[Cactus Jack]

Thought it'd be fun to do our own Bracketology with the top 16 or so teams. This will probably turn into a "top 16 seeds" and wherever we see Kentucky ending up. Here's my thoughts on where things would be if the season ended today-- these rankings are going to be heavily influenced by a few things, namely: how good I think the teams actually are, the historical favoritism shown toward some schools (*cough* Duke), and an assumption of how a team finished in their conference. You'll see that I bumped up some teams like Houston or North Carolina on the assumption that they'll pick it up and knocked out (Purdue) or bumped down (Florida, Texas A&M) others who might not.


Regional Sites:
East - Newark, NJ
South - Atlanta, GA
Midwest - Indianapolis, IN
West - San Francisco, CA



#1 Seeds:
1. Auburn/SEC Champ (South)
2. Duke/ACC Champ (East)
3. Iowa St./Big XII Champ (Midwest)
4. Oregon/Big Ten Champ (West)

#2 Seeds:
5. Tennessee/SEC #2 (West)
6. UConn/Big East Champ (East)
7. Marquette/Big East Runner-Up (Midwest)
8. Houston/Big XII Runner-Up (South)

#3 Seeds:
9. Alabama/SEC #3 (Midwest)
10. Kansas/Big XII #3 (South)
11. Michigan State/Big Ten #2 (East)
12. Gonzaga/Top "Small Conference" (West)

#4 Seeds:
13. Kentucky/SEC #4 (East)
14. San Diego St./MWC #1 (South)
15. Mississippi State/SEC #5 (West)
16. UCLA/Big Ten #3 (Midwest)


***If anyone slips in to the above, then the ACC's #2 is a strong possibility. Hard to include five SEC and three Big Ten and Big XII teams without also including at least a 2nd from the ACC, but right now, SMU and Clemson don't really fit the bill. North Carolina currently has five losses, but they were to really, really good teams and they probably end up being the ACC's 2nd highest seed. Same logic goes for the Big East #3, don't know that St. John's has quite enough to get there (they've lost to Baylor and Georgia, and their 2 point win over Providence doesn't look good); Georgetown hasn't played anyone. 


If I had to include a #5 line and #6 line, I'd have:

#5 Seeds:
17. Baylor/Big XII #4 (West)
18. North Carolina/ACC #2 (Midwest)
19. St. John's/Big East #3 (East)
20. Dayton/A-10 #1 (South)


#6 Seeds:
21. Illinois/Big Ten #4 (South)
22. Florida/SEC #6 (West)
23. Drake/MVC #1 (East)
24. Michigan/Big Ten #5 (Midwest)


Considered Utah State for one of the final #6 seeds and think that the MVC Champion will be in the mix for anywhere from a 4-9 seed, depending on how dominant someone looks and whether or not they win both the regular season and conference championship. I assumed that they'd be runner-up to San Diego State and can't see the MVC getting two top 6 seeds.

West Virginia, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Creighton, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Memphis are some more non-SEC teams that will probably be in the discussion at various points. 

There's a lot of Big XII flavor, but their low-upper to mid-tier teams will have some nice opportunities to knock off some "good, but not quite championship level" teams and get resume building wins. The conference also would have looked much better on the whole if Arizona hadn't melted down against quality non-conference competition; if they get get hot in conference, it could hurt everyone's metrics and overall profile. West Virginia is a team that could really help itself out-- they already have wins over Gonzaga and Georgetown and get Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati and Arizona State at home. They have losses to Pitt (in a rivalry game) and Louisville (when Pryor was healthy) that won't grade well by metrics alone, but I could see the committee factoring that in if they finish well.



Regional Finals (if chalk):

East (Newark) -
1. Duke vs. 4. Kentucky (or 5. St. John's)
2. UConn vs. 3. Michigan State (or 6. Drake)

South (Atlanta) -
1. Auburn vs. 4. San Diego St. (or 5. Dayton)
2. Houston vs. 3. Kansas (or 6. Illinois)

Midwest (Indianapolis) -
1. Iowa St. vs. 4. UCLA (or 5. North Carolina)
2. Marquette vs. 3. Alabama (or 6. Michigan)

West (San Francisco) -
1. Oregon vs. 4. Mississippi State (or 5. Baylor)
2. Tennessee vs. 3. Gonzaga (or 6. Florida)


Above brackets would have some nice match-ups for the networks and fans-- and let's be real, the committee is going to look out for their brand and the networks first and fans after.

East is loaded with tradition and you've got the Kentucky/Duke/UConn storylines built in, and a Kentucky/St. John's match-up could make for one of the most compelling Sweet 16 games in recent memory.

South gives the easiest road to #1 overall Auburn, but you still have some name brands in Houston and Kansas. Having two Big XII teams that will play each other at least twice as the #2 and #3 seeds in the same region (to potentially meet in the Sweet 16) is unlikely to happen, but it makes more sense than almost anything else you'd come up with.

West is usually going to be your weaker bracket and if the SEC has two #1s or #2s, you can bet that at least one of them will be there and at least one, but probably two, of your West Coast teams like Oregon and Gonzaga are playing close to home.

Midwest might not have a blue blood contender or be filled with teams who score tons, but it's good top to bottom and other than UCLA at #4 or possibly Marquette at #2, I don't know that any of their other teams are near the "worst of" their seed line.