[Old School Hound]

I have a bad feeling about this one.

Louisville and Kentucky aren't that far apart in terms of overall talent, but we'll be perceived as large favorite (even if the Vegas line is tighter) and Louisville can play loose and free because they really have nothing to lose.

Louisville isn't a picture of health right now. This was already a transitional roster that wasn't exactly seen as being flush with depth. Now they're without Pryor (ACL), Traore (broken arm), and Koren Johnson (shoulder). Even in the unlikely event that Johnson is back, he hasn't seen game action since early November.

Lately Kentucky hasn't shot the ball with the kind of consistency that they'll need to really make a run. It's much easier to grind out a game with a healthy Butler, but he seems to have a tendency to get in foul trouble even at full speed. Even if he's out there, there's still a chance he's a bit slower and prone to fouling.

I suspect Kentucky will look to switch a bit more defensively. Oweh will get the assignment against Edwards. We can at least see if we're able to hide Brea on Reyne Smith defensively. Could also see Pope trying a big line-up with and tries to funnel everything to the rim, at least for some stretches.

We have more depth than Louisville, but that isn't saying much. They do have some guys who can get really hot and just carry them for extended stretches, so it could be a disappointing evening if we have to spend Oweh on trying to contain someone that just goes off. Butler's situation means we likely have to look to Robinson (or even Chandler) to keep their secondary perimeter scorer in check for extended periods. With no Butler and Kriisa, I don't know how else you could get by with counting on anyone else to show any type of resistance to two legitimate scoring guards playing at a really fast pace.

If Williams has a big game, that's a very good thing for Kentucky's chances. Don't know that this is the kind of game that Carr will thrive in-- Louisville is going to be small and trying to drag him out onto the floor. Maybe he handles it well, maybe he doesn't. More likely that he gets plenty back on duck-ins but struggles if he has to really step out and go against quickness instead of being able to take a step back and wait on them to come to him. Carr is usually an awkward match-up for the opposition, but he won't be against Waterman. I could see this being a game where Garrison steps up and plays really well, but I don't like the thought of having to bank on him at this point in his career.

Ultimately think that knowing what we know at this moment, you favor Kentucky because Louisville is so beat up and we've been the better team on the season as a whole, but I also think that you could take the information we have today and simulate this game 10-20 times and get results all over the board.

I had a bad feeling when you(as Mankind) was on the top of that cage in the Hell in a Cell against Undertaker.  But Rupp will be no Hell in a Cell and Louisville is no Undertaker. Cats will win easily.

The only way U of L hangs around is if they are shooting lights out from distance. If they are not hitting their threes with a high percentage, KY will roll them.