[Cactus Jack]

SO, if you had to predict how many losses we'll have in reg. season conference play, how many do you say?

I'd say seven (7) losses in regular season conference play is the safest bet, but I don't think eight (8) or more is out of the question.

Think we'll go 4-2 or 3-3 against the teams we play twice. Out of the home and home with Alabama and Tennessee, not shocked if we lose both to one and split with the other. Even if we split with both, there's still a chance Memorial Magic will get us (they're sandwiched between A&M, Alabama, and at Tennessee.

Think we'll lose 1-2 more games at home. Most likely candidates for those are Auburn (who we play after trips to Oklahoma and Alabama), Arkansas (who we get after the trips to Vandy and Tennessee and with a trip to Ole Miss on deck), and one to Texas A&M or Florida (who we thankfully get early but we'll still be down Kriisa). If we're to have six conference losses or less, we'll need to do well in these games or there's no margin for error elsewhere.

Think we'll lose 2 more away games. There'll be a random loss at Missouri, Texas, Mississippi State, or Georgia and we'll have a tough one against Ole Miss and Oklahoma. Ole Miss will be up for the game and the Sooners could well be on the bubble or in need of a big win when they host us late; their biggest non-conference wins are over Arizona (who was ranked at the time but currently 4-5 with no resume wins) and Louisville (who is now 6-5 with a 20 point loss to Ole Miss & a team that is so banged up that you aren't optimistic that things get much better for them).


Given what we have on tap and that we'll be getting everyone's best shot, I don't think that the #5 or #6 seed is out of the question, but neither is the #2 or #3 seed. If we didn't have to play Alabama and Tennessee twice, I'd feel different. If we had another perimeter defender, I'd be much more optimistic.

Barring another injury, I'd take what we have today and going into the SEC Tournament as the #4 seed with the last double-bye if you gave me the option of taking that or just seeing how everything would play out from here.

Past that, I think the scenarios above (i.e., one more big time win against an Alabama or Tennessee, then some solid top 15 or top 25 wins) and a double-bye, followed by one win in the SEC Tournament is enough to get a three (3), four (4), or five (5) seed. That makes for a very manageable first round game, and think we take care of business there.

Had said before the season that making the Round of 32 would be a success and still feel that anything past that is gravy. At the same time, I feel much better about our chances of making a run to the Final Four than I felt when I'd made the initial post (and think that's probably the same for everyone).