a Duke team that doesn't have a healthy Maluach, but they've got a very manageable conference schedule and a non-conference win over Auburn that will protect their seeding (as if the committee doesn't do that anyway). The importance of their wins over Arizona and Louisville are fading fast. Their two losses are to Kentucky and Kansas by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral floor, so those won't hurt them. Clemson is a tournament team. Past that, things get interesting. I think North Carolina plays themselves in, but they don't have much margin of error unless they want to count on playing well in the ACC Tournament. At least one, but probably two of the bubble-type teams like SMU, PIttsburgh, Florida State, Wake Forest, or Louisville making it in, as I can't see a major conference getting less than four (4) or five (5) bids.


Past the above, the following leagues have a chance at multiple bids:
Mountain West (2-3 bids): San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and/or Conference Champ
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Drake, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Murray St., and/or Conference Champ

If the West Coast Conference wants multiple bids, then Saint Mary's probably needs to win their conference tournament or at least beat a ranked Gonzaga in the regular season and have a strong showing otherwise.