[Cactus Jack]

SEC is the best conference top to bottom, and right now it doesn't look like it's close. Don't know that this doesn't change during the year or that it isn't a bit of a perfect storm of: the league investing in coaching years ago, teams scheduling down, and a bit of luck, but I'll be clear: the SEC has some paper tigers.

Oklahoma is currently tied with Michigan with 2:00 left in regulation) is 10-0 and #14 overall. They have some nice wins, they don't have any that jump out at you (had discussed Arizona in another thread, and Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and Providence may be good, but they aren't setting the world on fire right now either). Even if they pull it out, every SEC team can't beat Michigan too.

Florida is also undefeated and sitting at #7, but they haven't beaten a team that's currently ranked (though beating North Carolina in Charlotte might as well be a top 25 type win). They were really good last year until the injury bug hit. I watched the North Carolina game and they are real, but they are NOT a top 5-8 type team-- they're a team that can beat a top 5-8 type team in the right match-up.

Ole Miss will probably be really good, but they're 10-1 with a loss to Purdue and their best win may be a 20+ point victory over Louisville. Like him or not, Chris Beard doesn't seem to make a habit of losing. But I think it's fair to say that they're untested at this point. Vegas gives them the 10th (of 16) best odds to win the conference regular season. They're likely a tournament team that gets some big wins with all the shots they'll have, but I think the consensus seems to be that they end up somewhere between the #6-12 seed line.

Vanderbilt has one loss (to Drake) but they've otherwise had TCU and their schedule has some bad Power 5 teams (read: 3-5 Virginia Tech and 5-7 Seton Hall) and a pretty soft schedule.

LSU may be great, but they haven't beaten anyone who was ranked at the time. One of their biggest wins is Florida State-- for reference, the Seminoles beat Northern Kentucky by 8 early in the season. They did beat Kansas State in Manhattan, so I don't want to eat my words later, but they're going to need to win some games in SEC play (and in the conference tournament) to get a bid.

Texas lost to Ohio State and UConn. If anyone can name a single coach or player on any other team that they've beaten without looking it up, I'll send you a cookie. Any takers on that, because I can't even tell you the city or state that some of their opponents are in if it isn't in their name, much less their mascot (Houston Christian, Chicago St., Mississippi Valley State, Delaware State, New Mexico State, & Arkansas Pine-Bluff are six of their nine wins.... Syracuse, NC State, and St. Joseph's are the other three).

Mississippi State blew out a then-ranked Pitt team. Like 90-57, straight-up beat down. Pitt beat Ohio State and West Virginia. Their only other loss is to then #17 Wisconsin by 6. I haven't watched, nor can I immediately glean anything from this result other than saying it's an outlier.

Missouri beat Kansas in a rivalry game. That's impressive. What isn't as impressive is an 11 point win over 6-5 Jacksonville State that is probably more indicative of what type of team you'll usually see with them.

Georgia has beaten Grand Canyon and St. John's-- those are pretty good wins. They beat Notre Dame, who doesn't have a great record, but their losses to Houston, Creighton, and Rutgers (who has a great freshman class) are ones that even some of the best teams could have taken in a one-off. Texas Southern is a #14-16 seed type NCAA team in lots of years, so that win is worth something as well. Their only loss is to a top 10-20 level Marquette team by 11 in the Bahamas. They might have the best resume of the mid to lower-tier SEC teams, but no one is really talking about them.

South Carolina REALLY helped the league's profile with a home win against Clemson in a rivalry game, especially considering Kentucky's loss to them. They're one of the teams projected to finish at or near the bottom of the conference and had lost to Xavier and a terrible (but somehow ranked) Indiana team. It may not seem like it to us, but I'd say that in terms of metrics (and what the data probably doesn't account for... i.e., long standing rivalries and the emotional aspect of games and scheduling), it's going to mean a lot to the computers when one of the better SEC teams is beaten by South Carolina. Same goes for teams who drop games to Missouri (who beat Kansas).


Blurbs about teams I haven't mentioned in detail:

Alabama: Legit. See the last sentence on Auburn below and then consider that they also get Kentucky and Mississippi State twice.

Auburn: Very Legit. I'll give them the best odds to win the conference regular season and tournament by far. Beat Houston in Houston (even though it's a "neutral site"). Beat Iowa State & North Carolina in Maui in back-to-back games. Crushed Ohio State. Only loss is to Duke by 6 in Cameron. By far the best resume in the nation right now. Tough conference schedule to get Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia twice, but it could be worse. If they stay healthy, they're a heavy favorite to reach the Final Four and can win the national title. If nothing else, some of the other contenders I like have some serious issues (Houston: always injured late; Gonzaga: always chokes; Marquette & Iowa St.: not quite there yet; Kansas: not the type of talent and dominance that you usually see in their championship teams; UConn: pressure of three-peating and Hurley's making officials hate him).

Texas A&M: Wins over Creighton, Rutgers, Purdue, and a then-ranked Ohio State mean they're a tournament team unless the wheels absolutely fall off. Probably going to wind up on the #4-9 seed line, but they have a nice resume. Don't see them as a threat to win the conference, but they'll pull a really big upset and beat the teams they should.

Kentucky: We talk about them plenty in every other thread.

Arkansas: Who coaches them? How does he feel about his team? I hear they get Texas, LSU, and Missouri twice. Pretty favorable to wind up anywhere from the #5-#10 line according to how they do against everyone else. They'll need a big win against an Auburn, Alabama, or Tennessee and another resume builder, but there's nothing in Cal's history to say he can't pull that off.

Tennessee: I'd rather have John Calipari coaching my team than Rick Barnes. Let that sink in.